Supply Chain Secrets

Port congestion is now absorbing 8.5% of the global container fleet, roughly four times the pre-pandemic norm, and it may not clear before the Chinese New Year peak. On NYFI, Asia to US East Coast rates sit at an all-time high, with rates to both US coasts still climbing.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:
Why congestion could push Asia-Europe rates up just as shippers negotiate 2027 contracts in the European tender season
What last week's upward shift in NYFI futures says about how long the market expects tight capacity to last
The October 5 launch of NYFI options contracts on ICE Futures Europe, with a deeper dive next week alongside Peter Stallion of Clarksons
How an orderbook approaching 43% could bring more consolidation and more competition at the same time
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Pacific rates on both U.S. coasts are near 2024 levels, and the data Lars Jensen reviews points to carrier capacity management as the driver.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:
How Pacific vessel utilization has shifted upward since before the pandemic, and what that means for rates
More Gemini and MSC services returning to Suez routing, and who carries the risk if the Red Sea situation deteriorates
Hormuz, where container cargo is moving by land-bridge corridors while bunker fuel prices climb
Maersk's order for 26 vessels and the carrier positioning game heading into the 2030s
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Rich Heath, NYSHEX's VP of Financial Products, joins Lars Jensen as the new co-host this week, stepping in as Caroline Weaver moves on to her next chapter. And there's plenty to dig into on his first episode.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:
Why Asia-US East Coast rates jumped roughly $700/FEU even as North American import demand grew just 1% year-on-year, pointing to capacity, not demand, as the driver
New CTS data showing global trade grew 4.5% in July, and would have been closer to 8% without an estimated 3.7 million TEU of demand lost to the Hormuz Strait crisis since March
Red Sea normalization now at 27% of Asia-Europe capacity, and the new risk building in Yemen as Houthi territorial gains give them more leverage over shipping access
How the futures market is pricing 2027 Asia-Europe tenders, and where shippers may be missing an opportunity to lock in rates ahead of peak season
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This week's Supply Chain Secrets doubles as Caroline Weaver's send off as co-host, and she goes out with the market question everyone's been asking: why have Pacific spot rates gone so volatile? 
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why June and July cargo data show no demand boom on the Pacific, and why the recent spot rate spikes are capacity driven instead
How the Asia-Europe rate cooldown is following a normal seasonal pattern this time, backed by genuine demand growth
Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and new attacks on container vessels in the Black Sea
Why direct port to port service is less commoditized across alliances than most shippers assume
Thank you to Caroline for your energy and insights on the show! 
And, don't worry listeners. The show will go on! 
Rich Heath, NYSHEX's VP of Financial Products, takes over alongside Lars Jensen starting next week. 
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Ocean carrier reliability just hit its lowest point since before the current alliance structure took effect, with typhoon-driven port congestion in Asia dragging Shanghai down to just 21% on-time arrivals in July.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Global vessel reliability at 56% for July, and the 40 percentage point gap separating Gemini's 89.5% from Premier Alliance's sub-50% performance
NYFI's Asia-US sub-lane data, including Northeast Asia's role as a swing capacity market and a fresh split between US East and West Coast rates
Suez Canal normalization now at 19% of Asia-Europe capacity, and what it means for demand growth if that reaches 50%
A reopened split between 20-foot and 40-foot rates on the Trans-Atlantic Westbound lane, plus Q4 bunker and emissions surcharge changes