The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

• The Reverse Currency Crisis That Isn’t

  This week, Jacob’s caffeinated and Rob is just trying to keep us on track as the duo dive into the so-called “Asian reverse currency crisis,” a spike in Asian FX that’s less a crisis and more the result of twenty-five years of carry trades finally snapping. We break down what it means for the dollar, for diversification, and for the poor bastards running Taiwanese insurance portfolios. Then: Trump wants tariffs on foreign movies (seriously), Saudi Arabia starts pumping oil like it’s 2019, and we finish with why empty shelves might be the most underpriced risk in markets right now. Buckle up.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview(00:44) - Recording on a Tuesday: Unusual Timing(01:53) - Taiwanese Dollar Surge: A Financial Analysis(03:21) - Asian Financial Crisis: Historical Context(05:46) - Implications for Global Markets(22:16) - Investment Strategies for a Multipolar World(25:26) - Trump's Tariff on Foreign Movies: A Soft Power Debate(36:38) - US Soft Power: A Decline in Influence(41:49) - Saudi Arabia's Oil Strategy(46:25) - Global Oil Market Dynamics(57:53) - Impact of Tariffs on US Retail(01:05:41) - Geopolitical Tensions and Future Outlook(01:06:39) - Conclusion and Contact Information--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

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• The Indus Waters Are Getting Hot

  Kamran Bokhari answers the bat signal to join Jacob Shapiro for a wide-ranging conversation on the spike in India-Pakistan tensions following the Kashmir attack - and why it’s not just business as usual. They unpack the strategic logic (or lack thereof) behind Pakistan’s moves, India’s dilemma over deterrence, and the escalating risk of regional miscalculation. They also dig into the broader Middle East: Iran’s negotiations, Houthi missiles, and whether the U.S. is quietly brokering a regional reset. Kamran sees threads tying it all together; We're still trying to figure out if that’s optimism or a warning. Either way, something’s shifting... and fast.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction(00:56) - Current Geopolitical Tensions(01:56) - India-Pakistan Relations and Kashmir Conflict(02:43) - US-India Strategic Partnership(04:47) - Recent Attacks and Speculations(07:51) - Historical Context and Recent Developments(11:36) - Potential Escalations and Strategic Moves(21:52) - Indus Waters Treaty and Diplomatic Channels(26:15) - Regional Dynamics and Future Outlook(27:11) - China's Strategic Interests in South Asia(28:21) - India's Two-Front Dilemma(29:43) - China's Potential Responses(31:30) - Middle East Geopolitical Threads(33:23) - Iran Nuclear Deal and Regional Implications(40:49) - US Strategy in the Middle East(45:49) - Syria's Role in Regional Stability(50:18) - Concluding Thoughts and Optimism--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

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  52:30
• Latinos for Trump (But Make It Complicated)

  Conversando de Pol ítica - https://www.conversandodepolitica.com/ --In this episode, Jacob sits down with Elohim Monard for a sharp, layered conversation about Hispanic support for Trump, the politics of deportation, and how authoritarianism creeps in under the banner of law and order. They talk about prisons as geopolitical tools, from El Salvador’s extreme model to France’s cocaine-fueled chaos, and whether Trump’s policies are building a regime of fear among immigrants and international students. Elohim brings the receipts, the nuance, and the global view. They also get into AI, startup governments, and why the next global threat may be the hyper-globalization of organized crime. Buckle up.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview(01:29) - Conversation with Elohim Ard Begins(04:43) - Hispanic Support for Trump: Analysis and Polls(08:58) - Deportation and Its Impact on the Hispanic Community(11:00) - Midterms and Hispanic Voting Trends(17:37) - Judicial and Federal Tensions in the US(22:56) - International Students and US Policies(26:19) - Future Prospects and Exit Plans(29:58) - Global Academia: Opportunities and Challenges(31:24) - Considering China for Academic Pursuits(32:43) - Geopolitics of Prisons: A Global Perspective(34:38) - El Salvador's Controversial Prison Policies(52:59) - The Role of AI in Modern Governance(57:48) - Final Thoughts and Farewell--Referenced in the Show:Conversando de Pol ítica - https://www.conversandodepolitica.com/ --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

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  58:50
• The Pahalgam Terrorist Attack

  Jacob Shapiro is joined by Akshar Patel from The Emissary to unpack the rapidly escalating crisis between India and Pakistan after a deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir. They cover what happened, why this attack is different, and why India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is such a big geopolitical shift. Akshar breaks down Pakistan’s internal fractures, India’s military limitations, and how water is becoming a pressure point in South Asia. This isn’t just saber-rattling... it’s a slow burn with existential stakes.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:21) - Current Tensions Between India and Pakistan(01:10) - Podcast Format and Guest Perspective(02:04) - Discussion on Recent Terrorist Attack(09:18) - Historical Context and Analysis(19:34) - Indian Government's Response and Military Trust Issues(25:23) - Potential Motivations and Future Implications(28:24) - Personal Anecdote and Broader Context(29:01) - A High Schooler's Question on Chechnya(29:33) - Why Does India Want Kashmir?(30:28) - Historical Context of Kashmir Conflict(32:55) - Civilizational and Secular Significance of Kashmir(36:36) - Geopolitical Importance of Water(38:25) - Potential Military Conflicts and Strategies(48:04) - Global Diplomatic Dynamics(56:31) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

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  58:11
• Go Where The Fiscal Is

  Chase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro is back to break down the mess that is U.S. trade policy and what it means for markets. We talk about whether Trump’s tariffs are pushing us toward recession, why China’s fiscal discipline might actually be a strength, and where smart investors should be looking outside the U.S. Chase walks through opportunities in Greece, Brazil, and Chile, and we take a step back to talk about how capital flows and political risk are reshaping global investing. Plus, we nerd out about frontier markets—and yes, a little bit about NBA playoffs too.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:32) - NBA Playoffs and Initial Discussion(01:18) - Tariff Vice and Economic Concerns(02:07) - Impact of Tariffs on US Economy(07:34) - Recession Fears and Employment Data(09:58) - Trump's Trade Policies and Market Reactions(17:38) - China's Economic Strategies and Stimulus(28:29) - Investment Opportunities in Europe(30:00) - Investment Opportunities in Europe and Brazil(30:51) - Challenges and Risks in Brazil and Turkey(32:19) - Overseas Investing: Macro Tailwinds and Policy(33:32) - Turnaround Stories in Emerging Markets(34:44) - The Potential of Frontier Markets(38:08) - Geopolitical Insights and North Korea(45:34) - Agricultural Commodities and Market Trends(49:43) - The Dollar's Impact on Trade and Investments(52:03) - NBA Trades and the Cleveland Cavaliers(55:46) - Podcast Conclusion and Contact Information--Referenced: Pine Cone Macro: https://www.pineconemacro.com/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

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  56:38

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