Moving Markets

As the United States marks 250 years of independence, investors are asking whether its markets can continue to deliver long-term outperformance in the face of elevated valuations and global competition. What are America’s enduring structural advantages, and could we be entering a new investment era?
In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, to discuss the investability of the US market as it celebrates a major milestone. Together, they examine the historical drivers of US market leadership, from industrialisation to the current wave of artificial intelligence, and consider whether the region’s capitalist foundations and deep capital markets remain intact. The conversation covers the implications of high valuation multiples, the role of innovation cycles, the impact of market concentration, and the risks posed by political and economic shifts. Mark also shares his perspective on what could signal a regime change, and how investors should think about their US exposure in the context of global opportunities.

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:01) - US structural advantages: Resources, population, and capitalism

(05:17) - Historical cycles: How US leadership translated into market outperformance

(06:30) - Innovation today: Artificial intelligence and the speed of change

(07:23) - Valuations and earnings: Are US equities too expensive?

(08:22) - Market concentration: The Magnificent Seven and broader performance

(09:15) - Could US market leadership be ending? Comparing global markets

(11:23) - Key risks: Economic inequality and political shifts

(13:11) - Are we in a new investment era? Technology, IPOs, and market sentiment

(14:01) - What would signal a regime shift? The role of the dollar and interest rates

(14:45) - Investment approach: Staying invested for the long term

(15:10) - Can US structural advantages support continued outperformance?

(17:03) - Closing remarks and legal reminder

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US job growth slowed significantly in June, giving support to our economists’ view that the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again this year. This pushed Treasury yields and the USD lower, while supporting gold and most equities. US technology and semiconductor stocks fell sharply after reports that Anthropic is looking into developing its own AI chip together with Samsung Electronics. European marketsrose on Brent oil moving towards USD 70 per barrel, reduced rate-hike expectations by the Fed and new German growth measures. Asian equities outperformed, driven by gains in semiconductor stocks and encouraging economic data from China and Japan. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, talks about the USD, gold and his favourite commodity currencies, the AUD and CAD.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:09) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva

(10:52) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Equity markets began the third quarter on a slightly subdued note, with semiconductor stocks coming under particular pressure. In contrast, Meta emerged as one of the standout performers yesterday, with its shares rallying on reports that the company is actively developing a cloud business aimed at selling AI computing power. Fixed income markets remained relatively calm as investors awaited one of the week’s key economic releases: the June US jobs report, due later today. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss the potential implications of President Trump’s decision on copper duties and what it could mean for copper prices.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:18) - Copper: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(11:03) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets closed a volatile quarter with sharply lower oil and gold prices, while AI optimism continued to support equities on both sides of the Atlantic. European stocks posted their strongest quarter in over five years, and US markets remained resilient despite weakness in the ‘Magnificent Seven’. In today’s show, we also discuss easing eurozone inflation, strong US labour market data and key developments across Asia. In addition, our fixed income research analyst Eirini Tsekeridou joins us to explain why bond yields have remained elevated despite falling oil prices, and to discuss the impact of AI on fixed income markets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(07:27) - What’s driving bond yields now? Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Research

(10:34) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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After tensions rose again in the Middle East over the weekend, news yesterday that US envoys will travel to Doha for fresh talks with Iran today allowed markets room to rally. The Dow Jones, which now includes Alphabet, ended yesterday’s session above 52,000 for the first time. Asia continued the rally overnight with the Kospi set to exceed a 105% year-to-date performance by the end of its session. Meanwhile, the yen fell to a 40-year low against the US dollar. And, as Europe melts in the midst of the highest June temperatures on record, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today to talk about the economic impact of climate change, why ‘sponge’ cities are being developed, and what the implications are for investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(05:06) - Future cities and the heatwave: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(10:21) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.