Moving Markets

Fed comments eased fears of prolonged policy tightening, helping equities recover from an uncertain start. Beneath the surface, however, AI-related stocks remained under pressure amid fresh concerns over China's technological ambitions, while US bank earnings failed to impress. Meanwhile, surging gas prices and renewed attacks in the Middle East reignited concerns ahead of today's US inflation report. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses the implications for corporate bonds, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, examines the outlook for both US and European banks.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(05:54) - Bond Market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(10:31) - US Financials update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(14:20) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Geopolitical developments remained firmly in focus on Monday, lifting oil prices and supporting energy stocks, while technology shares came under pressure. At the same time, investors digested hawkish central bank rhetoric and prepared for the start of a closely watched earnings season. In today’s show, Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research discusses OpenAI’s revenue rate, intensifying competition within the AI industry, and the growing opposition to data centre expansion.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:32) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(07:34) - AI price wars: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research

(12:35) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Markets rebounded on Friday as OpenAI's revenue outlook and Trump's ‘energy ceasefire’ with Russia eased supply concerns, weighing on oil despite geopolitical risks. SpaceX's move into mobile telecom sent US carriers sharply lower. Attention now turns to major US bank earnings, inflation data, and semiconductor results. In today’s show Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team explains why the US technology sector remains the only game in town, what levels the euro needs to defend, and what lies ahead for precious metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(01:19) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(07:27) - Technical Analysis update: Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis

(10:25) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

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Hyperscaler investment in AI infrastructure has reached unprecedented levels, with capital expenditure figures now dwarfing even those of the global oil and gas industry. As spending surges and supply tightness persists, investors are wondering how sustainable this boom is, and which segments of the AI value chain stand to benefit most?
In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video at Julius Baer, is joined by Enrico Chinello, research analyst in the Next Generation Research team, to examine the drivers behind hyperscaler spending, the impact on the AI value chain, and the outlook for key beneficiaries such as semiconductor manufacturers and equipment providers. The discussion covers the sustainability of current investment levels, the implications for free cash flow and financing habits among leading AI companies, and the risks and opportunities as the AI cycle continues to accelerate.

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:57) - Defining hyperscalers and their role

(01:57) - The scale and acceleration of hyperscaler capital expenditure

(03:52) - Risks of AI training losing steam and visibility on spending

(04:19) - Market reactions to AI risk warnings and supply chain constraints

(05:49) - Drivers of price inflation in memory and compute units

(07:23) - FOMO and hyperscaler behaviour in capacity booking

(08:01) - Who bears the cost of rising AI infrastructure spending?

(08:32) - Duration of supply tightness and outlook for normalization

(09:17) - Pricing power across semiconductors, memory, servers

(11:07) - Who will benefit most in the AI value chain?

(11:23) - Beyond semiconductors

(13:04) - The sustainability of the AI spending boom and changing financing habits

(14:33) - Free cash flow compression and outlook for returns

(16:27) - Risks and what to monitor

(18:10) - Pacing the frontier - what will be the impact?

(20:31) - Closing remarks

(21:22) - Legal information

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Markets stumbled after a newspaper report suggested that OpenAI's annualised revenues could fall well short of previous expectations. Overnight, however, sentiment improved as doubts emerged over the accuracy of the report. Meanwhile, a stronger-than-expected 30-year US Treasury auction helped drive yields lower, providing additional support for equities alongside easing oil prices. In today's episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares his views on the US dollar, gold, and the emerging market currencies he believes offer the most compelling opportunities.

(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(08:30) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva

(13:27) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.