Jacob and Rob Larity dive deep into U.S. interest rate dynamics, focusing on Jerome Powell, Trump’s criticism of the Fed, and the potential political and market-driven forces affecting rate decisions. They explore Fed mechanics, historical precedent for presidential interference, and potential appointments like Scott Bessent. They also examine the inflationary impact of trade policy, tariff theatrics, and global economic slowdown signals. The episode concludes with Rob’s investment outlook—bearish on bonds, cautious on equities, and optimistic about international and niche small-cap opportunities.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:13) - Discussion on Interest Rates and Political Interference(01:29) - Casual Conversation and Personal Updates(02:54) - Focus on Jerome Powell and Fed Criticism(09:54) - Mechanics of the Federal Reserve System(14:55) - Historical Context and Presidential Influence on the Fed(25:35) - Scott Bessant's Role and Potential Impact(33:58) - Critique of Janet Yellen's Bond Strategy(35:02) - Challenges of Managing National Debt(35:40) - Market Reactions and Yield Predictions(39:49) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade Deals(44:26) - Inflation and Economic Indicators(57:15) - Investment Strategies in Current Market(01:08:28) - Concluding Thoughts and Recommendations--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp
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Unpacking the U.S.-Pakistan Reset (with Fahd Humayun)
Jacob Shapiro speaks with Fahd Humayun about the shifting geopolitical dynamics in South Asia and the Middle East. They discuss Pakistan’s perspective on the Iran-Israel conflict, U.S.-Pakistan relations under a potential second Trump term, and the strategic implications of Pakistan’s recent military and diplomatic moves. The conversation also explores India-Pakistan tensions, the lowering threshold for military escalation, the role of China in regional alliances, and the internal political challenges facing Pakistan. Humayun emphasizes the need for regional diplomacy, stability, and cautious optimism about Pakistan’s political and democratic future.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:11) - Current Geopolitical Tensions: Iran, Israel, and Pakistan(03:48) - Pakistan's Perspective on US Intervention(05:16) - Unprecedented Meeting: Pakistani Army Chief and President Trump(08:05) - Historical Context: Pakistan-US Relations(12:44) - India-Pakistan Relations: Recent Developments(31:21) - China's Role in South Asia(43:36) - Domestic Politics in Pakistan(50:37) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:Fahd's Website: https://www.fahdhumayun.com/ --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp
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54:08
The Largest Standing Army In Europe
Jacob Shapiro and Rob Larity discuss the recent Israel-Iran conflict and its geopolitical impacts, including President Trump's ceasefire announcement. They analyze the muted market reactions, particularly oil's price drop, despite heightened tensions. The conversation then explores significant shifts in U.S.-Japan relations, highlighting Japan's rising outward investments as indicative of strategic realignments. Finally, Jacob and Rob reflect on navigating uncertainty, advocating long-term strategic thinking over reactive trading, and emphasizing the importance of preserving mental clarity amid rapid global changes.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(04:51) - Markets!(16:04) - Japan's Economic Strategy and Global Investments(25:41) - US-Japan Relations: Pre-existing Tensions(26:31) - Economic Logic and Japanese Investment(27:58) - Japan's Military Capabilities and Global Perceptions(30:18) - Japan's Foreign Policy and Public Opinion(32:17) - Navigating Global Uncertainty and Market Impacts(33:16) - Trading Geopolitics: Challenges and Strategies(35:08) - Media Influence and Protecting Your Time(40:46) - Final Thoughts and Advice--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp
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Latin America's Moment in Global Chaos
Jacob Shapiro sits down with Facundo Robles, Program Coordinator at the Wilson Center’s Latin America Program, for a wide-ranging conversation on how the Israel-Iran conflict intersects with Latin America’s geopolitical and economic realities. They unpack why Latin America remains relatively stable amid global volatility, and how rising oil, fertilizer, and agricultural prices might impact countries like Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. The conversation weaves through U.S.-China competition, Argentina’s foreign policy under Milei, and Venezuela’s provocative posturing. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (04:03) - Impact of Israel-Iran War on Latin America(05:50) - Regional Stability and Conflicts in Latin America(12:26) - Country-Specific Analysis: Mexico(18:17) - Country-Specific Analysis: Argentina(42:40) - Country-Specific Analysis: Venezuela(45:42) - Conclusion --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp
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Tariffs, Trust, and Tokyo
In this episode, Jacob speaks with Japan analyst Tobias Harris to unpack rising tensions in U.S.-Japan trade relations amid the Trump administration’s tariff blitz. They explore how Japan—historically a close U.S. ally—is reacting to unclear demands, internal U.S. policy chaos, and the potential collapse of trust in American economic leadership. Tobias breaks down the limits of personal diplomacy, the legacy of Shinzo Abe, and why Japan is quietly building plan B trade alliances. They also cover Japan-China relations, a political shift in South Korea, and how domestic rice prices could determine Prime Minister Ishiba’s fate. Global stakes, local politics—fully intertwined.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:14) - Japan-US Trade Relations(04:00) - Internal US Negotiation Issues(09:39) - Japan's Strategic Dilemmas(14:09) - Hypotheticals and Future Scenarios(18:50) - Impact of Abe's Relationship with Trump(24:10) - Japanese Relations with China(25:25) - Japan's Efforts to Repair Relations(28:31) - South Korea's New Leadership(29:57) - Challenges in Japan-South Korea Relations(36:13) - Japanese Domestic Politics(40:50) - The Importance of Rice in Japanese Politics(46:48) - Growing Interest in Japan--Referenced in the Show:Tobais' SubStack - https://observingjapan.substack.com/ --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp
Hosted by Jacob Shapiro, the Jacob Shapiro Podcast is long-form exploration of geopolitics, markets, crypto, agriculture, macro-finance, commodities, ForEx, and much much more! Tune in biweekly for interviews with experts across the globe, and weekly for roundups of global financial and geopolitical events!
This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis:
Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp
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