The Lopsided Expansion | Aahan Menon on Why Long-Term Forecasts Don’t Make Money, And The Growing Divergence Between AI CapEx And Labor Market
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Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Macro and a trusted "quant's quant" for sophisticated hedge funds, joins Jack Farley to explain why his models are signaling a meaningful shift down in risk. While previously striking a bullish tone, Aahan reveals why his institutional strategies have moved from "max bullish" to neutral on equities and commodities.
Aahan breaks down a concerning divergence in the economy: while GDP and spending are being propped up by a surge in AI CapEx and top-heavy consumption, the underlying labor market is weakening. He explains the "circularity" problem of AI investment—eventually, CapEx must turn into consumption, which requires wage growth that is currently stalling.
Later in the conversation, Aahan challenges core macro beliefs, presenting data on why long-term economic forecasting and tracking "rates of change" generate negligible or negative alpha. He also details his current positioning, including being short homebuilders, long French bonds against Japanese JGBs, and his "Crisis Protection" portfolio. Recorded on November 25, 2025.
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Breaking Down Michael Burry’s Big Nvidia Short Thesis and Open AI’s Massive Loss Projections | Jack & Max
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Jack Farley & Max Wiethe breakdown Michael Burry’s big Nvidia short thesis and the recent projections from HSBC that Open AI will lose nearly half a trillion dollars between now and 2030. They also discuss the recent repricing of Fed rate cuts in December and debate which companies are the biggest losers if AI turns out to be a bubble.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:16 The Biggest Event in Macro
00:55 Breaking Down Michael Burry's Short Thesis for Nvidia
04:47 Semiconductors Are Historically Cyclical
07:08 Is Nvidia a Good Short?
08:25 Criticism of Burry's Analysis
16:38 Fiscal.ai
18:17 Open AI's Massive Loss Projections
24:26 AI Coding Agent Revenues
26:25 Can Nvidia Escape Unscathed?
29:54 Michael Burry's Substack Success
30:54 AI Spending's Impact on GDP
31:56 December Fed Meeting
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As Good As It Gets? | Meb Faber on U.S. Stock Valuations, Trend Following, and Endowment Allocations To Private Markets
This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN:
https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners
In this episode of Monetary Matters, Jack welcomes Meb Faber, founder of Cambria Funds, to discuss the extreme valuations in the US stock market and where investors can still find value. Meb breaks down historical market cycles, comparing the current AI boom to the railroad bubbles of the past, and explains why "expensive uptrends" can persist longer than logic dictates.
The conversation shifts to the institutional world, where Meb challenges the status quo of major endowments like Harvard and CalPERS, arguing that complex private equity strategies can often be beaten by simple, liquid ETFs. Finally, Meb reveals a tax code loophole (Section 351) that allows investors to swap concentrated stock positions for diversified ETFs on a tax-deferred basis. Recorded on November 20, 2025.
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Pieces Discussed:
“Exceptional Expectations: U.S. vs. Non-U.S. Equities”: https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/White-Papers/Exceptional-Expectations-US-vs-Non-US-Equities
“LEARNING TO LOVE INVESTMENT BUBBLES: WHAT IF SIR ISAAC NEWTON HAD BEEN A
TRENDFOLLOWER?”: https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id1923387.pdf
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Venture Capital’s Collision with Public Markets, the Dry Powder Bubble, and VC Metrics that Lie | James Wang of Creative Ventures
This Other People’s Money episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners
James Wang, General Partner at Creative Ventures and author of “What You Need to Know About AI” joins Other People’s Money to discuss the most pressing issues facing venture capital right now including: VC’s collision with public markets, the “RIAifaction” of VC firms, and the reality that there is still too much dry powder propping up venture valuations. Wang also discusses the difficulty of judging VC funds off of typical metrics like MOIC and TVPI, especially when the fund is still in the middle of its life cycle. Wang closes the podcast with his views on AI as expressed in his new book and the reasons why he believes many are being distracted by first-order effects.
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Timestamps
00:00 Intro
01:22 The Collision of Public and Private Markets
04:13 Venture Capital is Following the Same Path as Other Asset Classes
05:52 Venture's Shifting Role in Portfolios
13:36 Venture Capital Emerging Managers
18:39 Corporate Venture Capital
20:58 The Most Active Venture LPs
22:45 Sovereign Wealth Funds and Strategic Venture
26:56 RIAs and Private Wealth as the Next Source of Capital
31:58 The Emergence of Star Athletes and Actors as VCs
33:41 Most VCs Don't Add Value to Portfolio Companies
35:31 Comparing VC Funds: The Metrics That Lie
43:32 Sneaky VC Marketing Tricks and Marketing Materials
48:33 Reference Checks and Speaking with Founders
50:17 The Dry Powder Bubble
57:41 What You Need to Know About AI
59:47 Tracking AI Progress
01:03:42 The Politics of AI
01:07:32 The Next Stage of Training AI Models
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Demystifying First Brands Group’s $ 12 Billion Bankruptcy | Robert Smith of the Financial Times
Robert Smith, Corporate Finance Editor at the FT, joins Jack to discuss the recent $12 billion bankruptcy of First Brands Group that has shocked the financial world. He explains the history of First Brands, its collapse, and the company’s ongoing bankruptcy proceedings. Robert also discusses the larger world of private credit and if First Brands is the first of many ‘credit cockroaches.’ The bankruptcy is of particular interest given the fact that it could be a signal of further problems on the horizon of the private credit market. Recorded on November 21st, 2025.
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First Brands Collapse in a Nutshell https://on.ft.com/48ptTUu
South Africa