Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:

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Ed Zitron, author of the Where's Your Ed At newsletter and host of the Better Offline podcast, returns to Monetary Matters to break down Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus, as reported by Reuters. Ed argues that in 2025 Anthropic spent $2.75 for every dollar of revenue, worse than OpenAI's $2.60, and that nearly half its sales ran through Google and Amazon, two companies that also compete with it. We discuss Anthropic's $518 billion in compute commitments, why AI "run rate" figures can be misleading, and what the reported surge in 2026 revenue does and doesn't tell us. Ed also gives his take on Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots, and on whether AI agents can win over consumers. Then we turn to the credit markets: CoreWeave's borrowing costs, Oracle's ratings risk, data center SPVs trading below par, and how much of this debt sits with private credit lenders. Ed closes with his predictions for the Anthropic IPO and what he expects the AI build-out to look like by this time next year. Recorded afternoon of September 30, 2026.

Ed Zitron on X https://x.com/edzitron

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

Pieces Discussed:

“Dead Money” (Sep 29, 2026): https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/

“Premium: The Hater's Guide To AI Debt (Part 2)” (Sep 25, 2026): https://www.wheresyoured.at/premium-the-haters-guide-to-ai-debt-part-2/

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Ben Pouladian of BEP Research returns to Monetary Matters to break down who's winning and losing in AI right now, starting with Meta's Muse, the consumer agent he calls the "McDonald's version" of AI, and why he thinks its revenue will come mostly from ads rather than subscriptions, especially across WhatsApp-first markets like India and Brazil. Ben explains why the token bill for agentic AI dwarfs the CPU bill, why the key metric is becoming cost per token per megawatt, and why he believes "all roads and rockets lead to NVIDIA." He makes the case against AMD, including his open letter to Lisa Su and the scaling challenges of the Helios rack, and argues that NVIDIA GPUs are the "Rodeo Drive" of digital real estate because they are fungible and financeable in a way custom ASICs are not. Jack pushes back with TrendForce data showing every part of the AI supply chain is tight except GPUs, and Ben responds that commodity bottlenecks like memory and hard drives get crushed once supply catches up, while the true bottleneck is powered, permitted land. They discuss the growing data center backlash and whether the base case should be 25 gigawatts rather than 43, Anthropic's S-1 and its roughly half-trillion-dollar compute commitments, and whether AI lab revenue can double again next year. The conversation closes with scaling laws, why models will segment like grades of gasoline, AI's move into biology and drug discovery, and stock ideas including Meta, Lam Research, and Lattice Semiconductor. Recorded September 29, 2026.

“Meta's Muse Rally Bought the Wrong Layer. We modeled a billion agent users. The investment case turns on activity, token costs and trust”: https://newsletter.bepresearch.com/p/metas-muse-rally-bought-the-wrong?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

Ben Pouladian on X https://x.com/benitoz

BEP Research: https://www.bepresearch.com/

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James Elbaor, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Marlton LLC joins OPM to discuss why the private credit boom is officially over. Elbaor explains how artificial intelligence is threatening the SaaS businesses that make up over half a trillion dollars of private credit exposure, while also detailing how liquidity gates are currently trapping investors in massive interval funds like BCRED. The discussion concludes by exploring lucrative upcoming merger opportunities in the public BDC space and analyzing why asset managers utilizing permanent capital vehicles are being rewarded with premium market multiples.

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JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:42 Private Credit Redemptions Continue

07:03 IPO Window Shuts & Credit Fund M&A

15:28 AI Threat to SaaS Borrowers

16:51 Sponsor Message Plutus

18:17 Private Credit vs Private Equity

24:25 Systemic Risk and Wrappers

29:15 Public vs Private BDC Gap

34:46 Why Interval Funds List

39:44 Alt Managers Valuation Reset

43:33 Permanent Capital Explained

50:17 Hedge Funds vs Private Equity

54:41 Pershing Square Liquidity

01:04:17 Conclusion

Henry Peabody, senior investment strategist at GMO, joins Monetary Matters to explain why the Fed has an unofficial third mandate: managing how credit flows through an economy that is increasingly outside the banks. With private credit and fixed-rate borrowing loosening the link between Fed policy and the real economy, Henry argues that rate hikes are hitting consumers and weaker borrowers while large corporates and the AI complex keep borrowing almost regardless of cost. That bifurcation, he says, means the Fed may have to take rates higher than anyone expects to cool demand, adding risk to markets. Jack and Henry discuss the opacity of private credit, why the credit cycle is "one of the most dependable things in finance," why recoveries on software loans could be close to zero, and the lessons of BDCs in 2008. Henry also shares how GMO is positioning in fixed income: less duration and less vanilla credit risk, more short-duration structured credit, and a preference for emerging market local debt. They close on the dollar, where long-term rates are headed, and the fiscal reckoning coming for Social Security. Recorded September 17, 2026.

“Triple Mandate” by Henry Peabody: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/triple-mandate_whitepaper/

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

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Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 style bear market. He also explores the global coordination of rate hikes and why he believes the participation of lower growth economies like Canada indicate that this is a reaction to higher energy prices and not a substantially higher global neutral rate.

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JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:56 Fed Hike and Higher for Longer

02:30 Oil Driving Global Yields

05:58 Canada and Global Neutral Rate

07:14 Energy Crisis and Degrowth Risks

08:44 Politicized Fed and Credibility

11:50 Neutral Rate and AI CapEx Boom

14:47 Inflation Outlook and Policy Mistakes

17:20 Plutus Sponsor Break

18:46 Key Data to Watch: Bank Lending

20:07 Doves vs Hawks and Fiscal Drag

23:30 2022 Style Bear Market Setup

25:56 What Could Invalidate the Thesis?

26:41 BOJ Hike and Yen Intervention

31:20 Korea Silicon Boom

35:43 Europe Under Pressure

39:25 Middle East Outlook

43:06 Midterm Issues: AI vs. Gas Prices

48:34 China Oil Strategy

52:10 Big Calls Wrap