Moving Markets

Renewed fighting in the Middle East sent oil prices and bond yields higher yesterday as gold lost its lustre and equity markets retreated. Inflation data in the eurozone did not help matters, rising to 3.3% in August, up from 2.9% in July. Markets are now pricing in a 25 basis point hike from the ECB next week, and concerns are mounting about whether the Fed will also raise rates in September. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins the podcast to discuss the elevated yield levels, Kevin Warsh's messaging, and how he believes bond investors could best position themselves in the current environment.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(00:54) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:09) - Yields on the rise, fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income

(10:20) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

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Renewed US-Iran tensions impacted global markets yesterday, pushing oil prices higher and weighing on equities. Bond yields rose, with Japan’s 10-year bond yield actually hitting 3% this morning for the first time since 1996. Tesla gained 5.5%, making it the best performer in the S&P 500 yesterday. Today’s key economic releases include US ISM manufacturing data, but the highlight will undoubtedly be Friday’s closely watched jobs report. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research analyst, joins today’s podcast to talk about how intensifying competition in the AI space, particularly from lower-cost Chinese models, is driving AI token prices down, andwhat it all means for investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(05:55) - AI competition from China: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research

(11:33) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, markets have repriced expectations for US monetary policy, with traders now assigning a 60% probability to a rate hike at the Fed's mid-September meeting. Meanwhile, Asian markets have started the week on the back foot, although they have recovered somewhat from their session lows. In today's episode, Chief Economist David Kohl discusses the outlook for US interest rates and the implications for investors. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his market perspectives and highlights the most compelling opportunities from a technical analysis standpoint.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:44) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:03) - Jackson Hole comments: David Kohl, Chief Economist

(09:41) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(13:08) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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With yields at historically attractive levels and the yield curve offering attractive opportunities, fixed income is drawing renewed attention from investors seeking both income and capital preservation. But is the short end of the curve really as appealing as it seems—and what should investors know about the risks and rewards?
In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video at Julius Baer, is joined by Roman Frey, Head of CIO Office Global Fixed Income and voting member of the Fixed Income Investment Committee. Together, they explore why fixed income deserves a place in every portfolio, the importance of duration, credit risk, and liquidity, and how macroeconomic factors and central bank policy shape the opportunity set. The conversation covers the dynamics of the primary and secondary bond markets, the role of market technicals, and why short-dated bond strategies may offer a compelling alternative to cash and money market funds. Roman also discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve’s evolving communication style under Kevin Warsh, the practicalities of managing strategic cash, and why now may be a particularly attractive time to lock in yields.

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:28) - Is fixed income really boring?

(04:39) - Understanding duration and credit risk

(06:53) - Liquidity and the importance of the primary market

(10:08) - Macroeconomic factors and central bank policy

(12:40) - Market technicals and the impact of supply and demand

(14:03) - Hyperscalers and the shape of new bond issuance

(16:31) - Cash versus bonds—what investors should consider

(20:34) - The Fed’s new communication style and implications for investors

(23:08) - Is short duration the right approach now?

(25:27) - What makes short-dated bond strategies attractive?

(28:28) - Managing short-dated bonds: hold to maturity or switch?

(29:48) - Risk and return trade-offs in short-dated strategies

(32:21) - Investment horizon and the role of strategic cash

(34:51) - Yield curve steepness and the roll-down effect

(36:16) - Is now a good time to invest in bonds?

(38:23) - Closing and legal information

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NVIDIA added USD 442 billion to its market capitalisation yesterday, with gains spreading beyond chipmakers into software and cybersecurity stocks amid strong earnings releases. Political uncertainty and debt concerns weighed on French markets ahead of the country's first presidential debate yesterday evening. A two-year Japanese government bond auction saw relatively weak demand amid growing expectations of Bank of Japan tightening next month. Reports suggest Venezuela may leave OPEC, potentially weakening the organisation's influence. The focus today is on Kevin Warsh's highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech. What can we learn from past speeches by Fed presidents at Jackson Hole? Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the USD debasement trade and what he is seeing in markets amid widespread claims surrounding the theme.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(07:06) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva

(11:17) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.