Moving Markets

Sharp semiconductor losses amid AI chip rivalry fears contrast with resilient broader markets, while escalating US-Iran tensions send oil surging 5%, highlighting growing jitters over geopolitics and inflation just as central banks signal rates may stay higher for longer. Investors will now focus on the upcoming earnings season for more guidance. Matthieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his insights on what to expect. And Tim Gagie, Head of PB Sales (Geneva) FX & PM, talks about the British pound amid the political uncertainty in Britain and key levels to watch for gold.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(06:36) - Earnings preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(10:25) - FX update: Tim Gagie, Head PB Sales (Geneva) – FX and PM

(14:37) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

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US equities started the week strongly as AI-related stocks rebounded yesterday and the Dow Jones closed above 53,000 for the first time. Broadcom gained after extending its partnership with Apple, while Microsoft slipped following plans to cut jobs as it reallocates resources towards AI infrastructure. In Europe, most indices were down, although Germany’s DAX bucked the trend and reached a new record high, and EasyJet surged on takeover news. Asian markets today came under pressure, led by South Korea’s Kospi, where a trading halt was triggered when the index fell more than 8%. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the show to talk about El Niño and its potential economic consequences.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(06:11) - The El Niño effects heading our way: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(09:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Softer inflation data supported sentiment in the eurozone, while in the US, comments by Fed chair Kevin Warsh on inflation and a weaker-than-expected labour market report lifted equities last week. Gold rose and the USD weakened. Brent crude is holding near USD 72 despite OPEC+ announcing an output increase over the weekend. In Asia, attention is on SK Hynix ahead of its USD 29 billion US listing, which could become the largest-ever foreign IPO. SpaceX is also in focus as the expiry of the analyst quiet period is expected to trigger a wave of research reports and price targets. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses, among other topics, why US equity market behaviour may be more reminiscent of 1998 than 2000.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:37) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research

(10:09) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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As the United States marks 250 years of independence, investors are asking whether its markets can continue to deliver long-term outperformance in the face of elevated valuations and global competition. What are America’s enduring structural advantages, and could we be entering a new investment era?
In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, to discuss the investability of the US market as it celebrates a major milestone. Together, they examine the historical drivers of US market leadership, from industrialisation to the current wave of artificial intelligence, and consider whether the region’s capitalist foundations and deep capital markets remain intact. The conversation covers the implications of high valuation multiples, the role of innovation cycles, the impact of market concentration, and the risks posed by political and economic shifts. Mark also shares his perspective on what could signal a regime change, and how investors should think about their US exposure in the context of global opportunities.

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:01) - US structural advantages: Resources, population, and capitalism

(05:17) - Historical cycles: How US leadership translated into market outperformance

(06:30) - Innovation today: Artificial intelligence and the speed of change

(07:23) - Valuations and earnings: Are US equities too expensive?

(08:22) - Market concentration: The Magnificent Seven and broader performance

(09:15) - Could US market leadership be ending? Comparing global markets

(11:23) - Key risks: Economic inequality and political shifts

(13:11) - Are we in a new investment era? Technology, IPOs, and market sentiment

(14:01) - What would signal a regime shift? The role of the dollar and interest rates

(14:45) - Investment approach: Staying invested for the long term

(15:10) - Can US structural advantages support continued outperformance?

(17:03) - Closing remarks and legal reminder

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US job growth slowed significantly in June, giving support to our economists’ view that the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again this year. This pushed Treasury yields and the USD lower, while supporting gold and most equities. US technology and semiconductor stocks fell sharply after reports that Anthropic is looking into developing its own AI chip together with Samsung Electronics. European marketsrose on Brent oil moving towards USD 70 per barrel, reduced rate-hike expectations by the Fed and new German growth measures. Asian equities outperformed, driven by gains in semiconductor stocks and encouraging economic data from China and Japan. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, talks about the USD, gold and his favourite commodity currencies, the AUD and CAD.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:09) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva

(10:52) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.