The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Our favorite military analyst, Sim Tack, returns to the pod to assess three different conflicts reshaping global security. In Ukraine, territorial gains are tactical, not strategic; Russian economic endurance remains the real variable. In Iran, a degraded military has reached a stalemate the U.S. and Israel cannot break without regime change. And in Mali, a jihadist advance is threatening to create a new territorial caliphate... with Russia's failed security guarantee quietly accelerating the collapse.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(01:08) - Sim is Back
(01:56) - Is the World Overwhelming?
(04:23) - AI Briefings and Limits
(06:10) - Drones and War Evolution
(09:44) - Top Conflicts to Watch
(11:59) - Ukraine Strikes and Oil Leverage
(13:53) - Reality Check on Initiative
(18:26) - Zelensky Endgame Options
(23:28) - Russia Staying Power and Economy
(26:15) - NATO Threat Question
(26:46) - Russia Threat Timeline
(27:53) - Can Russia Fight NATO
(29:30) - Satellite Buildup Reality
(30:23) - Europe Rearms Narrative
(35:11) - Asymmetric Threat Debate
(37:06) - Drones Cyber Article Five
(41:11) - US Munitions Bottleneck
(47:39) - Iran Stalemate Logic
(50:27) - How Neutered Is Iran
(53:46) - Mali Jihadist Surge
(57:17) - Closing Thanks Outro
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Sim's Work:
AllSource Analysis: https://allsourceanalysis.com/work/sim-tack/
Linkedin: https://be.linkedin.com/in/sim-tack-081b313b
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Jacob sits down for a fantastic conversation with author and analyst Dror Poleg to explore how AI is reshaping work, value, and the economy. They unpack why AI is better understood as a medium than a tool, what the shift from tangible to intangible assets means for investors, and why the dynamics of show business now govern every industry - from oil to politics.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introooo
(01:27) - Twitter and the Text Commons
(04:16) - AI Metaphors Tool or Medium
(07:58) - How LLMs Actually Think
(16:04) - Analog to Digital Generations
(17:39) - Work Capital and Interchangeability
(23:39) - OnlyFans Economy and Discovery
(28:18) - Nonlinear Economy Tangible vs Intangible
(35:45) - Is This Universal China Too
(37:43) - China Fears Volatility
(38:11) - COVID Strategy Contrast
(40:39) - Censorship Arms Race
(42:05) - AI Slips Control
(43:09) - Energy Limits Return
(44:52) - Automation And Work
(47:22) - All Swans Black
(52:36) - Politics Need New Story
(57:50) - Cities For New Economy
(01:03:18) - Warp Speed Government
(01:05:00) - Israel Modern War Paradox
(01:12:18) - Closing And Credits
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Referenced in the Show:
Dror Poleg's Site and piece referenced - https://www.drorpoleg.com/forty-in-quarantine/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Peru has had seven presidents in nine years, homicides have nearly doubled, and extortion is up sixfold - and yet the country just tried to buy $3.5 billion worth of F-16s. Elohim Monard returns to diagnose a political crisis that doubles as a case study in great-power failure. From "gross diplomacy" on social media to a runoff framed as "cancer versus HIV," Peru is caught between Washington and Beijing with no strategy of its own.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(00:37) - Gross Diplomacy Sparks
(01:51) - US Diplomatic Decline
(05:17) - Trump Centralized Foreign Policy
(07:08) - Peru F-16 Deal Controversy
(12:28) - Why F-16s Make No Sense
(17:13) - Peru Budget and Military Inertia
(21:43) - Peru Election and Crime Surge
(24:32) - Fujimori Question Setup
(24:58) - Fujimori Paradox
(26:38) - Instability Origins
(28:32) - Democracy Tradeoffs
(30:43) - Sanchez and Castillo
(33:51) - Cleavages Over Policy
(36:57) - US China Reality Check
(39:03) - Beyond Great Powers
(45:07) - Inequality Fuels Populism
(49:52) - No Offers From Washington
(51:28) - Latin America Leadership Void
(56:44) - Closing and Signoff
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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Josh Linville,VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, chats with Jacob about the global fertilizer crisis triggered by disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. They cover why the Middle East dominates fertilizer supply, why the US can't easily fill the gap, which crops and regions are most at risk, and what farmers should do right now to protect themselves.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(01:15) - War Context and Stakes
(02:22) - Fertilizer 101 Big Three
(03:36) - Why Hormuz Matters
(04:55) - Middle East Gas Advantage
(06:12) - Why US Lags Production
(07:56) - Capacity Crunch Explained
(10:47) - China and State Strategy
(13:11) - Build Plants or Reserve
(16:25) - Investment Reality Check
(19:00) - Food Security Imperative
(21:18) - Seasonality and Timing
(23:36) - Global Impacts and Grain
(25:33) - Fertilizer Booking Gaps
(26:44) - Survey Skepticism
(28:59) - Global Risk Hotspots
(30:43) - Yield and Protein Impacts
(32:35) - Fertilizer Supercycles
(36:05) - New Normal or Oversupply
(39:47) - Pinch Points Russia
(41:38) - Beyond the Big Three
(43:19) - Organic Alternatives Limits
(46:33) - Carbon Premium Reality
(48:32) - Key Takeaways Farmers
(50:42) - Wrap Up and Credits
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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Josef Schachter - President of Schachter Energy - walks us through what global oil markets looked like the day before bombs started falling, and what the math looks like now. Prices were already heading higher, the conflict accelerated the timeline, and the U.S. can't drill its way out of a closed Strait of Hormuz. Jacob and Josef also get into Canada's structural advantage, why markets are still surprisingly calm, and what a prolonged conflict means for the global economy. Tune in for more :)
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(00:36) - Prewar Oil Market Setup
(02:24) - War Impact and Price Paths
(05:15) - Ceasefire Doubts and Escalation
(09:02) - Markets vs Reality Gap
(10:32) - Supply Now Product Later
(12:47) - Trump Strategy and Nuclear Endgame
(16:03) - Drill Baby Drill Reality Check
(18:53) - Can Americas Output Replace Gulf
(20:57) - Energy Hegemony and China Angle
(25:18) - Allies Drift and US Quandary
(27:18) - Biofuels Reality Check
(29:38) - War Changes Everything
(31:13) - New Supply Hunt Worldwide
(32:59) - Policy Reversals for Security
(39:31) - Pipelines LNG and Takeaway
(40:38) - Global Plays Beyond Canada
(42:36) - 2030s Demand vs Efficiency
(46:19) - Portfolio Positioning in Energy
(49:48) - Risks That Break the Thesis
(51:39) - Closing and Sign Off
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Referenced in the Show:
Josef's Site - https://schachterenergyreport.ca/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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