Moving Markets

The current earnings season is seeing some bright spots, such as the Swiss luxury retailer Richemont and the US asset manager BlackRock. US producer prices came in below expectations, continuing to ease inflation concerns. In Asia, a rotation continues from this year's winners, Japan and South Korea, towards laggards such as Hong Kong, while South Korean regulators announced plans to address volatility linked to leveraged ETFs tied to SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. The US dollar stabilised after recent weakness and sterling rose to a one-year high. Meanwhile, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses why oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz despite renewed regional tensions, why European natural gas prices remain elevated, and why gold has been largely unmoved by softer inflation data.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(07:00) - Commodities update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(13:18) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Yesterday’s release of June CPI inflation data in the US provided a welcome boost to US equity and Treasury prices, as traders drastically lowered their bets on a Fed rate hike in July. The mood was further bolstered by Q2 earnings from Wall Street’s big five banks. The buoyant mood continued in Asia this morning, especially in tech, with the Kospi rallying over 7% at one point. We had two guest speakers on today’s podcast. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research highlights his key takeaway from the inflation report and outlines his expectations for Fed policy going forwards. And our equity strategist, Nenad Dinic, assesses those US bank earnings and provides some insights into what the early European earnings reports are revealing. Tune in to find out more!

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:50) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(10:11) - Equity markets update: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research

(14:50) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

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Oil prices surged after fresh tensions in the Middle East raised concerns over global energy supplies, while higher inflation expectations pushed Treasury yields higher and weighed on equity markets, where semiconductor stocks led the declines. Investors are now turning their attention to the start of the US earnings season, with major banks reporting results today. Elsewhere, China’s trade data surprised to the upside, Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected, and the UK and Switzerland announced a new trade deal. On today’s show, we are joined by Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, to discuss quantum computing and discover whether or not it has reached its ChatGPT moment.
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Markets are feeling the pressure this Monday morning as rising US-Iran tensions fuel higher oil prices, bond yields and the dollar, while equities drift lower. But with earnings season now taking centre stage, investors are asking a bigger question: can AI leaders and chipmakers justify their stellar gains from the first half of the year? Also in this episode: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he believes market leadership is unlikely to change despite recent volatility, and why he has upgraded Financials.

(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(08:00) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research

(10:22) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

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With the UK preparing for a new phase of political leadership under the Labour Party's Andy Burnham, investors are watching closely for signals that could impact sterling and UK bonds. Despite headline changes at the top, market volatility has remained subdued. What’s behind the calm, and what should investors expect next?
In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by David Meier, Chief Currency Strategist, and Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research Analyst, to examine the implications of the UK’s political reset for currency and fixed income markets. The discussion covers why sterling has remained resilient despite leadership changes, the lessons learned from past fiscal policy missteps, and the structural factors shaping the UK’s economic outlook. The conversation also explores the drivers of UK gilt yields, the impact of oil prices and inflation expectations, and the outlook for Bank of England policy. Finally, the team discusses positioning in UK bonds, the relative appeal of UK assets, and the case for hedging FX risk.

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:17) - Why has sterling remained calm amid political change?

(03:19) - Lessons from past fiscal episodes and the risk of a repeat

(04:20) - The new prime minister’s room for manoeuvre

(06:19) - Structural constraints and economic outlook for the UK

(07:25) - Oil prices, inflation pass-through, and UK gilt yields

(10:14) - Positioning on the UK yield curve

(10:56) - Bank of England policy outlook

(13:22) - Implications for sterling versus major currencies

(16:35) - Key factors for UK bond investors

(20:30) - FX hedging and international investor considerations

(21:32) - UK equities in the current environment

(23:01) - Closing remarks and legal information

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