Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

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This is a conversation with Carlo Masala, a professor of international politics at the Bundeswehr University Munich and author of a book that got quite a lot of attention all across Europe called “If Russia Wins”. In the book Carlo portrays a hypothetical scenario - in which Russia ends up achieving a limited victory in Ukraine, pursues a period of normalization with Europe and a few years later, launches a limited attack on Estonia, in an attempt to break up NATO unity - which - in the scenario - turns out to be a success. 

Carlo is not the first person to present a scenario in which Russia tests NATO but what makes this different and unique is how exceptionally realistic this one is. From the start to finish, I could genuinely see most of it happening - and in many instances, I thought the scenario was not just plausible but the most likely way things would happen - which makes it all the more frightening and worth consideration. 

In the conversation, we pick it apart, explore how it would play out and what would it mean. We talk about whether Russia would have an appetite for another military gamble after Ukraine, whether the Estonians would just let it happen, whether Europe has learned its lesson on how to deal with Russia in the past 4 years, what would not wanting to risk a World War 3 over a small town in Estonia mean for NATO and European security - or whether there is any hope that an American president would come to aid of Europe at a time when Trump is literally demanding Greenland. And whether - effectively - NATO just isn't already dead anyway  - and if it is, what does that mean for all of us.

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This is a conversation with Rory Cormac, a professor at the University of Nottingham who’s professional is on a very particular subject - how states engage in and deploy “covert action” - subversive actions against their opponents carried out in secrecy with that the state itself denying its own involvement. Or in other words, the shadiest stuff that spies from nations all around the world do - from overthrowing foreign governments, arming proxy groups and carrying out sabotage and assassinations.

If you are interested in geopolitics, this probably naturally comes as a fascinating subject - and so we talk about how various nations approach and engage in this area - from the U.S. effort to overthrow Maduro’s regime in Venezuela and its rich history of overthrowing foreign regimes, Russian wave of covert action in Europe and what European countries like the UK and France covertly do or not do themselves, how does China approach this and why does it seem to stay under the radar - or why if covert action is meant to be secret, we seem to read about all the time in mainstream news - and much more.

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This is a conversation with Andrias Kubilius - the European Union’s Commissioner for Defense and Space. 

For those not that familiar with the European Union - a commissioner is kind of like a minister in a nation state, a top politician, responsible for a particular area. Historically the EU has never had a Defence Commissioner because it is not a military organization but since the invasion of Ukraine that has changed quite radically and in 2023, Andrias became the first ever EU Defense commissioner, responsible primarily for rebuilding the European defense industry, rearming Europe and making it ready and able to defend itself. Needles to say, it’s a pretty important role and as the European Union is trying to act more as an independent geopolitical actor, it’s only becoming more important. And for how important his role is, he was extremely open and transparent in this conversation. 

We talked about how to make Europe prepared to survive in an increasingly dangerous world and defend itself on its own, without anyone coming to save it. Both about what is he doing to make that happen but also how the European Union needs to change to make it possible , including why he believes that we need a true European army. 

We talk a lot about the complicated relationship with the United States - about why and how Europe needs to immediately prepare for United States withdrawing from Europe, about what will be the future of NATO once that happens and whether the EU could replace it, and how would Europe respond if the United States decide to take Greenland by force and  how destructive that would be for everyone. And about his views on the new US National Security Strategy - which he is very critical of and which frames the very institution he represents - the European Union - as an opposition to the interests of the United States and something that the US should try to dismantle. 

And of course we talk about Russia - about how likely is the threat of a Russian aggression against EU and NATO or how prepared Europe is right now to face it. And much more.

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This is a conversation with Olivier Schmidt, head of research at the Institute for Military Operations at the Royal Danish Defence College and expert on military strategy. As you might have noticed, especially if you listen to this podcast, Europe is not having the easiest time when it comes to geopolitics - it’s trying to support in its Ukraine with Russia, rebuild its militaries after decades of hibernation, deal with increasingly unpredictable and sometimes openly hostile United States, all while trying to understand and adapt to the entirely new geopolitical reality we find ourselves in. And from the European perspective, understanding where are we going and how to best adapt to it is both really important and really difficult.

And that’s why I’m speaking with Olivier today. He recently wrote an academic paper that basically lays out the 4 different scenarios that Europe might experience in the coming years - based on how hostile the United States will get and how united Europe manages to stay. It’s an extremely interesting and helpful approach that moves away from abstract anxieties and towards tangible realistic scenarios that help us understand what’s ahead and how to prepare for it. In this conversation we talk about all of them as well as what each of them would mean and what would be the best course of action in each of the four different futures we might find ourselves in.

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➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/This is a conversation with Andrew Badger - a former human intelligence officer at the DIA - the United States Defense Intelligence Agency, a lecturer at Oxford University, an advisor on geopolitics for some of the world’s largest corporations, and an author of an upcoming book on what I think is mostly overlooked but an extremely interesting topic - of how China in the past decades managed to mobilize its vast intelligence apparatus, its citizens living abroad, its private companies and basically everything it has at its disposal to covertly obtain some of the most advanced technology belonging to American companies.

And how this technology helped China to massively develop its economy, its private companies and its military in an extremely short timespan and basically catch up to the United States in a way that otherwise might not have been possible. We talk about how China actually does that on a practical level and why is it so good at it, even though it’s not at all the country doing that or how is the intelligence competition shaping the race for AI dominance and much more.