E267 - Adam Kaplan from Astralis Capital Management
On this episode of the Business of Betting Podcast, Jeff Edelstein is joined by Adam Kaplan, investor, operator, and long-time industry strategist working at the intersection of sports betting, DFS, prediction markets, and emerging gaming products.
Hear them discuss:
01:00 – How the pace of innovation since PASPA has completely reshaped the gaming landscape
02:00 – DraftKings & FanDuel’s decision to leave the AGA, what it signals, and why prediction markets are forcing operators to redraw alliances
03:15 – How big operators approach new products: build, buy, undermine… then build anyway and why speed now separates winners from laggards
04:50 – Who becomes dominant in prediction markets: PolyMarket, Kalshi, DraftKings, FanDuel, Robinhood and the power of cross-sell advantages
06:45 – Why everyone is entering prediction markets despite lower CAC/LTV economics and why public companies can’t afford to sit out
08:45 – Why land-based casino operators are staying away, and which companies are best positioned to launch direct-to-consumer prediction products
10:30 – Testing the boundaries: whether prediction markets will push into casino-style propositions and how regulators might respond
12:00 – The big question: Do prediction markets survive the courts? Will the fight reach the Supreme Court? What operators must hedge for.
13:30 – How investor pressure, stock performance, and regulatory risk are forcing operators to move quickly even without clarity on legality
16:00 – What PrizePicks could mean for U.S. market share, innovation cycles, and the next phase of digital gaming competition
18:50 – Emerging innovations bubbling under the surface: new gaming categories, regulatory interpretations, and tech-driven product shifts
20:15 – What the next 5–10 years might look like: consolidation vs. vertical specialization, crypto-integrated markets, and where Robinhood could disrupt the most
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