The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Josh Linville,VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, chats with Jacob about the global fertilizer crisis triggered by disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. They cover why the Middle East dominates fertilizer supply, why the US can't easily fill the gap, which crops and regions are most at risk, and what farmers should do right now to protect themselves.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(01:15) - War Context and Stakes
(02:22) - Fertilizer 101 Big Three
(03:36) - Why Hormuz Matters
(04:55) - Middle East Gas Advantage
(06:12) - Why US Lags Production
(07:56) - Capacity Crunch Explained
(10:47) - China and State Strategy
(13:11) - Build Plants or Reserve
(16:25) - Investment Reality Check
(19:00) - Food Security Imperative
(21:18) - Seasonality and Timing
(23:36) - Global Impacts and Grain
(25:33) - Fertilizer Booking Gaps
(26:44) - Survey Skepticism
(28:59) - Global Risk Hotspots
(30:43) - Yield and Protein Impacts
(32:35) - Fertilizer Supercycles
(36:05) - New Normal or Oversupply
(39:47) - Pinch Points Russia
(41:38) - Beyond the Big Three
(43:19) - Organic Alternatives Limits
(46:33) - Carbon Premium Reality
(48:32) - Key Takeaways Farmers
(50:42) - Wrap Up and Credits
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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Josef Schachter - President of Schachter Energy - walks us through what global oil markets looked like the day before bombs started falling, and what the math looks like now. Prices were already heading higher, the conflict accelerated the timeline, and the U.S. can't drill its way out of a closed Strait of Hormuz. Jacob and Josef also get into Canada's structural advantage, why markets are still surprisingly calm, and what a prolonged conflict means for the global economy. Tune in for more :)
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(00:36) - Prewar Oil Market Setup
(02:24) - War Impact and Price Paths
(05:15) - Ceasefire Doubts and Escalation
(09:02) - Markets vs Reality Gap
(10:32) - Supply Now Product Later
(12:47) - Trump Strategy and Nuclear Endgame
(16:03) - Drill Baby Drill Reality Check
(18:53) - Can Americas Output Replace Gulf
(20:57) - Energy Hegemony and China Angle
(25:18) - Allies Drift and US Quandary
(27:18) - Biofuels Reality Check
(29:38) - War Changes Everything
(31:13) - New Supply Hunt Worldwide
(32:59) - Policy Reversals for Security
(39:31) - Pipelines LNG and Takeaway
(40:38) - Global Plays Beyond Canada
(42:36) - 2030s Demand vs Efficiency
(46:19) - Portfolio Positioning in Energy
(49:48) - Risks That Break the Thesis
(51:39) - Closing and Sign Off
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Referenced in the Show:
Josef's Site - https://schachterenergyreport.ca/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Kabir Taneja, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, joins the podcast for an Indian perspective on the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Jacob and Kabir discuss how ordinary Indians are feeling the economic anxiety of potential energy shortages, India's long-standing policy of non-alignment in the Middle East, its deep ties with Gulf states, and why any lasting regional resolution will ultimately require Iran's security buy-in.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(00:57) - Global Economy Worries
(01:40) - Meet Kabir Taneja
(02:02) - ORF Middle East Explained
(03:26) - Why Dubai Matters
(04:14) - India View on War
(06:46) - Economic Fallout at Home
(08:56) - Politics and Nonalignment
(11:40) - Cooking Gas Stove Detour
(12:51) - What Can India Do
(13:55) - Energy Dependence Reality
(15:01) - Iran Ties and JCPOA
(18:25) - Trump Exit and Trust
(24:58) - China Perception and Border
(27:12) - Galwan Shifts Public Mood
(28:36) - Russia As China Counterweight
(29:28) - China Benefits From Gulf War
(30:51) - Pakistan Diplomatic Surge
(32:46) - Islamabad Reenters Washington
(34:54) - Pakistan Security Leverage
(37:21) - Asymmetric War Lessons
(39:23) - India Pakistan Conventional Focus
(42:10) - Iranian Frigate And US India Ties
(44:56) - India Best Case Strait Outcome
(49:28) - Gulf Partnerships And Multipolarity
(54:48) - Closing Thanks And Signoff
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Referenced in the Show:
Kabir Taneja - https://www.orfonline.org/people-expert/kabir-taneja
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Chase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro rejoins the pod for a candid conversation about the Iran War and its ripple effects on global markets, military strategy, and U.S. geopolitical standing. Jacob and Chase discuss escalation dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, the psychology of both leaderships, and what a realistic off-ramp might look like. They close out on the topic of U.S. competitiveness - covering energy policy, education investment, human capital, and the looming threat of nuclear proliferation.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(01:21) - War Anxiety and Cash Question
(03:26) - Leadership Narratives and Intel Gaps
(06:33) -Iran Capabilities and Escalation
(09:55) - Hormuz Toll Booth Scenarios
(15:35) - Markets Underpricing the Shock
(21:51) - When Crisis Feels Real
(27:23) - Defensive Positioning and Themes
(32:08) - China Gains From Energy Shift
(33:32) - China Soft Power Play
(34:16) - Why Sugar Spikes
(35:55) - Sugar Timing And Refinery
(37:02) - What To Do With 401k
(40:25) - Argentina Energy Bet
(44:19) - Pre War Market Themes
(47:17) - Middle East New Equilibrium
(50:17) - Winners Losers And Energy
(55:28) - US Dutch Disease Debate
(01:02:55) - Human Capital And Nukes
01:06:08 Closing Thanks And Outro
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Referenced in the Show:
Pine Cone Macro - https://www.pineconemacro.com/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Jacob sits down with Laurie McFarlane, co-director of Future Economy Scotland, for a (non-Gulf War related, finally) conversation about what makes Scotland one of the more fascinating geopolitical underdogs around. The two dig into Scotland's constrained economic agency within the UK, the squandered promise of North Sea oil, the renewable energy transition, and why Scotland - like much of Europe - risks sleepwalking into managed decline.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome And Setup
(01:30) - Why Scotland Now
(02:35) - Future Economy Scotland Origins
(05:54) - Early Impact And Strategy
(07:55) - Devolution Limits And Agency
(13:11) - North Sea Oil And Missed Fund
(15:24) - Managed Decline And Renewables
(20:26) - Who Benefits From Wind
(22:04) - UK Pricing And Regional Bills
(24:16) - Decoupling Gas And Next Steps
(27:03) - Green Transition Jobs
(29:26) - Avoiding Deindustrialization
(31:20) - Searching For Analogies
(34:19) - Ireland And Independence
(36:51) - Renewables Leverage Limits
(39:18) - Water As Strategic Asset
(40:57) - Brexit And Global Power
(43:47) - Nukes And Security Debate
(46:41) -Future Growth Model
(49:37) - Sharing Growth Fairly
(52:35) - Europe Coordination Vision
(53:56) - Closing
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Referenced in the Show:
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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