Moving Markets

Global markets endured another turbulent session as escalating tensions in the Middle East, including aggressive rhetoric from both Iran and the United States, drove oil prices higher and fuelled risk aversion. European and US equities extended their declines, with energy stocks bucking the trend. Strong US macro data contrasted with the geopolitical gloom, but new US trade investigations under Section 301 added to uncertainty. Private credit concerns also intensified, weighing heavily on major alternative asset managers. Asian markets traded lower overnight, gold slipped despite its safe‑haven appeal, and investors now turn their attention to a packed economic data agenda. Joining our show today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, for the latest on currencies and metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(06:28) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva

(10:41) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Tuesday’s rally in European stocks proved short‑lived as surging oil prices and renewed concerns over potential rate hikes unsettled investors. In contrast, US markets were more composed yesterday, with the tech‑heavy Nasdaq even managing to post a modest gain. Asian markets are trading lower today after Brent crude climbed above USD 100 a barrel amid fresh geopolitical escalations. In today’s episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his insights on aluminium and the potential disruption shaping the outlook for the market.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:50) - Aluminium update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(10:32) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets reacted to volatile geopolitics as hopes of a swift resolution in the Iran crisis clashed with heightened military tensions. Strong gains in European equities and a sharp drop in oil prices highlighted a session defined by fragile optimism. With central banks watching inflation and safe havens like gold and the Swiss franc holding firm, uncertainty remains. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research at Julius Baer, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Julius Baer’s Equity Strategy Research team, discuss how recent geopolitical developments are shaping global bond and equity markets and how investors can navigate markets amid the fog of war.

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(06:06) - Fixed income market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research

(10:25) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(15:36) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

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Brent oil saw historic intraday swings yesterday, surging on supply fears before dropping sharply as the G7 discussed releasing reserves and the US president signalled the war could soon end. This shift helped European markets rebound from their lows and lifted US equities as safe‑haven flows unwound. Asian markets followed Wall Street higher, supported by strong corporate results and robust Chinese export data. Japan’s Q4 GDP beat expectations, although household spending weakened. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, shares his timely view on the oil price spike and what likely comes next.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:27) - Latest developments in oil: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(10:46) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

This morning, Iran named Mojtaba Khamanei, the man President Trump said would be unacceptable in the post, as its new leader. The immediate market reaction was a spike in the price of Brent crude oil to nearly USD120 per barrel, and a pronounced selloff in Asian stock markets. These moves have since reversed somewhat after the Financial Times wrote that G7 leaders will have talks with the International Energy Agency today regarding a possible release of energy reserves. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong explains why positioning is driving Asian equity markets more than fundamentals right now, and looks beyond the fog of war to identify attractive Asian equity sectors. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis focuses on what the charts reveal when it comes to the price of oil and the trajectory of US equity markets.

(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(01:18) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:17) - Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong

(11:27) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(15:13) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.