Moving Markets

Oil fell the most in nearly six years, while stocks surged after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire just hours before a Trump-imposed deadline, giving markets a brief respite from Middle East–driven turbulence. Asian equity markets jumped, Treasuries rallied, the US dollar weakened, and precious metals advanced. Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Strategist, discusses the implications for bond markets, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, joins the show to outline what to expect from the upcoming earnings season.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(06:02) - Bond market update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research

(09:55) - Earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(13:24) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Equity gains on Monday were modest and fragile. Risk appetite is fading as investors focus on President Trump’s deadline, rising oil prices, and Middle East tensions. Strong US payrolls on Friday contrast with weaker services employment and rising input costs on Monday, leaving uncertainty over whether inflation pressures will persist. Technology remains a key theme: strong AI demand supported Samsung and Broadcom, while potential IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI point to rising competition for a limited pool of capital. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, comments on developments in energy markets ahead of President Trump’s deadline.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:29) - Energy: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(10:01) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Despite a significant selloff following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global emerging market equities have demonstrated a surprising degree of resilience. What explains this contained drawdown, and how should investors differentiate across regions even as volatility persists?

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:11) - Current resilience of emerging markets

(01:59) - Earnings revisions and relative performance

(03:18) - Market sensitivity and the nature of the drawdown

(04:23) - Energy costs and financial conditions

(06:16) - Monetary policy impact and US dollar outlook

(07:00) - AI as a growth driver in emerging markets

(07:30) - Outlook for EM equities

(09:14) - Closing remarks and legal information

In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by Nenad Dinic, Emerging Market Strategist at Julius Baer, to examine the recent performance of emerging market equities in the wake of geopolitical shocks. They discuss why the fundamental story for the asset class remains robust, the importance of distinguishing between net energy importers and exporters, and how factors such as a weakening US dollar and the AI-driven CapEx cycle are shaping the outlook. The conversation also addresses the implications of regional dispersion, the role of earnings revisions, and why patient investors may find compelling opportunities amid ongoing uncertainty.

In his highly anticipated address to the nation, President Trump dashed hopes of a swift resolution to the conflict with Iran, announcing that the US would ‘hit Iran very hard’ in the coming weeks. Markets reacted immediately: stocks reversed earlier gains, government bond yields rose, and oil prices and the US dollar moved sharply higher on the news. In this episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his insights on the increasingly concerning developments in the aluminium market - and what these dynamics could mean for the market in the weeks ahead.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:29) - Aluminium: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(09:46) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Global markets showed signs of recovery yesterday after a highly volatile March, with European equities stabilising and US indices staging an impressive rally. However, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on sentiment, fuelling higher energy prices and pushing Eurozone inflation above the ECB’s target. Asian markets opened April on a strong footing, led by a sharp surge in Japanese and South Korean equities. Today we’re joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, to explore the latest developments in corporate credit markets and explain the headlines in private credit. We also welcome Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who discusses how equity markets are reacting to the ongoing geopolitical situation and offers a deep dive into emerging market equities.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(07:13) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(11:26) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(16:24) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.