Moving Markets

This morning, Iran named Mojtaba Khamanei, the man President Trump said would be unacceptable in the post, as its new leader. The immediate market reaction was a spike in the price of Brent crude oil to nearly USD120 per barrel, and a pronounced selloff in Asian stock markets. These moves have since reversed somewhat after the Financial Times wrote that G7 leaders will have talks with the International Energy Agency today regarding a possible release of energy reserves. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong explains why positioning is driving Asian equity markets more than fundamentals right now, and looks beyond the fog of war to identify attractive Asian equity sectors. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis focuses on what the charts reveal when it comes to the price of oil and the trajectory of US equity markets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(01:18) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:17) - Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong

(11:27) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(15:13) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

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The recent US and Israel strike on Iran has introduced a new layer of uncertainty to global markets, with investors closely monitoring the implications for oil & gas, and portfolios overall. How should investors interpret these developments and position themselves amid heightened geopolitical risk?
In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, and Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory, to discuss the market impact of the Middle East escalation. The conversation covers the immediate effects on oil and gas prices, the scenarios investors should consider, and how clients are responding to volatility across asset classes. The discussion also explores the role of gold, the importance of strategic asset allocation, and why infrastructure and alternatives are gaining traction as diversifiers in uncertain times.

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:48) - Assessing the current situation in the Middle East

(01:31) - Client reactions and portfolio positioning

(02:31) - Market responses: commodities and oil price dynamics

(03:31) - Key scenarios for oil and gas markets

(05:17) - The impact of shipping and insurance costs

(05:56) - Oil price outlook and investor implications

(07:01) - Broader market effects: equities and fixed income

(08:16) - Gold’s performance as a diversifier

(11:24) - Scenario analysis: prolonged conflict and market consequences

(12:39) - Harnessing volatility and portfolio strategies

(13:27) - Investment topics for the long-term

(15:25) - The enduring importance of strategic asset allocation

(16:32) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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Global markets saw another volatile session as escalating Middle East tensions drove oil prices sharply higher and dampened risk appetite. Equities fell across the US and Europe, and US bond yields moved higher as investors reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. In tech, potential new US restrictions on AI chip exports weighed on sentiment, though software stocks bucked the trend with a notable rebound. Asian markets were mixed overnight. Joining our show today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, for the latest on currencies and metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(07:02) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva

(11:10) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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US and European equities rebounded yesterday as the absence of another energy spike supported sentiment. Strong US job gains and a firm ISM services reading eased growth concerns, reduced expectations for a July rate cut, and lifted major indices, with technology leading. The US dollar held firm, investors are positioned for a weaker euro, and Swiss franc strength triggered a second round of SNB verbal intervention. Bitcoin surged, China set a cautious growth target, and Asian markets – especially South Korea – rebounded sharply after steep losses. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides a timely update on the oil and gas markets following the near‑halt in activity through the Strait of Hormuz.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(07:12) - Oil and gas update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(12:14) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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US and European stock markets fell further yesterday although some relief was provided by Trump’s promise to accompany vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.  Both oil and the US dollar strengthened, but gold and silver fell, and overnight Asia’s stock markets suffered a bruising session with the Kospi falling more in one day than it has since 2001. Joining the show today are our research team heads of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, and Fixed Income, Dario Messi, to provide some context on the recent moves in global equity markets and US Treasuries, as well as some suggestions on how to position portfolios in the current situation.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:08) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(09:31) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(13:11) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.