The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tackle three questions: How does the world end in the next 10 years? What core belief could each of us get wrong? And what's the least expected, most likely thing to happen next?
The conversation ranges from deglobalization and collapsing oil supply chains to the demographic cliff facing the developed world, the odds of deflation versus inflation in the 2030s, and whether the global order ends up multipolar, bipolar, or unipolar. They also debate the odds of a US-China clash over Taiwan, and whether the nation-state can survive a coming showdown with the tech companies and billionaires who increasingly control critical infrastructure - including orbit.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Setup
(02:05) - Reunion at the Table
(03:11) - Episode Premise and Format
(04:22) - Zeihan on Deglobalization
(06:42) - Energy Shock Fallout
(08:52) - Demographics and Demand Crash
(11:03) - Deflation vs Inflation Debate
(16:25) - Drone Warfare Dark Turn
(18:21) - Semiconductors Reality Check
(27:27) - Marco Goes Nuclear
(30:10) - Russia Collapse Scenarios
(33:18) - Nukes Spread and Ukraine Endgame
(35:31) - Supply Chain Shockwaves
(36:34) - Putin Hell Bar Joke
(37:18) - Europe Expansion Debate
(39:26) - EU Becomes Military Union
(40:37) - Post Putin Chaos Risks
(43:08) - Russian Elite Succession
(44:27) - Civil War Nuclear Fear
(47:34) - China Fills The Vacuum
(52:26) - Taiwan Timeline Scenario
(53:59) - Drones Nukes And Invasion
(56:43) - Deterrence And Flashpoints
(01:03:34) - China Demographics Clash
(01:05:15) - Depopulation Not Disaster
(01:06:14) - Black Plague Lessons
(01:07:11) - Automation Versus Depopulation
(01:07:22) - Japan China Depopulation Debate
(01:09:31) - End of Nation State
(01:11:18) - Shocks and State Capacity
(01:12:04) - Broken World of More
(01:13:07) - Knowledge Networks Collapse
(01:14:31) - Affluence Feudalism Demand
(01:16:51) - Brittle AI Chip Supply
(01:21:39) - Ingenuity Gap Reversal
(01:23:34) - Rapid Fire Predictions
(01:35:47) - State Versus Tech Showdown
(01:40:24) - Wrap and Break
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Referenced in the Show:
https://zeihan.com/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project, joins the pod to discuss the developments on the other side of the globe. From Ho Chi Minh City, Eric explains how the Global South actually sees the US-Iran war, why nobody expects China to ride to anyone's rescue, and how Vietnam's tariff and energy shocks became a never-again moment. He and Jacob dig into the myth that tariffs can implode China, America's fading China literacy, and why the next order won't be Chinese-led - but China will be its transformational character.
*Note: There are some weird buzzing sounds in the pod, we know! There was some sort of issue uploading the audio, we're on it.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(00:46) - World Cup Travel Chaos
(02:01) - Soccer Politics and Tensions
(03:33) - Meet Eric Olander
(05:32) - China’s Transformation Story
(07:54) - Global South Views of China
(10:26) - China as Daily Operating System
(13:12) - Pew Poll Surprises Explained
(14:10) - Southeast Asia vs Northeast Asia
(17:32) - Why Philippines Aligns With US
(20:10) - Japan Taiwan Flashpoint
(21:15) - Supply Chains and Sea Lanes
(23:36) - Japan Rearms for Post US Era
(28:19) - Japan’s Regional Influence
(30:38) - Japan as Counterbalance
(32:04) - Drone Age Security Shift
(33:05) - South China Sea Alarm
(33:28) - Iran War Global South
(38:37) - China Gains and Risks
(40:46) - No Alliance Expectations
(43:51) - ICBM Test Explained
(47:40) - Decoupling and US Pragmatists
(50:35) - People to People Breakdown
(54:41) - China Blowing Europe Window
(58:56) - Mutual Misunderstanding Finale
(59:55) - Closing Thanks and Signoff
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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Mentioned in this episode:
Check Out Future Hindsight!
If you enjoy our podcast, check out our homies over at Future Hindsight! It's an award-winning weekly podcast that takes big ideas about civic life and democracy and turns them into action items for you and me.
Learn more at www.futurehindsight.com/

Jacob grabs Chris Branch, senior writer at The Athletic and author of The Pulse, to talk about the World Cup as geopolitics. They cover Trump's red-card intervention and the Balogun controversy, England-Argentina and the ghost of the Falklands, why sports and politics were never actually separate, and why China and India can barely qualify while Cape Verde runs wild. Plus: whether soccer ever truly takes hold in America, and why it might take a billionaire treating the sport like a Carnegie library to make it happen.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(01:41) - In-Person Catch-Up
(02:40) - Meet Chris Branch
(03:28) - Why This World Cup Hit Different
(05:09) - Sports Writing Meets Politics
(07:11) - Fan Culture and National Rivalries
(10:24) - FIFA Corruption and New Fans
(14:03) - Picking a Premier League Team
(15:16) - Can Soccer Catch On in America
(17:49) - Why MLS Struggles
(21:55) - Pay-to-Play and US Development
(29:22) - Women’s Soccer and Global Gaps
(33:47) - Trump, FIFA, and the Balogun Saga
(35:29) - Red Card Controversy
(36:25) - Iran Match Bad Karma
(37:37) - Play Anyway Debate
(42:22) - Sports as Common Ground
(44:37) - Stars Politics and Fandom
(56:10) - Money Youth Sports Future
(01:04:53) - Closing Stories and Wrap
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Referenced in the Show:
The Pulse - https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/newsletters/the-pulse/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Mentioned in this episode:
Check out Marketplace Morning Report!
If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee.

Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report
Check out Marketplace Morning Report!
If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee.

Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report

Jacob sits down with J Mintzmyer of Value Investors Edge for a shipping deep-dive (but of course it's a geopolitics lesson in disguise). Mintzmyer argues the industry has barely changed in eleven years, most of the efficiency gains, double hulls, eco-designed vessels, LNG boil-off fixes, were locked in over a decade ago, leaving only regulation to move the needle. The two dig into why the US lost shipbuilding to Japan, Korea, and now China, how the Jones Act complicates the picture, and why America's real shot at relevance lies in owning and financing vessels, not building them.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Setup
(01:20) - Meet J Mintzmyer
(02:38) - Shipping for Dummies
(06:24) - How Shipping Demand Works
(08:30) - Has Shipping Changed
(16:48) - US Shipbuilding Decline
(26:14) - Tonnage Tax Loophole
(27:15) - Make US Shipping Competitive
(27:54) - Finance Incentives Not Sanctions
(28:56) - Why US Shipbuilding Lags
(31:31) - China Shipbuilding Dominance
(44:36) - Automation And Future Innovation
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Referenced in the Show:
Twitter: https://x.com/mintzmyer
Website: www.vieresearch.com
Box book: https://www.amazon.com/Box-Shipping-Container-Smaller-Economy/dp/0691170819
Chinese automated shipyard (video): https://youtu.be/RXr03aRF_p8?si=1cjIBZaFeTTqhutD

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
--
Mentioned in this episode:
Check out Marketplace Morning Report!
If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee.

Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report

Crosspost! Shaun Haney and Jacob use the global football tournament as a springboard to discuss nationalism, international institutions, and the role sport plays in bringing people together, while acknowledging that politics inevitably follows major global events.
Shapiro says that international sporting events can provide valuable insight into broader geopolitical trends while also serving as a rare source of optimism.
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Referenced in the Show:
Frontlines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wckZi7rZU3U
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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