Supply Chain Secrets

New restrictions from the Panama Canal Authority are cutting daily transits starting in September, well ahead of the Chinese New Year peak season shippers depend on that route to serve.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why the canal authority is acting early, and what a 34% drop in rain inflow to Lake Gatun means for shippers who haven't built contingency plans
A Transpacific market sending mixed signals: Southeast Asia rates spiking, Northeast Asia to US East Coast rates dropping almost 30% in a week, and a rate spread on Asia-US East Coast now as wide as it was at the summer peak
Updates on the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz standoff with Iran, and the new US-Canada tariff breakdown
Why the Northern Sea Route remains more hype than real capacity, and where FMC Chairman Laura DiBella's net zero framework comments leave the November IMO vote
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Pacific spot rates are flatlining on average, but the spread between the highest and lowest payers just hit its widest point in months, a sign the market has no real conviction on where this goes next. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver break down what's actually driving ocean freight this week.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Asia-USWC/USEC spreads widening sharply while average rates hold flat, and what that phantom GRI risk means for shippers
NOAA's latest El Niño forecast for the Panama Canal and the draft restrictions likely coming this fall
Red Sea normalization update as more carriers shift back to Suez routing
The order book math: why fleet growth may already be outpacing true demand, and what that means for capacity heading into 2027 and 2028
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NYFI held flat for a fourth straight week, and the June CTS data explains why the Transpacific demand story isn't what the headlines suggest.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why NYFI and SCFI track different things by design (SCFI is a forward-looking quote, NYFI reflects cargo already loaded), and how to spot a phantom GRI before you pay for one
June CTS data showing Transpacific demand and capacity both flat year over year, while Asia-Europe, Asia-South America, and Asia-Africa post double-digit growth
Red Sea normalization signals: OOCL's new Bab el-Mandeb service and Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd shifting the AE15 and AE19 Gemini services back to Suez
Panama Canal draft cuts ahead of El Niño, plus low water on the Rhine and Amazon squeezing inland moves
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Ocean freight rates are past peak season on the Transpacific and Asia-North Europe, but a widening gap between the NYFI and SCFI on Asia-US West Coast is raising questions about which number actually reflects the market.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why NYFI and SCFI measure fundamentally different things, and how to spot a "phantom GRI" before it costs you
What index-linked contracts actually protect you from, and how to pick the right index for your business
The current East Coast/West Coast rate divergence and what's driving it
Escalating Middle East shipping risk, including the attack on tankers in Damietta, and why carrier profits aren't proof of market manipulation
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Global schedule reliability slipped again in June, and the gap between carrier alliances is now too wide to ignore.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
June reliability data: global on-time performance down to 63% from 65% in May, holding well below pre-pandemic norms for months running
The alliance breakdown: Gemini at 93.4%, its best showing since launch, versus MSC around 80%, Ocean Alliance around 70%, and Premier Alliance down near 55%
How Sea-Intelligence actually measures reliability, including the three to four week lock-in window and why plus/minus one calendar day is the right yardstick, not the wrong one
NYFI this week: Asia-USWC down 1% to $5,818, Asia-USEC up 7% to $7,793, driven by a capacity split between the two coasts, and Asia-NEUR down 3% at $4,797.
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