Moving Markets

Markets traded largely sideways ahead of the earnings release from NVIDIA, the world’s most valuable company by market capitalisation. After the US market close, the company once again exceeded expectations, delivering stronger-than-anticipated guidance and sending its shares more than 4% higher in after-hours trading. Elsewhere, US inflation data came in slightly above forecasts, prompting a modest rise in Treasury yields. In today’s episode, we welcome Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, to discuss the outlook for the copper market, the key forces shaping supply and demand, and where prices could be heading next.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(05:47) - Copper: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(10:03) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets found their footing yesterday despite an intensification of US sanctions on Iran, as traders focused on the shift towards economic rather than military pressure and the resulting decline in oil prices. Equity markets generally moved higher, led by gains in technology shares, while Germany’s stronger-than-expected economic growth figures added to the constructive backdrop. Attention now turns to today’s US inflation data and Nvidia’s earnings report, two events that could shape the market direction in the days ahead. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his views on Treasury buybacks, fiscal policy and the outlook for US yields and the US dollar, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, assesses whether recent moves in bond markets are beginning to influence equity valuations.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(06:58) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(11:20) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(15:19) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite ended Monday's trading session lower as chip stocks faltered, while the Dow Jones gained 0.25% on the day. It was a similar story in Asia this morning as investors digested the potential ramifications of 'Operation Economic Outcast', while awaiting not only Nvidia's and Marvell Technology's results and US PCE data tomorrow, but also a highly anticipated speech by Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole this Friday.
Damien Ng, Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today to provide his take on the good news last week from the Moderna/Merck cancer trials. Tune in to the podcast to find out why he believes that innovation-driven healthcare remains one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities.

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(07:07) - How personalised vaccines could transform cancer treatment: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research

(12:23) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

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Stronger-than-expected US PMI data could not save equities from a down week as rising bond yields and the Treasury's bond-buying intervention renewed dollar debasement fears, fuelling a blistering rally in gold and Bitcoin. Trade tensions returned as US-Canada talks collapsed over the weekend, and investors brace for a pivotal week featuring NVIDIA earnings and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole address. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, looks at the recent US dollar weakness from a technical perspective and what it means for other asset classes.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(01:06) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(07:03) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(09:58) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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The Q2 earnings season delivered a strong set of results, with positive surprises across sectors and regions. As investors look ahead to the remainder of the year, the broadening of earnings growth and market participation is creating opportunities beyond the dominant AI and technology themes.
In this episode, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about the key takeaways from the Q2 earnings season. They explore sector performance, forward guidance provided by companies, the ongoing strength of the AI investment cycle, and the implications of increased competition and monetisation in AI. The conversation also covers the importance of diversification, and how investors can position portfolios for a broader and potentially more volatile market environment into year end.

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:47) - Key takeaways from Q2 earnings season

(02:01) - Sector performance shows broadening growth

(03:08) - Forward guidance

(04:12) - Evidence of broadening returns

(05:13) - The health of the AI investment cycle

(06:37) - Volatility in AI-related stocks

(07:54) - Monetisation of AI investments

(09:18) - Impact of lower cost AI models

(10:44) - The case for diversification beyond AI

(12:03) - Alternatives to AI across sectors and regions

(13:30) - Closing remarks and legal information

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