Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov

Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov talk through the latest polls, numbers, and close races 12 days before Election Day. Trump’s approval rating has hit a new low — just 36% among likely voters in the latest NYT/Siena poll. And in South Carolina, a new poll has Republican incumbent Darline Graham with only a 3-point lead over Democratic challenger Dr. Annie Andrews — a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1998. Trump was on the campaign trail there yesterday. Is this panic — or smart politics?

Scott and Jess also dig into the controversy over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign ad featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother, and what it means for the Ohio governor’s race. JD Vance also weighed in, saying he is “disgusted” by Republicans who pushed back on the ad.

The first Russian diesel tanker under Trump’s deal is said to be leaving for the U.S. on Thursday, after Russia freed a 74-year-old American that had been held imprisoned for four years. And Reuters reports that peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. could resume soon. But the Wall Street Journal is now reporting that it was Elon Musk himself who ordered the Starlink slowdown that has significantly hindered Ukraine’s ability to defend itself — despite his earlier public claim that any limits were set by the U.S. military or the president.

Wednesday’s Michigan Senate debate between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers got heated. El-Sayed hammered Rogers over his ties to Trump and the Iran war, while Rogers attempted to smear El-Sayed by alleging he had connections to the Muslim Brotherhood — accusations El-Sayed has repeatedly denied. How will this race turn out?

And finally: new polling shows double-digit drops in favorability for “manosphere” figures like Joe Rogan, Elon Musk, and Tucker Carlson among men aged 18 to 30 — the very group who helped deliver to Trump in 2024. Trump, Vance, and the GOP are all now viewed unfavorably by this crucial demographic. What’s behind the shift — and was the manosphere’s influence always overrated? Scott shares some data, and some thoughts.

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Jessica Tarlov and Aaron Parnas open with Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, who is facing backlash after praising Vladimir Putin during talks in Moscow, even as Russian forces continue to bombard Ukrainian cities and kill civilians. Russia also released a 74-year-old American citizen from a Russian prison after seven years. Is that a sign of good faith or a negotiating chip?

Mike Bloomberg is pouring $80 million into the midterms, including at least $50 million for House races, as Democrats look to expand their majority. A new New York Times/Siena poll shows Democrats leading the national House vote by 11 points and leading Republicans on every major issue, including immigration. Republicans still hold a significant fundraising advantage, with the RNC moving more than $50 million to its campaign committees.

A Wedgewood poll that helped push Mallory McMorrow out of the Michigan Senate primary has been exposed as fraudulent, after major aggregators had already included it. Is it time to regulate the polling industry?

Things have gotten ugly in the Ohio governor’s race. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is running an ad featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother. For years, well before she ran for office, Acton has said her mother was part of an unstable home where she experienced homelessness and sexual abuse. Ramaswamy has now admitted the ad came from his campaign. The Columbus Dispatch endorsed Acton as a direct result, and Ramaswamy was heckled at a campaign event last night. Has he gone too far, and is there still a limit to how low races are willing to go?

In New Hampshire, former Senator John Sununu is running ads distancing himself from Trump as he tries to win back the seat he lost in 2008. His opponent is Democratic Representative Chris Pappas. Is this a smart strategy for a New Hampshire Republican, and does Sununu’s history of criticizing Trump make it land as genuine?

In New York’s 17th Congressional District, Democratic challenger Cait Conley is trying to unseat Republican incumbent Mike Lawler in one of the most competitive House races in the country. Lawler is tying Conley to the Democratic left flank, while Conley makes the case that Lawler is too close to Trump. How does this play out?

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Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov open the final two weeks before Election Day with the latest on some of the midterms’ most closely-watched races. They talk about some of the latest numbers — including the stat that Kalshi gives Democrats a 64% chance of retaking the Senate.

Trump was in Kansas last night rallying for Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, who is facing an unexpectedly close race against Democrat challenger Rev. Adam Hamilton. Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years. How strong is the Democratic momentum — and what does competitive Kansas tell us about the whole map?

Violent protests continue to shake France, where a curfew was in effect last night in parts of Paris and other cities. What began as students mobilizing against teacher shortages and run-down classrooms has expanded into a broader movement against the rising cost of living. Around 550,000 people joined protests over the weekend and police arrested approximately 2,400 people. How bad is the situation — and could this kind of unrest spread to other European nations?

Elon Musk says he will give a SpaceX share to every American child next year — a giveaway that would be worth approximately $10.7 billion at current share prices. But Musk is also spending heavily on Republicans right now: FEC filings show he gave $158 million last month to the Senate Leadership Fund, which directed that money to a PAC largely dedicated to ads backing Ken Paxton, the Republican running for Senate in Texas. Paxton’s opponent James Talarico is making Musk’s spending a central campaign issue. Is the SpaceX giveaway a genuine gesture — or will this promise be empty, like so many of Musk’s past pledges?

And finally: A Democratic candidate for a seat on a local county council in Indiana has gone viral. Jaime West blew up last week, after video spread of her giving a rambling rant during a televised forum. Speaking with Piers Morgan last night, she explained herself — saying she was nervous being in a room full of Republicans… and insisted that, while she might have had a drink or two (or three), she knows what she’s talking about.

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Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov open the final two weeks before Election Day — with early voting starting today in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, South Carolina, and Texas. Democrats are up 8 points on the congressional ballot in a new Ipsos poll, Trump’s disapproval rating sits at 66%, and a new Wall Street Journal poll finds Democratic voters aren’t sold on a leftward shift. Kalshi gives Sherrod Brown a 66% chance of winning back his Senate seat in Ohio, and Abdul El-Sayed has got a 68% chance of winning in Michigan.

Trump has waived new sanctions and tariffs on Russia required under a law he previously signed — two days before they were set to take effect, claiming he needs to keep Moscow at the negotiating table. Putin has proposed a three-way meeting with Trump and Xi Jinping next month to discuss Ukraine on terms favorable to Moscow. Meanwhile Trump is blaming Ukrainian President Zelenskyy for high diesel prices after Ukraine struck a Russian oil export terminal in St. Petersburg as part of its biggest drone campaign of the year. Jess breaks down whether any of Trump’s justifications hold up — and whether the Ukraine situation is being used to distract from the unresolved Iran conflict. Trump also just endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for re-election. Is there anything surprising about that?

Scott and Jess also talk about Vice President JD Vance’s comments about the Iran war during a Michigan town hall, and what this might signal for Republicans trying to manage public sentiment heading into the midterms.

Plus, Jess and Scott take listener questions.

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Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov open with a striking headline just 19 days before the midterms: House Republicans are privately bracing for the possibility of losing the chamber. Polls are showing competitive races in Kentucky, North Carolina, and Nevada — in some districts Trump carried by 10 points or more in 2024. Trump is out giving rallies in Texas, Ohio, and Alaska — states Republicans wouldn’t normally have to fight for.

Ukraine has defied Trump’s energy ceasefire. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that his military will resume striking Russian oil refineries — a direct rebuke of Trump’s deal with Putin. A Zelenskyy advisor says Elon Musk’s SpaceX recently imposed restrictions on Ukraine’s drone-mounted Starlink terminals, diminishing their air defenses. Musk responded by avoiding accountability — saying that any limits are set by the military or the president. Scott and Jess ask the bigger question: what is the actual plan for Ukraine right now?

Kamala Harris is hitting the campaign trail hard, heading to Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and more in a rapid-fire midterm push. Those states also happen to be key 2028 battlegrounds. Will she be running for president again in 2028? One Democratic strategist said this week that Kamala “totally blew it” by not going on the campaign trail sooner, and reports say that her husband Doug Emhoff has privately told people he’d prefer she not run. How much of a shadow 2028 race is already underway?

Social Security recipients are getting a raise — in 2027, payments will receive their largest cost-of-living boost in four years. Scott and Jessica talk about this in contrast to wage growth and inflation, and brainstorm ways to keep Social Security relevant and funded. Will this have a meaningful impact on the economy and the debt, or is it a routine adjustment?

Pope Leo XIV has been diagnosed with lung cancer at age 71, following surgery to remove a lesion that the Vatican described as successful. The public disclosure marks a dramatic shift in how the Vatican handles papal health — Scott and Jess weigh in on what that transparency signals, and about the moral clarity and technological vision put forth by the first American pope.

Get your Pivot Tour Tickets: pivottour.com

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