Moving Markets

The S&P 500 snapped its nine-day winning streak yesterday, as renewed tensions in the Middle East dented risk sentiment, and momentum in the AI-driven rally eased. At the same time, bond yields pushed higher on the back of resilient labour market data, reigniting concerns that inflation pressures may persist. In today’s episode, our Group CIO Yves Bonzon shares his latest perspectives on the market backdrop, while Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, explains why he expects oil prices to trend lower from here.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(05:42) - Latest market perspectives: Yves Bonzon, Group CIO

(14:15) - An update on oil: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(19:13) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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AI fever is fuelling a fresh wave of market excitement, with soaring valuations and high-profile endorsements pointing to the next potential trillion-dollar tech company. With major players doubling down on artificial intelligence, investor confidence remains resilient despite rising eurozone inflation and mounting expectations of another ECB rate hike. Meanwhile, Afonso Borges from our Fixed Income Research team makes the case for UK gilts amid shifting bond dynamics, while Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research, explores the broadening strength in emerging market equities and explains why it’s not only about tech.

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(06:25) - Fixed income update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research

(10:12) - Emerging market equities: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research

(14:13) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

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Markets were mixed yesterday, with Middle East tensions driving a sharp rise in oil and weighing on sentiment. European equities edged lower, while all three major US indices reached fresh highs, supported by strong momentum in AI-linked names. Macro data showed a divided backdrop — resilient manufacturing in Asia, slowing growth and rising cost pressures in the Eurozone, modest but improving trends in Switzerland, and solid momentum in the US. Today, we were joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who provided a deep-dive into cybersecurity, highlighting the sector’s remarkable rebound and why it is becoming increasingly mission critical, even more so in the age of AI.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(06:58) - What's behind the cybersecurity rebound?: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation

(10:17) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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US equity indices closed the week at new record highs, topping off a winning month as tech stocks once again provided the momentum. Despite no agreement emerging between the US and Iran, and indeed continued strikes over the weekend, many of Asia’s key indices also saw gains this morning with the Kospi and Nikkei 225 soaring to new heights. It’s therefore timely that Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the podcast today to discuss his thoughts on whether US equities are now overbought; why a previous laggard sub-sector might now help drive the IT sector even higher, and whether mega IPOs have historically lived up to their hype.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(01:20) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(07:15) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(11:00) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

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After a period of relative calm, gold has re-emerged as a focal point for investors amid geopolitics, shifting central bank strategies, and evolving global demand. How should investors interpret gold’s recent volatility, and what does the outlook hold as we move through 2026?
In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets:The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, and Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia at Julius Baer, to discuss the drivers behind gold’s remarkable run, the impact of central bank activity, and the changing dynamics of investment demand. The conversation covers gold’s behaviour during recent global shocks, the significance of central bank buying (and selling), the evolving role of ETFs, and the influence of Asian and Indian markets. The episode concludes with an outlook for gold through the remainder of 2026, highlighting both the structural and cyclical forces at play.

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:21) - Lessons from recent events

(03:08) - The role of geopolitics in gold’s long-term performance

(04:15) - Central bank buying

(06:16) - A multipolar world and central bank strategies

(07:10) - Investment demand and the shifting role of ETFs

(09:15) - US monetary policy

(10:45) - Trading trends in the US and China

(12:51) - China’s investment flows and retail participation

(13:44) - India’s import tax hike and its impact on gold demand

(15:57) - Outlook for gold in 2026

(18:28) - Closing remarks and legal information

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