Magic Markets

The world order is shifting – the US is playing a global-scale game of Risk, the rand is getting stronger, and AI can’t count its ABCs. Amidst the chaos, it’s hard to know which market indicators to listen to.

In this episode of Magic Markets, The Finance Ghost and Moe-Knows dive deep into why US Treasury yields aren't necessarily the best indicator of risk, while highlighting that the rand has clawed its way back to pre-Nenegate levels.

From the potential for missiles to be flying over an annexed Greenland to how Dune can help us understand the oil supply chain, the Ghost and Moe unpack the geopolitical flashpoints that will define your portfolio this year.

This week’s Topics:

The Dollar Index (DXY) vs yields: Why the 10-year Treasury yield is the wrong indicator for US risk right now.

The rand’s Lost Decade recovery: How the ZAR has clawed its way back to 2016 levels and what ‘fair value’ means for your offshore timing.

The death of "There’s War, Buy Oil": Why geopolitical flares in Iran and Venezuela aren't spiking crude prices like they used to.

The credit card cap trap: The unintended consequences of US interest rate caps on Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.

Taiwan and the semiconductor tail risk: Why the US focus on Greenland and LatAm might be emboldening moves in the East.

Reach out to us on X: @MagicMarketsPod, @FinanceGhost and @MohammedNalla or pop us a note on LinkedIn.

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Please speak to your personal financial advisor.

Chapters

(00:00:00) - Introduction & is Canada the 51st State?
(00:02:15) - The US and Geopolitical Risk
(00:03:03) - The US 10-Year yield disconnect: Why isn't borrowing getting costlier?
(00:04:07) - The DXY as the true expression of US risk
(00:05:58) - South African Bonds: The carry trade darling and the SARB’s credibility
(00:08:04) - The rand's 10-year comeback and what fair value means for your offshore goals
(00:10:52) - Central bank independence and gold as a safe haven against a dollar downdraft
(00:13:01) - Interest rate caps: How US policy is hitting Amex and the banking sector
(00:15:43) - Oil & Geopolitics: Venezuela, Iran, and the "Spice Must Flow" problem
(00:21:11) - Taiwan, the semiconductor tail risk, and global choke points
(00:23:12) - AI hallucinations: Why you shouldn't trust the bots just yet

With a new calendar on the wall, there's a lot to consider this year. The world doesn’t behave the same way that our calendars do, with the themes and risks of 2025 bleeding into 2026.

Aside from the obvious (like AI), what can we learn from some of the best-performing sectors in the final quarter of 2025 and over the past 12 months? What regional outlooks are relevant? And perhaps most importantly for most Magic Markets listeners, what does this mean for the rand and the potential for SA Inc. stocks to have a strong year?

It’s time for a new year in the markets and the implementation of strategies to create wealth. Welcome back to Magic Markets and thanks for being here with us!

This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Please speak to your personal financial advisor.

In the final Magic Markets show of 2025, we looked back on a watershed year for geopolitics and the technology sector. With Moe focusing on the macro story and the performance of the various global asset classes, our resident ghost took a bottom-up approach and highlighted the performance of certain stocks in the portfolio.

From US banks through to energy counters and FMCG stocks that threw us a lemon (ahem), there’s much to reflect on. Join us as we bid goodbye to a wild year in the markets and prepare for 2026.

This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Please speak to your personal financial advisor.

With news breaking of Netflix joining the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery and looking to potentially make a huge cash offer to get their hands on the studios, this was a good opportunity to look back at the streaming wars that we've recently covered. It also gave us the perfect opportunity to discuss general M&A concepts, especially the risks that come with the opportunities.

This is topical given our work in Magic Markets Premium this week where we focused on Dick's Sporting Goods now that the Foot Locker deal has closed.

M&A always captures the imagination of investors, but caution is warranted.

This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Please speak to your personal financial advisor.

With the G20 in the rearview mirror in South Africa, we took the opportunity to discuss Moe's views on the geopolitical shenanigans from a North American perspective (for the benefit of new listeners: he has lived in Canada for several years).

We also talked about the other big theme at the moment: AI and technology stocks, particularly in light of some pretty nasty sell-offs. Having just covered NVIDIA in Magic Markets Premium, this was a good opportunity to take a look at how some of the big names have performed this year.

This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Please speak to your personal financial advisor.