Global Data Pod

A week of mixed signals on our call for a cyclical lift has us scratching our heads. The surveys for July are flashing green for a strong pickup in the pace of activity this quarter. Unfortunately, what we have viewed as the key ingredient for this lift went cold last month as US jobs came in with a thud. How much signal to take from this latest sign of weakness in US hiring will tell the tale for growth and central bank policy for 2H26.

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 7 August 2026. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The view is tracking a cyclical lift that comes with job growth, which in turn will amplify already elevated inflation concerns and spark a central bank turn toward tightening. Whether the mood around this call is shifting for the better or not is up for debate given ongoing downside worries. Against this backdrop, Chair Warsh’s performance in conveying an effective Fed policy path is also up for debate.

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 31 July 2026. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss the solid 2Q26 GDP reports and the (relative) clarity of central bank speak in Western Europe. 

This podcast was recorded on 30 July 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. 

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson to discuss the latest inflation developments and the outlook for the second half. The pullback in energy prices delivered a sizable disinflationary impulse in June, but that inflation drag is unlikely to persist unless oil prices move lower again. Global core inflation eased in June, but owed largely to a soft US print which may be understating underlying momentum. Through the noise, global core inflation remains sticky at closer to 3%––a level we expect to be maintained during 2H26. Lower food inflation has helped to temper the energy shock, but risks are for a turn higher as El Niño intensifies. 

 

This podcast was recorded on July 30, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5381620-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5352836-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5372703-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5370262-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5368433-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The outlook has been viewed through the lens of a strong cyclical lift clashing with a set of geopolitical drags. The past week has delivered positive news on the cycle, but this also comes with news of an intensifying energy shock and trade war. As central banks weigh these forces, they are remaining constructive on growth and thus focus is on ongoing inflation pressures.

 

Speaker:

Bruce Kasman 

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 24 July 2026. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.