Moving Markets

Despite geopolitical tensions, US equity markets have reached record highs, with artificial intelligence at the heart of this surge. What is driving these historic moves? How are investors positioning themselves to both capture the opportunities and manage the risks? 
In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, and Manuel Villegas, Co-Manager of the Julius Baer Next Generation Equity Fund. They explore the rapid development of AI, the unprecedented growth in data centre infrastructure, and the evolving dynamics of the global value chain. The discussion covers the shift from AI training to inference, the critical role of memory and hardware, bottlenecks in data centre buildout, and the implications of rising capital expenditure by hyperscalers. Their conversation also examines the international nature of the AI value chain, the impact of regulatory and supply constraints, and the outlook for investors as monetisation accelerates across the sector.

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:56) - AI's impact on the tech landscape

(03:56) - Hardware vs. software

(05:22) - Capturing the AI infrastructure super cycle

(09:01) - Data centre bottlenecks and constraints

(10:43) - Inflationary pressures

(13:27) - The politics of data centre construction

(14:52) - Hyperscaler earnings

(18:16) - How AI investments are translating into tangible revenues

(19:49) - Performance, positioning, and valuation

(20:53) - Winners, sector rotation, and the importance of Asia's supply chain

(23:16) - The global nature of the AI value chain

(24:22) - Scenarios for cloud computing and AI

(24:56) - View on sub sectors for remainder of 2026

(27:11) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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Markets were driven by headlines from the Trump–Xi summit in Beijing, where progress on trade and a surprise easing of US chip export restrictions to major Chinese tech firms lifted sentiment, particularly in technology. European equities closed higher and US indices reached fresh record highs, supported by strong earnings from Cisco, although gains in Asia faded as rising Treasury yields and renewed rate hike expectations weighed on sentiment. Corporate news was mixed, while Crypto-related stocks rallied following regulatory progress. Commodities showed divergence, with oil edging higher and metals softer. Overnight, Asian equities declined broadly, led by a sharp sell-off in South Korea. In today’s show, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares insights on the British pound, precious metals, and ongoing volatility.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(06:41) - FX & Metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva

(10:57) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

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Markets showed a broad risk-off tone on Tuesday, with equities weaker and bond yields moving higher. Oil prices surged as hopes for a US–Iran deal faded, stoking inflation concerns after stronger-than-expected US inflation data. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains the implications for bond markets and shares his view on UK gilts amid ongoing political turmoil. And Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategist, explains why he likes the Communications sector and highlights areas of strength and weakness within European equities.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(06:52) - Fixed income strategy update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(10:59) - Equity strategy rating changes: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research

(15:59) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

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European markets were weighed down by declines in the luxury sector yesterday, as concerns over weakening global demand dampened sentiment. In contrast, major US indices reached fresh record highs, led by strong gains in the technology sector. Meanwhile, oil prices are climbing again this morning amid signs that the Middle East ceasefire may be unravelling. Today, we are joined by Dr. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research, who will share his insights on the hantavirus outbreak and the role genomics and digital health tools are playing.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:21) - Genomics & digital health tools tackling the Hantavirus: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research

(10:41) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Strong earnings and resilient jobs data are prompting markets to rule out rate cuts this year. Semiconductor stocks continue to lead gains across the US and Asia, with South Korea and Japan hitting new highs, supported by AI investment. Inflation pressures reflected in China’s data release, rising oil prices amid a fragile Middle East ceasefire, and broader geopolitical risks remain in focus ahead of a busy week of data and events, including inflation releases from the US, Germany and Japan, the Trump–Xi meeting, the King’s Speech in the UK, and Kevin Warsh taking over the leadership at the Fed. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, outlines the relative weakness in oil and oil and gas stocks, the growing vulnerability of the US dollar, and why a pullback in semiconductor stocks may be healthy.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:17) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(11:07) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.