Moving Markets

Equity markets are trading higher amid renewed optimism that the ceasefire will hold, reinforced by Israel’s signal that it is ready to enter direct negotiations with Lebanon. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to rebound following Wednesday’s sharp losses. Investors’ focus now turns to today’s US CPI data for March. In this episode, we are joined by Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, who shares his perspective on what lies ahead for the US dollar.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:45) - FX & metals update: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions

(10:00) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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The last 24 hours were a game of two halves for equity markets – Europe and the US rallied as they celebrated the Middle East ceasefire and crude oil ended Wednesday 16% lower. But then the cracks in the terms of the ceasefire appeared – Israel attacked Lebanon, which Iran said breached the agreement, and Iran claimed that it has the right to enrich uranium, which the US says it does not. And so, oil rose again and Asian equity markets fell. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, joins the podcast today to unravel the reaction of commodity markets to the ongoing situation. He explains how the ceasefire fits into a pattern in which extreme price spikes trigger both behavioural and political responses, and that markets respond in a monochrome fashion. Tune in to find out more about the possible shades of grey that need consideration.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(05:38) - Reaction of commodities to ceasefire: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research

(10:08) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil fell the most in nearly six years, while stocks surged after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire just hours before a Trump-imposed deadline, giving markets a brief respite from Middle East–driven turbulence. Asian equity markets jumped, Treasuries rallied, the US dollar weakened, and precious metals advanced. Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Strategist, discusses the implications for bond markets, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, joins the show to outline what to expect from the upcoming earnings season.

(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

(06:02) - Bond market update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research

(09:55) - Earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research

(13:24) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity gains on Monday were modest and fragile. Risk appetite is fading as investors focus on President Trump’s deadline, rising oil prices, and Middle East tensions. Strong US payrolls on Friday contrast with weaker services employment and rising input costs on Monday, leaving uncertainty over whether inflation pressures will persist. Technology remains a key theme: strong AI demand supported Samsung and Broadcom, while potential IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI point to rising competition for a limited pool of capital. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, comments on developments in energy markets ahead of President Trump’s deadline.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:29) - Energy: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research

(10:01) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Despite a significant selloff following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global emerging market equities have demonstrated a surprising degree of resilience. What explains this contained drawdown, and how should investors differentiate across regions even as volatility persists?

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:11) - Current resilience of emerging markets

(01:59) - Earnings revisions and relative performance

(03:18) - Market sensitivity and the nature of the drawdown

(04:23) - Energy costs and financial conditions

(06:16) - Monetary policy impact and US dollar outlook

(07:00) - AI as a growth driver in emerging markets

(07:30) - Outlook for EM equities

(09:14) - Closing remarks and legal information

In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by Nenad Dinic, Emerging Market Strategist at Julius Baer, to examine the recent performance of emerging market equities in the wake of geopolitical shocks. They discuss why the fundamental story for the asset class remains robust, the importance of distinguishing between net energy importers and exporters, and how factors such as a weakening US dollar and the AI-driven CapEx cycle are shaping the outlook. The conversation also addresses the implications of regional dispersion, the role of earnings revisions, and why patient investors may find compelling opportunities amid ongoing uncertainty.