Moving Markets

Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi captured a historic supermajority for her Liberal Democratic Party in yesterday’s election, meaning the LDP holds two-thirds or more seats in the Lower House, and giving her the scope to pursue her fiscal agenda. The Nikkei 225 rallied 5.5% today, crossing the 57,000 threshold for the first time. Other Asian markets rallied this morning following the recovery in the US indices on Friday. Nevertheless, last week marked a rotation out of Big Tech and into smaller companies and dividend growth stocks. Gold is back up above USD 5,000 after whipsawing last week. Louis Chua, Equity Research Asia, joins the podcast today to talk about the likely impact of the Takaichi victory on Japan’s financial markets, and Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his analysis of the moves in the IT sector and what the charts suggest might lie ahead.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(01:14) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:47) - Japan elections: Louis Chua, Equity Research Asia

(11:56) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(14:20) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the likely next chair of the Federal Reserve has prompted immediate market reactions and renewed debate around the future direction of US monetary policy. What should investors expect as the Fed faces new leadership?
In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by David Kohl, Chief Economist, to discuss the implications of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve. They examine market reactions, the prospects for rate cuts, the outlook for the US dollar, and the potential impact on asset classes including treasuries, fixed income, and equities. The conversation also covers the Fed’s balance sheet strategy, the risk of increased volatility, and what a shift away from ample liquidity could mean for investors. Finally, they address the recent volatility in precious metals and whether the nomination will bring stability to gold and silver markets.

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:01) - Was Warsh's nomination a surprise?

(01:39) - Hawkish or dovish: What does Warsh’s stance mean for the Fed?

(03:20) - Expected rate trajectory and implications for monetary policy

(05:19) - Data dependence and the Fed’s decision-making process

(06:22) - Do we expect the US dollar to weaken further as a result?

(09:59) - Will Warsh's nomination affect the Fed’s balance sheet?

(12:07) - No further quantitative easing underr Kevin Warsh?

(13:33) - What is the potential impact on financial markets?

(15:11) - The new outlook for fixed income investors

(16:04) - US equities and the case for diversification

(17:38) - Precious metals volatility: Will the rollercoaster end?

(19:27) - Closing remarks

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank both kept rates unchanged yesterday, signalling a cautious but data‑dependent stance even as inflation trends diverge on either side of the Channel. European equities finished broadly lower on the back of a busy earnings day, while in the US a third straight sell‑off pushed the S&P 500 into negative territory for the year. Crypto joined the risk‑off trend, while silver remained the standout story in commodities after back‑to‑back plunges and an overnight rebound that left volatility high. In corporate news, Rio Tinto and Glencore scrapped their merger discussions. Today we are joined by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, for an update on Asian tech stocks, and by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, for the latest on metals and currencies.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(08:30) - Asia equity update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kon

(15:49) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva g

(20:27) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Earnings and Big Tech remain in focus, with Alphabet beating Wall Street’s expectations but causing some investors to take flight in the wake of projected capex spending. The rotation out of tech stocks continued on Wednesday - the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.5%. China’s Hong Kong-listed technology stocks slid overnight with the Hang Seng Tech Index now 20% below its October peak. The threat of VAT increases being imposed on internet platforms exacerbated the move. The ECB and the Bank of England are both expected to keep rates on hold today. With investors hypnotised by swings in gold and silver prices this year, it’s easy to lose sight of oil and natural gas markets.  In light of the current geopolitical tensions impacting these markets, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research joins the podcast to put things in perspective.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(05:58) - Oil and Gas: Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research

(12:01) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The rotation out of technology stocks continued, with software shares selling off on AI‑disruption concerns, while cyclical stocks outperformed. WalMart reached a USD 1 trillion market‑cap milestone. German long‑dated yields hit their highest level since 2011 as heavy issuance lifted supply. Precious metals remain volatile but rebounded sharply, while Brent oil rises on Middle East tensions. In earnings, Novo Nordisk expects sales to fall this year due to pricing pressure. Afonso Borges from Fixed Income Research outlines developments in the US fixed income market and our Overweight stance on duration. Nenad Dinic from Equity Strategy provides an update on the earnings season and the outperformance of emerging‑market equities this year.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(07:08) - Update on US Federal Reserve: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research

(11:48) - Earnings season and EM update: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research

(18:34) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.