JSE Direct with Simon Brown

In the final show of the year Simon looks back at the many local and offshore winners (and a few losers) of 2024. There have been some excellent returns, but will they carry on into 2025?

  Boxer IPO Hits the Market Boxer* (JSE code will be BOX) lists on 28 November, debuting at R54/share after a highly oversubscribed IPO. Strategies discussed for trading or investing in Boxer shares, including buying through Pick n Pay shares. Key takeaway: Patience is key; wait for potential pullbacks. Two-Pot Retirement Savings and Market Impact Early evidence of consumer spending from the two-pot retirement system. Stocks like Mr. Price*, Pepkor, and Keith McLachlan’s picks (e.g., Afrimat, Netcare) reviewed as beneficiaries. Satrix 40 ETF Turns 24 Launched in 2000, the Satrix 40 has delivered an annualized return of 11.3%. Impact: Introduced passive investing and slashed fees for South African investors. Bitcoin's Psychological Barrier at $100,000 Bitcoin fell short of the $100K milestone, retracing to around $93K. Analysis of big psychological levels in markets and what this means for Bitcoin's momentum. Bitcoin | Weekly | 27 November 2024 Anglo-Platinum Share Sale Anglo-American reduces its stake in Anglo-Platinum, selling at cycle lows. Discussion on PGM market challenges and future outlook. Trump’s Proposed Tariffs Announced 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports and 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada. Potential economic implications and geopolitical fallout analysed. Rand, DXY, and Gold The Rand holds surprisingly well despite DXY strength; predictions for 2024 suggest potential recovery. Gold price fluctuations and long-term bullish outlook. US$ Index (DXY) | Weekly | 27 November 2024 Commodity Spotlight: Coffee and Cocoa Coffee prices hit 20-year highs due to Brazilian droughts, impacting consumer costs. Cocoa prices stabilise after a surge, with Nestlé and soft commodity ETFs in focus. Super Group and SG Fleet Deal SG Fleet receives a buyout offer, boosting share prices. Opportunities in second-tier stocks like Invicta and Hudaco highlighted for a potentially improving economic environment. MPC Update South African Reserve Bank increases rates by 0.25%, citing risks from core inflation and external pressures. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Boxer IPO Insights 03:08 Two-Pot Money and Consumer Spending Trends 06:03 Satrix 40: A 24-Year Retrospective 08:51 Bitcoin's Psychological Barriers and Market Sentiment 11:40 Anglo-American's Strategic Moves and Market Reactions 14:58 Commodity Prices: Coffee and Cocoa Trends 17:49 Monetary Policy Committee Decisions and Economic Outlook jj  

  October Inflation Local CPI at 2.8%, yet prime is 11.5% ahead of the MPC decision this afternoon. The gap is far to wide, SARB needs to cut aggressively. South Africa | Prime vs. CPI Gold and Bitcoin Gold has bounced, but is this for real? Bitcoin heading for US$100k Rand weakness The US$ remains string and is hurting the Rand. US$ Index Astral results Good results Paid back R1.1billion short-term debt But volatile, a trading stock. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

  Market Overview Crypto Surge, Gold Decline: Bitcoin rallies as investors shift from gold to crypto. Gold hit a recent high of $2,800 but is now pulling back, possibly towards $2,300-$2,400. Central banks continue to buy gold as a hedge against U.S. dollar dominance and geopolitical risks. [caption id="attachment_43623" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Gold | Weekly | 13 November 2024 Rand Weakness: The ZAR weakened above 18 to the dollar, driven by strong U.S. dollar demand amidst market volatility. South African Rand overshoots due to its high liquidity, making it vulnerable to sharp moves. Trump's Impact on Crypto Market speculation suggests Trump may be crypto-friendly, unlike the current SEC chair Gary Gensler, known for his strict regulatory stance. Potential shifts in the regulatory landscape could benefit cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. Simon holds Bitcoin and advises caution: ensure crypto is stored in a hardware wallet for safety. Bitcoin | Weekly | 13 November 2024 Local Telco Sector: Vodacom & MTN Both companies struggle with weakened African currencies like the Ethiopian Birr and Egyptian Pound. Profits are impacted when converted back to ZAR. Despite attractive dividend yields (MTN ~4%, Vodacom ~5.6%), Simon remains bearish, highlighting high capex demands and sector challenges. Raubex: Construction Sector Bright Spot Strong results from Raubex, showing resilience in a struggling sector. Diversification into renewable energy and mining operations boosts performance. Simon notes it as one of the few quality construction plays left, alongside Afrimat. Consumer Market Struggles Updates from AVI and BidCorp indicate persistent weak consumer demand, despite optimism from a possible government of national unity. Inflation has eased, but consumer spending remains subdued as households repair balance sheets. Retail updates show mixed results: Truworths reported disappointing numbers, while The Foschini Group* performed better. Tencent Results Tencent posted strong results, though it did not significantly boost Naspers or Prosus stock prices. The market reaction was muted despite the solid performance. Final Thoughts The market remains volatile, with significant moves in crypto, gold, and the Rand. Simon advises a cautious approach, with a focus on quality stocks and long-term plays. Remember: be kind and look out for others. Kindness is rule number one. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview: Crypto vs Gold 02:50 The Trump Effect on Gold and Crypto 06:01 The Future of the Rand and Emerging Markets 08:55 Sector Analysis: Vodacom, MTN, and Raubex 16:02 Consumer Trends and Company Updates gg