The 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson

1) Polling results
Overall approval: 51% after the speech; disapproval: 48%.
Intensity: 47.1% “strongly approve,” 3.7% “approve”; 39.1% “strongly disapprove,” 8.5% “disapprove.”
Timing & sample: “More than a thousand likely voters,” fielded Feb 24–26. (No pollster name or methodology details provided.)
2) Themes of the speech:
Patriotic-historical arc: From the Founding to modern achievements, the speech casts America as uniquely innovative and liberating, invoking Providence and positioning the current era as the continuation of the 1776 “revolution.”
Identity & destiny: Repeated motifs of American courage, industry, and an imminent “bigger, better, brighter” future.
3) Specific policy messages:
Taxes: Pledges no tax on tips and no tax on overtime to boost take‑home pay.
Regulation: Calls to cut rules that purportedly raise vehicle costs
Housing affordability: institutional investors have driven up prices by buying large numbers of single‑family homes.
A signed executive order bans such investors from additional single‑family purchases, and urges Congress to codify the ban.
A perceived tax-preference disparity (depreciation available to corporations but not individual homeowners).
“America will not become a nation of renters.”

Blackstone’s stock erased up to $17B in value “within minutes” after the announcement regarding institutional investors and housing. (No ticker, timestamp, or source provided.)
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1. Supreme Court Tariff Decision
A predicted 5–4 ruling upholding presidential tariff authority was incorrect; the Court ruled 6–3 against the administration’s use of one specific tariff statute (AIPA).
Majority held that the statute allowed banning imports but not charging tariffs—a conclusion strongly criticized in the dissents (Kavanaugh, Thomas).
Despite the ruling, the impact is expected to be limited, as the President has multiple other statutes still available to impose tariffs.
A new 10–15% tariff was quickly announced using alternate legal authority.
The administration still retains broad power using:
Section 338 (1930 Tariff Act) – allows tariffs up to 50% for discriminatory treatment.
Section 122 (Trade Act of 1974) – 15% tariffs for 150 days (renewable).
Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974) – addresses unfair foreign trade practices.
Section 232 (Trade Expansion Act of 1962) – tariffs for national‑security threats.
Section 201 (Trade Act of 1974) – safeguard tariffs for import surges.
Litigation may unfold for years, potentially costing billions over refunded or contested tariffs.
China and Democrats were portrayed as celebrating the ruling, implying political dimension rather than policy substance.
Administration aims to use tariffs as leverage for better trade deals, not as permanent protectionism.
2. State of the Union (SOTU) Speech Impact
Speech viewed as effective, more disciplined, and likely helpful for midterm momentum.
Highlighted major administration achievements: Border control and sharp decline in illegal crossings.
Crime reductions (e.g., murder and overdose rates reportedly down by ~20%).
Economic relief themes like no tax on tips and overtime.

Strong emotional moments involving veterans, Olympians, and American heroes created bipartisan resonance.
Speaker Johnson and congressional Republicans portrayed as unusually unified.
Coordination with the President seen as stronger than in previous cycles.
3. The Olympic Contrast: Alysa Liu vs. Eileen Gu Alysa Liu
Daughter of a Chinese refugee who fled Tiananmen Square.
Target of CCP intimidation and espionage on U.S. soil.
Required 24/7 FBI protection before the Beijing Olympics.
Despite pressure, competed for Team USA and won gold.
Story framed as patriotic, resilient, and emotionally powerful.
Eileen Gu
Also U.S.-born with Chinese heritage.
Chose to compete for China after being offered substantial financial incentives.
Criticism focused on choosing a communist regime over the U.S., though the speakers avoided personal attacks.
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1. FBI Firings Linked to Jack Smith Investigation
At least ten FBI employees were fired for actions connected to Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into Donald Trump’s handling of classified documents.
The firings followed revelations that the FBI had secretly obtained phone records of Kash Patel and Susie Wiles while they were private citizens.
2. Secret Seizure of Phone Records
Reuters reported that the FBI subpoenaed call records of: Kash Patel (former Trump adviser)
Susie Wiles (Trump campaign manager and later White House Chief of Staff)

Some records dated back to the 2020–2023 period.
Files were allegedly hidden under a “prohibited” category in FBI systems, making them hard to find.
3. Recorded Call Between Wiles and Her Attorney
The FBI recorded a phone call between Susie Wiles and her attorney.
Wiles did not know she was being recorded.
Her attorney did know and consented, which raised ethical questions.
4. Lack of Clarity on Target of Investigation
Reuters could not confirm: Whether Wiles or Patel were official investigative targets.
Who approved the subpoenas.
When exactly surveillance began or ended.

5. GOP Shock and Political Backlash
Smith’s investigative methods—including seizure of records from senators and GOP officials—prompted strong backlash from Republican leaders.
Critics argue that Smith’s investigations appear politically motivated, especially given Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.
6. DHS Scandal Parallel
DHS Secretary Kristi Noem revealed that her own employees installed spyware on her phone and laptop.
Employees were caught spying on her meetings.
Several were fired after polygraph testing.
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1. Allegations of DOJ/FBI Surveillance
The Biden DOJ and FBI spied on Trump‑aligned individuals, including: Susie Wiles (Trump campaign figure)
Kash Patel

Allegations include secret subpoenas for phone records, including calls involving attorneys, raising concerns about attorney‑client privilege.
This is part of a broader history of political weaponization of federal agencies.
DOJ/FBI surveillance also targeted several Republican senators and conservative groups.
This fits into what they describe as a long-standing trend starting under Obama.
Comparisons are made to historical incidents such as the Steele Dossier, the Russia investigation, and alleged misuse of federal agencies.

2. Tale of Two Olympians
Alysa Liu
Competed for the United States.
Story highlighted as: Daughter of a refugee who fled China after Tiananmen Square.
Target of Chinese government intimidation, according to the hosts.
Won Olympic gold, portrayed as a patriotic American success story.

Eileen Gu
Competed for China despite being raised in the U.S.
Accepted substantial financial incentives (as stated by the hosts).
Hosts argue that although she’s talented, choosing to compete for China invites criticism due to geopolitical tensions.
3. Concerns About Declining American Pride
A Gallup poll is showing: Significant decline in Americans who are “very proud” of being American.
The drop is described as steepest among Democrats, according to the data discussed.

Commentary attributes this trend to: Cultural and educational shifts.
University and K‑12 environments promoting negative views of the U.S.

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1. Cuba Coast Guard Incident
A US‑registered speedboat was fired upon by Cuban authorities, resulting in 4 deaths and 6 injuries.
Cuba claims: The boat’s occupants fired first.
Passengers (Cuban nationals living in the US) carried assault rifles, handguns, body armor, etc.
The group was attempting armed infiltration with terrorist intent.

The US position: Nothing is verified yet; US agencies are investigating.
Officials (Rubio, Vance, DHS, Coast Guard) are demanding access to survivors.
No indication the operation had any US government involvement.

The event raises fears of a major diplomatic flashpoint, given: Historical tension (e.g., 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown).
Current hardline US posture toward Cuba.

2. Minnesota Medicaid Fraud Crackdown
The Trump administration has paused $259.5 million in Medicaid reimbursements to Minnesota over large‑scale fraud concerns.
Fraud schemes allegedly include: Paying mothers $1,000 to falsely diagnose children with autism to bill Medicaid.
A provider billing for 450 days of work exceeding 24 hours/day.
Centers billing for beneficiaries who were already deceased.

VP JD Vance and CMS Director Dr. Oz emphasize: The fraud involves home and community‑based services that are hard to audit.
Minnesota must submit a corrective action plan or risk losing up to $1 billion in funds.
Providers have already been paid by Minnesota; the federal government is withholding reimbursement from the state, not from citizens.

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