Moving Markets

Global market performance was mixed last week, with Japanese equities emerging as the standout winner, driven by strong gains in technology and semiconductor stocks. Meanwhile, oil prices surged around 6% amid renewed geopolitical tensions, and longer-term government bond yields moved higher despite softer-than-expected signals from US inflation and consumer data. In this episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his latest insights on the recent weakness in both the US dollar and the Swiss franc. He also explains why he remains constructive on precious metals and discusses the key market trends investors should be watching in the weeks ahead.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(01:16) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(07:03) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research

(09:53) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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With Korean semiconductor stocks down nearly 50% from their June peak, has the AI correction finally run its course? Where could the next leg of the AI rally come from, and how are China’s cheaper AI models — including DeepSeek’s rumoured new release — reshaping the competitive landscape?

Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, on these latest developments in AI, as well as the broader market themes driving China and global markets — including the rotation back into value names, China’s growth outlook ahead of the fifth plenum, the new Renminbi government bond futures listing in Hong Kong, and the sharp rebound in gold and silver.

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:29) - Has the AI stock correction bottomed out?

(03:03) - Sectors to watch in the next leg of the AI rally

(05:57) - China’s competitive AI models

(09:52) - The China internet/hyperscaler rally — can it continue?

(12:00) - China’s economic outlook and policy direction for H2

(16:37) - AI vs non-AI: what drives the next rotation?

(19:28) - Thoughts on the listing of Chinese government bond futures in Hong Kong

(21:25) - Gold and silver: has the recovery arrived?

US equities continued their upward climb this week, supported by a series of encouraging inflation releases, while European stocks have taken a breather after hitting record highs earlier in the week. In fixed income markets, government bond yields moved lower as investors scaled back expectations for rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Joining us today is Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, who shares his latest outlook on the energy market and explains why he continues to expect oil prices to trend lower in the months ahead.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:24) - Energy market update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(11:52) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The latest US inflation data came in in line with expectations and reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in September. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both finished the day in positive territory yesterday, with technology stocks leading the gains. Earlier in Europe, equities eased as investors balanced earnings releases with ongoing geopolitical developments. Oil markets are weighing up the escalating tensions in the Middle East against softer global demand expectations from both OPEC and the IEA. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins the show today to share his thoughts on gold, the US dollar and the Swiss franc.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(07:23) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva

(11:44) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets struggled for direction yesterday, with investors balancing geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices and a busy corporate news flow. US equities fell for a second straight session as technology shares came under pressure, while European stocks consolidated near record highs and Asian markets traded mixed overnight. With markets searching for direction, the spotlight now shifts to today's US inflation report, a release that could prove pivotal for interest-rate expectations and broader investor sentiment. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins us to discuss what the inflation figures mean for bond investors, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, provides an update on the earnings season.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(06:37) - Fixed Income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(09:56) - Q2 earnings season / Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(13:16) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.