Reuters Morning Bid

Crude tops $90 a barrel for the first time since early June as U.S. strikes on Iran enter their ninth day and two tankers are hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are also watching Alphabet's Wednesday earnings, the first of the major hyperscalers to report. Plus, Andy Burnham is formally named Britain's new prime minister and investors wait to learn who will fill the key role of Finance Minister.

Today’s recommended read: Forget crude. War pushes refiners to the brink, Ron Bousso

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest.

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Japanese chip stocks lead a broad sell-off in Asian trading as investors question whether the AI spending cycle has peaked. China's Moonshot unveils what it calls the world's largest open-source AI model as President Xi Jinping hosts a global AI cooperation conference in Beijing. And Netflix shares fall after a second consecutive quarter of disappointing sales growth.

Today’s recommended read: Trump could get a lesson on Iran from an unlikely source — emus, Clyde Russell

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SpaceX has fallen back below its $135 listing price and sits more than 30% off its post-listing peak, with insiders expected to begin selling as lockup periods expire over the coming months. The company has yet to confirm a date for its first earnings report. TSMC's record 77% profit jump offers some relief to chip investors after a rocky week. Plus, the British pound climbs to a one-year high against the euro on UK finance minister speculation.

Today’s recommended read: Fed flip-flops make case for less talk, Mike Dolan

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Europe's ASML raises its full-year revenue forecast, steadying sentiment around AI infrastructure spending after IBM logged its worst single-day stock drop on record. U.S. core CPI posts its first monthly decline in over six years, easing pressure on the Fed. And volatile markets and a busy IPO pipeline hand the big banks a bumper quarter.

Today’s recommended read: China's latest 'shock', German auto pain and the euro/yuan pressure cooker, Mike Dolan

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest.

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A fresh escalation in the Gulf, with Iranian missile attacks on shipping and a U.S. blockade declaration, pushes oil sharply higher and overshadows today's U.S. inflation report. Headline CPI had been forecast to fall below 4%, but with oil re-accelerating, that backward-looking relief may already feel like a moot point. Fed Governor Christopher Waller says core inflation is simply "too high," and markets are now pricing almost a 50% chance of a rate hike as soon as this month. Plus, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces Congress for the first time later today.

Today’s recommended read: China blunted Iran war oil shock, but can it do the same for fuels?, Clyde Russell

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest.

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

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Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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