Sinica Podcast

This week on Sinica, I'm joined by Lizzi Lee, fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute and by my lights one of the most astute, well-informed people writing on China in the English-speaking world today. She has fascinating perspectives on China's preparations for the Trump administration, on China's reluctance to roll out large-scale cash stimulus, and Xi Jinping's challenges. Don't miss this one! (I will update the show notes and publish the transcript early next week — thanks for your patience!)3:39 – Lizzi’s argument from her op-ed, “Counting the Hawks in the Trump 2.0 Administration is Pointless”: the importance of which country will be able to get its act together 10:25 – U.S.-China competition as a long game, from China’s perspective14:22 – How China views the current state of division in American politics19:00 – The main risks and opportunities for China presented by Trump’s return, including opportunities in the geopolitical realm with the Europeans 28:09 – The state of China’s domestic economy33:28 – Counterarguments to critiques of China’s cautious deployment of stimulus, and where Lizzi stands on the issue 43:46 – Lizzi’s thoughts on deflation in the Chinese economy 49:30 – The idea of accepting short-term pain for long-term gain in economic recovery 53:59 – Xi Jinping’s vision for China’s economy 58:46 – How Xi Jinping’s ideological language can be challenging for officials and markets 1:03:57 – How China’s political calendar has hindered execution of policy 1:06:42 – What Lizzi thinks the Chinese leadership should prioritize nowPaying it Forward: Lizzi recommends the work of Barclay Bram, especially his series on Chinese youth at the Asia Society here.Recommendations:Lizzi: Grazia Ting Deng’s book Chinese Espresso: Contested Race and Convivial Space in Contemporary ItalyKaiser: More historical fiction by Robert Harris, including An Officer and a Spy and Munich.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I speak with Nicole Hong and Michael Rothfeld, both investigative reporters at the New York Times, about a series of stories they've done, stretching between August and December 2024, on the Falun Gong-run performance troupe Shen Yun, and the Falun Gong-affiliated newspaper The Epoch Times. Read the latest two articles in that series here and here. There will be links to the other stories on the transcript page.4:33 – Nicole and Michael's collection of pieces on Falun Gong 6:26 – Background on [the?] Falun Gong: Li Hongzhi, the context out of which the movement emerged, its international spread, and the CCP’s crackdown in the '90s12:00 – Shen Yun performances, and audience reactions 18:46 – Following the money: Falun Gong’s dramatic financial growth, gray areas, and where the money goes 29:03 – Spiritual project or big grift?31:39 – What Nicole and Michael uncovered 36:23 – Memorable individuals: Chang Chun-ko, Kate the performer, and Josh the violinist41:10 – The dynamics within [the?] Falun Gong, and what has been alleged45:34 – The Epoch Times, and their editorial changes 53:02 – The appeal of Falun Gong, and the level of scrutiny it getsPaying It Forward:Nicole: Researchers/freelancers/translators Yi Liu and Peiyue Wu Michael: New York Times colleague Susan Beachy Recommendations:Nicole: Connie: A Memoir by Connie Chung Michael: Like Water for Chocolate by Laura Esquivel; One Hundred Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez (and the new One Hundred Years of Solitude TV series (2024)); and the TV series Gomorrah (2014-2021)Kaiser: TikTok accounts workplace_doodles (a former Shen Yun performer born into a Falun Gong family) and cocolarkincooks (a fantastic cooking resource)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I welcome back Michael Cerny — formerly of the Carter Center and now a Ph.D. student at Harvard — and Rory Truex of Princeton University to discuss a new working paper they've co-authored. They undertook a large-scale survey of foreign policy professionals at U.S. think tanks to ascertain whether there is a "consensus" on China policy, as is often claimed, and whether people working in think tanks feel pressure to take on more "hawkish" positions on China policy. We also introduce a new segment called "Paying it Forward."5:04 – What motivated Michael and Rory to write their paper together 7:30 – Groupthink vs. consensus10:08 – The methodology: combining surveys and interviews, and the sampling frame 14:35 – Trying to avoid leading questions 17:58 – Creating the “China Confrontation Index” 20:25 – Different levels of acceptance of the labels “hawk” and “dove” 23:33 – The issue of preference falsification 25:43 – Mechanisms behind disparities in perceived pressure 29:01 – Tying in Rory’s previous research on self-censorship 32:42 – How Michael and Rory decided on interviews 34:10 – What Michael believes were the most important and robust findings36:09 – The distinction between the beliefs of think tankers vs. elected officials, and why people tend to believe there is a bipartisan consensus on China 40:34 – Pressure on hawks 42:35 – Specific policy questions44:18 – Feedback on the paper so far, and what Michael and Rory may tweak in a subsequent draft 49:47 – The possible role of personality in hawkishness or dovishness 51:58 – Discussing Mike Mazarr’s concerns about the potential parallels between current Chinese discourse and the lead-up to the Iraq War 55:06 – Advice to younger professionals entering the foreign policy/China field New segment: Paying It Forward:Rory: Michael Cerny and Edi Obiakpani-Reid Recommendations:Rory: Edi Obiakpani-Reid’s Sinobabble podcast about Chinese historyMichael: Jeffrey Ding’s Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic CompetitionKaiser: Imperium by Robert Harris See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica I'm delighted to be joined by Amy King, Associate Professor in the Strategic & Defence Studies Centre at The Australian National University. She shares her ideas about how perceptions of insecurity can paradoxically motivate closer economic relations between two states, and she looks at not only the examples of China and Japan after the end of World War II, but Australia and China as well. We also discuss Sino-Australian relations over the last 15 years, and much else!2:48 – Key phases of Australia-China relations over the past 15 years and the security and economic nexus 9:05 – Amy’s research into the Sino-Japanese relationship and how perceptions of insecurity can motivate closer economic ties, and how Australia is responding to China now 21:22 – How Amy would argue the case for economic engagement with China to folks in Washington 26:31 – Securitization in Australia and the important differences between Australia and the U.S. 30:20 – The shift in the Australia-China relationship under the Albanese government 33:12 – What the U.S. can learn from Australia 35:14 – Why people tend to conflate Australia’s experience with America’s 39:04 – Amy’s essay, “The Collective Logic of Chinese Hegemonic Order,” and how we can understand China’s role in the emerging post-unipolar world42:47 – Three mechanisms employed by China to amplify its voice post-war (amplifying, grafting, and resistance by appropriation) and how modern “middle powers” can influence the international order now 52:31 – The state of discourse on China in Australia and what Amy believes China wants 58:54 – Amy’s thoughts on pluralism and international order 1:03:22 – What lessons about de-risking and navigating multi-alignment Australia should be learning from other nations in the region Recommendations:Amy: Fintan O’Toole’s We Don’t Know Ourselves: A Personal History of Modern Ireland Kaiser: The Paul Reed Smith (PRS) SE Hollowbody II Piezo electric guitar See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.