Moving Markets

US markets closed lower on the day, and the week, on Friday but the S&P 500 is still only 5% off its all-time high. The US military struck Iran’s Kharg Island on Friday but as yet they have not targeted the oil infrastructure. President Trump is now calling for a coalition of countries to send ships to help escort cargo through the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices a little lower again. China and Hong Kong’s equities have rallied this morning as have South Korea’s, and futures point to a positive start to a central bank ‘super week’. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why 200-day moving averages are a key factor to watch in attempting to determine where markets might go from here, but at the same time it is important to focus on market breadth. Tune in to hear more.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(05:28) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(09:18) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

As the conflict in Iran continues to drive oil prices higher and unsettle global markets, investors are assessing the implications for Asia and China. Meanwhile in Beijing, the annual Two Sessions meetings have just concluded, outlining policy priorities and economic targets for the year ahead.
In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management. They discuss how geopolitical tensions are affecting Asian markets, their key takeaways from the Two Sessions, the outlook for Hong Kong versus A-shares, and the case for renminbi appreciation. Looking further ahead, they also examine the lessons from Japan’s balance sheet recession framework for China.

(00:00) - Can Asia and China markets weather the storm?

(03:14) - Hong Kong markets vs A-shares

(07:40) - Key takeaways from Two Sessions

(11:19) - Is the RMB appreciation trend set to continue?

(16:08) - Lessons from Japan's balance sheet recession framework for China

Global markets endured another turbulent session as escalating tensions in the Middle East, including aggressive rhetoric from both Iran and the United States, drove oil prices higher and fuelled risk aversion. European and US equities extended their declines, with energy stocks bucking the trend. Strong US macro data contrasted with the geopolitical gloom, but new US trade investigations under Section 301 added to uncertainty. Private credit concerns also intensified, weighing heavily on major alternative asset managers. Asian markets traded lower overnight, gold slipped despite its safe‑haven appeal, and investors now turn their attention to a packed economic data agenda. Joining our show today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, for the latest on currencies and metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(06:28) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva

(10:41) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Tuesday’s rally in European stocks proved short‑lived as surging oil prices and renewed concerns over potential rate hikes unsettled investors. In contrast, US markets were more composed yesterday, with the tech‑heavy Nasdaq even managing to post a modest gain. Asian markets are trading lower today after Brent crude climbed above USD 100 a barrel amid fresh geopolitical escalations. In today’s episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his insights on aluminium and the potential disruption shaping the outlook for the market.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:50) - Aluminium update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(10:32) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets reacted to volatile geopolitics as hopes of a swift resolution in the Iran crisis clashed with heightened military tensions. Strong gains in European equities and a sharp drop in oil prices highlighted a session defined by fragile optimism. With central banks watching inflation and safe havens like gold and the Swiss franc holding firm, uncertainty remains. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research at Julius Baer, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Julius Baer’s Equity Strategy Research team, discuss how recent geopolitical developments are shaping global bond and equity markets and how investors can navigate markets amid the fog of war.

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(06:06) - Fixed income market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(10:25) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(15:36) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.