Supply Chain Secrets

Spot rates on Asia-Europe and Transpacific are climbing fast. The easy explanation is Hormuz. The right explanation is supply and demand, and the data Lars Jensen pulled this week makes the case clearly.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates have now exceeded the Chinese New Year peak and are closing in on summer 2025 levels, with futures pointing higher. Asia-USWC and USEC continue their sustained upward trend
Why the rate surge is driven by demand outpacing capacity, not fuel surcharges: Asia-Europe demand up 12%, Transpacific up 11% in April, with capacity failing to keep pace on both trades
Why the 22% capacity injection planned for Asia-Med in July is a Hormuz spillover effect, not a true demand signal, and what it means for peak season
Hormuz update: Iran-Israel escalation, EU sanctions on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Houthi re-entry into the conflict, and what closing Bab el-Mandeb would mean for Persian Gulf bypass routes
Panama Canal draft restrictions effective July 3rd, what El Niño means for Lake Gatun water levels, and why Lars sees the early action as a positive sign
Why Panamanian flag vessel registrations are dropping 1% per month and what the US-China geopolitical battle has to do with it
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Asia-North Europe
Asia-USWC/USEC

Rates are climbing, carriers are piling on surcharges, and peak season is arriving ahead of schedule. This week Lars Jensen runs the numbers on why the market is where it is and it has everything to do with the Red Sea and almost nothing to do with how consumers are feeling.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why Pacific and Asia-Europe spot rates continue their upward momentum and what the futures curve is signaling for peak season, including a sharp expected pullback as early as September
The statistical relationship between US consumer sentiment and container volumes: Lars ran the analysis and the correlation coefficient is 0.3. There effectively isn't one.
Hormuz update: no deal, drone strikes on Kuwait, a suspected mine in Omani waters, and an MSC 18,000 TEU vessel that went dark for five days and reappeared off West Africa
How CMA-CGM continues to quietly expand its Suez routing while every other carrier goes around Africa
China PMI at exactly 50, and why the raw materials sub-index shooting above 60 post-Hormuz is the inflation signal worth watching
Global trade imbalances since 2019: full containers up 17%, fleet up 43%, TEU miles up 41% and empty container movements up 102%

Freight rates on both Asia-Europe and Transpacific are strengthening and this week Lars breaks down why the driver is fundamentals, not Hormuz. Meanwhile, a vessel explosion in the Gulf of Oman adds fresh tension to an already fragile situation.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why capacity injection on Asia-North Europe and Transpacific is running well below demand growth, and what that means for peak season rates
A breaking report of a vessel explosion in the Gulf of Oman and what it signals about the state of the Hormuz conflict
The five and a half billion dollar added fuel cost burden on the container shipping industry over the past three months and how it compares to total industry EBIT
Gemini Alliance reliability bouncing back to 85% and a standout 98.5% on Asia-US West Coast
The UK ETS taking effect July 1st and the loophole it closes for carriers routing through UK ports
US consumer sentiment hitting its lowest reading since 1952, and whether that translates to freight demand

Transpacific rates are grinding higher into peak season while the Hormuz crisis shows no sign of resolution, and a new weather risk is quietly building for the Panama Canal.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and guest host Don Davis cover:
NYFI spot rate momentum on Asia-US West Coast and Asia-Europe, and what futures rates suggest for the next two months
Iran's tightening grip on Strait of Hormuz traffic, including vessel seizures and a potential threat to subsea data cables
CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd suspending Cuba bookings following new US sanctions
A NOAA upgrade placing a 67% probability on a strong or very strong El Niño, and what that means for Panama Canal capacity heading into 2027
Q1 2026 carrier results: Maersk gained market share; Hapag-Lloyd volume declined year-on-year

Pacific rates are flatlining but peak season signals are building, with freight futures pointing to a $900 per FEU jump on Asia-North Europe by July. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, global container demand fell 2.4% year-on-year in March, and Maersk posted a second consecutive quarter of negative EBIT.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Rate movements across Asia-US West Coast, Asia-US East Coast, and Asia-North Europe, including what freight futures are signaling for peak season
The latest Hormuz developments including two new vessel attacks and the short-lived US military escort operation
March global demand data: why the headline -2.4% masks a world that is otherwise still growing at 5-8%
Maersk Q1 results and what two consecutive quarters of negative EBIT signals for carrier health