Moving Markets

Equity markets in Asia have followed their US peers lower this morning after President’s Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was issued on Saturday evening. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have responded that the Strait will remain closed until their power plants are rebuilt. They also warned that if Washington carries out its threat to obliterate their power plants, they will target energy anddesalination facilities in the Gulf. US Treasury bonds continue to see their prices fall, gold and silver are lower, and oil is trading on every headline. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, joins today’s podcast to wrap up last week’s key central bank decisions and provide his assessment of how they are tackling the increasing threat of inflation. Meanwhile, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his insights into the correction in equity markets, and also where he sees risk appetite remaining intact. Tune in for the details!

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(05:37) - Central bank meetings: David Kohl, Chief Economist

(11:36) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(14:21) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving a new wave of uncertainty, investors are watching central bank decisions and accompanying statements very closely. How are policymakers responding, and what does this mean for fixed income positioning?
In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Dario Messi, Julius Baer’s Head of Fixed Income Research, to discuss the week’s mammoth round of central bank meetings. The conversation explores how recent geopolitical developments are shaping inflation expectations, and the challenges that these pose for central banks. Dario shares his perspective on why a hawkish tone from policy makers is justified but may not necessarily translate into actual policy tightening. He also offers his insights for fixed income investors navigating the current environment.

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:13) - Takeaways from the Fed’s decision

(02:42) - Swiss National Bank and European Central Bank

(03:57) - Has the rate-cut narrative been derailed?

(06:40) - Will sounding hawkish translate into being hawkish?

(08:06) - Implications for bond markets and yield curves

(09:33) - Fixed income scenarios

(11:05) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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Equity markets turned choppy heading into the weekend, while oil prices cooled as investors weighed efforts by the US and Israel to ease concerns over the Iran war. Anxieties over hawkish central bank policies and upward pressure on rates also weighed on sentiment. However, the market continues to be very sensitive to any signs of potential de-escalation. Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, talks about gold and the impact of the oil price on currency markets and the US dollar in particular.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(05:50) - FX & metals update: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions

(10:49) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Equity markets are sliding and bond yields are climbing as oil and gas prices surge amid a new wave of escalation in the Middle East. At the same time, central bankers are holding their breath as inflation expectations edge higher. In today’s episode, we welcome Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who share their latest insights on the future trajectory of energy and precious metals prices.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:46) - Energy markets: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(11:29) - Precious Metals: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(14:57) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Global markets held up yesterday despite rising oil prices and escalating tensions in Iran, with European and US equities closing higher. Asian markets rallied strongly overnight, led by South Korea and Japan. More broadly though, investors remain cautious as sentiment cools in Europe and central banks prepare for key policy decisions. Today we’re joined by Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research Analyst, to discuss this week’s monetary policy decisions, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who brings us the latest on Swiss equities.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:36) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(07:12) - Bond market update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research

(10:39) - Equity market update - Switzerland: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(14:41) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.