WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

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The Best, and Worst, on the JSE in 2025
🌍 Worldwide Markets — Episode 660 🎙️ The Best and Worst of the JSE in 2025 📅 10 December 2025 🎧 Final episode of the year — back 14 January 2026 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft 🏁 Opening Thoughts Last podcast of 2025! 🎉 A huge thank-you to listeners, watchers and everyone who engaged across the year 🙏 A wild year for markets, but a great year for returns 📈 Wishing everyone a restful and safe festive break ✈️🌞 🎥 Power Hour Recap — Position Your Portfolio for 2026 📌 Highlights included: 🔙 Looking back at 2025's predictions (keeping it honest!) 🤖 The state of AI: spotting bubbles, when to worry, triggers to watch 💰 Gold & commodities outlook 🛍️ Local retail — opportunities & risks 🚀 IPO environment 🧭 Positioning for 2026 Watch here. 🥇 Best Performers of the JSE in 2025 🪙 1. Precious Metals: The Dominant Theme of 2025 Gold & PGM miners absolutely owned the market this year. If you weren't in them… your portfolio lagged the benchmark. Top returns (total return to 8 Dec): 🥇 Sibanye-Stillwater* — +258% 🤯 🥈 AngloGold Ashanti* — ~+240% 🥉 Northam — +214% 🏅 Gold Fields — +195% Implats — +153% Thungela / Valterra / others — 130–140% range Harmony — +119% 📌 Why the boom? Gold price exploded early in the year 🌕 Safe-haven flows amid tariff drama, budgets, DeepSeek shock Strong production + not-yet-expensive valuations 💬 Simon: Still bullish on gold miners — not expecting another double, but valuations remain attractive if gold holds current levels. 🎓 2. Education Sector Winners 🎓 Stadio — +89% 🧑‍🏫 Killed it with distance learning demand and tertiary approvals 📉 Curo delisted; ADvTech* solid with +20% 🟣 3. Purple Group* & EasyEquities +87% 🚀 Bull markets = busy brokers Results were slightly soft in H2 (bonuses cycle), but long-term story intact 📡 4. Telcos Roar Back (From a Very Low Base) 📱 MTN — +76% 🔵 Blue Label — +73% (Cell C momentum) 🔌 IOCA — +65% ☎️ Telkom — +60% 🟥 Vodacom — +38% 📌 Simon sold MTN a decade ago during the Nigerian fine panic — and never re-entered. Lesson: When it's time to panic, panic fast. 💰 5. Standout Financials & Miscellaneous 🟪 Sygnia — +72% 💻 Datatec — +70% (surprise performer) 🍗 Astral — +49% (thanks, cheaper maize!) 🐓 Rainbow Chicken — +43% 🏢 Growthpoint — +48% (big dividends) 🧱 Property sector broadly strong again: Redefine, Octodec, etc. 🏦 PSG Financial Services — +40% 💼 Capitec — +29% 🏦 Standard Bank — +31% — notably ahead of Capitec 🟧 Naspers — +25% (Simon sees opportunity post-share split) 🛢️ Sasol — +25% (still not a favourite) 🛒 6. Retail: The Year's Big Disappointment 🛋️ Lewis — +22% (but deep down the list) 🥩 Spur — +15% 🍗 Famous Brands — –16% 🛒 Shoprite* — –4.6% (value emerging) 🛍️ Pick n Pay — –17% (slow turnaround) 👗 Mr Price* — –26% (Simon still sees value) 👟 Pepkor — weak, but potential for recovery 🔻 Worst Performers of the JSE in 2025 💥 Biggest Losers 🚨 Nutun / Transaction Capital legacy — –52% 👗 Foschini* (TFG) — –50% 📄 Sappi — –46% (ongoing structural challenges) 🧱 Afrimat — –43% (Lafarge integration still tough; Simon sees opportunity) 💉 Aspen — –43% (lost sterile facility contract; utilization still weak) 🔧 Cashbuild — –37% (SA consumers tapped out) 📺 eMedia — heavy selling post-unbundling 🛒 Retailers Under Pressure 🥀 Spar — –28% (competition from Boxer + Shoprite* + Pick n Pay) 👖 Mr Price* — –26% 🍔 Famous Brands — –16% 🍩 Life Healthcare, Renergen*, ArcelorMittal SA — all struggling 📉 Macro, Risks & 2026 Outlook 🌱 Green Shoots in South Africa Early signs of improvement appearing Fragile but real: improving volumes, some recovery in SA Inc, stabilising consumer pockets REITs & banks starting from low valuations ⚠️ Risks Moody's kept SA unchanged; risks tilt to the downside A global AI bubble burst would hit emerging markets hard External shocks more dangerous than local issues 📈 Global Watch: The Mag 7 & Market Signals Bubble warning model: Two giants below the 200-day MA Meta dipped back below — but still only one of the seven triggering Nvidia chart still healthy Gold still bullish Oil looks very weak 🤝 Closing the Year Simon wraps 2025 with gratitude and optimism: ✨ "It's been a year — a wild one — but at least we got returns." ❄️ Be safe this festive season 🙌 Special thanks to those working through December (retail, hospitality, logistics) 🎙️ Back 14 January 2026 with the annual predictions show featuring Keith McLachlan & Marc Ashton — and, as always, they'll mark themselves before forecasting ahead. 🔗 Powered By 🏦 Standard Bank Global Markets 🌍 Shyft – the global money app 💸 Cheapest Forex rates, anywhere, anytime Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
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It's been a year, but markets loved it
Worldwide Markets – Episode 659 Show Notes "It's Been a Year… But Markets Loved It" 📆 3 December 2025 🎙️ Host: Simon Brown 🏦 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft — the global money app. 🌍 Opening: A Wild Year That Somehow Ended Beautifully Despite chaos from January to April — tariffs, collapsing markets, surging yields, rand at 19.90 — markets still delivered a stellar year. If you had gone on holiday 1 Jan and checked your portfolio today, you'd think it was a boring year… but Yowza! It was anything but. Reminder: Wall Street ≠ Main Street — markets often move ahead of economic reality. 🤖 AI Chaos in January: DeepSeek Shakes the Market Chinese model DeepSeek stunned the AI world, training for ~$6m vs OpenAI's multi-billion dollar spend. Raised questions: cheaper API access, open-source surge, China's rapid AI emergence. Set the tone for a year of AI leapfrogging between global players. 🇺🇸 The Trump Factor: Tariffs Everywhere Trump sworn in (20 Jan) → tariffs on Mexico & Canada within days. Tore up the post-WW2 geopolitical playbook → raised questions of US reliability going forward. Triggered global uncertainty but markets... shrugged. 🇿🇦 Local Madness: The Three Budget Attempts SA tried three times to get a budget passed. Rand collapses into "Liberation Tariff Day", hits 19.90 → quickly followed by "90 deals in 90 days" promises. Only three months in and the year was already unhinged. 📉 April Market Meltdown… Followed by a Stunning Recovery US 10-yr at 4.5%, US equities down 15%, local markets collapsing, bonds selling off. By December → Nikkei near highs, Europe at highs, JSE powered by gold, US pushed by the Mag 7. Markets looked glorious by year-end, despite everything. 🎙️ Upcoming: Best-Performing JSE Stocks of 2025 Spoiler: Gold miners will dominate. Full breakdown coming next week in the final show of 2025. 🖼️ NanoBanana & Gemini: AI Image Tools Blow Simon's Mind Simon has used DALL·E heavily for two years — but: ❌ slow ❌ bad at text ❌ struggles with edits NanoBanana + Gemini 3: ⚡ insanely fast 🔠 perfect text edits 🎨 clean output Alphabet has: 💰 massive free cash flow 🌐 billions of users 📢 advertising infrastructure → Giving them a potential edge in AI monetisation (for now). 📈 AI Stock Bubble: Is It Popping? Nvidia chart not bearish — holding support around 165–166 and bouncing. Mag 7 vs 200-day moving average: ⬇️ Only Meta is below. Microsoft, Amazon still comfortably above. Conclusion: 🤯 We are in a bubble… but it's not bursting yet. More insights coming in the Power Hour. [caption id="attachment_55081" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Nvidia weekly chart | 01 December 2025[/caption] 🪙 Bitcoin: The Chart Looks Ugly Trump is the most pro-crypto president ever, but BTC isn't reacting positively. Peaked at $126k in October → now around $87k. Breaking support levels: ⚠️ If current zone doesn't hold → sub-$70k likely. Gold vs Bitcoin comparison: 🥇 Gold behaves like a hedge. ₿ Bitcoin remains a speculative asset, not a store of value or inflation hedge. [caption id="attachment_55082" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Bitcoin weekly chart | 02 December 2025[/caption] 🇿🇦 South African GDP: Some Bright Spots Q3 2025 GDP: 📈 +0.5% QoQ 📈 +2.1% YoY 🚧 Gross fixed capital formation +1.6% → first strong rise since Q2 2023. Means: building → roads, dams, solar, infrastructure — very positive. 🏦 Banks Benefit Most Reasons: 👍 GDP uptick ⬆️ Credit upgrades ⬇️ Lower expected inflation ⬇️ Lower rates coming 🟩 Off the grey list Valuations: Price-to-book: 1.0–1.5× Yields: high single digits Winners depend on style: 💸 Deep value → ABSA, Nedbank ⚖️ Balanced → Standard Bank, FNB 🦄 Premium → Capitec (always expensive) 🏢 Shaftesbury (UK REIT): One to Watch Formerly Capital & Counties. Own Covent Garden & key West End locations. Never recovered from Brexit: from £4 → now £1.42. Fundamentals: 💰 Single-digit PE (~8) 📉 Yield 2.7% 📊 Analyst range: £1.48–£2.10 Not a buy yet — but on the watchlist due to prime assets. 🏘️ SA Property: The Easy Money Is Gone SA REITs had: 🚀 Huge 2024 📈 Strong 2025 Many now trade around NAV: Storage, Spear, Vukile → at/near NAV Octodec → still at discount Simon prefers 15% discount to NAV before buying. Markets have closed the gap — valuations now full. If REITs move to 10–15% premiums, Simon will run. 🔮 Next Week: Final Show of 2025 Full list of best and worst JSE performers of the year. Small caps that surprised everyone. Then → back week of 12 Jan with Marc Ashton & Keith McLachlan for the annual predictions episode. 👋 Wrap-Up A shorter show this week, but packed with market insight, AI breakthroughs, Bitcoin trouble, UK property opportunities, and SA's slow-but-positive GDP recovery. As always: 💙 Look after yourself. 🤝 And if you can, look after someone else too. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
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Best and worst JSE Stocks Over the Last Decade
dd 🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 658 📅 26 November 2025 🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft 🔥 This Week's Big Themes 📊 JSE 10-year returns — miners dominate! 💽 Nvidia results: great numbers, strange market reaction 🥇 Harmony goes big on copper 🛠️ SA Inc sleeper stock ready to run with GDP recovery 📦 Process/Tencent update: super-app dreams + buybacks 🧠 Standard Bank launches new AI structured product 🎯 Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2026 (8 December) 🏭 Invicta Results — A Deep Value SA Inc Play 🏗️ Capital equipment group with exposure to SA, EU, US & Asia. 🌍 Tariffs hit their China → US shipments. 💰 Valuation extremely cheap: PE Dividend yield > 3% Price-to-book: 0.7 🚧 SA's weak GDP is the drag — but a recovery to 1.8% → 2% → 3% could turn this into a major SA Inc winner. ⚙️ Manufacturers sweating assets = more parts sold = small cyclical buffer. 🥢 Prosus / Naspers / Tencent — Cash Flow Turns Positive 💵 First positive free cash flow ever → +$59m vs -$104m. 💰 Billions of $ in cash reserves. 🍔 Food delivery (iFood, etc.) gaining scale + working toward a unified "super-app" model. 🧧 Still overwhelmingly driven by Tencent, but: 🎮 Tencent Games 🎵 Tencent Music 📺 Online ads 📱 WeChat ecosystem 🎥 Epic Games stake 🎞️ TikTok-style platforms 🔄 Ongoing share buybacks funded by selling Tencent into Hong Kong. 💻 Nvidia — Big Beat, Yet the Stock Falls? 📈 Beat on revenue, profit, and guidance — classic Nvidia. 🤔 But inventory jumped 32%, raising questions about demand visibility. 🏭 Meta reportedly exploring Google chips, with Amazon & Google also pushing their own silicon. ⚠️ Non-Nvidia chips = slower + higher power usage → still "B-grade". 📉 Technically: Support at ~$180 Next support ~$166 Further support ~$150s 🎈 Bubble chatter now turning into "yes, it is a bubble" — but bubbles go UP before they pop. 📉 Mag-7 200-day MA signals: Only Meta sits below (-10%). Microsoft almost there (+1.5%). Amazon also soft (+5%). 🥇 Harmony — From Gold to Copper Giant? 🪙 Buying + building the Eva copper project in Australia. 🧱 Production cost: $2.50/lb copper (vs spot ~$4.50–$5.25). ⛏️ Harmony is shifting from pure gold → gold + copper, diversifying earnings. 🎙️ Jimmy Moyaha's view: ✔️ Good blend of cyclical exposures ✔️ Some risk hedging between metals ⛏️ Deep SA gold mines = harder + costlier → copper is a logical hedge. 🔌 Copper = "metal of the future" (again) due to electrification & green tech. 🧠 Standard Bank AI Structured Product (Now Open!) 🧺 Basket: 🇺🇸 US Tech (NASDAQ) 🇨🇳 China Tech (KWEB) 💸 Auto-call feature: Year 1: If both indices are positive → 16% payout If not, each subsequent year with positivity → 16% per year Max 5-year horizon = up to 80% 🛡️ Capital protection: 100% capital back if indices not more than 30% down at maturity 💵 Minimum: R25,000 (+ R1,000 increments) 🗓️ Closing: 3 December 2025 📍 Available via OST or your stockbroker. 📈 10-Year JSE Winners — The Miners Dominate 🥇 Top Performers (per-year returns, excluding dividends) 🥇 Harmony Gold — 43.5% p.a. (3600% total!) 🥈 Gold Fields — 37% 🥉 Kumba Iron Ore — 33% (42% incl. dividends) ⚒️ Exxaro — 28% + 12% dividends ⚙️ Northam Platinum — 28.5% 🇬🇧 Argent — 27% (first non-miner) 💼 African Rainbow Capital / Valterra — 25% 🏦 Capitec — 22.5% + dividends → 24% total 🛠️ Bell Equipment, Merafe, Sibanye — strong ~19%+ 🌐 Datatec — 19% + 17% dividends → 37% 📉 Big Losers (per-year declines) 🪓 Eskom (ELI / ACO) — -26% 📦 Nampak — -18% 🛏️ City Lodge — -14.5% 🧪 ArcelorMittal — -14% 💊 Aspen — -10% 🛢️ Sasol — -10% 🏘️ Balwin — -7% 🍔 Famous Brands — -7% 🧱 PPC — -5% 🛒 Pick n Pay — -5% 🏥 Netcare — -4.8% 🧺 Woolworths — 2.4% p.a. (only 1.4% incl. dividends) 📊 Top 40 — 10-Year Benchmark Performance 📈 118% total return over 10 years 📉 CAGR: 8.2% (≈10.5% incl. dividends) 📌 Best period: 11.6% (2019) 📌 Worst: ~3% during crisis 🎯 Real return (CPI ~5%): ≈7% — very respectable. 📣 Call to Action 💬 Tell us in the comments: Which 10-year winners do you own? Which stats shocked you most? What's your best-performing JSE stock of the last decade?
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Good Things Happening in SA | How to Spot the Bubble Popping
Worldwide Markets — Episode 657 (19 November 2025) 🗓️📈 🔥 This Week on Worldwide Markets Good things are happening in South Africa 🇿🇦, bubble-watching on global markets 🎈, fresh ETF listings from Ninety One 📊, strong local results (Astral 🐔, WeBuyCars 🚗, Ninety One 💼), and the Year-End Power Hour opens for bookings 🎤✨. 🎈 Bubble Talk: When Does It Pop? Guest Insight: Citigroup's Dirk Willer (via Odd Lots podcast) Definition: A bubble = asset prices 2 standard deviations above the 1-year average. His exit rule: ➡️ Identify the drivers — the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta). ➡️ The bubble pops when 2 of the 7 fall below their 200-day EMA 📉. Current Status: Meta: 12% below the 200-day ❗ Microsoft: +5.4% above Amazon: +6.5% above Others still safely above. 👉 So we're halfway to bubble-popping territory. 👉 But: bubbles make money on the way up — timing the exit is the key. Fun fact: Alphabet has negative net debt (more cash than debt) 💰. 📊 Ninety One Lists Two Actively Managed Income ETFs Two new AMETFs hit the JSE: 🇿🇦 91DINC (Local Income ETF) Quarterly dividends TER: ~0.25% (incl VAT) Tax-free account eligible ~20-year unit trust track record 🌍 91GINC (Global Income ETF) Accumulating (rolls up dividends) ~9% USD yield target Pays in ZAR on the JSE ~4.5% current USD yield Full explainer webcast here 🎥. 🇿🇦 Good Things Happening in South Africa Yes, things are still tough — but several green shoots 🌱: 1️⃣ Greylist Exit SA officially removed — major reputational win ✔️. 2️⃣ Medium-term Budget Positives Debt trajectory stabilising (may not hit 80%). Primary budget surplus — only ~6 countries globally manage this. Bond yields down ≈2%, reducing future borrowing costs. Precious metals boom boosting revenue 🪙⬆️. 3️⃣ New Inflation Target Formalised 3% target, with a 2–4% band 🎯. Helps competitiveness for exporters like citrus 🍊. 4️⃣ MPC Outlook Inflation at 3.4% — within band Simon expects a rate cut on Thursday ✂️💸. 5️⃣ Credit Rating Upgrade S&P: Upgraded SA from 3-notches Junk → 2-notches Junk. First upgrade in 16 years ⭐ Positive outlook — another upgrade possible. Moody's review coming in December. 6️⃣ Load Shedding Gone (for now) Effectively no load shedding for months ⚡😊. Operation Vulindlela turning to Transnet next 🚢. 7️⃣ GNU Functioning Smoothly Budget passed without drama Coalition politics fading into the background — exactly where they should be. ⚠️ But: Chronic unemployment (31%+) 😔 Inequality, poverty, crime remain severe issues → Growth is the only way to tackle these sustainably. 🎤 Year-End Power Hour — Book Now! Theme: Position Your Portfolio for 2026 Limited in-person seats Webcast available Simon reviews last year's predictions (and mocks himself 🤣) Then looks at 2026: gold, rand, upgrades, tariffs, etc. 👉 Book here 📈 Company Results Round-Up 🐔 Astral Foods A horror first half… turned around: What improved: Avian flu mostly gone; vaccination up to 30% Power issues stabilised Independent water supply Yellow maize prices lower 🌽⬇️ Pricing back to Dec 2023 levels Outlook: CEO Gary Arnold expects a strong FY to Sept 2025. More upside if maize stays low. 🚗 WeBuyCars Trading update spooked the market — PE dropped from mid-20s → high teens. Pressures: Cheap new Chinese cars (R300k range) compete aggressively 🇨🇳 Slower earnings growth (~mid-teens) Their response: Lower buying prices in segments competing with Chinese brands Future tailwind: cheap Chinese cars will enter second-hand market soon Record 16,000 monthly sales Scale still growing Valuation: Simon sees value emerging in the low-40s 👀. 💼 Ninety One (Asset Manager) Strong numbers; bull markets = good for AUM Market sold it off (priced for perfection?) PE ~11, DY ~6% — cheap metrics Analysts: 2 buys, 2 holds, 1 strong sell Price target avg ≈ R47.34 (around current price) 🏛️ Coronation Last year's SARS case win inflated the base → No repeat special dividends → Lower YoY numbers expected. 💱 Rand & Commodities 🇿🇦 Rand Broke below 17/USD last week (first time since early 2023) Now back around 17.20 Trend still strengthening — more in the Year-End Power Hour. 🪙 Gold Holding firm, not running Key levels: Support: ~R39,20 Risk: Lower highs + lower lows if it breaks Currently steady around R4,050. 📉 Markets & Crypto S&P drawdown: ~3.5–4% Nasdaq: ~5–5.5% → Much panic for not much movement 🤷‍♂️. ₿ Bitcoin Looking rough under R90,000 ⚙️ Nvidia Earnings — Wednesday A major market catalyst. Bad numbers could turn sentiment quickly. 🔭 Coming Up Next Week Simon looks at JSE top performers over the last 10 years 📈 (Spoiler: several gold miners… but almost all gains from the last year.) Then it's December wrap-ups → and back in January. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
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JSE in the Cross Hairs (and Proposing Changes) | Don't Fight the Trend
Worldwide Markets – Episode 656 (12 November) Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand 🌍💸 1) JSE Under Pressure 🏛️⚖️ Two issues in the spotlight: a) Competition Commission Complaint A2X alleges JSE is being anti-competitive around BDA & settlement. This could have a long regulatory process. No quick outcomes expected. b) Matengu Allegations Matengu alleges share price manipulation and claims to have emails implicating JSE directors. JSE has fired back and asked: Produce the emails. There is also a clear seller overhang (ex-director wanting out), which explains the price pressure more plausibly. Takeaway: Overhang selling often looks like manipulation. But without proof, it's just selling pressure. 2) Should We Scrap SENS Announcements & HEPS? 🤔📰 The JSE is consulting on two potential changes: Reduce some SENS announcements (e.g., administrative ETF notices, floating rate resets, etc.) Possibly remove HEPS (Headline Earnings Per Share) Simon's view: 🚫 Do not remove HEPS. HEPS is invaluable as an adjusted earnings measure, especially in SA where one-off corporate events are common. The process cost argument doesn't justify removing a critical metric. 4) Don't Fight the Trend 🟢📈 Two strong trends right now: a) Gold 🥇 Back above $4,100/oz after two brief red weeks. Long-term trend still strongly up. No point trying to call tops – enjoy the trend while it runs. b) Rand 🇿🇦💪 Strengthening since the "liberation blowout" in April (~19.90). Now around R17.14 – and trend still down (strengthening). This is not just USD weakness. Big inflows into SA bonds + stronger commodity prices supporting. Next key level: R17 → If broken, expect move to low R15s. 5) Results Round-Up 📊💼 Company Sector Key Takeaways Outlook Stor-Age* REIT / Self-storage SA strong, UK okay. Trading near NAV (R17.77). Yield ~7%. Fairly valued, solid operator. Premier Group Bread, food manufacturing Revenue +6%, HEPS +27%. Efficiency gains + declining input costs. Not cheap, but high quality compounder. GE Aerospace (formerly General Electric) Aviation Engines & Service 75% of commercial planes use GE turbines. Service business = high margin recurring revenue. Trend beneficiary as global travel grows. Expensive, but maybe deserved. 6) KAP (PG Bison, UniTrans, beds, auto aftermarket) 🛏️🚚🛠️ Earnings slump → PE looked blown out, but forward expectations show return to single-digit PE once capex is absorbed. Small-caps remain deeply unloved. Worth watching, but needs a catalyst. 7) Gold Miners – Pick Your Favourite ⛏️✨ If gold keeps running, most producers will make serious money. Simon's preferences: AngloGold Ashanti* (ANG) – strong price action, holding trends well. Pan African (PAN) – up 7x since Oct 2022. Others: Harmony – now has meaningful copper exposure. Sibanye* – gold + PGMs. ETF option: Satrix RESI* – doubled this year (helped heavily by gold). ⏳ How long to hold? While gold trend remains intact. Events & Dates 🗓️ Monday 17 November @ 10:00 – 91 Income ETFs webcast Book: justonelap.com/events Friday 8 December – Final Power Hour: "Position Your Portfolio for 2026" Bookings open next week. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
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