Moving Markets

Despite US consumer confidence falling to a record low, the S&P 500 extended gains last week, driven by semiconductors, as AI enthusiasm remains strong and crowded. Global equities also advanced, led by Europe and Japan. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair, while Governor Waller emphasised inflation risks. Middle East tensions remain volatile, with shifting ceasefire prospects, US military action, and moves in oil, gold, and bonds. This week, focus turns to US PCE inflation, growth data, and key geopolitical meetings in Asia. Damian Ng, Next Generation Research, talks about why the recent outbreak of the Ebola virus demonstrates the need to invest in health system innovation, as well as covering key investment trends in healthcare.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(05:48) - Why Ebola demonstrates the need to invest in health system innovation: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research

(12:05) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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The petrodollar system has long been a cornerstone of global finance, underpinning the US dollar’s dominance for decades. But as energy markets shift, and talk of de-dollarisation grows louder, is this system now fading? And what could that mean for the future global order?
In this episode of The View Beyond, Jan Bopp is joined by Julius Baer’s currency strategist, David Meier, and Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, to explore the origins and evolution of the petrodollar system, the impact of the US shale oil revolution, and the practical realities of de-dollarisation. The discussion covers the shifting correlation between oil prices and the US dollar, the significance of Saudi Arabia’s move to accept multiple currencies, and why the US dollar’s dominance remains largely unchallenged despite headlines. The episode also examines the scale of non-dollar oil trade, the role of sanctions, and the structural factors underpinning reserve currency status.

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:53) - What is the petrodollar system and why has it mattered?

(02:44) - Geopolitics and the petrodollar narrative

(03:40) - Has the petrodollar system ended or evolved?

(04:33) - The US shale oil revolution

(05:02) - Oil prices and the US dollar

(08:00) - Saudi Arabia and the rise of multi-currency oil trade

(09:02) - Sanctions and non-dollar oil markets

(09:59) - De-dollarisation or diversification - what’s really happening?

(11:52) - Why less oil in dollars doesn’t weaken the dollar

(13:46) - What could truly challenge the US dollar’s dominance?

(15:33) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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Markets remained choppy as weak PMI data across Europe and the UK signalled slowing growth, while US data painted a mixed but still resilient picture. Oil prices were volatile amid shifting headlines around Iran, underlining ongoing geopolitical sensitivity. Equities in both Europe and the US ended modestly higher despite intraday swings, with pockets of strength in sectors like satellites and quantum computing following fresh investment momentum. Overnight, softer inflation in Japan supported Asian markets, while US yields edged lower and the dollar held firm. Today, we were joined by Bence Boldvai from our FX & Precious Metals team, who shared insights on key themes this week, including USD/JPY dynamics and his take on metals.

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European and US stock markets rallied yesterday after President Trump hinted that the US administration is in the final stages of an agreement to end the war with Iran. The 10-year US Treasury shaved 9 basis points off the previous session’s yield. Asian markets were further boosted overnight by an impressive set of results from NVIDIA. Warnings did come in from the Fed though, in the form of the minutes of its last meeting, which revealed a heightened level of disagreement about where rates should go next and a majority of participants highlighting that rates will need to rise if inflation runs persistently above 2%. Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, Norbert Rücker, joins today’s podcast to discuss not only the outlook for oil and energy prices, but also to explain why he is so constructive on the theme of Clean Energy. Tune in to find out more.

(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(00:49) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(08:11) - (Clean) energy update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(13:33) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

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US markets dipped amid rising long-term bond yields, with the 30-year Treasury hitting the highest level in almost two decades fuelled by inflation fears and potential Fed tightening. Geopolitical tensions and key upcoming catalysts, including Nvidia’s earnings and FOMC minutes, keep investors on edge. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains what is behind the recent surge in bond yields and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, discusses the implications for equity markets and outlines his key message for the second half of the year.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(00:49) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(06:13) - Fixed income strategy update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(09:23) - Equity strategy outlook: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(14:14) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

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