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Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
Top Traders Unplugged
Latest episode

937 episodes

  • Top Traders Unplugged

    SI403: Trend Following in an Era of Geopolitical Risk ft. Marat Molyboga & Katy Kaminski

    2026/06/06 | 1h 24 mins.
    Geopolitical tensions, inflation shocks, and shifting market regimes are reshaping the investment landscape. Marat Molyboga and Katy Kaminski joins us to explore why managed futures have historically performed well during periods of geopolitical stress and why investors often misunderstand the role of crisis alpha in a portfolio. The conversation examines inflation driven market disruptions, diversification, short term versus long term trend following, portfolio construction, and the behavioural mistakes that prevent many investors from capturing the full benefits of trend strategies. It is a wide ranging discussion about risk, uncertainty, and adapting to a changing world.
    -----
    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to [email protected]
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Introduction and welcome to the Systematic Investor series
    01:13 - Marat Molyboga's background and Efficient Capital's investment philosophy
    05:29 - World Cup excitement, soccer stories, and thoughts beyond markets
    11:36 - AI, market concentration, energy trends, and major macro headlines
    15:16 - Trend following performance review and key market drivers in 2026
    23:36 - Understanding crisis alpha and the role of managed futures in portfolios
    33:24 - Diversification, portfolio construction, and avoiding investor mistakes
    44:08 - Geopolitical risk research and its connection to inflation
    53:01 - Why managed futures have historically benefited from geopolitical uncertainty
    59:01 - Commodities, inflation shocks, and the mechanics behind crisis alpha
    01:06:47 - The case for short term trend following and execution challenges
    01:20:31 - Final thoughts and lessons for navigating an uncertain investment landscape
    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
    3. Other Resources that can help you
    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
    Privacy Policy
    Disclaimer
  • Top Traders Unplugged

    ALO35: Why Macro Investing Is Becoming More Systematic ft. George Patterson

    2026/06/03 | 1h 1 mins.
    How do quantitative investors adapt when markets, technology and macro regimes are constantly changing? In this conversation, Alan Dunne sits down with George Patterson, CIO of PGIM Quant Solutions, to explore the evolution of systematic investing from the 1990s to today’s AI driven landscape. They discuss regime detection, inflation risk, portfolio construction, machine learning, private markets, volatility overlays and the growing role of language models in investment research. George also shares insights from decades in quant investing, including lessons from Covid, the importance of model discipline and why communication skills matter as much as technical expertise.
    -----
    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to [email protected]
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Alan on Twitter.
    Follow George on LinkedIn.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Introduction to George Patterson and his journey from physics to quantitative investing
    03:12 - Why multidisciplinary teams matter in modern quant investing
    04:13 - Inside PGIM Quant Solutions and the evolution of multi asset investing
    06:03 - How markets and macro investing have changed since the 1990s
    09:12 - The future of the 60/40 portfolio and institutional portfolio construction
    12:11 - Private markets, liquidity challenges and institutional investor concerns
    13:25 - Inflation, commodities and building modern inflation hedges
    19:33 - Detecting macro regimes using quantitative models
    23:26 - The hardest part of systematic investing: trusting the process
    27:00 - Covid, model failures and managing regime shifts in real time
    30:07 - Portfolio protection, options strategies and volatility overlays
    32:01 - How AI and large language models are transforming quantitative research
    40:02 - Fiscal risks, inflation concerns and the changing rate environment
    44:26 - Simplicity versus complexity in quantitative model design
    48:05 - Why markets evolve faster today and how models must adapt
    51:08 - Retail investors, meme stocks and market distortions
    53:33 - Emerging markets and where long term opportunities may exist
    55:08 - The future of quant investing and the limits of AI hype
    57:10 - George Patterson’s career advice for aspiring quants
    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
    3. Other Resources that can help you
    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
    Privacy Policy
    Disclaimer
  • Top Traders Unplugged

    SI402: Why Markets Can’t Stop Trending ft. Richard Brennan

    2026/05/30 | 1h 30 mins.
    What happens when markets stop behaving like machines and start behaving like living systems? In this episode, Richard Brennan joins Niels to explore passive investing, complex adaptive systems, volatility suppression, and the hidden forces reshaping modern market structure. From structured products and reflexive flows to demographics, trend following, and the fragile illusion of equilibrium, this conversation asks whether markets are becoming more unstable precisely because investors believe they have become safer. A thoughtful and layered discussion about why price discovery may be weakening, why trends persist, and why systematic strategies may be more relevant in a world increasingly shaped by feedback loops.
    -----
    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to [email protected]
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Rich on Twitter.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Introduction to the episode and overview of today’s discussion
    02:22 - Richard Brennan breaks down passive investing through the lens of complex adaptive systems
    06:51 - What “complex adaptive systems” actually means in markets
    14:53 - Why passive investing changes market structure without individual investors realizing it
    24:06 - Niels discusses structured products, volatility suppression, and market fragility
    29:23 - How demographic shifts could eventually reshape passive investing trends
    35:37 - Trend following performance update and the TTU Trend Barometer
    38:48 - Listener question on variance, volatility, and correlation in systematic trend following
    42:04 - The “murmuration” analogy and why markets behave like flocks instead of machines
    48:31 - Why equilibrium theory survives despite failing to explain real markets
    51:17 - The endogenous engine of markets and the mechanics of reflexivity
    57:47 - How trend followers align with the architecture of modern markets
    01:03:12 - Why passive investing weakens balancing forces and strengthens trends
    01:13:43 - The statistical evidence showing markets structurally trend over time
    01:21:18 - Why trend following may become even more effective in the future
    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
    3. Other Resources that can help you
    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
    Privacy Policy
    Disclaimer
  • Top Traders Unplugged

    IL49: The Space Economy Is No Longer Science Fiction ft. Rainer Zitelmann

    2026/05/27 | 1h 1 mins.
    On this episode we are joined by Dr. Rainer Zitelmann, to discuss his book New Space Capitalism: The Entrepreneurial Path to the Stars. We discuss why government-funded space programs were initially successful but also why the future of space exploration, and the space economy, will be driven by private companies. Dr. Zitelmann explains what he believes to be the key driver of unlocking the economic potential of space and why it’s conceivable that ventures such as space tourism, orbital data centers and asteroid mining might be listed on the stock exchange. This is a conversation for everyone who wants an early look at an industry that is about to “take off”!
    -----
    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to [email protected]
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
    Follow Rainer on Instagram and read his book.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Why incentives may explain why humans stopped going to the moon
    01:07 - Kevin introduces Dr. Rainer Zitelmann and New Space Capitalism
    02:47 - How childhood fascination with space led to a lifelong interest
    05:45 - Why Apollo succeeded and why it may have been a historical exception
    09:22 - The Space Shuttle program and the limits of government-led innovation
    13:50 - How SpaceX changed the economics of launch services
    20:32 - Why private property rights may be essential for space capitalism
    24:36 - The legal uncertainty around owning land and resources in space
    32:23 - How Mars settlement could be financed through private ownership
    42:49 - Asteroid mining, space resources and the business case beyond Earth
    48:06 - Space tourism and why early innovation often starts with the wealthy
    53:51 - How investors might think about the emerging space economy
    58:27 - Why space capitalism is no longer science fiction
    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
    3. Other Resources that can help you
    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
    Privacy Policy
    Disclaimer
  • Top Traders Unplugged

    SI401: Why Trend Following Wins in Chaos ft. Nick Baltas

    2026/05/23 | 1h 1 mins.
    The world of systematic investing is evolving fast, and in this episode Nick Baltas joins Moritz Seibert to explore the explosive growth of QIS strategies, the current state of trend following in 2026, and the challenges facing systematic investors in today’s macro environment. They discuss crowding risks in quantitative strategies, the recent collapse in commodity curve carry, and why some trend managers continue to outperform through broader diversification and alternative markets. The conversation also dives into execution alpha, AI driven research workflows, inflation risks, and the ongoing institutional demand for systematic macro strategies. A sharp and highly practical discussion for anyone interested in trend following, QIS, commodities, and quantitative investing.
    -----
    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to [email protected]
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Nick on Twitter.
    Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 – Introduction to the episode
    01:17 – Nick Baltas on AI, research, and market volatility
    03:02 – Trend following performance update for May 2026
    06:25 – What investors are focusing on in QIS strategies
    10:14 – Is there cyclicality in investor demand for QIS?
    15:25 – Wall Street Journal article on the growth of QIS
    17:15 – Crowding risks and overlapping systematic strategies
    24:15 – Can hedge funds front run QIS trades?
    27:46 – Commodity curve carry explained
    30:48 – Largest drawdown ever for commodity curve strategies
    33:59 – Is now the right time to buy commodity curve carry?
    37:20 – Why some curve carry implementations still made money
    40:01 – Trend following performance across alternative vs traditional markets
    44:21 – Why broader trend portfolios may improve Sharpe ratios
    47:22 – Listener question: Is there alpha in execution?
    49:53 – How CTAs think about execution and slippage
    53:50 – Why trend following on single name equities is rare
    57:58 – Chesapeake’s single name trend approach
    59:04 – Final thoughts and wrap up
    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
    3. Other Resources that can help you
    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
    Privacy Policy
    Disclaimer
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About Top Traders Unplugged
Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience. 🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com
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