Stephan Livera Podcast

Even as ETFs and MicroStrategy sell into weakness, natural spot demand has kept Bitcoin from collapsing in what may be the shallowest bear market on record. The real test now is time pain, the grinding boredom that forces out remaining weak hands after the initial price capitulation.
James Check, founder of Checkonchain.com, joins me to break down the current cycle through on-chain data and market psychology. His framework distinguishes price pain from the subsequent time pain that historically marks the true bottom.
Checkmate examines why short-term holders flipped into high-conviction buyers, why 53K realized price now acts as a floor, the Pareto distribution among Bitcoin treasury companies, and why most copycat strategies will fail in the months ahead.
Timestamps:
00:56 — Last Day of Bear Feels Worst
03:26 — Time Pain Grinds Out Weak Hands
05:53 — Shallowest Bear Market Ever Seen
08:53 — Spot Buyers Saving Bitcoin From Zero
11:14 — Short-Term Holders Are Now Smart Money
15:28 — July Bear Bottom: 8-Method Average
18:50 — 53K Realized Price Now the Floor
23:00 — Buy Bottom 15% and Just DCA
28:30 — The AI Trade
30:46 — Bitcoin and Gold Share a Rare Moat
35:23 — Will Most Bitcoin Treasuries Fail?
37:37 — MSTR's Sale of Bitcoin
41:28 — Bitcoin Treasuries Follow Harsh Pareto Rule
47:30 — Bitcoin Treasuries Next Cycle
49:05 — High-Yield Trap?
Links: 
https://x.com/_Checkmatey_

https://x.com/_checkonchain

checkonchain.com

https://charts.checkonchain.com

http://newsletter.checkonchain.com/

Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

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#StephanLivera #StephanLiveraPodcast #Bitcoin #BearMarket #OnChain #Checkmate #TimePain #RealizedPrice #BitcoinTreasury #MarketCycles

Radar integrates self-custodial Bitcoin payments directly into Signal's messaging network, eliminating the need for separate apps or custodians when sending value to contacts.
Seth for Privacy, from the Cake Wallet team, explains how Radar targets everyday users rather than Bitcoin maximalists by preserving Signal's privacy model while adding instant Lightning-enabled transfers via Spark.
The discussion covers seamless account migration from Signal, offline payment receives, wallet risk limits for non-critical funds, and the decision to pursue VC funding through a separate entity.
Timestamps:
00:49 — Why Messaging & Payments Stay Separate
03:34 — Migrate Signal Account Without Losing Data
08:18 — Send Bitcoin Instantly With One Tap
10:10 — Receive Payments Completely Offline
11:40 — Bitcoin for Everyone, Not Just Bitcoiners
14:21 — Don't Put Life Savings in Hot Wallet
17:10 — Signal Can't See Your Bitcoin Payments
19:13 — Donating Monthly to Signal Foundation
22:48 — Radar Takes VC Path Unlike Cake
Links: 
Radar Chat: https://radar.chat

@SethForPrivacy: https://x.com/sethforprivacy

Cake Wallet: https://cakewallet.com

Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

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Payjoin delivers transaction batching driven by real economic activity rather than waiting for pool participants, while also cutting fees through direct net settlement between counterparties.
Dan Gould, maintainer of Payjoin DevKit, explains how the new async protocol and oblivious HTTP relay change what is practical for mobile wallets today.
The conversation covers current live deployments in Bull Bitcoin and Cake Wallet, remaining fingerprinting heuristics beyond common input ownership, the multi-party roadmap, and how developers can integrate the library with under ten thousand lines of code.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Payjoin DevKit
01:46 — Live Payjoins in Wallets Today
04:25 — No Waiting for Batch Pools
06:14 — Payjoin Works on Mobile Phones
08:29 — Oblivious HTTP Hides Your IP
10:05 — Fingerprinting Still an Issue?
14:02 — Net Settlement Saves Big Fees
15:36 — Multi-Party Payjoin Roadmap
17:10 — Build Payjoin in a Weekend
Links: 
https://x.com/brian_trollz/status/2069465912143749462 

https://github.com/payjoin/payjoin.org/pull/143 

https://payjoindevkit.org/ 

https://x.com/bitgould

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A South African circular economy is already running real payments on Fedimint with seven guardians on Start9 boxes. Users send eCash with zero fees inside the federation and feel the same simplicity as Wallet of Satoshi—except the custody is local and the privacy model is different.
Hermann and Joshi explain how non-technical guardians set up 5-of-7 multisig, how the Conduit wallet hides complexity, and why Fedimint beats Liquid on on-chain integration and local trust. They also cover Lightning gateway economics and why small federations may beat one global Spark.
Bitcoiners exploring Lightning, eCash privacy, and circular economies in emerging markets should listen.
Key Takeaways:
Seven-guardian 5-of-7 multisig on Start9 now runs daily in South Africa with high reliability.

Users inside the same federation enjoy true zero-fee eCash transfers.

Conduit wallet offers a lighter, payments-focused alternative to Fedi with regional QR support.

Migration between federations is smooth with parallel running and user-controlled timing.

Fedimint severs the transaction graph for privacy while Liquid hides amounts but retains the graph.

Local guardians reduce the “custodial guilt” felt when onboarding users to foreign services.

Lightning gateways can become profitable side businesses with only a few hours of monthly work.

Geographic spread of guardians improves resilience against local internet or power outages.

Onboarding still requires one extra step—joining the federation—after app install.

Fedimint is on-chain native, allowing direct receive and send without intermediate swaps.

Timestamps:
00:00 - Fedimint Goes Live in South Africa
01:48 - Magic: Pay Across Africa
04:15 - Onboard Users Without Custodial Guilt
08:08 - Zero Fees Shock Rural Users
11:04 - Liquid vs Fedimint Privacy Showdown
13:32 - Many Small Federations Or Global Spark
16:09 - Non-Techies Run Bitcoin Guardians Easily
18:14 - 5-of-7 Multisig Survives Two Failures
20:53 - Fedimint QR Is a 5-of-7 Multisig
24:05 - Gateway: Profitable Hobby in Hours/Month
31:06 - Trust Locals Over Anonymous Custodians
34:55 - Spread Guardians to Survive Outages
Links: 
Bitcoin Ekasi: https://bitcoinekasi.org

Fedimint: https://fedimint.org

Conduit Wallet: https://joschisan.github.io/conduit/

SLP651 with Eric & Joschi: https://stephanlivera.com/651

Follow Hermann: https://x.com/vryfokkenou

Follow Joschi: https://x.com/joschisanbtc

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In this episode,  NVK rejoins me to discuss the latest developments in Bitcoin self-custody, hardware wallets, and privacy solutions, providing valuable insights for enthusiasts and practitioners alike.
Timestamps:
00:00 Quarterly Self-Custody Update
01:28 Sparrow Wallet Update & Silent Payments
05:41 Coldcard MK5 & Recent Firmware Updates
07:53 The Evolution of Co-signing & MuSig2
11:58 Liana & Nunchuk Wallet Updates
17:16 Cove, BlueWallet & Mobile Wallet Progress
19:09 BitKey V2 & Pragmatic Self-Custody
22:55 Open Hardware Wallet Project Updates
27:15 Merchant Payments & Bitcoin Commerce
31:19 Stable Balance Wallets & Self-Custody
36:38 Hardware Wallet Security Updates
39:07 ARCA: Personal Data Haven Explained
Links: 

Stephan Livera links:
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