Moving Markets

With 2026 at its midpoint, investors are navigating an environment marked by geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and shifting growth dynamics across major economies. How are asset allocators responding, and what does this mean for portfolio construction in the months ahead?
In this episode of The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by David Kohl, Chief Economist, and Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory, to examine the mid-year market outlook from an investor’s perspective. The discussion covers the impact of ongoing conflicts on commodity prices, the evolution of inflation expectations, and why Europe’s growth outlook is finally turning a corner. The conversation also explores the implications for equity and fixed income allocations, the realities of the AI investment boom, and the case for diversifying away from US dollar assets. The episode concludes with a look at private markets, infrastructure, and the enduring role of gold in portfolios.
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There was a mixed picture in financial markets yesterday as persistent US inflation continues to test the Federal Reserve’s patience. European equities climbed to fresh record highs, boosted by healthcare and chip stocks, while US markets diverged, with tech weakness weighing on the Nasdaq. Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets came under pressure, led by sharp declines in Japan and South Korea, while oil volatility continues amid uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. In today’s show, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares his views on the US dollar, gold and broader currency dynamics.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(06:17) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva

(11:23) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Not only did Micron’s fiscal Q3 earnings exceed expectations yesterday, but the company also guided for current-quarter revenue of USD 50 billion, positively surprising analysts and investors and boosting its share price by 16%. The euphoria around the announcement spilled over into other chip names, and Asia’s markets, excluding Hong Kong, all rallied overnight. Oil prices and bond yields have fallen as flows through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to ramp up, and expectations of rate hikes have receded. Today’s PCE reading in the US might provide more clues. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joined today’s podcast to share his thoughts on gold’s continued dive. He explains why such sharp and swift moves point to flows rather than fundamentals, and shares why he remains constructive longer-term.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:33) - Gold and silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(12:23) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets are facing renewed pressure as investors question whether AI-driven stocks, particularly semiconductors, can sustain their remarkable rally. All eyes are on Micron, set to report earnings after today’s close in New York, for clues on the sector’s next move. At the same time, the broader economic backdrop remains supportive, with US business activity expanding at its fastest pace in five months. In today’s episode, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his perspective on newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s communication framework – and what it could mean for markets and investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:41) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(11:31) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets reacted cautiously after the US granted Iran a temporary 60‑day licence to sell oil in USD. Euro area consumer confidence remained weak in June, and pressure on Hermès weighed on luxury stocks. In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation adds to a decade of political instability, but markets stayed calm. ECB president Christine Lagarde said that the central bank doesn’t need to react more forcefully to the fallout from the Middle East conflict. In US equities, investors rotated out of large tech stocks into small caps. In Asia, speculation about USD/JPY intervention grew after talks between Japanese and US officials. Regional equities declined. Damien Ng, Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to talk about what strong dealmaking says about the healthcare sector.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:50) - Dealmaking in the healthcare sector: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research

(11:28) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.