The Investment Perspective, with Ninety One

The AI debate has moved past valuation and onto something harder to price: whether record capex converts into durable cash flow. From SpaceX's post-IPO wobble to China's cheaper models and the sector's circular financing, Anton du Plooy makes the case for why stock selection, not conviction on AI as a trade, will separate winners from losers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

For 20 years, buybacks and shrinking share counts boosted US equity returns. Sahil Mahtani argues that AI-driven IPOs and secondary issuance are set to reverse that trend, potentially dragging returns down. He draws a parallel to EMs in the 2010s, where a similar issuance wave eroded returns, but says that headwind for EMs is fading just as it builds in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jason Borbora-Sheen unpacks the first coordinated US-Japan currency intervention since 1998 and why a stronger yen won't hold unless Japan's real rates move. He argues the bigger signal is a global rate cycle that may be settling higher than markets expect, and explains how that's shaping a cautious stance in fixed income. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The US Federal Reserve held rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, but three dissents and a chair who won't give forward guidance left bond markets more unsettled than the decision itself. John Stopford explains why the confusion matters more than the vote, and what it means for positioning across bonds and equities.


Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The SARB's split decision to leave the repo rate at 7% caught almost every economist off guard, but Ruen Naidu argues the central bank's own scenario analysis tells a more nuanced story. He unpacks why a lower-for-now stance doesn't mean a dovish central bank, and sets out what the Fed's own hawkish pivot under its new chair means for global bond markets. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.