Moving Markets

The Democrats recorded a full sweep at the US midterms 2026. What does this mean for Asian markets, what can investors expect from the Federal Reserve going forward and will this also impact the oil price and therefore the inflation picture?
In this episode, Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, discusses with Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video, why the outlook is rather optimistic for Asian markets, why both the US Dollar and oil price could potentially weaken going forward and to what extent the AI investment cycle remains important, but should be balanced out with defensive equity positions.

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:01) - Democrats' historic midterm sweep

(02:20) - Could a Democratic victory be good news for Asian markets?

(04:16) - Impact on trade policies and tariffs

(06:22) - Could markets be heading for a year-end rally?

(07:23) - Is a weaker US dollar on the horizon?

(08:33) - Is the AI spending race finally slowing down?

(10:44) - Positioning Asian equity portfolios for growth

(12:28) - Key risks investors should watch

(14:05) - Key takeaways

All three of the main US indices closed lower yesterday but it was AI-connected stocks that suffered the most and which sent the Nasdaq Composite 5.5% lower on the day. Following the Democratic sweep at the midterms, investors are nervous about the possible impact on data centre development. The nerves were felt around the globe, with many European indices and nearly all of Asia’s closing lower yesterday and this morning. There were, however, a few exceptions. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides a timely and insightful update on what is happening in both oil and natural gas markets on today’s podcast – tune in to find out why he believes that prices will trend lower in 2027.

(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(07:09) - Energy market update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research

(12:20) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

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Global markets rallied after the Democrats secured control of both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections, fuelling hopes of reduced policy uncertainty and easing geopolitical tensions. Oil prices plunged nearly 9% as investors bet on a faster resolution to the US-Iran conflict, while bond yields fell and equities surged on both sides of the Atlantic. However, technology stocks were mixed, with AI platform giants advancing, while semiconductor and data centre shares came under pressure. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Advisory in Geneva, joins today’s show to talk about the impact of the Democratic sweep on currencies and metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(06:36) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva

(11:44) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets initially sold off after the Democratic blue wave in the US midterms, but much of the decline in equities, bond yields and the dollar quickly reversed. AI sentiment remained resilient, with AMD raising guidance and Meta attracting strong demand for its USD 15 billion bond issue. Gold climbed above USD 4,000 per ounce while Asian markets rebounded despite softer Chinese services data. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, sees political gridlock as supportive for US Treasuries and highlights attractive value in high-quality intermediate-duration bonds. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, believes policy uncertainty around regulation, taxation and AI spending could weigh on US stocks, supporting the case for international diversification.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(05:27) - Bond Market reaction to US midterm elections: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income

(09:43) - Equities in the wake of midterms: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(13:09) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

A dramatic drop in oil prices set the tone for global markets yesterday, as investors reacted to signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations. Lower energy prices boosted European equities and particularly travel and leisure stocks, but concerns surrounding the AI trade continued to drag on US technology names. China's yuan is set for its biggest one-day drop against the dollar for six months today, after the central bank said it would raise the amount of foreign currency that financial institutions have to set aside as reserves. The US midterm elections dominate the political agenda today, with polls suggesting that the Democrats are favoured to win the House, but the Senate will be a close call. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the show to talk about cybersecurity after the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance, was hacked last week.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(07:04) - Cybersecurity in focus: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(11:45) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.