Moving Markets

Global markets have been driven this week by a US–Iran deal, a more hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh, and a Bank of Japan rate hike to multi-decade highs. Markets are now pricing in further US policy tightening, with record Treasury futures volumes signalling strong expectations for rate rises. Equities were mixed yesterday, with early weakness offset by gains in semiconductor stocks. Central banks remain in focus, as the Bank of England held rates and the Swiss National Bank maintained ultra-loose policy amid low inflation. Oil fell below USD 80 on improved supply. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, highlights USD strength and gold weakness as the Fed sharpens its inflation focus. He also discusses the prospects for the major low-yielding currencies, the CHF and JPY.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(07:09) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva

(11:44) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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European equities extended their upward momentum, while US markets faced selling pressure after the first FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a surprisingly hawkish tone, pushing Treasury yields higher. Yet, sentiment later shifted again as news of a signed memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran lifted Asian markets and drove US equity futures firmly into positive territory. In today’s episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, explores how easing geopolitical tensions could reshape the outlook for global energy markets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(05:48) - Energy market update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(10:47) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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SpaceX moves beyond rockets with its acquisition of AI firm Anysphere, igniting investor excitement and propelling the company to become the world’s fifth-most valuable after its blockbuster IPO. As technology and geopolitics continue to reshape markets, attention now turns to today’s FOMC decision and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Fed Chair. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, outlines what to expect from the Fed, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, discusses the impact of mega-IPOs and a potential US–Iran deal on equity markets, as well as how investors should position portfolios for the second half of 2026.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(06:05) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(09:51) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(14:19) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets rallied strongly yesterday as easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran lifted risk sentiment, with European equities reaching fresh record highs and US indices surging across the board. Optimism was driven by a framework agreement pointing towards a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although uncertainty remains around the timeline and terms. Oil prices fell sharply, while gold moved higher amid softer rate expectations and a weaker dollar. Overnight, central banks remained in focus, with the Bank of Japan delivering its first rate hike since 1995, while weak macro data out of China reinforced concerns about slowing domestic demand. Today, we were joined by Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research, who unpacked the intensifying price war among leading AI model providers.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(07:34) - Token pricing war: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research

(12:08) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Yesterday, the US and Iran agreed to the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The deal is set to be signed on Friday and still allows for a 60-day window to negotiate issues around Iran’s nuclear program. Evidently some details are still to be ironed out, but equity and bond markets have reacted positively, with Asia trading higher this morning and futures pointing to a higher opening globally today. Added to this, the price of oil has already dropped more than 4% and gold has climbed 3%. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his thoughts on where these assets might trade from here, as well as sharing his view on semiconductor stocks. 

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(01:09) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(07:18) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(09:22) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.