The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Florida produced 242 million boxes of oranges in 2003. This year, the USDA is forecasting 12 million... a decline of more than 95% in less than a generation. Jacob sits down with journalist Alexander Sammon, who wrote a definitive autopsy of the Florida orange industry, to understand how disease, globalization, and real estate swallowed one of America's most iconic crops. Scratch the surface of orange juice, and you find geopolitics, government mandates, and the full sweep of 20th century American economic history.
Alex's article below!
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Schedule Update
(00:26) - Meet Alex Salmon
(01:18) - Orange Juice Meets Geopolitics
(02:48) - Florida Orange Collapse
(04:27) - Disease and Perfect Storm
(06:0) -6 Can Science Save Citrus
(10:37) - Farmers Pivot to Real Estate
(14:28) - Nostalgia for Old Florida
(16:58) - Brazil Takes the Baton
(24:25) - Oranges Through History
(26:50) - Canonizing a Classic
(27:39) - Oranges Arrive in Florida
(28:52) - Railroads and Early Boom
(30:02) - War Creates Orange Juice
(30:35) - Geopolitics in Your Glass
(34:02) - Advertising Makes a Staple
(35:49) - Greening and Structural Cracks
(37:26) - Globalization Hollowing Out
(39:23) - Wall Street Consolidation
(42:54) - Juice Backlash and Millennials
(45:16) - Future of Oranges Worldwide
(49:51) - Next Project and Farewell
--
Referenced in the Show:
Who Killed the Florida Orange? - https://slate.com/business/2026/04/florida-state-orange-food-houses-real-estate.html
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
--

Ioan Grillo has spent decades on the ground in Mexico watching the cartels evolve, and his assessment is sobering. Violence has shifted form more than it's receded. Governments change rhetoric, not reality. The U.S. is more involved than anyone admits. And Sheinbaum is threading a needle between Washington's pressure and Mexican sovereignty. A conversation you won't find anywhere else.
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(01:33) - Name Pronunciation
(02:46) - How Cartels Evolved
(03:35) - Violence Plateau Explained
(08:04) - Homicide Stats vs Reality
(10:01) - Sheinbaum Security Strategy
(14:28) - US Role and Intervention
(15:54) - Trump Era Cartel Priority
(20:51) - Sovereignty and Mixed Views
(24:38) - Extraditions and Double Talk
(27:11) - US Role In Mexico
(28:23) - CIA Tactics Debate
(29:11) - Bukele Model Questions
(30:22) - Why Bukele Rose
(34:15) - Crackdown Tradeoffs
(37:53) - Mexico Geography Limits
(39:36) - What Tough Looks Like
(43:19) - Journalism Under Threat
(47:49) - Staying Sane Reporting
(53:01) - Closing And Links
--
Referenced in the Show:

--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
--

Our favorite military analyst, Sim Tack, returns to the pod to assess three different conflicts reshaping global security. In Ukraine, territorial gains are tactical, not strategic; Russian economic endurance remains the real variable. In Iran, a degraded military has reached a stalemate the U.S. and Israel cannot break without regime change. And in Mali, a jihadist advance is threatening to create a new territorial caliphate... with Russia's failed security guarantee quietly accelerating the collapse.
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(01:08) - Sim is Back
(01:56) - Is the World Overwhelming?
(04:23) - AI Briefings and Limits
(06:10) - Drones and War Evolution
(09:44) - Top Conflicts to Watch
(11:59) - Ukraine Strikes and Oil Leverage
(13:53) - Reality Check on Initiative
(18:26) - Zelensky Endgame Options
(23:28) - Russia Staying Power and Economy
(26:15) - NATO Threat Question
(26:46) - Russia Threat Timeline
(27:53) - Can Russia Fight NATO
(29:30) - Satellite Buildup Reality
(30:23) - Europe Rearms Narrative
(35:11) - Asymmetric Threat Debate
(37:06) - Drones Cyber Article Five
(41:11) - US Munitions Bottleneck
(47:39) - Iran Stalemate Logic
(50:27) - How Neutered Is Iran
(53:46) - Mali Jihadist Surge
(57:17) - Closing Thanks Outro
--
Sim's Work:
AllSource Analysis: https://allsourceanalysis.com/work/sim-tack/
Linkedin: https://be.linkedin.com/in/sim-tack-081b313b
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
--

Jacob sits down for a fantastic conversation with author and analyst Dror Poleg to explore how AI is reshaping work, value, and the economy. They unpack why AI is better understood as a medium than a tool, what the shift from tangible to intangible assets means for investors, and why the dynamics of show business now govern every industry - from oil to politics.
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introooo
(01:27) - Twitter and the Text Commons
(04:16) - AI Metaphors Tool or Medium
(07:58) - How LLMs Actually Think
(16:04) - Analog to Digital Generations
(17:39) - Work Capital and Interchangeability
(23:39) - OnlyFans Economy and Discovery
(28:18) - Nonlinear Economy Tangible vs Intangible
(35:45) - Is This Universal China Too
(37:43) - China Fears Volatility
(38:11) - COVID Strategy Contrast
(40:39) - Censorship Arms Race
(42:05) - AI Slips Control
(43:09) - Energy Limits Return
(44:52) - Automation And Work
(47:22) - All Swans Black
(52:36) - Politics Need New Story
(57:50) - Cities For New Economy
(01:03:18) - Warp Speed Government
(01:05:00) - Israel Modern War Paradox
(01:12:18) - Closing And Credits
--
Referenced in the Show:
Dror Poleg's Site and piece referenced - https://www.drorpoleg.com/forty-in-quarantine/
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
--

Peru has had seven presidents in nine years, homicides have nearly doubled, and extortion is up sixfold - and yet the country just tried to buy $3.5 billion worth of F-16s. Elohim Monard returns to diagnose a political crisis that doubles as a case study in great-power failure. From "gross diplomacy" on social media to a runoff framed as "cancer versus HIV," Peru is caught between Washington and Beijing with no strategy of its own.
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(00:37) - Gross Diplomacy Sparks
(01:51) - US Diplomatic Decline
(05:17) - Trump Centralized Foreign Policy
(07:08) - Peru F-16 Deal Controversy
(12:28) - Why F-16s Make No Sense
(17:13) - Peru Budget and Military Inertia
(21:43) - Peru Election and Crime Surge
(24:32) - Fujimori Question Setup
(24:58) - Fujimori Paradox
(26:38) - Instability Origins
(28:32) - Democracy Tradeoffs
(30:43) - Sanchez and Castillo
(33:51) - Cleavages Over Policy
(36:57) - US China Reality Check
(39:03) - Beyond Great Powers
(45:07) - Inequality Fuels Populism
(49:52) - No Offers From Washington
(51:28) - Latin America Leadership Void
(56:44) - Closing and Signoff
--
Referenced in the Show:

--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
--