The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh

The arrival of Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve marked a regime shift. At its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dropped its easing bias, opening the door to interest rate hikes as supply shocks collide with hotter demand. The Fed also announced five new task forces to evaluate key priorities, from inflation frameworks to AI's impact on productivity and the labor market. Under Warsh, the central bank sent an unmistakable message: This is just the opening act for a very different Fed.
James Bullard, former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and current Dean of the Mitch Daniels School of Business at Purdue University, joins PGIM's Daleep Singh to analyze the start of the Warsh era at the Fed. They discuss policy challenges from inflation's resurgence, the case for lower rates over the long run, and potential market implications if the Fed changes how it conducts monetary policy.
The conversation also covers:
The Fed's reaction function amid policy shifts and economic transformation
Emerging similarities to the Fed's Greenspan era
How changes to Fed communications and forward guidance could influence markets
Economic outcomes from the AI boom – and why fears of job destruction might be overblown

The military concept of escalation dominance posits that the side controlling the pace and pain of a conflict determines the outcome. For most of the Cold War era, the U.S. had escalation dominance—militarily, technologically, and economically—but the use of economic statecraft was limited. That era is over. As great power competition intensifies, the relationship between the U.S. and China offers a view into where competition is headed and what it means for global stability. While the U.S.-China summit resulted in an effective truce, there are deeper takeaways that investors and other observers should consider.
PGIM's Daleep Singh welcomes Julian Gewirtz, former Senior Director for China and Taiwan Affairs at the National Security Council, to discuss the U.S.-China stalemate and the economic long game. The conversation covers topics including:
Geopolitical and economic takeaways from the summit
China's efforts to buy time—and potential U.S. policy responses
Technological competition, including AI, chips and related minerals
Strategies aimed at achieving AI superiority in pursuit of national interests

Global conflicts are increasingly playing out in the economic arena, not just on the battlefield. The war in Iran represents a collision of both. Physical and financial chokepoints can be used for strategic leverage; they also raise potential vulnerabilities. To unpack how and why economic warfare is reshaping the macro landscape, Daleep Singh speaks with Edward Fishman, author of "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare" and Senior Fellow and Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations. 
The discussion explores how investors can evaluate resilience to economic vulnerabilities, the future of economic statecraft amid heightened geopolitical competition, and chokepoints that investors should be watching in the future.

Marc Sumerlin, Managing Partner at Evenflow Macro and former Deputy Director of the White House National Economic Council under President George W. Bush, joins Daleep Singh for a conversation about economic transformation on this episode of PGIM's The Outthinking Investor.
Daleep and Marc talk about macro shocks stemming from the Iran war, how U.S. budget deficits will influence policy rates and the economy, and the relationship between monetary and fiscal authorities in a new age of economic competition.  
The discussion also covers: 
The impact of tariffs and AI on the labor market
Monetary policy challenges when navigating an energy shock
The future of the U.S.-China trade relationship

Daleep welcomed Kurt for an in-depth look at the U.S.-China relationship and the Iran war's implications for Asia-Pacific. Speaking in front of a live audience, they also discussed how geopolitical shifts are reshaping economies, strategic leverage lurking in critical supply chains, and the outlook for Japan.