Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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Jack & Max break down the bull market in silver and gold, how they are expressing their bullish views via royalty companies, and debate whether we are approaching peak prices. They also discuss surging natural gas prices, what Intel’s disappointing earnings mean for the AI bull market, and the strong performance from small caps so far in 2026.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:33 Silver Market Dynamics and Industrial Demand

07:13 Historical Context and Market Speculation

13:30 Investment Strategies in Precious Metals

18:22 Gold Mining Companies and Market Trends

32:24 Intel and the Semiconductor Market

34:48 Intel's Struggles in Semiconductor Production

35:42 Comparing Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor

36:22 AI and Semiconductor Market Trends

43:30 Natural Gas and Commodities Market

46:12 Small Cap Stocks and Market Performance

58:17 Natural Gas Infrastructure and Investment

01:02:08 Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Speculations

01:07:26 Final Thoughts and Market Predictions

In this episode, Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors reveals why he has liquidated 100% of his US asset positions to bet on the "Rest of the World". He breaks down the looming financing headwinds created by massive AI capital expenditures and political promises, explaining how this borrowing spree creates a near-term drag on US equity and corporate bond prices. Constan argues that the era of US exceptionalism is fading, making Japanese and European assets far more attractive for risk premia and diversification now that their yields have normalized. He also predicts that while a recession isn't imminent, economic growth will likely miss lofty expectations, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to cut rates more aggressively than the market has priced in. Finally, Constan shares his insights on why he remains long gold as a portfolio hedge and how investors should reposition for a period where global assets are set to outperform the U.S. Recorded January 20, 2026.

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Andy’s gold piece, “Glittery”: https://dampedspring.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Glittery.pdf

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Barry Naughton, a renowned professor and chair of Chinese International Affairs at UC San Diego, provides a deep dive into the current crises and triumphs of the Chinese economy. In this interview, Naughton analyzes why China is grappling with its most difficult challenges in decades, from a persistent housing bust to entrenched deflationary pressures. He offers a critical look at the shift from market liberalization to aggressive state-driven industrial policy, including the massive "government guidance funds" used to target a new technological revolution. The conversation explores the geopolitical showdown between the U.S. and China over critical mineral supply chains and the race for AI dominance. Naughton also addresses the demographic "graying" of China and the shifting household psychology that is transforming the nation’s growth potential. This is an essential listen for anyone looking to understand the "Industrial Policy 3.0" era and its implications for global trade and investment. Recorded on January 12, 2026.

Barry Naughton’s books:“The Rise of China's Industrial Policy, 1978 to 2020”: https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Chinas-Industrial-Policy-1978/dp/6078066595

“The Chinese Economy: Transitions And Growth”: https://www.amazon.com/Chinese-Economy-Transitions-Growth-Press/dp/0262640643

More info:https://gps.ucsd.edu/faculty-directory/barry-naughton.html

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This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/mm/?via=monetarymatters

President Trump has shaken the financial markets by proposing a strict 10% interest rate cap on credit cards, a move that sent stocks like Visa and MasterCard tumbling. In this episode, Jack and Max break down whether this policy is a genuine legislative goal or a political stunt designed to win the midterms by addressing the affordability crisis. They explore how banks might retaliate—potentially by releasing a "teaser" card with limited access—and which subprime lenders and pawn shops could actually boom if traditional credit dries up. The duo also analyzes the surprising bipartisan roots of this idea, tracing it back to proposals from Bernie Sanders and AOC. They discuss if the current dip in payment stocks represents a buying opportunity for contrarian investors. They also explore other executive interventions from the President in defense, mortgages, and the Federal Reserve. Recorded the evening of January 13, 2026.

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Pieces Discussed:Joseph Wang’s “Sleeping Giants”: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/assets/documents/NPLH_AER%20(2).pdf

Buyback Capital’s “[Updates #34] The GSE's, Bill Pulte, and Implications”: https://buybackcapital.substack.com/p/updates-34-the-gses-bill-pulte-and?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=4jms2a&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

“No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870  2012”: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/assets/documents/NPLH_AER%20(2).pdf

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This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners

Steven Novakovic, Managing Director of Educational Programs at CAIA, discusses the monumental shift from strategic asset allocation to the Total Portfolio Approach (TPA), a change recently highlighted by major moves at CalPERS. The conversation explores the evolving landscape of private markets, specifically how secondary markets are providing crucial liquidity and entry points for investors dealing with slowed distributions and the "denominator effect". Novakovic also provides a candid look at the friction between hedge fund fees and beta-heavy returns, arguing that sophisticated limited partners will not pay for beta. As alternative investments become more accessible to retail wealth, he emphasizes the critical need for education regarding evergreen funds and the unique risks of private market liquidity. Finally, the episode looks forward to 2026 educational initiatives at CAIA.Follow Steve Novakovic on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/steven-novakovic-caia/

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction to Governance Changes in Pension Plans

00:45 Strategic Asset Allocation vs. Total Portfolio Approach

03:24 Early Adopters and Global Trends in TPA

05:06 Benchmarking and Decision-Making Shifts

09:58 CalPERS Case Study: Governance and Tactical Opportunities

17:32 Impact on Managers and Investment Strategies

22:08 Current Market Trends and Private Credit

25:54 Private Equity Distributions and Secondary Markets

35:32 Reinvesting Portfolio Proceeds

36:39 Understanding Secondary Market Buyers

37:09 Benefits of Secondary Allocations

39:14 Challenges and Strategies in Secondary Markets

45:03 Hedge Funds vs. Equity Markets

46:35 Evaluating Hedge Fund Performance

49:02 Active Management and Fee Structures

56:53 Educating Investors on Alternatives

01:03:00 CAIA's Educational Resources

01:05:44 Upcoming CAIA Programs