Moving Markets

With changing sentiment around Middle East tensions and a busy earnings season driving market moves, the Dow Jones recorded its fifth consecutive gain yesterday and a third straight record close. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both slipped, with the latter weighted down by declines in SpaceX and AMD, while European equities reached a fresh all-time high. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins the show to discuss expectations for the US Federal Reserve and what it means for fixed income portfolios.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(07:08) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(11:55) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

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Stocks are breaking records as investors double down on the AI trade. Strong earnings across sectors, easing geopolitical concerns and renewed risk appetite have pushed markets higher, but SpaceX's latest results reveal the growing price tag of the AI revolution. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, provides more details on the ongoing earnings season, the rotation shaping markets, and where he sees the most attractive opportunities in technology today.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(06:51) - Q2 earnings season / equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(10:50) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets were supported by hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East, sending oil prices sharply lower and easing inflation concerns. Investors also digested a rare coordinated yen-buying intervention by Japan and the United States, while strong US manufacturing data pointed to continued resilience in the industrial sector. Equities advanced on both sides of the Atlantic, with the Dow Jones reaching a record close and the STOXX 600 remaining near all-time highs. Meanwhile, company news included reports of potential merger talks between AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb, Visa's acquisition of cybersecurity firm BioCatch, and Alibaba's latest AI model launch. Joining us today is Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research, who discusses the scale of hyperscaler AI spending and whether the industry is starting to see a clear path towards monetising these investments.

(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(06:39) - Q2 hyperscaler capex: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research

(11:52) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

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After a volatile week, global markets are starting the new trading session on a stronger footing. Investor sentiment improved overnight following reports that renewed US-Iran talks aimed at easing Middle East tensions could begin as early as today, sending oil prices down more than 5%. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is emerging as one of the day's standout performers, extending its gains against the US dollar after confirmed intervention efforts by both US and Japanese authorities. In today's episode, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his latest market insights, examining the technical outlook for the Japanese yen, Asian semiconductor stocks, and US Treasuries, and discussing what these trends could signal for investors in the weeks ahead.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(01:18) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(07:08) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research

(09:48) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

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In just one week, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all chose to hold interest rates steady, yet none of the decisions were unanimous, and of course, the Fed's new Chair is now steering away from forward guidance altogether. With investors left to navigate rates without the usual signposts, what should they make of this week's decisions, and what comes next?
In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko sits down with David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, to unpack the week's central bank decisions. They discuss why the Fed held rates despite markets anticipating a hike, the bond market volatility and dollar weakness that followed Kevin Warsh's press conference, and the outlook for Fed policy into year end. The conversation also covers the Bank of England's split vote and UK rate expectations amid a new political backdrop, as well as examining the Bank of Japan's decision to hold rates while signalling a more hawkish shift alongside yen intervention. Finally, David also offers his insights into why he believes that the ECB will not hike rates at their September meeting.

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:04) - The Fed's decision not to hike rates

(03:00) - Bond market reaction and Kevin Warsh's communication style

(05:34) - Outlook for Fed rate expectations

(07:46) - The Bank of England's split decision

(09:18) - UK rate expectations amid political change

(11:21) - The Bank of Japan holds rates and hints at hikes

(15:15) - Expectations for the ECB

(17:24) - Closing remarks

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