Moving Markets

As the war in the Middle East continues, energy markets are still at the centre of investors’ attention. How resilient are global oil and gas flows, and what are the possible scenarios as the situation evolves? 
In this episode Helen Freer is joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy markets and investors. The conversation covers the current level of oil supply disruptions, the effectiveness of alternative trade routes, the role of storage buffers, and the potential for lasting structural changes in global energy markets. Norbert outlines the key scenarios for the months ahead, the economic risks at play, and what investors should keep in mind as uncertainty persists.

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:49) - Crisis dynamics and early surprises

(02:01) - The Strait of Hormuz situation

(03:03) - How oil is moving around the disruption

(04:00) - The role and limits of oil in storage

(05:21) - Energy infrastructure

(06:41) - Economic implications

(07:58) - Could the conflict drive lasting structural changes in energy markets?

(09:36) - Central banks’ policy response

(10:54) - Scenario analysis

(14:55) - Key takeaways for investors

(15:45) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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Markets saw another sharp risk‑off move yesterday as fears of escalation in the Iran war pushed investors out of everything except oil. Inflation worries strengthened after the OECD raised its US forecast, while growth concerns deepened in Europe, where data points to a weak start to 2026. Corporate news added pressure, with technology stocks hit by Meta’s legal setbacks and renewed doubts about memory‑chip demand. Asian markets steadied after the US extended its deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s power plant infrastructure, though geopolitical risks remain high. Key releases today include Spain’s inflation data, BYD’s earnings, and US consumer sentiment figures. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses the recent sharp moves in bond yields and what it means for investors amid an uncertain war trajectory.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(05:54) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(09:18) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Global equities rose on Wednesday as hopes of a path to peace in the Middle East and lower oil prices lifted sentiment. The MSCI World Index gained nearly 1%, its best performance since 9 February, and bond yields eased sharply. Beneath the positive market tone, economic surveys from Switzerland and Germany pointed to weakening confidence. Company news was mixed: Arm Holdings rallied on progress in AI hardware, while Meta and YouTube lost a landmark social‑media addiction case. In Asia, sentiment reversed as oil rebounded and memory stocks weakened after Google flagged an LLM compression method that could cut memory use. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that aluminium prices have fallen back after an initial spike following the outbreak of the Iran war, despite the region’s central role in the market.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:45) - Aluminium: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(10:05) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets continue to gyrate around the latest headlines on the Middle East conflict. Early weakness yesterday – driven by doubts over the status of any US–Iran negotiations – gave way to renewed optimism overnight and into Asian trading this morning, as the US outlined a 15‑point plan aimed at ending the conflict. Gold stabilised, while global PMIs added to inflation concerns and highlighted weakening economic momentum. In this context, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses the drivers behind the recent market behaviour, why investors should remain patient, and why Swiss equities continue to serve as an effective crisis hedge.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(05:40) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(10:17) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global equities staged a sharp rebound yesterday after reports of a potential de‑escalation in the Middle East conflict. Brent crude saw one of its biggest intraday swings on record, and short‑dated US Treasury yields dropped sharply. Asian markets also retraced some of their steep losses from the previous session. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares why he remains constructive on the Buildings & Infrastructure theme in Germany.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:02) - Germany’s infrastructure spending: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(09:48) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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