Moving Markets

As we head towards the final quarter of 2026, investors face a shifting landscape where AI remains the key growth engine but market leadership is broadening beyond US technology. With volatility persisting and geopolitical risks still in focus, where might the best opportunities lie for investors positioning their portfolios for the year end?
In this episode, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Julius Baer’s Head of Research, Christian Gattiker, and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, to discuss their outlook for the markets for the year end. The conversation covers the evolving AI investment cycle and the broadening of equity market leadership, as well as the implications of US politics, Fed uncertainty, and ongoing Middle East tensions. They examine equity opportunities across regions and sectors globally, as well as their preferred positioning in fixed income. The conversation also covers the outlook for the US dollar, oil, and gold. And finally, there’s also a suggestion for investors about what not to do as they head towards 2027.

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:44) - Setting the big picture for 2026 and beyond

(02:13) - US market focus and the AI investment cycle

(03:07) - China’s economic outlook and policy stance

(04:18) - Japan: Rate hike expectations and yen dynamics

(05:27) - Central banks, Middle East tensions, and inflation impact

(07:28) - Portfolio positioning for year-end

(08:26) - Broadening equity market leadership

(10:21) - Fixed income opportunities and duration

(11:58) - Currencies, gold, and oil outlook

(13:49) - What investors should avoid now

(14:22) - Key takeaways from Asia and global perspective

(15:33) - Closing remarks

(16:20) - Legal information

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US and European bond yields rose sharply as investors priced in higher inflation amid this week's rise in oil prices. The 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5%, but the increase in bond yields was truly global, weighing on global equities and precious metals. Despite the broader risk-off tone, AI-related investment remained a constructive theme, supported by Oracle’s results and Microsoft's data centre expansion plans. David Kohl, Chief Economist, discusses the ECB’s hawkish message and key considerations ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:46) - ECB and US inflation data: David Kohl, Chief Economist

(15:03) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

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Markets remain under pressure as oil prices continue to climb, with Brent crude now trading above the psychologically significant USD 100 per barrel mark. Attention is firmly focused on today’s European Central Bank rate decision, where another hike is widely expected, as well as key US inflation data due later today and tomorrow. Against this backdrop, global government bond yields have risen to levels not seen in years. In today’s episode, we welcome Afonso Borges from our Fixed Income Research team. He shares his perspective on the US Treasury’s somewhat underwhelming buyback announcement and explains why he believes many of the concerns surrounding France’s fiscal outlook are already reflected in current market pricing.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(05:59) - US and European Government bond markets: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research

(09:37) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, pushing inflation back into focus ahead of key US CPI and PPI releases later this week. Meanwhile, trade tensions between the US and Canada intensified, while political uncertainty in Europe remained elevated following German state elections and continued debate over France’s fiscal outlook. In today’s show, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, shares his views on the energy market and explains why global oil supply remains more resilient than many investors fear. We also speak with Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, about rising political fragmentation across Europe and what it means for equity investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(00:15) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(07:45) - Energy update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(14:11) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(19:06) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

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Rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns are pushing bond yields higher, and the result of Sunday's German state elections is weighing on sentiment in Europe. China bought the most gold in a month since 2023, and the Japanese yen is up to its strongest since February. Robust Chinese export growth comes ahead of ahead of President Xi's upcoming visit to the US this month. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about digital assets - not only what has driven their wild ride this year, but also what would be needed for them to recover more permanently.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:35) - Update on the digital assets market: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(11:01) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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