Moving Markets

European and US stock markets rallied yesterday after President Trump hinted that the US administration is in the final stages of an agreement to end the war with Iran. The 10-year US Treasury shaved 9 basis points off the previous session’s yield. Asian markets were further boosted overnight by an impressive set of results from NVIDIA. Warnings did come in from the Fed though, in the form of the minutes of its last meeting, which revealed a heightened level of disagreement about where rates should go next and a majority of participants highlighting that rates will need to rise if inflation runs persistently above 2%. Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, Norbert Rücker, joins today’s podcast to discuss not only the outlook for oil and energy prices, but also to explain why he is so constructive on the theme of Clean Energy. Tune in to find out more.

(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(00:49) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(08:11) - (Clean) energy update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(13:33) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

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US markets dipped amid rising long-term bond yields, with the 30-year Treasury hitting the highest level in almost two decades fuelled by inflation fears and potential Fed tightening. Geopolitical tensions and key upcoming catalysts, including Nvidia’s earnings and FOMC minutes, keep investors on edge. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains what is behind the recent surge in bond yields and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, discusses the implications for equity markets and outlines his key message for the second half of the year.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(00:49) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(06:13) - Fixed income strategy update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(09:23) - Equity strategy outlook: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(14:14) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

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Global equities are caught between hopes for a peace deal and rising Middle East tensions, with Brent fluctuating around USD 100 per barrel. In the US, strong market breadth contrasts with weakness in technology stocks, weighing on major equity indices. Japan and Switzerland posted stronger-than-expected Q1 growth, highlighting resilience despite geopolitical tensions and high oil prices. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses India’s decision to double import duties on gold and silver.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:07) - The impact of India's new gold tariffs: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(10:16) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Global markets are kicking off the week on the back foot as government bond yields surge to multi-year highs, reigniting concerns about stagflation. Oil prices climbed another 2% overnight, with no quick resolution in sight for the ongoing Middle East tensions. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his outlook on whether US 10-year Treasury yields could reach the 5% mark. He also explains why the rally in semiconductor stocks may be due for a pause – and why that might actually be a good thing.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(01:01) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:08) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(10:59) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Despite geopolitical tensions, US equity markets have reached record highs, with artificial intelligence at the heart of this surge. What is driving these historic moves? How are investors positioning themselves to both capture the opportunities and manage the risks? 
In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, and Manuel Villegas, Co-Manager of the Julius Baer Next Generation Equity Fund. They explore the rapid development of AI, the unprecedented growth in data centre infrastructure, and the evolving dynamics of the global value chain. The discussion covers the shift from AI training to inference, the critical role of memory and hardware, bottlenecks in data centre buildout, and the implications of rising capital expenditure by hyperscalers. Their conversation also examines the international nature of the AI value chain, the impact of regulatory and supply constraints, and the outlook for investors as monetisation accelerates across the sector.

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:56) - AI's impact on the tech landscape

(03:56) - Hardware vs. software

(05:22) - Capturing the AI infrastructure super cycle

(09:01) - Data centre bottlenecks and constraints

(10:43) - Inflationary pressures

(13:27) - The politics of data centre construction

(14:52) - Hyperscaler earnings

(18:16) - How AI investments are translating into tangible revenues

(19:49) - Performance, positioning, and valuation

(20:53) - Winners, sector rotation, and the importance of Asia's supply chain

(23:16) - The global nature of the AI value chain

(24:22) - Scenarios for cloud computing and AI

(24:56) - View on sub sectors for remainder of 2026

(27:11) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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