The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Jacob Shapiro sits down with Victor Hernandez, a Mexican national security analyst, to stress-test his own optimism about Mexico. Hernandez argues the army now runs eight ministries' budgets, can't out-spy the cartels, and may face limited US drone strikes Mexico has no way to resist. El Mencho's death looks more like an ambush than a victory. Nearshoring pencils out on a spreadsheet - until corruption and parallel taxation eat the margin. A bracing case for what happens if Jacob's wrong.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro and Framing
(01:29) - Meet Victor Hernandez
(02:44) - Victor Background and Career
(05:00) - Army Trust and Corruption
(07:38) - Blowback and Patriotism
(10:25) - Morena and Military Power
(15:29) - Future of Militarization
(17:24) - Army vs Cartels Capabilities
(22:26) - Will the US Intervene
(26:26) - Drone Strikes Fallout
(29:32) - Cuba Sequencing and Allies
(33:04) - Trade Dependence and Diversification
(39:45) - El Mencho and Cartel Fragmentation
(44:14) - Investing and Nearshoring Risks
(51:05) - What If Victor Is Wrong
(54:24) - Closing and Outro
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Referenced in the Show:
Victor Hernandez - https://www.linkedin.com/in/v%C3%ADctor-hern%C3%A1ndez-979002b0?
ILEES - https://www.ilees.mx/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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You might not realize it, but Jacob also appears on a few other podcasts regularly! Jacob is a regular guest RealAgriculture’s Frontlines podcast, hosted by Shaun Hane. Shaun and Jacob discuss geopolitics from an agricultural lens, exploring how the world reacts to the extremely fine-tuned world of ag.
Many analysts expected a prolonged disruption in the Strait to trigger severe economic fallout. Instead, oil prices have risen, inflation pressures have intensified, and shortages are emerging in some regions, yet markets remain resilient. Jacob argues that oil’s influence on the broader economy is no longer as dominant as it was during previous energy crises. Strategic reserves, alternative supply routes, and new infrastructure projects have helped cushion the impact, even as consumers face higher fuel and food costs. At the same time, he points to inflation as the political challenge that could ultimately shape U.S. policy. While employment numbers remain relatively strong, Jacob contends that household finances are under increasing pressure.

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Referenced in the Show:
Frontlines- https://www.realagriculture.com/2026/06/from-hormuz-to-ai-competing-forces-are-driving-the-global-economy-frontlines-june-2026/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Florida produced 242 million boxes of oranges in 2003. This year, the USDA is forecasting 12 million... a decline of more than 95% in less than a generation. Jacob sits down with journalist Alexander Sammon, who wrote a definitive autopsy of the Florida orange industry, to understand how disease, globalization, and real estate swallowed one of America's most iconic crops. Scratch the surface of orange juice, and you find geopolitics, government mandates, and the full sweep of 20th century American economic history.
Alex's article below!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Schedule Update
(00:26) - Meet Alex Salmon
(01:18) - Orange Juice Meets Geopolitics
(02:48) - Florida Orange Collapse
(04:27) - Disease and Perfect Storm
(06:0) -6 Can Science Save Citrus
(10:37) - Farmers Pivot to Real Estate
(14:28) - Nostalgia for Old Florida
(16:58) - Brazil Takes the Baton
(24:25) - Oranges Through History
(26:50) - Canonizing a Classic
(27:39) - Oranges Arrive in Florida
(28:52) - Railroads and Early Boom
(30:02) - War Creates Orange Juice
(30:35) - Geopolitics in Your Glass
(34:02) - Advertising Makes a Staple
(35:49) - Greening and Structural Cracks
(37:26) - Globalization Hollowing Out
(39:23) - Wall Street Consolidation
(42:54) - Juice Backlash and Millennials
(45:16) - Future of Oranges Worldwide
(49:51) - Next Project and Farewell
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Referenced in the Show:
Who Killed the Florida Orange? - https://slate.com/business/2026/04/florida-state-orange-food-houses-real-estate.html
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Ioan Grillo has spent decades on the ground in Mexico watching the cartels evolve, and his assessment is sobering. Violence has shifted form more than it's receded. Governments change rhetoric, not reality. The U.S. is more involved than anyone admits. And Sheinbaum is threading a needle between Washington's pressure and Mexican sovereignty. A conversation you won't find anywhere else.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(01:33) - Name Pronunciation
(02:46) - How Cartels Evolved
(03:35) - Violence Plateau Explained
(08:04) - Homicide Stats vs Reality
(10:01) - Sheinbaum Security Strategy
(14:28) - US Role and Intervention
(15:54) - Trump Era Cartel Priority
(20:51) - Sovereignty and Mixed Views
(24:38) - Extraditions and Double Talk
(27:11) - US Role In Mexico
(28:23) - CIA Tactics Debate
(29:11) - Bukele Model Questions
(30:22) - Why Bukele Rose
(34:15) - Crackdown Tradeoffs
(37:53) - Mexico Geography Limits
(39:36) - What Tough Looks Like
(43:19) - Journalism Under Threat
(47:49) - Staying Sane Reporting
(53:01) - Closing And Links
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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Our favorite military analyst, Sim Tack, returns to the pod to assess three different conflicts reshaping global security. In Ukraine, territorial gains are tactical, not strategic; Russian economic endurance remains the real variable. In Iran, a degraded military has reached a stalemate the U.S. and Israel cannot break without regime change. And in Mali, a jihadist advance is threatening to create a new territorial caliphate... with Russia's failed security guarantee quietly accelerating the collapse.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(01:08) - Sim is Back
(01:56) - Is the World Overwhelming?
(04:23) - AI Briefings and Limits
(06:10) - Drones and War Evolution
(09:44) - Top Conflicts to Watch
(11:59) - Ukraine Strikes and Oil Leverage
(13:53) - Reality Check on Initiative
(18:26) - Zelensky Endgame Options
(23:28) - Russia Staying Power and Economy
(26:15) - NATO Threat Question
(26:46) - Russia Threat Timeline
(27:53) - Can Russia Fight NATO
(29:30) - Satellite Buildup Reality
(30:23) - Europe Rearms Narrative
(35:11) - Asymmetric Threat Debate
(37:06) - Drones Cyber Article Five
(41:11) - US Munitions Bottleneck
(47:39) - Iran Stalemate Logic
(50:27) - How Neutered Is Iran
(53:46) - Mali Jihadist Surge
(57:17) - Closing Thanks Outro
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Sim's Work:
AllSource Analysis: https://allsourceanalysis.com/work/sim-tack/
Linkedin: https://be.linkedin.com/in/sim-tack-081b313b
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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