784 episodes
Debt, Oil, AI and Bitcoin: A Gradual Print Until It Isn't | James Lavish SLP784
2026/10/26 | 46 mins.James Lavish explains why he expects a gradual print to turn into a big one, what weak Treasury auctions signal, and what he got wrong about Bitcoin this cycle.
Timestamps
00:00 — Intro
00:48 — Markets: Warsh, Oil and a Narrow Rally
04:22 — How Much Debt Will AI Need?
08:41 — Outgrowing the Debt: A Polite Fiction
10:50 — Brent at $108, 10-Year at 5.13%
13:44 — Weak Auctions and Who Buys Treasuries
15:54 — Oil Shock: Supply, Not Demand
18:03 — If CoreWeave Trips: The Downside Case
19:56 — How the Fed and Treasury Would Respond
24:15 — The Base Case: Growth and Nominal Inflation
28:49 — Big Print or Gradual Print?
32:58 — Gradual Until All Bets Are Off
34:07 — Why Faith in the Dollar Breaks Slowly
38:11 — What James Got Wrong This Cycle
39:54 — Decentralization and Politics as Hurdles
41:59 — JPMorgan's Shift and Career Risk
43:45 — Why Bitcoin Over AI?- Official Podcast Episode: https://stephanlivera.com/783
Alex Recouso argues that Bitcoin solved capital mobility but not human mobility: you can move money across borders without permission, yet you still need permission to move yourself. His answer is that everyone should think about a second passport before they need one, because, as he puts it, you can't buy insurance once the house is on fire.
Alex is co-founder and CEO of CitizenX. He says he discovered the idea of alternative citizenship at 14, and that understanding Bitcoin in 2020 convinced him it was the missing piece. CitizenX sells citizenship by investment programs and, by his account, advises governments, including El Salvador, so he is not a neutral observer.
He splits buyers in two: citizenship programs suit people with high liquidity and low mobility, while residency and naturalization suit people with high mobility and less capital. They cover the main tiers, from cheaper Plan B passports to Caribbean programs, Turkey, El Salvador and Argentina's newly announced program, and why he prefers donation routes to government-approved real estate.
The downsides get airtime too. Alex expects EU pressure to cost Caribbean programs their visa-free access or make them unattractive. He argues European rules can change overnight, citing Italy's flat tax and Spain's closed golden visa. And naturalization through residency is cheaper but never guaranteed. They close on AI's limits as an advisor, rising versus established countries, and compounding in a low-tax place.
Timestamps
00:00 — Intro
00:43 — Bitcoin Solved Capital, Not Human, Mobility
02:04 — Selling Citizenship: Countries Competing
05:14 — Buy or Earn: Liquidity vs Mobility
06:57 — Why Program Prices Rise and Fall
08:55 — Weak Passports vs Plan B Buyers
11:32 — Donation vs Real Estate Routes
13:35 — Three Tiers: Plan B, Caribbean, Outliers
17:06 — Argentina's Program: Costs and Country Risk
20:09 — EU Pressure and Schengen Risk
23:12 — What Countries Gain or Risk
25:52 — Beyond Visa-Free: Settlement Rights
28:43 — HENRYs, Urgency, and Sequencing
31:14 — Insurance Before the House Is on Fire
33:06 — Naturalization Is Cheaper but Not Guaranteed
37:00 — Changed Rules in Portugal, Italy, Spain
41:07 — UAE, Singapore and Citizenship Limits
42:49 — CitizenX vs Traditional Firms
47:08 — Can AI Replace Citizenship Advisors?
49:02 — Rising Countries: High Risk, High Reward
51:34 — Lower Taxes and Compounding
Links:
https://x.com/recouso
https://x.com/CitizenX
https://citizenx.com/
Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera
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Subscribe to Substack Debanking and Bitcoin Business Accounts in the EU | Prashanth Chandrashekar SLP782
2026/10/19 | 37 mins.Prashanth Chandrashekar argues that much of Europe's debanking comes down to how banks score transfers. Money arriving from a crypto exchange's account is treated as a higher-risk third-party payment, while a transfer between two accounts in your own name passes with far fewer flags. Bringin's answer is a named virtual IBAN for each customer, which he says lowers the risk of being debanked rather than removing it.
Prashanth, who is from India, started Bringin after moving to Estonia holding Bitcoin and finding he couldn't easily spend it. He now runs the company's consumer app and its new business accounts.
They cover MiCA's licensing reset, which by his figures left only about 30% of earlier firms licensed but lets the survivors passport across the EU; accounts closed without explanation under tipping-off rules; and how named IBANs differ from the deposit IBANs exchanges hand out. On the consumer wallet, built on Spark, he is direct about the trade-offs: operators are mostly centralized and can see payments, though they cannot move funds alone.
On Bringin for Business, he describes pilot users such as mining-rig sellers paying suppliers abroad, plus stablecoin support and accounting exports. The custody model differs from the consumer app: keys sit in a hosted Turnkey enclave with spending policies, Bringin holds an extra key in multi-director setups, seed export is discouraged, and ownership changes run through Bringin's backend. Third-party euro payments were promised within days of recording, and corporate cards are not yet available.
Disclosure: Stephan is a small investor in and advisor to Bringin.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Intro
00:37 — MiCA: Costly but Passportable
03:28 — Debanking: Why Banks Block Exchange Flows
07:04 — Named vIBANs vs Exchange Deposit IBANs
11:25 — Spark Self-Custody and Its Trust Trade-offs
13:03 — Why Banks Are Harder on Businesses
15:22 — Who Joined the Business Pilot
18:08 — Beyond Debanking: Accounting Headaches
20:31 — Business Keys in Turnkey Enclaves
24:53 — Key Rotation Runs Through Bringin's Backend
26:24 — Roadmap: Third-Party Payments, No Cards Yet
30:45 — Next Customers: Stablecoins and Agents
33:31 — Regulation Outlook: DAC8 and Data Risk
34:39 — AI Agents, MCP, and Payments
Links:
https://x.com/prashanthc123
https://x.com/bringinxyz
https://bringin.app/business
Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera
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Subscribe to Substack- Setzeus argues that 90% of people will never properly use seed phrases and hardware wallets, and that services like Privy and Turnkey, which split a key behind an email or phone login, are a good-enough floor for self-custody. Stephan pushes back on what that gives up: verifiability, portability across devices, and a degree of vendor lock-in.
Setzeus (Jesus Najera) runs SetDev, a Bitcoin L2 and metaprotocol engineering and security shop whose biggest client has been Stacks. He built BitScript and founded Cofund, a cross-chain multisig web app aimed at families, fiduciaries, and founders.
The conversation opens on the recent run of hacks, including the Coldcard incident, and his view that the cryptography is not broken but AI has made attacks on everything around it cheaper. They cover Justin Drake's "bunker mode" post, why Bitcoin builders get nerd-sniped by technology over product, why multisig adoption remains small, and whether ETFs are better than nothing for people who won't self-custody.
On Cofund itself, Setzeus explains spending policies built from signer sets, thresholds, and rules on Taproot script paths. He is plain about the limits: on Bitcoin only the signer set is enforced on-chain, spend caps rely on the client without covenants, rotating a signer means moving funds to a new set, and the free tier charges a 1% transaction fee.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Intro
00:37 — From SetDev's L2 Work to Multisig
03:20 — After the Coldcard Hack: Why Self-Custody?
07:56 — Justin Drake's Bunker Mode and ECDSA
10:13 — Are Bitcoiners Bad at Building Products?
15:59 — Seed Phrases vs Privy-Style Key Sharding
20:25 — Trade-offs: Verifiability and Lock-In
25:35 — Recommending Self-Custody After Hacks
30:40 — Families, Fiduciaries, and Founders
34:25 — Spending Policies via Taproot Script Paths
37:24 — Limit: Bitcoin Spend Caps Not On-Chain
39:59 — Key Rotation Means Moving Funds
41:11 — Cofund Pricing and Fees
42:03 — Thesis: Multisig Becomes Joint Accounts
Links:
https://x.com/getcofund
https://x.com/setzeus
https://getcofund.com/
Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera
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Subscribe to Substack - Andrew Webley walks through Smarter Web's capital structure—ordinary shares as growth equity, a repaid short convert, Coinbase credit, and MORE as the income preferred.
Webley is CEO of The Smarter Web Company (LSE: SWC), the UK's largest publicly traded Bitcoin treasury. He traces the path from Hargreaves Lansdown to listing on Aquis, then the LSE Main Market, while building toward roughly 2,747 BTC on the balance sheet.
The conversation covers ordinary shares versus preferred equity, why SWC repaid its short convert, how the Coinbase credit facility fits a "buy leverage when cheap" playbook, and the launch of MORE—an income preferred designed alongside SWC growth equity. Webley contrasts treasury companies with ETFs and spot Bitcoin, stressing Bitcoin-per-share growth, liquidity for institutions, and GBP denomination without US dividend withholding.
He also flags the downsides: treasury structures amplify Bitcoin volatility, management can mess up capital allocation, and in a drawdown there is no guarantee that equity, credit, or preferreds will be available.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Intro
00:25 — Hargreaves Lansdown to Smarter Web
02:09 — Saylor Pivot Was His Bitcoin Moment
04:00 — Listing the UK Treasury Play
08:44 — Clean Balance Sheet Structure
11:25 — Coinbase Credit at the Bottom
14:32 — Debt vs NAV Reporting
19:45 — Bitcoin-per-Share vs Total Return
21:32 — How Institutions Actually Buy
25:02 — Treasury Co vs ETF vs Bitcoin
28:12 — MORE Preferred Equity Explained
30:17 — Amplification Cap at 35%
33:11 — Sterling Preferred Advantage
37:49 — Downside Risks: Volatility and Execution
40:27 — Drawdowns and Uncertain Capital Access
Links:
https://x.com/asjwebley
https://x.com/smarterwebuk
https://www.smarterwebcompany.co.uk/
Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera
Subscribe to the podcast
Subscribe to Substack
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About Stephan Livera Podcast
In-depth Bitcoin interviews and education. Stephan Livera talks with the builders, developers, founders and thinkers shaping Bitcoin, covering self-custody, Lightning, payments, mining, markets and where Bitcoin goes next. Clear, practical conversations to help you understand Bitcoin and use it well.
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