Moving Markets

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated over the weekend, with coordinated strikes by the US and Israel targeting Iranian facilities and leadership. In response, Iran has launched retaliatory strikes across the Gulf region. The surge in hostilities has placed global markets under heightened scrutiny. Equity indices are trading lower, while safe-haven assets - including the Swiss franc and gold - are seeing increased demand. Oil prices have spiked overnight, driven by fears of potential supply disruptions in one of the world’s most critical energy regions. In this episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, provides timely analysis on the evolving geopolitical landscape and its implications for global investors. He is joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who outlines key technical support levels for equity markets and shares his outlook for oil and precious metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(06:26) - Middle East situation: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research

(10:18) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(12:13) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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The recent US Supreme Court decision on tariffs has shifted the landscape for investors, replacing a patchwork of country-specific measures with a temporary universal tariff. What does this mean for markets overall, different countries and sectors, the US dollar and fixed income?
In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets – The View Beyond podcast, Helen Freer is joined by Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, to discuss the implications of the Supreme Court’s ruling against the tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act last year. The conversation covers the short-term reduction in uncertainty, the winners and losers among countries and sectors, the impact on corporate earnings, and the unresolved question of tariff refunds. Christian Gattiker also shares insights on the muted reaction of the US dollar, the outlook for fixed income, and the key takeaways for investors as US trade policy enters a new phase.

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:42) - What the decision means for investors in the short term

(01:28) - The temporary universal tariff

(02:06) - Winners and losers by country and sector

(03:32) - Ongoing uncertainty and the medium-term outlook

(04:12) - Will there be an impact on corporate earnings?

(04:47) - The unresolved issue of tariff refunds

(05:31) - The US dollar reaction and outlook

(06:22) - Fixed income perspective: uncertainty, fiscal effects, and inflation

(07:32) - Key takeaways

(07:59) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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Major stock indices ended mostly lower after a two‑day rally. In the US, the Information Technology sector fell nearly 2%, weighed down by a 5.5% drop in Nvidia shares. In contrast, the equally weighted S&P 500 gained 0.6%. Treasury prices and gold edged higher as investors sought safe‑haven assets following the conclusion of US - Iran talks, which ended without any tangible progress. Today, we are joined by Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, who shares his views on precious metals and alternatives for those looking to diversify beyond the US dollar.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(05:40) - FX & Metals markets update: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland

(08:36) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Nvidia delivered results yesterday that beat analysts’ expectations but failed to cause more than a brief rally in extended trading. Nevertheless, US indices ended the day higher, with the Nasdaq Composite closing up 1.26%, and Asia’s tech-biased indices following suit. The Nikkei 225 breached 59,000 for the first time as the Takaichi trade continued.  Elsewhere investors await further tariff announcements from the US in the coming days. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins today’s show to explain why, despite rising geopolitical tensions, he believes that the trajectory for both oil and European natural gas prices will be down as we head towards the summer.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:42) - Energy update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(11:49) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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US stocks rebounded yesterday led by technology shares after AI developments announced by Meta and Anthropic. Strong US economic data lifted the broader market and boosted small caps. In Europe, autos rose on lower‑than‑expected US tariffs, while banks fell. Taiwan and South Korea climbed on AI optimism, and Japan advanced after the Prime Minister nominated two reflation‑focused academics to the Bank of Japan’s policy board, fuelling expectations of slow rate increases and keeping the yen weak. Precious metals strengthened with gold and silver rising on geopolitical tensions, China’s market return, and continued safe-haven demand. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Strategy Research, explains why artificial intelligence could initially support bonds.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:02) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(10:38) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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