Bloomberg Businessweek

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A growing number of Federal Reserve officials worried the Iran war could further stoke inflation and wanted to make clear following their March meeting that the central bank may have to consider raising interest rates.

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s March 17-18 meeting, released Wednesday in Washington, showed policymakers wrestled with starkly differing scenarios for the US economy following the outbreak of the Iran war, and the policy reactions that might follow.
Most officials worried a protracted war could hurt the labor market and warrant lower interest rates. At the same time, many policymakers highlighted the risk to inflation that might ultimately warrant rate increases.

Officials in the latter camp appeared to become more strident, urging their colleagues to consider adding language to their post-meeting statement that raised the scenario of hiking rates under certain conditions.

“Some participants judged that there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the committee’s future interest-rate decisions in the post-meeting statement, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation were to remain at above-target levels,” the minutes said.
Echoing those concerns, the minutes noted the “vast majority” of officials thought it may take longer to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% goal.

At the meeting, officials held the Fed’s benchmark policy rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at that gathering.

Today's show features:
Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent, breaks Fed Minutes
Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist and Head of US Economic Research
Dr. Ed Husain, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
Michelle Gass, Levi's President & CEO on Levi Boosts Outlook as Direct-to-Consumer Strategy Pays Off
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DraftKings and FanDuel are thriving—but lax regulations, understaffed “responsible gambling” departments, and lack of resources for gambling addicts can make sports betting platforms uniquely insidious. For many users, this new 'vice' has cost them thousands, sometimes millions, while other profit. Danny Funt, Sports Journalist and author of 'Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise of American Sports Gambling' discusses the unsettling truth about America's sports betting boom and how it can cost people everything they have.
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The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that’s expected to halt the American-Israeli military campaign in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump announced the agreement Tuesday on social media hours after Pakistan, a mediator in talks, implored the US leader to back off his deadline to unleash massive devastation on Iran if it did not meet his demands. The deal buys time for the two sides to reach a longer agreement to end the six-week-old war, which has killed thousands of people and sparked a global energy crisis.
Trump said he had agreed “to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” as long as Iran agrees to “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.”

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Bloomberg State Department and Foreign Policy Reporter Eric Martin
Bloomberg This Weekend co-host Christina Ruffini
Bloomberg White House and Washington correspondent Jeff Mason
Terry Haines, founder of Pangea Policy
Daniel Byman, Director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program at the Center
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The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy.
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President Donald Trump has threatened “all Hell” will rain down on Iran if it doesn’t agree to a ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Eastern time on April 7. Is this a bluff intended to push Tehran to the negotiating table, or a credible threat?

With the deadline nearing, Iran rejected the latest US proposal for a deal to end the war and continued regional strikes. Trump intensified his threats — warning a “civilization will die tonight” — and the US reattacked Iran’s Kharg island. Further escalation appears more likely than negotiations. That’s consistent with our base case that the war will see a sharp escalation followed by a shift to lower-intensity fighting.

Treasuries fell amid mounting oil prices in the run-up to US President Donald Trump’s late-Tuesday deadline for Iran to agree to terms for ending American attacks.

The declines lifted yields by as much as five basis points, with long-maturity tenors rising most. Ten- and 30-year yields reached session highs against an array of conflicting signals about whether Trump’s threats of mass destruction are likely to come to pass.

Oil prices — a principal driver of Treasury yields since the US assault on Iran began Feb. 28 — rose, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures by as much as 4.6% from Monday’s multi-year high close. Yields reached year-to-date highs in late March as energy prices mounted, however they retreated from those levels amid mounting fears the oil shock will hit economic growth.

Today's show features:
Jennifer Welch, Bloomberg Economics Chief Geoeconomics Analyst
Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Portfolio Solutions Group CIO
Michael Gross, SLR Capital Partners Co-Founder
Sastry Durvasula, TIAA Chief Operating, Information and Digital Officer
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Meet Mrs. Meyers: the 93-year-old woman who gave birth to nine children in ten years and inspired a legacy line of household cleaning products. One of her children decided to reinvent the tired, toxic, and boring category of household cleaning products by creating her own competition, in her mother's inspiration.
Monica Nassif, is founder of Mrs. Meyer's Clean Day and author of the new book, 'I Bottled My Mother: The Mrs. Meyer’s Story: Grit, Grime & Growing a Business'. She discusses tips of building a startup, the challenges of raising money as a woman in business, and daily meditations from Mrs. Meyers.
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