Moving Markets

With the US 10-year treasury yield recently crossing the 5% threshold and the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance, bond investors are facing heightened volatility and a rapidly shifting landscape. Are higher yields a warning sign of greater risk, or do they present new opportunities for portfolio construction?
In this episode, Rishabh Saksena, Co-Head of Global Asset Class Specialists at Julius Baer, is joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research. Together, they dissect the drivers behind the recent surge in yields, the implications of monetary policy repricing, and the nuanced impact of a more hawkish Fed across the yield curve. The conversation covers duration preferences, the outlook for inflation and credit, the appeal of US investment-grade bonds, and the effects of increased bond issuance from sectors such as hyperscalers.
This episode was recorded on September 28, 2026.

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:22) - What’s driving the move in yields?

(02:42) - Investor concerns and opportunities in fixed income

(03:45) - Why a hawkish Fed can support parts of the bond market

(05:26) - Outlook for the Fed and interest rates into 2027

(06:23) - Duration preferences and the case for intermediate maturities

(08:35) - Appetite for longer-dated bonds and portfolio construction trends

(10:07) - Implications of a sustained 5%+ US treasury yield

(11:48) - Inflation risks and expectations for 2027

(13:00) - Is corporate credit still attractive at current valuations?

(14:24) - Impact of increased bond issuance from hyperscalers

(15:48) - Key takeaways for fixed income investors

(16:53) - Closing remarks

(17:34) - Legal information

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets endured a turbulent start to the fourth quarter as a global bond sell-off pushed US Treasury yields to their highest level since 2002 and intensified concerns over French public finances. European equities came under pressure, while US stocks recovered late in the session. Oil prices surged on supply concerns and geopolitical tensions, adding to inflation worries ahead of today's closely watched US payrolls report. In today's show, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the outlook for the US dollar, the euro and precious metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(07:03) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva

(11:32) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

European inflation surprised to the upside, driven by energy prices, while softer US inflation data offered some reassurance for markets. However, the bond market stress continued with Treasury yields rising, weighing on equities in their final stretch of the quarter. Asian markets opened Q4 positively, led by technology shares after Micron's strong revenue outlook. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares his insights about Asia and what he expects from the region in the final innings of the year.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(05:24) - Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong

(11:33) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Whilst the 30-year US Treasury bond yield rose for a sixth consecutive session, traders were calmed somewhat by comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams yesterday. Markets are now pricing in a 49% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, down from 71% on Monday. This didn't help US indices though: they all declined on the day. Asia saw stocks recover and there was encouraging factory activity data out of China. Today sees the release of the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Our Head of Fixed Income Research, Dario Messi, joined the podcast to explain what is driving higher yields, where he believes investors can find the best value now, and why he believes that a quality bias in credit portfolios is still warranted.

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:20) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income

(10:06) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Rising oil prices and higher bond yields are keeping inflation concerns front and centre, pushing US Treasury yields to their highest level since 2007. The AI investment boom remains in focus, highlighted by NVIDIA's record buyback announcement and Anthropic's S-1 filing, a precursor to an eventual IPO. Policymakers continue to balance inflation and growth concerns, with Australia tightening policy further and China signalling fresh support for its slowing economy. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, talks about the need of large cities to adapt to climate change, creating a very appealing structural growth outlook for the infrastructure and buildings value chains.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:00) - Adapting to a warmer world: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(10:48) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

£Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.