The Flip Side

For over three decades, the US Federal Reserve has moved towards greater transparency, introducing new ways of communicating its outlook to markets. Weeks into his tenure, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reversing that trend. He scrapped forward guidance and opted out of the dot plot, arguing that markets have become overly focused on interpreting Fed signals. ​
In this episode of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research, debate whether markets have become too reliant on central bank communication and what may happen without it. They explore the evolution of Fed transparency, the risk of market volatility if the Fed goes quiet, and whether investors may ultimately benefit from being forced to focus more closely on economic fundamentals.​
The discussion also considers the current macro backdrop and whether a period of inflation uncertainty, oil shocks and market repricing is the right moment for the Fed to take a different approach.​
Listeners can learn more about this topic:​
Flip Side ep. 80: Is US equities exceptionalism finally cracking?​
Barclays Brief ep.34: The Fed’s next move​

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live:​
United States: Interest Rates: Returning to the old normal​
Macrocast - US in Focus: Warshspeak​

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There are two sides to every story, including in markets. On The Flip Side podcast, two Barclays Research analysts offer perspectives from different angles as they debate the economic and market themes that matter most to investors and business leaders.
Each month this award-winning podcast will inform your view through contrasting positions, revealing the nuances that emerge when ideas are tested, challenged and pushed further.
Through this debate, our analysts surface the dynamics that may be missed in headline‑driven narratives. The result? A clearer, more rounded understanding of what’s really moving markets that helps you make more informed decisions.

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Artificial intelligence is moving off the screen and into the real economy. For investors, that shifts the focus from software productivity to how labour, capital and markets themselves could be repriced.
With machines, such as humanoid robots, increasingly taking on physical tasks, from driving and cleaning to providing healthcare, the question isn’t just how much productivity improves. It’s who benefits, how quickly economies adjust, and what gets disrupted along the way.
In Episode 84 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and Head of FX & EM Macro Strategy Themos Fiotakis dig into that tension. On the one hand, history suggests that major technological shifts ultimately create wealth, expand output and spawn new industries. On the other, those transitions can be slow, uneven, and politically and economically destabilising, especially if labour displacement outpaces the ability of economies to adjust.
The conversation moves from theory to markets. What does stronger productivity mean for equity returns? Could capital-intensive AI investment push up yields and debt issuance? And if adoption is uneven, which currencies benefit first?
What emerges is a familiar “flip side” dynamic: the long-term story may be compelling, but the path to get there could be far more volatile than expected.
Clients of the Investment Bank can read further analysis of these themes in ‘Embodied AI: Wealth creation or economic displacement?’ on Barclays Live.

Gasoline prices in the United States have risen to over $4 per gallon since the Iran war began in February. When combined with higher car prices, higher interest rates and rising auto loan delinquencies – not to mention other affordability concerns consumers face – might consumers change their car buying preferences?​
In this episode of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Dan Levy, US Autos and Mobility Equity Research Analyst, debate whether higher fuel costs are the straw that breaks the camel's back, or if strong vehicle preferences and a more concentrated set of affluent buyers are enough to hold current dynamics. ​
They also discuss whether fuel costs could be a catalyst for electric vehicle (EV) adoption, and if technology improvements could make autonomous ride hailing a credible alternative to car ownership in the future. ​

Listeners can learn more about this topic:​
Flip Side ep.79: Will the US consumer hold up in 2026? ​
Barclays Brief ep.12: Robotaxis: The future of mobility​

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live:​
Gauging the impact on autos from higher oil prices - questions on mix, inflation ​
EV Report Card: A closer look at the Chinese EV mix shift

Since 2022, AI capital investment has skyrocketed. But can AI capex reach $1 trillion by 2028, as our Equity Research analysts forecast? Labs are reporting rapid growth, and signs show AI demand spreading beyond the hyperscalers to sovereigns and non-tech enterprises. Yet practical barriers such as power supply, infrastructure timelines and the need for clear ROI could but the brakes on capex.
In episode 82 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Tom O'Malley, Equity Research Analyst for US Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, debate whether today’s rapid AI adoption is enough to justify that level of capex or if real-world constraints will force expectations lower.
Listeners can learn more about this topic:
Barclays Brief Ep 25: The cusp of a capex super cycle
AI gets physical: Innovation meets opportunity

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live:
Framework for Modeling AI Demand & Supply – Capex 'Peak' Likely in 2028
Powering AI: Gas Turbines Could Make or Break AI Ambitions

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