Azeem Azhar's Exponential View

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. 
To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 
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In this episode, I share my outlook for 2026 and explain why AI tools now feel genuinely different. I explore how the act of making has been transformed, why authenticity and meaning will become the new scarcity, and whether the foundations of energy and capital can hold. I also address the question I was asked most in 2025: when will the AI bubble burst? 
Skip to the best bits: 
00:00 Why AI feels different in 2026 
01:59 The six shifts in AI 03:32 The "done list" era 
06:43 From execution to orchestration 
09:02 The agentic coding revolution 
11:10 What's a Chief Question Officer? 
13:58 Three ways value will be created 
16:27 "Claude told me to use ChatGPT" 
18:02 The AI usage gap 
20:30 The new moat in 2026 
26:10 How does solar growth affect AI? 
28:53 Revisiting the bubble or boom question 
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Where to find me: 
Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ 
Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem 
Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 
Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. 
Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. 
To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 
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In this episode, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman and I discuss how a strong US economy, high asset valuations, and rapid AI adoption are sitting in uneasy tension. We explore what past technology cycles can teach us, why safety nets struggle to address disruption, and where genuine optimism still makes sense. 
This is a January 2025 rerun, which remains strikingly relevant today. 
We covered: 
(01:09) State of the US economy 
(02:28) "That end of 1999 feeling" 
(05:08) Insights and lessons from the dotcom bubble 
(09:57) Why today's market is different 
(13:44) Understanding AI's role in labor displacement 
(16:05) Are LLMs "souped-up autocorrect"? 
(20:14) How job displacement erodes communities 
(23:40) 2025's looming threat of tariffs 
(26:16) AI's surprising impact on globalization 
(30:15) Can markets address inequality? 
(33:06) The maximum level of sustainable national debt 
(36:31) When should the Fed raise interest rates? 
(38:57) The need to revitalize local economies 
(44:53) Did Paul's 2025 predictions come true? 
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Where to find me: 
Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ 
Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem 
Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 
Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. 
To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 
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What made 2025 special? 
In this episode, I reflect on the past year and what it revealed: a K-shaped divide. On one track, AI models are now doing hours of high quality work, improving at exponential pace, and shifting how we work from doing to judging. On the other, organisations and the broader economy are struggling to keep up. Stay to the end for my seasonal film recommendation. 
I cover:
(00:00) Intro 
(00:45) The state of tool usage in 2025 
(6:10) The gap between AI progress and organizational adoption 
(9:53) AI’s shockingly rapid revenue growth 
(11:17) The biggest mistake smart people make with AI 
(14:14)  The inescapable need for physical infrastructure 
(16:06) What everyone was asking in 2025 
(18:08) The new winners of the AI economy 
(20:48) Why “K” is the letter of 2025 
(24:08) Seasonal movie recommendation 
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Where to find me: 
Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ 
Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem 
 
Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 
Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 
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In this episode, I’ve distilled a year of extraordinary dialogue into one 20-minute briefing. I’ve spent 2025 in conversation with the architects of our future - the builders and thinkers redefining AI, energy, and the global economy.
These are the "eureka" moments from my most exclusive interviews. From the future of "protopia" with Kevin Kelly to the hidden tech gaps with Dan Wang, this is your strategic roadmap for the exponential age.
What you'll hear about:
Part 1: AI as a general purpose tech
Kevin Weil: The heuristic for startups
Matthew Prince: The “Socialist” pricing debate
Tyler Cowen: This will stifle the AI boom
Nick Thompson: The "NBA-ification" of Journalism
Kevin Kelly: From utopia to protopia
Kevin Kelly: Technology as a "possibility factory”
Part 2: How work is changing
Steve Hsu: The future of education
Thomas Dohmke: The inspectability turning point
Ben Zweig: The new role for entry-level workers
Ben Zweig: Why are there so many hiring freezes?
Ben Zweig: The eroding signal of higher education
Part 3: The physical world, compute, and energy
Greg Jackson: The "crossing the road" metaphor
Greg Jackson: Building a “show don’t tell” company
Dan Wang, The "physical reality" of AI
Part 4: The changing US China landscape
Dan Wang: The West’s hidden tech gap
Jordan Schneider: The two types of accelerationism
Jordan Schneider: Why the US can learn from China
Where to find me: 
Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem 
Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 
Production and research: Chantal Smith, Marija Gavrilov and Hannah Petrovic

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 
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In this episode, I look at the next 24 months of AI. The technology is improving rapidly – so what could hold back widespread transformation of how we work and live? I dig into the real constraints, from electricity shortages to institutional inertia, why mid-2026 matters for enterprise AI, and why so many people remain uneasy about a technology they use every day. 
I cover: 
(00:03) Predicting AI's next two years 
(01:50) How life changing are chatbots, really? 
(03:36) Our current biggest AI constraint 
(07:58) The remarkable increase in token efficiency 
(10:43) Why mid-2026 is a crucial turning point 
(13:01) Do we actually want AI in our lives? 
(15:28) Should organizations wait to jump in? 
(16:39) How is OpenAI reckoning with Gemini? 
(18:41) The market's reaction to OpenAI's code red 
(19:32) Where will value accrue in the supply chain? 
(20:51) What's the best strategy for middling powers?
Where to find me: 
Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem 
Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 
Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.