Moving Markets

US and European equities rebounded yesterday as the absence of another energy spike supported sentiment. Strong US job gains and a firm ISM services reading eased growth concerns, reduced expectations for a July rate cut, and lifted major indices, with technology leading. The US dollar held firm, investors are positioned for a weaker euro, and Swiss franc strength triggered a second round of SNB verbal intervention. Bitcoin surged, China set a cautious growth target, and Asian markets – especially South Korea – rebounded sharply after steep losses. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides a timely update on the oil and gas markets following the near‑halt in activity through the Strait of Hormuz.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(07:12) - Oil and gas update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(12:14) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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US and European stock markets fell further yesterday although some relief was provided by Trump’s promise to accompany vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.  Both oil and the US dollar strengthened, but gold and silver fell, and overnight Asia’s stock markets suffered a bruising session with the Kospi falling more in one day than it has since 2001. Joining the show today are our research team heads of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, and Fixed Income, Dario Messi, to provide some context on the recent moves in global equity markets and US Treasuries, as well as some suggestions on how to position portfolios in the current situation.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:08) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(09:31) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(13:11) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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While European markets tumbled amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, US equities held up surprisingly well. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 managed to post modest gains, supported largely by strength in the technology sector. This morning, however, oil prices have climbed further as tensions continue to rise, and Asian markets are deep in negative territory. Today, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who puts the latest moves in precious metals into perspective.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:33) - The impact of geopolitics on precious metals: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(11:10) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated over the weekend, with coordinated strikes by the US and Israel targeting Iranian facilities and leadership. In response, Iran has launched retaliatory strikes across the Gulf region. The surge in hostilities has placed global markets under heightened scrutiny. Equity indices are trading lower, while safe-haven assets - including the Swiss franc and gold - are seeing increased demand. Oil prices have spiked overnight, driven by fears of potential supply disruptions in one of the world’s most critical energy regions. In this episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, provides timely analysis on the evolving geopolitical landscape and its implications for global investors. He is joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who outlines key technical support levels for equity markets and shares his outlook for oil and precious metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(06:26) - Middle East situation: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research

(10:18) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(12:13) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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The recent US Supreme Court decision on tariffs has shifted the landscape for investors, replacing a patchwork of country-specific measures with a temporary universal tariff. What does this mean for markets overall, different countries and sectors, the US dollar and fixed income?
In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets – The View Beyond podcast, Helen Freer is joined by Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, to discuss the implications of the Supreme Court’s ruling against the tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act last year. The conversation covers the short-term reduction in uncertainty, the winners and losers among countries and sectors, the impact on corporate earnings, and the unresolved question of tariff refunds. Christian Gattiker also shares insights on the muted reaction of the US dollar, the outlook for fixed income, and the key takeaways for investors as US trade policy enters a new phase.

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:42) - What the decision means for investors in the short term

(01:28) - The temporary universal tariff

(02:06) - Winners and losers by country and sector

(03:32) - Ongoing uncertainty and the medium-term outlook

(04:12) - Will there be an impact on corporate earnings?

(04:47) - The unresolved issue of tariff refunds

(05:31) - The US dollar reaction and outlook

(06:22) - Fixed income perspective: uncertainty, fiscal effects, and inflation

(07:32) - Key takeaways

(07:59) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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