Moving Markets

Oil prices and global bond yields continued their ascent on Monday and the US 10-year treasury yield has hit the 5.02% this morning - a level not seen since 2007. Markets are now pricing in a 92% probability of a rate hike at tomorrow's FOMC meeting. And with expectations amongst traders growing that this will just be the first hike in a cycle, Kevin Warsh's statement after the meeting will be even more closely scrutinised than normal. With AI headlines a key driver of global equity market in the last 24 hours, tune in to today's podcast to hear Next Generation research analyst Enrico Chinello's view on the unfolding situation and what it means for investors.

(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(06:14) - AI - pacing the frontier?: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation

(13:06) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

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Markets are starting a pivotal week on the back foot, as AI-related stocks retreat following safety concerns raised by the chief executives of Anthropic and OpenAI. Investor sentiment has been further dampened by reports that OpenAI is not expected to go public this year. Meanwhile, oil prices are moving higher as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. Against this backdrop, attention is turning to a busy week for monetary policy, with markets bracing for interest rate hikes from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. In today’s episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his views on how much further oil prices could rise and where 10-year US Treasury yields may ultimately peak.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(01:02) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(06:13) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis

(08:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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As we head towards the final quarter of 2026, investors face a shifting landscape where AI remains the key growth engine but market leadership is broadening beyond US technology. With volatility persisting and geopolitical risks still in focus, where might the best opportunities lie for investors positioning their portfolios for the year end?
In this episode, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Julius Baer’s Head of Research, Christian Gattiker, and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, to discuss their outlook for the markets for the year end. The conversation covers the evolving AI investment cycle and the broadening of equity market leadership, as well as the implications of US politics, Fed uncertainty, and ongoing Middle East tensions. They examine equity opportunities across regions and sectors globally, as well as their preferred positioning in fixed income. The conversation also covers the outlook for the US dollar, oil, and gold. And finally, there’s also a suggestion for investors about what not to do as they head towards 2027.

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:44) - Setting the big picture for 2026 and beyond

(02:13) - US market focus and the AI investment cycle

(03:07) - China’s economic outlook and policy stance

(04:18) - Japan: Rate hike expectations and yen dynamics

(05:27) - Central banks, Middle East tensions, and inflation impact

(07:28) - Portfolio positioning for year-end

(08:26) - Broadening equity market leadership

(10:21) - Fixed income opportunities and duration

(11:58) - Currencies, gold, and oil outlook

(13:49) - What investors should avoid now

(14:22) - Key takeaways from Asia and global perspective

(15:33) - Closing remarks

(16:20) - Legal information

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US and European bond yields rose sharply as investors priced in higher inflation amid this week's rise in oil prices. The 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5%, but the increase in bond yields was truly global, weighing on global equities and precious metals. Despite the broader risk-off tone, AI-related investment remained a constructive theme, supported by Oracle’s results and Microsoft's data centre expansion plans. David Kohl, Chief Economist, discusses the ECB’s hawkish message and key considerations ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.

(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

(00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

(06:46) - ECB and US inflation data: David Kohl, Chief Economist

(15:03) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

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Markets remain under pressure as oil prices continue to climb, with Brent crude now trading above the psychologically significant USD 100 per barrel mark. Attention is firmly focused on today’s European Central Bank rate decision, where another hike is widely expected, as well as key US inflation data due later today and tomorrow. Against this backdrop, global government bond yields have risen to levels not seen in years. In today’s episode, we welcome Afonso Borges from our Fixed Income Research team. He shares his perspective on the US Treasury’s somewhat underwhelming buyback announcement and explains why he believes many of the concerns surrounding France’s fiscal outlook are already reflected in current market pricing.

(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

(00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

(05:59) - US and European Government bond markets: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research

(09:37) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.