Odd Lots

This week has been a pretty wild one in markets. Some of the most popular trades of recent years — like going long software, crypto, or gold — suddenly collapsed. Of course, there are plenty of things you can point to as the proximate cause of the selloff. AI is now an existential threat to SaaS. Bitcoin has seen some unflattering headlines. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair stalled the debasement trade. But the way the market functions has also changed enormously, arguably leading to faster and more violent moves. On this episode, we catch up with Charlie McElligott, cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura, who explains just how much market mechanics have shifted, and talks about the flows and positioning he's seeing right now.
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The nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve obviously has big implications for markets. But it also comes with some interesting sociological questions too. What role does the Fed chair actually play in setting monetary policy? How do they communicate -- and influence -- members of the Fed board? How do they communicate to markets? What happens when someone who's been advocating major regime change at the central bank is now running it? And how do they balance independence with politics? In this episode, we speak with Richard Clarida, former Fed vice-chair and now global economic advisor to Pimco. We talk about what a Fed chair actually does and what we know about Warsh's policy stances so far, as well as why Clarida thinks there may be more volatility in the bond market as a result.
Read more:
Bonds Rally as Job-Market Angst Backs Fed Rate-Cut Outlook
Bessent Declines to Draw Line on Removing Fed Member for Policy
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China's dominance of the rare earths market is well known. This not only creates potential vulnerabilities for companies, should access to those rare earths ever get cut off, it also gives China significant leverage in trade negotiations right now. Of course, the issue is not that China is naturally endowed with more of these materials, but rather that, over the decades, it's built up an industrial ecosystem to mine and process them. So, is there any prospect of the US entering the arena in a way that's actually competitive? Our guest says yes. Heidi Crebo-Rediker is a senior fellow in the Center for Geoeconomics Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Earlier in her career, she was the US State Department's first chief economist. For the CFR, Heidi has undertaken an extensive study of the US position with respect to rare earths and developed a broad set of suggestions for how the US can actually compete. She discusses the resources we have right now, and the technologies and policies that could make the US competitive in this arena.
Read the report here: https://www.cfr.org/report/leapfrogging-chinas-critical-minerals-dominance/
Read more:
Why China’s Grip on Critical Minerals Is So Hard to Break
EU to Offer US Critical Minerals Partnership to Check China
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In the 90s, there was a lot of talk about how the Internet would be a liberalizing force in the world. Bill Clinton famously predicted that it would be impossible for China to lock down the Internet, and that this would have profound effects on domestic politics. Of course that didn't come true -- China has done a remarkable job of controlling what gets behind the firewall. But then furthermore, the Internet hasn't had the liberalizing effects in the US either. On this episode of the podcast, we speak to Yi-Ling Liu, the author of the fascinating new book The Wall Dancers: Searching for Freedom and Connection on the Chinese Internet. The book traces the rise of the Chinese Internet, and how its users navigate the "dance" between freedom and censorship. She talks about the early visions for the Internet in China, and how over time it became a hotbed of nationalism. We discuss what's similar and different, and also what happens when users in both countries are given the opportunity to easily make contact withe each other on social media.
Read more: China AI Hardware Firms Trump Internet Giants in Growth Outlook
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Utilities analysts are having a moment as the energy sector gets a boost from AI. With an extra 94 gigawatts forecast to be needed by 2030 to power all these new data centers, energy investment has become a hot play as investors take a "picks and shovels" approach. But one long-time analyst says that — from a utilities perspective — we're already set to overbuild capacity by twice as much as is needed. On this episode, Andy DeVries, co-head of investment grade credit and head of utilities and power at CreditSights, talks to us about the math behind his infrastructure overbuild analysis, who has been making money (so far) from the data center boom, and what we already see playing out in the credit markets.
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