Moving Markets

The recent US and Israel strike on Iran has introduced a new layer of uncertainty to global markets, with investors closely monitoring the implications for oil & gas, and portfolios overall. How should investors interpret these developments and position themselves amid heightened geopolitical risk?
In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, and Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory, to discuss the market impact of the Middle East escalation. The conversation covers the immediate effects on oil and gas prices, the scenarios investors should consider, and how clients are responding to volatility across asset classes. The discussion also explores the role of gold, the importance of strategic asset allocation, and why infrastructure and alternatives are gaining traction as diversifiers in uncertain times.

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:48) - Assessing the current situation in the Middle East

(01:31) - Client reactions and portfolio positioning

(02:31) - Market responses: commodities and oil price dynamics

(03:31) - Key scenarios for oil and gas markets

(05:17) - The impact of shipping and insurance costs

(05:56) - Oil price outlook and investor implications

(07:01) - Broader market effects: equities and fixed income

(08:16) - Gold’s performance as a diversifier

(11:24) - Scenario analysis: prolonged conflict and market consequences

(12:39) - Harnessing volatility and portfolio strategies

(13:27) - Investment topics for the long-term

(15:25) - The enduring importance of strategic asset allocation

(16:32) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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Global markets saw another volatile session as escalating Middle East tensions drove oil prices sharply higher and dampened risk appetite. Equities fell across the US and Europe, and US bond yields moved higher as investors reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. In tech, potential new US restrictions on AI chip exports weighed on sentiment, though software stocks bucked the trend with a notable rebound. Asian markets were mixed overnight. Joining our show today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, for the latest on currencies and metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(07:02) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva

(11:10) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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US and European equities rebounded yesterday as the absence of another energy spike supported sentiment. Strong US job gains and a firm ISM services reading eased growth concerns, reduced expectations for a July rate cut, and lifted major indices, with technology leading. The US dollar held firm, investors are positioned for a weaker euro, and Swiss franc strength triggered a second round of SNB verbal intervention. Bitcoin surged, China set a cautious growth target, and Asian markets – especially South Korea – rebounded sharply after steep losses. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides a timely update on the oil and gas markets following the near‑halt in activity through the Strait of Hormuz.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(07:12) - Oil and gas update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(12:14) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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US and European stock markets fell further yesterday although some relief was provided by Trump’s promise to accompany vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.  Both oil and the US dollar strengthened, but gold and silver fell, and overnight Asia’s stock markets suffered a bruising session with the Kospi falling more in one day than it has since 2001. Joining the show today are our research team heads of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, and Fixed Income, Dario Messi, to provide some context on the recent moves in global equity markets and US Treasuries, as well as some suggestions on how to position portfolios in the current situation.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:08) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(09:31) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(13:11) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

While European markets tumbled amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, US equities held up surprisingly well. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 managed to post modest gains, supported largely by strength in the technology sector. This morning, however, oil prices have climbed further as tensions continue to rise, and Asian markets are deep in negative territory. Today, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who puts the latest moves in precious metals into perspective.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:33) - The impact of geopolitics on precious metals: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(11:10) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.