Moving Markets

Investors grapple with rising stagflation fears amid slowing growth and persistent inflation, yet optimism over renewed US-Iran peace talks has fuelled a broad equity rally, pushing major markets close to record highs. Banks are reporting booming trading revenues even as they sounded a note of caution about the ripple effect of higher oil prices. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses how major central banks may respond to the repercussions of the war and whether credit markets can benefit from the equity rebound.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(06:08) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(09:27) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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After an early sell-off, equities rebounded during the trading session following President Trump’s comments that further negotiations with Iran - and a potential deal - remain within reach in the coming days. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 moved back into positive territory for the year, while oil prices slipped below USD 100 per barrel once again. In today’s episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on cybersecurity and explains why we remain constructive on the theme going forward.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(07:08) - Cybersecurity in focus: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(10:41) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Last week’s market rally was driven by ceasefire optimism and a sharp drop in oil prices, lifting equities despite growing signs of economic strain and energy‑led inflation pressures, although US core inflation in March (excluding energy) remained contained. Over the weekend, geopolitical risks moved back to centre stage as failed US–Iran talks and an effective embargo on Iranian oil pushed energy prices higher, shifting markets into a cautious risk‑off stance. The earnings season begins in earnest today, with results set to test whether corporate profits can withstand rising costs and heightened uncertainty. Notable companies reporting today include LVMH and Goldman Sachs. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, highlights an improvement in market breadth in US equities, and explains why semiconductor stocks are in favour.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:39) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(08:52) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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The US and Iran have agreed to a two‑week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, but the deal continues to look fragile. Markets have reacted swiftly, with crude oil prices falling sharply while gold and equity markets rebounded. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, keeping energy supply risks firmly in focus. In this complex backdrop, how attractive is the current market risk‑reward, and how might the geopolitical landscape evolve from here?
Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, to assess the implications for global markets and China. They discuss whether investors should chase the recent rebound or stay defensive, the outlook for oil, gold, and the US dollar, and why China’s equity market has shown relative resilience. The conversation also covers China’s economic momentum, sector preferences, and the role of defensive, value, and high‑dividend stocks -- particularly Chinese banks -- in navigating ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainty.
This episode was recorded on 9 April, 2026.

(00:00) - A fragile ceasefire and the market rebound

(02:00) - Assessing the market risk-reward, geopolitical landscape

(04:44) - Has the USD/gold long-term trend changed?

(09:22) - How vulnerable is China to high oil prices?

(14:58) - Green shoots in China’s economy – signal or seasonal?

(19:05) - China’s consumption sector – staples vs discretionary

(24:02) - Views on Chinese banks

Equity markets are trading higher amid renewed optimism that the ceasefire will hold, reinforced by Israel’s signal that it is ready to enter direct negotiations with Lebanon. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to rebound following Wednesday’s sharp losses. Investors’ focus now turns to today’s US CPI data for March. In this episode, we are joined by Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, who shares his perspective on what lies ahead for the US dollar.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:45) - FX & metals update: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions

(10:00) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.