Moving Markets

China's Golden Week is often viewed as a pulse check on the health of the world's second-largest economy. This year, the results have reignited debate over consumer confidence, policy stimulus and the outlook for growth. In this episode, we examine what the latest Golden Week trends reveal, while exploring the bigger investment questions around China's property market, technological ambitions, export outlook and the impact of escalating trade tensions.
 
Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research, Hong Kong at Julius Baer, sits down with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Lotus Asset Management, for a wide-ranging discussion on market sentiment, economic recovery and where investors may find the most compelling opportunities in China over the next 6 months.

(00:28) - What options do policymakers have following weaker Golden Week data?

(03:51) - Property stimulus and growth outlook

(09:30) - China's rapid advancements in technological innovation

(13:40) - Tightening trade restrictions - what's the impact?

(18:07) - Are investors being overly pessimistic?

(21:04) - Sectors to watch in the next 6 months

European markets closed in positive territory on Thursday as investors rotated out of AI and tech stocks into defensive sectors such as healthcare and materials, as well as buying up government bonds. The same story played out in the US where the Dow Jones was the star performer. Overnight comments from Fed Chair Warsh led to traders reducing their bets on an October hike from 25% to 15%. Warsh also made some encouraging comments about artificial intelligence which doubtless assisted the Asian equity market recovery this morning. As ever on a Friday, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins the podcast to deliver his thoughts on currencies and metals this week. Tune in to find out what he thinks about gold, the Aussie dollar, the Brazilian real, and even the Mexican peso.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:16) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva

(10:52) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets were driven by three themes yesterday: hotter US inflation, rising expectations of Fed rate hikes, and a growing AI sell-off. These forces weighed on equities, even as market breadth in the S&P 500 remained broadly balanced, and triggered sharp swings in bonds and currencies. Europe held up well, but risk sentiment remains fragile heading into today, with technology stocks in Asia also under pressure. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses iron ore, including why the same iron ore trades at sharply different prices in different locations around the world.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(07:18) - Iron ore: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(11:56) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Fed comments eased fears of prolonged policy tightening, helping equities recover from an uncertain start. Beneath the surface, however, AI-related stocks remained under pressure amid fresh concerns over China's technological ambitions, while US bank earnings failed to impress. Meanwhile, surging gas prices and renewed attacks in the Middle East reignited concerns ahead of today's US inflation report. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses the implications for corporate bonds, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, examines the outlook for both US and European banks.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(05:54) - Bond Market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(10:31) - US Financials update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(14:20) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Geopolitical developments remained firmly in focus on Monday, lifting oil prices and supporting energy stocks, while technology shares came under pressure. At the same time, investors digested hawkish central bank rhetoric and prepared for the start of a closely watched earnings season. In today’s show, Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research discusses OpenAI’s revenue rate, intensifying competition within the AI industry, and the growing opposition to data centre expansion.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:32) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(07:34) - AI price wars: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research

(12:35) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.