Moving Markets

The first quarter of 2026 has presented investors with complex and worsening financial conditions, volatile oil prices, and heightened geopolitical tensions. Q1 earnings are already being reported, and so far, the indications have been promising. What are the expectations for the rest of the season? And what should investors be watching out for?
In this episode of The View Beyond Podcast, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research at Julius Baer, to preview the first-quarter earnings season and explore how markets are dealing with the ongoing uncertainty. They examine the resilience of equity markets, the concentration of earnings growth in big tech and commodity sectors, and the early signals from major banks. The conversation includes expectations for European markets, the critical importance of forward guidance this time around, and thoughts on how investors might navigate the current environment.

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:04) - Market backdrop ahead of Q1 earnings

(02:00) - Consensus expectations for Q1

(02:59) - Early results and the performance of big banks

(04:08) - European earnings outlook

(05:08) - What investors should focus on now

(05:59) - Assessing equity markets amid geopolitical uncertainty

(07:20) - Investment views in the current environment

(08:24) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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Wall Street ended modestly higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs following a twelfth consecutive advance. US markets reacted positively to the announcement of a 10‑day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel. Earnings also provided support, led by banks and semiconductor companies, while luxury remained the weak spot this week. Notably, shares of Charles Schwab and Netflix both fell sharply yesterday after releasing their results. US economic data was mixed, with industrial production declining but survey indicators staying firm. In Europe, inflation surprised to the upside and Germany cut its growth forecast for the year. Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, talks about why the US dollar may be trading lower despite unresolved tensions between the US and Iran.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:19) - FX & metals update: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions

(09:31) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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President Trump indicated that Tehran wants to make a deal yesterday and officials from Pakistan signalled that new talks are planned. Meanwhile, it seems as if Israel and Lebanon might also be poised to have ceasefire discussions. US and Asia stock markets have reacted very positively with several indices surging to new all-time highs. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to unravel the complicated nuances of different fuel prices and explain why he believes that oil prices might now be past their peak. 

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:18) - Energy market update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(12:45) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Investors grapple with rising stagflation fears amid slowing growth and persistent inflation, yet optimism over renewed US-Iran peace talks has fuelled a broad equity rally, pushing major markets close to record highs. Banks are reporting booming trading revenues even as they sounded a note of caution about the ripple effect of higher oil prices. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses how major central banks may respond to the repercussions of the war and whether credit markets can benefit from the equity rebound.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(06:08) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(09:27) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

After an early sell-off, equities rebounded during the trading session following President Trump’s comments that further negotiations with Iran - and a potential deal - remain within reach in the coming days. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 moved back into positive territory for the year, while oil prices slipped below USD 100 per barrel once again. In today’s episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on cybersecurity and explains why we remain constructive on the theme going forward.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(07:08) - Cybersecurity in focus: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(10:41) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.