Redefining Energy

• 204. Live from COP30 – WTFFF and Other Tales from the Amazon

  Laurent sits down with Bruce Douglas, CEO of the Global Renewable Alliance, for a live conversation from COP30 in Belém, Brazil.They explore how COP30 is structured, the role of the Global Renewable Alliance, and the dynamics among participants. The 800-pound gorilla in the room—the United States—hasn’t derailed the negotiations, but one might ask: does it really matter? The real action, Bruce explains, takes place in the Blue Zone and the Green Zone, rather than in the endless debates over whether the final text will call to “phase out,” “phase down,” or “phase up” fossil fuels.With investments in clean technologies now triple those in fossil fuels, the global momentum toward renewables seems unstoppable.The COP text, increasingly, feels symbolic—if not irrelevant. Together, Laurent and Bruce celebrate the ongoing success of bottom-up implementation and the steady deployment of proven technologies, rather than top-down grand initiatives.They also touch on a new forestry initiative, TFFF—dubbed “WTF-FF” by Laurent—which, they suspect, may fade away like tears in the rain. Packed with anecdotes about the Amazon rainforest, chaotic logistics, Saudi Arabia’s surprising investments in boxing, and other quirky insights, this episode strikes an optimistic tone.Whatever COP30’s final declaration may say, one thing is clear: renewables have already won.

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• 203. Peak Solar - nov25

  Solar energy has experienced explosive growth over the past five years — doubling in capacity outside of China and quadrupling within China. But with this rapid expansion come new concerns: Are we scaling too quickly? And is the proliferation of solar now starting to strain power grids, creating more problems than solutions?Enter the concept of the “3 Cs” — Congestion, Curtailment, and Cannibalization — a term coined by Richard Sverisson at Montel. It captures the growing pains of an energy system being transformed at unprecedented speed.To unpack this, Laurent and Gerard welcome one of the world’s leading voices in solar energy: Sam Wilkinson, Head of Renewables at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Sam leads a team of 20 global experts focused on analysing and forecasting trends across renewable energy markets, policy, and infrastructure. Their insights, developed in close collaboration with industry stakeholders, are critical for understanding where the solar market is heading.Notably, Sam and his team are forecasting a 100GW decline in new solar capacity in 2026 compared to 2025 — introducing the idea of "Peak Solar."In this conversation, we explore what “peak solar” really means: its causes, how it might unfold, and the ripple effects on the global supply chain. But it’s not all bad news. Market consolidation, geographic diversification, and ongoing innovation in solar technology are helping the industry navigate challenges. As costs continue to fall and accessibility improves, solar remains a cornerstone of the global energy transition.Expect a technical yet insightful discussion on the current headwinds — and future opportunities — in the solar energy sector.

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• 202. The US Power Industry Mismatch: Large Load Growth vs. Investment Capital - Nov25

  Laurent and Gerard have an explosive conversation with Bryan Long, Executive Director in JPMorgan’s Commodities Group.They explore why U.S. energy market signals are failing to support new capacity investments, despite soaring demand (especially from datacenters).  Key issues include misaligned pricing, liquidity constraints, and hedging challenges, all of which deter long-term private capital.Key Takeaways: Current price signals don’t support investment in new generation, even as large load growth (e.g., datacenters) is accelerating. Market structures must evolve to better reflect long-term price signals and attract private capital. Supply-side issues: New natural gas peakers and battery storage (BESS) face fragmented development, rising CAPEX, procurement delays, and tariff risks. Industry response: Major consolidation in the IPP space—private equity-backed assets are being acquired by integrated players seeking scale for hyperscaler deals.Possible solutions may include Repricing of forward curves, Government-backed long-term contracts, Regulatory reforms, Technological advancements Bottom line: Something must shift—be it policy, pricing, or tech—to align investment incentives with future demand growth. The next several years should be great for traders in the middle of the action.Conclusion: Between the Large Load Growth and the Investment Capital, who will blink first?   ------------  Bryan Long is an Executive Director in JPMorgan’s Commodities Group, focused on wholesale power & renewable energy transactions. With 20yrs+ experience across various U.S. Power trading, origination and management roles, he has deep understandings of electricity market structures.    

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• 201. Battery Boom or Policy Bust? The Big EV Divergence - Oct25

  We are in the middle of a battery boom, for EVs and even more for BESS. What's really happening in the electric vehicle (EV) market? Is China dominating the field, or are serious alternatives emerging? What roles are Europe, the U.S., and other global regions playing? Which chemistries are winning out, and how are prices trending?  These are the questions we ask ourselves every day — and today, Gerard and Laurent are thrilled to have someone who can help us answer them. Laurent and Gerard are joined by the brilliant Iola Hughes, Head of Research at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, following its acquisition of Rho Motion.  Iola leads research across the battery demand spectrum — from EVs to stationary storage — managing forecasts, tracking battery chemistries, and analyzing the impact of everything from regulation to OEM strategies and technology roadmaps.   According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and Rho Motion, as of 2025:The Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) sector is growing at 40% year-over-yearThe EV market is expanding by 25% year-over-year But perhaps the most surprising trend is that forecasts made just 18 months ago are being exceeded — in nearly every region except the United States. There, the current administration appears to be kneecapped the industry by rolling back both incentives (like tax credits) and regulations (such as CAFE and emissions standards). Nissan in the US is moving back from EVs to hybrids while GM passes billions of impairments.  On the industrial side, it’s increasingly a case of China versus the world. China now has the capacity to manufacture a staggering 50 million vehicles per year, far outpacing domestic demand and sparking concerns about overcapacity.  In summary: we are witnessing a growing divide in the global battery and EV space. China is clearly in the lead. Europe and others are racing to catch up. And the U.S.? It’s at risk of falling further behind — not for lack of potential, but because of political and policy choices.https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/  https://www.linkedin.com/in/iolahughes/  https://x.com/RhoMoIola  Stunning visuals from FT on the development of batteries (most of the sources came from Benchmark)  https://ig.ft.com/mega-batteries

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• 200. “200 slides, Energy, AI, and the End of ESG” with Nat Bullard - Oct25

  For our 200th episode, we had the pleasure and privilege of speaking with Nat Bullard, one of the sharpest minds in the energy world. A leading analyst in climate and energy, Nat is known for his clear insights on clean energy, decarbonization, and the global energy transition. Formerly Chief Content Officer at BloombergNEF, he is now also a co-founder of the AI company Halcyon.  Nat is perhaps best known for his annual 200-slide deck, a rich compilation of global data and charts that paints a clear, fact-based picture of where the energy sector is heading.  Our conversation spans major shifts shaping the future: the electrification of the Global South, the rise of AI and datacenters, the unravelling of ESG, and the evolving geopolitics of energy through the lens of "Electrostates vs. Petrostates"—and how investment flows are responding.  We also explore the dominant narratives in the energy space, many of which, we agree, are self-serving and unhelpful.  Ultimately, the energy transition is being held back less by technology and more by entrenched interests and a lack of curiosity. But the world is changing fast—and there is reason for hope.   We thank AFRY for supporting the show.  Reference for reports quoted during the showThe Electrotech Revolution – Ember and Kingsmill Bond   https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-electrotech-revolution/  Afry: Market and regulatory overview of the North Atlantic Transmission One -Link project https://afry.com/en/exploring-nato-l-project-and-transatlantic-power-exchange-decarbonised-future   "AFRY provides engineering, design, digital and advisory services to accelerate the transition towards a sustainable society. At AFRY, we are 19,000 devoted experts in industry, energy and infrastructure sectors, creating impact for generations to come. Best example of AFRY expertise is the report they just released on the Regulatory and Revenue Models for the North Atlantic Transmission One – Link."   

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