Moving Markets

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike in three years. The accompanying projections and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signalled a hawkish tilt. Markets responded by raising expectations for another rate hike by year-end, lifting the USD and short-term Treasury yields, while gold held up well. Equities weakened overall, although losses were relatively modest outside the Dow Jones. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses high oil, but even higher, diesel prices and why political interference is unlikely to derail the energy transition. Fixed income strategist, Afonso Borges, notes that bond markets have taken the Fed's communication mostly positively.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:47) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(05:40) - Energy markets update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(10:35) - Fixed income update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research

(13:43) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Rising oil prices and higher inflation concerns dominated markets as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated rate decision. Treasury yields climbed to multi-decade highs, with the US 10-year yield breaching 5%, while government bond yields moved sharply higher across Europe and Asia. Equity markets struggled under the weight of rising rates, although energy stocks outperformed as oil prices rallied on supply disruption fears. In today's show, we discuss the key market drivers ahead of the Fed meeting and are joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who explains the latest changes to Swiss equity indices and examines what the recent rise in bond yields could mean for equity investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(07:59) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy

(12:23) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

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Oil prices and global bond yields continued their ascent on Monday and the US 10-year treasury yield has hit the 5.02% this morning - a level not seen since 2007. Markets are now pricing in a 92% probability of a rate hike at tomorrow's FOMC meeting. And with expectations amongst traders growing that this will just be the first hike in a cycle, Kevin Warsh's statement after the meeting will be even more closely scrutinised than normal. With AI headlines a key driver of global equity market in the last 24 hours, tune in to today's podcast to hear Next Generation research analyst Enrico Chinello's view on the unfolding situation and what it means for investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:14) - AI - pacing the frontier?: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation

(13:06) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

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Markets are starting a pivotal week on the back foot, as AI-related stocks retreat following safety concerns raised by the chief executives of Anthropic and OpenAI. Investor sentiment has been further dampened by reports that OpenAI is not expected to go public this year. Meanwhile, oil prices are moving higher as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. Against this backdrop, attention is turning to a busy week for monetary policy, with markets bracing for interest rate hikes from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. In today’s episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his views on how much further oil prices could rise and where 10-year US Treasury yields may ultimately peak.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(01:02) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:13) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(08:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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As we head towards the final quarter of 2026, investors face a shifting landscape where AI remains the key growth engine but market leadership is broadening beyond US technology. With volatility persisting and geopolitical risks still in focus, where might the best opportunities lie for investors positioning their portfolios for the year end?
In this episode, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Julius Baer’s Head of Research, Christian Gattiker, and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, to discuss their outlook for the markets for the year end. The conversation covers the evolving AI investment cycle and the broadening of equity market leadership, as well as the implications of US politics, Fed uncertainty, and ongoing Middle East tensions. They examine equity opportunities across regions and sectors globally, as well as their preferred positioning in fixed income. The conversation also covers the outlook for the US dollar, oil, and gold. And finally, there’s also a suggestion for investors about what not to do as they head towards 2027.

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:44) - Setting the big picture for 2026 and beyond

(02:13) - US market focus and the AI investment cycle

(03:07) - China’s economic outlook and policy stance

(04:18) - Japan: Rate hike expectations and yen dynamics

(05:27) - Central banks, Middle East tensions, and inflation impact

(07:28) - Portfolio positioning for year-end

(08:26) - Broadening equity market leadership

(10:21) - Fixed income opportunities and duration

(11:58) - Currencies, gold, and oil outlook

(13:49) - What investors should avoid now

(14:22) - Key takeaways from Asia and global perspective

(15:33) - Closing remarks

(16:20) - Legal information

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