The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Jacob sits down with J Mintzmyer of Value Investors Edge for a shipping deep-dive (but of course it's a geopolitics lesson in disguise). Mintzmyer argues the industry has barely changed in eleven years, most of the efficiency gains, double hulls, eco-designed vessels, LNG boil-off fixes, were locked in over a decade ago, leaving only regulation to move the needle. The two dig into why the US lost shipbuilding to Japan, Korea, and now China, how the Jones Act complicates the picture, and why America's real shot at relevance lies in owning and financing vessels, not building them.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Setup
(01:20) - Meet J Mintzmyer
(02:38) - Shipping for Dummies
(06:24) - How Shipping Demand Works
(08:30) - Has Shipping Changed
(16:48) - US Shipbuilding Decline
(26:14) - Tonnage Tax Loophole
(27:15) - Make US Shipping Competitive
(27:54) - Finance Incentives Not Sanctions
(28:56) - Why US Shipbuilding Lags
(31:31) - China Shipbuilding Dominance
(44:36) - Automation And Future Innovation
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Referenced in the Show:
Twitter: https://x.com/mintzmyer
Website: www.vieresearch.com
Box book: https://www.amazon.com/Box-Shipping-Container-Smaller-Economy/dp/0691170819
Chinese automated shipyard (video): https://youtu.be/RXr03aRF_p8?si=1cjIBZaFeTTqhutD

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Mentioned in this episode:
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Crosspost! Shaun Haney and Jacob use the global football tournament as a springboard to discuss nationalism, international institutions, and the role sport plays in bringing people together, while acknowledging that politics inevitably follows major global events.
Shapiro says that international sporting events can provide valuable insight into broader geopolitical trends while also serving as a rare source of optimism.
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Referenced in the Show:
Frontlines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wckZi7rZU3U
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Hamidreza Azizi joins the show once more to ask a deceptively simple question: is the war over? Azizi argues the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is deliberately vague and fully reversible - sanctions relief hinges on a phone call, the $300 billion investment fund is unfunded, and both Iran and the US are already renegotiating its terms through actions, not words. They dig into Iran's Strait of Hormuz fee gambit, China's calculated non-intervention, Turkey's regional rise, and 80% inflation battering Iran domestically. Azizi's verdict: Iran emerges more resilient, not more powerful, and... you'll have to listen to get the rest!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(00:49) - Book Timing and Relevance
(03:49) - Is the War Over
(05:23) - Iranian View of Ongoing War
(11:23) - MOU Favorable to Iran
(12:56) - MOU Details and Reversibility
(18:48) - Strait of Hormuz Fee Debate
(21:05) - Iran Strategy and Leverage Clock
(27:57) - Regional Order in Transition
(35:46) - China and Great Power Dynamics
(42:46) - Turkey and Israel Threat Perception
(46:10) - Iran Domestic Fallout and 60 Day Outlook
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Referenced in the Show:
Hamidreza's Substack - https://www.irananalytica.org/
Hamidreza on X - https://x.com/HamidRezaAz
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Jacob Shapiro sits down with Victor Hernandez, a Mexican national security analyst, to stress-test his own optimism about Mexico. Hernandez argues the army now runs eight ministries' budgets, can't out-spy the cartels, and may face limited US drone strikes Mexico has no way to resist. El Mencho's death looks more like an ambush than a victory. Nearshoring pencils out on a spreadsheet - until corruption and parallel taxation eat the margin. A bracing case for what happens if Jacob's wrong.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro and Framing
(01:29) - Meet Victor Hernandez
(02:44) - Victor Background and Career
(05:00) - Army Trust and Corruption
(07:38) - Blowback and Patriotism
(10:25) - Morena and Military Power
(15:29) - Future of Militarization
(17:24) - Army vs Cartels Capabilities
(22:26) - Will the US Intervene
(26:26) - Drone Strikes Fallout
(29:32) - Cuba Sequencing and Allies
(33:04) - Trade Dependence and Diversification
(39:45) - El Mencho and Cartel Fragmentation
(44:14) - Investing and Nearshoring Risks
(51:05) - What If Victor Is Wrong
(54:24) - Closing and Outro
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Referenced in the Show:
Victor Hernandez - https://www.linkedin.com/in/v%C3%ADctor-hern%C3%A1ndez-979002b0?
ILEES - https://www.ilees.mx/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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You might not realize it, but Jacob also appears on a few other podcasts regularly! Jacob is a regular guest RealAgriculture’s Frontlines podcast, hosted by Shaun Hane. Shaun and Jacob discuss geopolitics from an agricultural lens, exploring how the world reacts to the extremely fine-tuned world of ag.
Many analysts expected a prolonged disruption in the Strait to trigger severe economic fallout. Instead, oil prices have risen, inflation pressures have intensified, and shortages are emerging in some regions, yet markets remain resilient. Jacob argues that oil’s influence on the broader economy is no longer as dominant as it was during previous energy crises. Strategic reserves, alternative supply routes, and new infrastructure projects have helped cushion the impact, even as consumers face higher fuel and food costs. At the same time, he points to inflation as the political challenge that could ultimately shape U.S. policy. While employment numbers remain relatively strong, Jacob contends that household finances are under increasing pressure.

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Referenced in the Show:
Frontlines- https://www.realagriculture.com/2026/06/from-hormuz-to-ai-competing-forces-are-driving-the-global-economy-frontlines-june-2026/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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