The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Eritrea and (a Tigrayan-led) Ethiopia fought one of Africa’s deadliest wars against each other. Then Eritrea helped Ethiopia crush Tigray. Now Eritrea and Tigray are fighting Ethiopia together. Confusing? Super. Nicholas Norbrook of The Africa Report maps the forces pulling at a country that was, until recently, one of the fastest-growing economies on earth - a messianic prime minister with a very young team, Emirati money on several sides at once, Egypt quietly assembling a coalition to box Addis in, and a short run to the Red Sea coast that would be very easy to attempt and very hard to survive.
We've put together a little primer on the conflict because this one is confusing as hell.
General Context:
Eritrea was a federated part of Ethiopia from the 1950's until the 1990s. Tigray is a region in northern Ethiopia, and Tigrayans are the ethnic group who live there - roughly 6% of Ethiopians identify as Tigrayan, although the Tigrayan People's Libreration front ruled Ethiopia from 1991-2018. Tigrayans speak Tigrinya - the same language as the Eritrean highlanders just across the border (the Tigrinya people), who make up about half of Eritrea’s population. Same language, same church, same highland culture, split by a border Italy drew in the 1890s.
Modern Conflict Timeline:
1991 - The TPLF (Tigrayan People's Liberation Front) overthrows Ethiopia’s military dictatorship and runs the country until 2018. Eritrea gains its independence and breaks away fully from Ethiopia.
1998 - A border war with Eritrea is fought by a Tigrayan-led Ethiopia, largely on Tigrayan ground, with ~100,000+ people dead. Conflict ends in 2000.
2018 - Abiy Ahmed takes power in Ethiopia, sidelines the TPLF, makes peace with Eritrea, and collects a Nobel Peace Prize.
2020 - Eritrean troops help Abiy Ahmed crush Tigrayan resistance. The Pretoria Agreement freezes that war in November 2022 without settling any of it.
2026 - In September, the fighting reignited, now with Tigray and Eritrea loosely opposing Ethiopia.

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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(01:20) - Abiy Ambition and Ethiopia
(03:33) - Development Model Shift
(06:39) - South Korea Lessons METEC
(09:13) - New War Regional Risks
(11:15) - Ethno Federalism and TPLF
(13:16) - Outside Powers and Dam
(15:40) - Why Regions Splinter
(20:56) - Unraveling or Recohere
(26:30) - Eritrea Whiplash Explained
(31:53) - Gulf Rivalries and Drones
(38:07) - What Happens Next
(42:04) - Why This Matters Outro
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Referenced in the Show:
The Africa Report: https://www.theafricareport.com/author/nicholas-norbrook/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Mark Walter bought the Lakers for $10 billion and sold them fourteen months later for $12.5. That's a 20% return - which sounds enormous until you consider that nobody sells the Lakers after a year unless something has gone badly wrong. Chris Branch, author of The Athletic's The Pulse, joins to pull on the thread: life insurance money funding franchise purchases, a UAE sovereign wealth fund in the holding company, a Kushner and a former Disney CEO waiting on the other side. Neither of them can prove anything. Both of them can tell something is rotten.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(00:45) - Why the Lakers Sale Matters
(03:12) - Mark Walter’s Rise and Red Flags
(04:58) - Insurance Money and Shady Ownership
(07:24) - Sports Franchise Valuation Boom
(10:42) - Streaming Deals and Bubble Fears
(11:50) - Fans Priced Out and Losing Connection
(14:35) - What Happens Next for Walter
(18:17) - NBA Expansion Vegas vs Europe
(25:42) - When Franchise Values Could Fall
(26:55) - New Orleans Relocation History
(27:43) - NBA Valuations and Debt
(28:32) - Financing Partners and Risk
(29:25) - LSU NFL Return Loophole
(32:02) - NIL Money and No Rules
(35:03) - Universities Under Strain
(37:39) - Youth Sports Pay to Play
(39:02) - Gambling and Market Manipulation
(45:16) - Tradition vs Mercenary Players
(46:42) - Jayden Daniels NIL Clash
(50:19) - Sports as Social Barometer
(54:19) - Closing Thanks and Signoff
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Referenced in the Show:
The Pulse: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/tag/the-pulse/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Two hundred years ago, Simón Bolívar dreamed of a united Latin America - precisely so it could resist becoming America's backyard. South America may finally be integrating... Just not the way he had in mind. Elohim Monard joins from Pucallpa, deep in the Peruvian Amazon, to trace what Marco Rubio's recent swing through the region actually accomplished, why security is the MacGuffin and China is the real story, and how a continent ends up saying "yes sir" while Chinese state companies quietly run its ports and power grids. Plus: the Latin Americanization of US politics, and why El Salvador might be the next Singapore.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Podcast Welcome
(00:44) - Recording In Amazon
(02:43) - Amazon Versus Lima
(06:03) - Fujimori Nostalgia
(08:49) - Rubio Trip Backdrop
(11:18) - Bolivar Dream Reversed
(15:57) - Venezuela Power Signal
(22:22) - Bukele Surprise Move
(24:47) - Canada Multilateral Bet
(27:48) - Brazil Won’t Lead Region
(28:53) - Amazon Barrier Paradox
(30:51) - Learning From Brazil’s Balancing
(32:22) - Cuba Crisis And US Moves
(34:06) - Trade Partners Split Region
(36:58) - Security As A Pretext
(40:36) - Peru As China Flashpoint
(44:27) - Avoiding Cold War 2.0
(47:13) - Bukele And Singapore Model
(48:44) - Latin Americanization And Submission
(53:14) - Rubio’s Role And US Demands
(54:55) - Closing And Sign Off
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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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People are being killed over sand. Not diamonds, not lithium, not rare earths - sand, the second-most consumed resource on earth after water, and the one nobody thinks about twice. Mette Bendixen, a geoscientist at McGill, studies where it comes from and who pays the price for it. Dubai imports its sand from Australia. Greenland's melting ice sheet is quietly producing a new export. And somewhere in Rwanda, a woman crushes stones by hand for two weeks to earn twenty dollars. The foundation of the modern world turns out to be a resource with no lobby, no regulation, and a growing body count.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro!
(01:20) - Jacob Meets Expert
(02:26) - Why Sand Matters
(04:08) - Which Sand Works
(05:45) - Where Demand Explodes
(09:05) - Scarcity And Prices
(12:02) - Dubai Imports Sand
(13:32) - Greenland Sand Boom
(19:04) - Africa And Mekong Mining
(23:36) - Alternatives And Recycling
(27:18) - Singapore Land Reclamation
(34:13) - Why Study Sand
(36:08) - Policy And Labor Dilemmas
(43:06) - Wrap Up And Takeaways
(46:50) - Outro And Credits
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Referenced in the Show:
Mette Bendixon - https://www.mettebendixen.com/
Time Is Running Out For Sand (Nature) - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02042-4
Reddit Thread - https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/1usi0ze/what_is_a_multibillion_dollar_industry_that_the/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Inside you are two wolves. One (Michael Every) looks at Washington and sees a plan. The other (Jacob) looks at the same info and sees chaos. Somewhere north of both is the sovereign nation of Canada - a country discovering what it actually costs to step away from Washington and forge out on its own. Is Carney brave or delusional? Does scale decide everything? When the polite fictions come down, what's left holding any of this together? Tune in for a real disagreement between people who like each other, both wolves get fed.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Setup
(00:10) - Meet Michael Every
(02:39) - Why This Debate
(04:03) - Canada Opening Salvo
(06:07) - Every on Strategy
(10:15) - Canada EU China Options
(16:20) - Sovereignty and Pain
(21:44) - Defense Reality Check
(27:15) - US Threat vs Russia
(31:07) - US Security Red Lines
(34:21) - Polling Turns on Canada
(35:10) - Tariffs Without Strategy
(35:41) - Japan and Korea Pushback
(37:23) - Supply Chains Still China
(37:48) - Defining Real Statecraft
(38:18) - Macro Strategy Defense
(41:36) - Tariffs and Dollar Overreach
(43:53) - Trial and Error Governance
(45:17) - Geopolitical Plays Venezuela Iran
(48:06) - What Actually Comes Back
(51:52) - Work Culture and Foundry Schools
(52:55) - Rebuilding the Whole System
(57:21) - Fear Moments and Next Steps
(01:00:26) - Stablecoins and New Finance
(01:02:26) - Scale Matters Canada vs US
(01:03:15) - Closing and Where to Follow
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Referenced in the Show:
Michael Every - https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/our-experts/011085368/michael-every
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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