Moving Markets

As global markets adjust to a world where capital is no longer abundant, investors face new challenges and opportunities. How should they adapt their portfolios, and what are the most compelling prospects for the second half of 2026?
 
Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, join Bernadette Anderko to discuss Julius Baer’s mid-year market outlook. The conversation dissects the shift from a savings glut to a savings grab, and focuses on why selectivity and capital discipline are paramount. Mark and Christian explain the outlook for equities and fixed income, investigating not just sectors but also regions of interest, together with the case for investment grade and emerging market debt, and the ongoing impact of AI and clean energy themes. They also review the prospects for commodities, gold, and currencies as investors position themselves for the remainder of the year.

(00:00) - Introduction and agenda

(00:55) - From a ‘savings glut’ to a ‘savings grab’

(02:16) - Be selective amidst capital expenditure opportunities

(03:03) - Bond yields, duration, and global opportunities

(05:33) - Credit quality and emerging market debt

(06:49) - US vs. non-US markets

(08:07) - European equity dynamics

(08:59) - AI, Asia, and regional drivers

(10:14) - Cloud computing, AI, clean energy

(11:24) - Commodities: Super shock vs. super cycle

(12:53) - Gold outlook

(14:04) - US dollar, yen, and commodity currencies

(15:08) - Key takeaways, closing remarks and legal information

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President Trump halted strikes on Iran yesterday and announced that a peace deal will be signed imminently. Markets reacted accordingly, with oil prices falling and equities rallying. Chip stocks contributed to the rally in both the US and Asia overnight. Even US Treasuries held on to their gains, as markets lowered their bets on a Fed rate hike in October from 51% to 36%. SpaceX raised USD 75 billion, pricing itsshares at USD 135 – its debut will be a big focus later today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Sales in Geneva, joined today’s podcast for his weekly take on all things currency and precious metals, so tune in to hear his views on the US dollar, the euro and the Swiss franc, as well as his perspective on the sharp fall in the gold price.

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:07) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva

(10:40) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

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While European markets proved more resilient, US equities declined amid renewed escalation in the Middle East and fresh inflation data highlighting mounting pressure on US household budgets, driven in part by higher energy costs. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, shares his outlook on gold and silver in this environment. We also hear from Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who previews the European Central Bank’s upcoming rate decision and discusses the implications for investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:16) - Update on gold: Carsten Menke. Head of Next Generation Research, Product & Investment Content

(09:42) - ECB expectations & investment impact: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(12:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Markets saw a cautious session yesterday, as investors remained on edge amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty, with both European and US equities ending broadly lower. Overnight, tensions escalated sharply, with US strikes on Iran followed by retaliatory actions across the Gulf, placing further strain on an already fragile ceasefire. Despite these developments, oil prices remained relatively contained. Macro data painted a mixed but broadly stable picture, with solid US housing demand, a sharply narrowing trade deficit, and modest growth signals from Europe. In Asia, rising producer prices in China and Japan highlighted ongoing cost pressures, keeping central banks in focus. Today, we were joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who discussed the revival of the IPO market and what investors should watch for in the months ahead.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(07:02) - The great IPO comeback: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(14:15) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

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European equities closed off their lows as oil reversed most of its early 5% gain after easing Middle East tensions, leaving Brent near USD 94. Weak German factory orders weighed on sentiment, while stocks diverged, with Zealand Pharma down 23% and Banca Monte dei Paschi up 13% on takeover news. In the US, technology led gains as chip stocks rebounded, though sentiment softened after Apple’s developer conference. Strong demand for SpaceX’s IPO and OpenAI’s filing point to a solid pipeline. Asian markets followed the tech rebound, led by Korea and Japan, while Hong Kong lagged and China reported stronger-than-expected trade data. Biotech deal activity remained strong, while inflation concerns kept rate hike expectations elevated, with muted moves in precious metals and FX. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, joined to discuss rising opposition to data centres in the US, and what it could mean for investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:42) - Growing data centre opposition: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research

(10:03) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

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