Supply Chain Secrets

Asia-Europe spot rates have flattened at the bottom, yet new loading data shows demand growing far faster than rates suggest.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:
Why Asia-Europe rates have bottomed out with no real seasonal uptick yet, and how forward trading on Asia-North Europe moved lower over the past week
The widening gap between Atlantic headhaul and backhaul rates as Eastbound demand weakens
September Container Trade Statistics showing 8.4% global demand growth, 17% on the Transpacific and 21% on Asia-Europe, plus what Maersk’s Q3 volumes say about market share
Red Sea services returning to Suez, no progress in the Strait of Hormuz, and new reported attacks on container ships in the Black Sea

Asia-Europe rates appear to have found their seasonal floor while security threats to shipping spread across three regions.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:

-Why Lars reads Asia-Europe as bottomed out, and what the widening spread between high and low rates signals about a market turn
-Why the Transpacific is unlikely to see a seasonal decline before Chinese New Year, and how new services like ZIM’s ZX3 tend to follow high rates
-Hormuz land bridge limits, a widening Black Sea conflict, and renewed piracy in the Gulf of Aden
-The LA/LB watchmen strike threat and new consolidation among mid-size carriers

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NYFI adds two new indices this week, Asia-Mediterranean and Asia-US Gulf, as Asia-Med rates post their first increase in some time.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:
Asia-Med’s turn, and whether the Europe trades have found a floor
Red Sea normalization at 60% of Asia-Europe capacity, with the Med well ahead of North Europe, and why “normal” can still include sailings around Africa
Why services returning to Suez free up global capacity without adding weekly capacity on Asia-Europe
An orderbook near 47% of the fleet, 1.3 million TEU ordered by the top 10 carriers in two months, and what it could mean for vessel sizes on the Transpacific
Plus: Gemini slips below MSC on schedule reliability, and a new round of US tariffs on Canadian goods.

Transpacific spreads are tightening as the summer rally flattens, while risk in the Strait of Hormuz climbs.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:
Why the narrowing Asia-USWC spread, now about $1,500 per 40-foot, points to growing certainty on price
How carriers prioritizing China loads squeeze space for Korea and Japan cargo, driving sharp swings on Northeast Asia to USEC
Four container ships hit near Hormuz, one sunk, as Gemini’s new Suez service moves Red Sea routings closer to normal
HMM’s new order lifting its orderbook to 32% of fleet, still one of the smallest among the top 16 carriers
Plus: tariff whiplash, an FMC proposal targeting Spanish imports, and a hacker group’s extortion claims against 34 maritime organizations.

Transpacific rates appear to have peaked, Asia to North Europe keeps sliding toward a floor, and the risk picture across the Middle East is getting harder to plan around.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:
Signs of a Transpacific peak, with USWC easing and USEC flattening, and the steady Asia to North Europe decline since July
August demand data: Asia-Europe down 1.7% year on year while the Transpacific grew 10.8%, and why neither trade fits a simple weak or strong label
Iranian attacks well beyond the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi strikes deep into Saudi Arabia, and what shippers can do when rerouting is out of their control
Africa's import growth, OOCL's Q3 results, Asia to East Coast South America service changes, and El Niño risk at the Panama Canal