Elephants in the Boardroom

February 2026 already feels like a year. In this month’s episode, Graeme Codrington explores two forces leaders can’t afford to treat as background noise: geopolitical rupture and the unseen diversity inside their own organisations.
Graeme turns to China to illustrate what Kairos readiness looks like in practice: long-term planning, disciplined execution, and the ability to move decisively when the world fractures. He explores China’s five-year planning model, the intent behind the 2035 and 2049 roadmaps, and why preparedness consistently beats reaction.
Later in the episode, Graeme is joined by Dr. Sarah Babb to examine neurodiversity as a leadership and performance issue-not an HR side topic. They unpack what neurodiversity really means, why “normal” is the wrong frame, and how organisations can move beyond individual accommodations toward system-level neuroinclusion that strengthens innovation, talent, and customer experience.
Whether you’re looking at global strategy or organisational design, the message is consistent: what you ignore today shapes your constraints tomorrow.
Key takeaways -
🧭 You can’t keep up - so change how you engage
The world has moved beyond “transition” into rupture: fast, non-linear change that breaks old assumptions.
Your edge comes from frameworks, not feeds.

🦅 Kairos vs Chronos: the moment you can grab
Chronos is chronological time; Kairos is the window of opportunity.
Leaders win by being ready to move when the moment arrives-before competitors even realise it’s here.

🇨🇳 China as a strategic planning case study
China’s rolling five-year plan model has delivered an unusually high proportion of targets over decades.
The release of the 2035 and 2049 plans is a signal: China is aligning short-, medium-, and long-term execution.
Key shifts to watch:
Incentives for Chinese firms to globalise and welcome partners
A changing stance on intellectual property and global standards
Rapid trade responsiveness as geopolitical relationships fracture

🧠 Neurodiversity: the “unseen diversity” organisations are missing
Dr. Babb frames neurodiversity as normal variation in brain functioning, not a neat binary of “typical vs divergent.”
The opportunity is both internal (talent, innovation, resilience) and external (customers, product design, accessibility).
The real question for leaders: Do you want diversity of thinking-and are you prepared to support it?

🏢 What organisations should do now
Move beyond one-off programs and confidential...

The future isn’t hiding in forecasts or trend reports. It’s already standing in front of us.
In this special episode, Graeme Codrington and Dean Van Leeuwen examine the grey elephants already reshaping leadership, strategy, and society - highly probable, high-impact forces that are now moving from theory into reality.
From human enhancement to climate-driven insurance collapse, antimicrobial resistance and AI-driven deception to fragile tech investment models and an increasingly multipolar world, this episode challenges leaders to abandon passive optimism and adopt deliberate action.
The message is clear: 2026 won’t reward those who wait.
But it will reward those who recognise what’s already here - and respond decisively.
Key takeaways -
🐘 The Grey Elephant mindset
Grey elephants aren’t surprises - they’re obvious forces we avoid discussing.
2026 will reward leaders who are conscious, decisive, and proactive, even if decisions aren’t perfect.

🏟️ Enhanced Games & human augmentation
A proposed 2026 sporting event where performance enhancement is transparent and allowed.
Less about sport, more about a shift from paternalism → autonomy and changing rules of competition.
A signal for societal fractures and new definitions of “fairness”.

🌍 Climate change meets insurance reality
Insurers quietly withdrawing from high-risk regions or pricing cover out of reach.
Knock-on effects: housing markets, migration, supply chains, local government finances.
Leaders should watch re-insurance markets closely.

🦠 Superbugs & antimicrobial resistance
Already causing ~1M deaths per year-and rising.
An “unsexy” crisis with huge implications for healthcare, productivity, and mortality.
A massive blind spot for governments, investors, and businesses alike.

🤖 AI fakery & cybersecurity
In 2026, trust collapses: voices, faces, video, and audio can all be faked.
The question is no longer “Can we trust?” but “How do we operate when we can’t?”
Opportunity lies in verification, design, and new trust infrastructures.

🧠 Human connection as a superpower
As AI intelligence accelerates, human consciousness-empathy, judgement, ethics-becomes scarce and valuable.
Leaders should ask two questions:

Where can AI drive efficiency?
Where does being human create competitive advantage?

📉 The AI investment bubble
Not an AI collapse-but potential turbulence in the financial plumbing behind big tech.
Circular financing, GPU economics, and concentrated risk could cause a market shock in 2026.

🌐 Multipolar geopolitics
The post-WWII order is fragmenting faster than many expected.
New alliances, broken assumptions, and uncomfortable moral trade-offs are emerging.
Businesses must scenario-plan for worlds that once felt unthinkable.

💡 Reasons for optimism
Amid disruption, medical breakthroughs are accelerating.
Cancer vaccines and other major advances could define the upside of 2026.

Thanks to Lee, Philippa, Jude, Darren and Nasreen for their contributions to this episode.
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In this special episode, hosts Graeme Codrington and Dean Van Leeuwen broadcast live from the Dubai Futures Forum, the world’s largest gathering of futurists. They share insights on emerging trends, including the value of focus in a distracted world, the evolving meaning of expertise in the age of AI, and the importance of hope and wonder for driving change. Recorded at the iconic Dubai Museum of the Future, the episode encourages listeners to confront overlooked challenges and actively shape a positive, ambitious future.
Our January episode will be another special as we look forward to the year ahead and what we predict 2026 might hold. We’re also inviting listeners to get involved by submitting their 2026 predictions. Submit yours at https://www.tomorrowtodayglobal.com/2026predictions.
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Connect with Graeme and Dean:
Connect with Graeme on LinkedIn here
Email Dean at [email protected]

If you're interested in learning more about the 7 Grey Elephants and how they're transforming the world you can download TomorrowToday's white paper here
www.tomorrowtodayglobal.com/greyelephants
TomorrowToday Consulting empowers forward-thinking organisations to not just anticipate the future, but to shape it. Staying ahead of the curve is critical, and we provide the visionary thinking and strategic execution you need to thrive.
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Graeme Codrington and Dean Van Leeuwen explore this month’s “grey elephants”: the collision of AI and energy demand, the strategic rise of sovereign AI, and an overlooked resource, sand. Then Graeme sits down with Cape Town–based writer and columnist Tom Eaton to unpack what the world can learn from South Africa’s last 30 years: state capture, institutional decay and repair, and why change can arrive suddenly, good or bad.

Key Topics Discussed
AI x Energy
Data centres scaling to small-nation power loads; AI is both energy hog and grid optimizer.
Two futures: grids buckle vs. AI catalyses smarter, cleaner, more resilient systems.
Boardroom takeaway: align digital and energy strategies; efficiency is competitive advantage.

“Cloud” in Space
Big idea doing the rounds: gigawatt-scale AI training clusters off-planet.
Regardless of space hype, leaders must solve earthbound energy constraints first.

Sovereign AI
Nations racing to control compute + energy + data to reduce dependency on rivals.
Corporate echo: prove AI value, then move toward sovereign AI footprints (own models, data, infra).

Sand Scarcity
Specific sands for cement, silicon chips, glass are finite and ecologically costly to extract.
Expect supply shocks, regulation, and materials innovation opportunities.

Quiz Corner
Sector with up to 60% electricity savings via AI optimization: Utilities.
Companies leading in AI projected to widen revenue gap vs. peers by ~30% (near-term).
Term for national AI stacks: Sovereign AI.

Interview - Tom Eaton
No going back: after institutional damage, restoration is slow, contested, and incomplete.
Beware “liberator euphoria”: the post-crisis leader gets too much leeway; stay critical.
No adults in the building: don’t assume competent saviours or self-preservation will fix systems.
Change can be sudden: systems can transform quickly—worse or better—so keep options ready.
Personal advice: be less online; read history to gain perspective and pattern recognition.

Featured Guest
Tom Eaton — South African author, screenwriter, and columnist known for incisive commentary across politics and culture. His recent writing distils practical lessons from South Africa’s experience with corruption, state capture, and democratic resilience for a world facing similar trends.

Connect with Graeme and Dean
Connect with Graeme Codrington on LinkedIn
Email Dean Van Leeuwen: [email protected]
Explore the 7 Grey Elephants: www.tomorrowtodayglobal.com/greyelephants
General enquiries: [email protected]

Elephants in the Boardroom is powered by Achilles.
Achilles helps the world’s biggest companies build ethical, sustainable, and transparent supply chains, reducing risk while unlocking opportunity.
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Episode Overview
Graeme Codrington (Johannesburg) and Dean Van Leeuwen (South of London) explore fresh “grey elephant” signals—from subterranean data centres and living with a >2°C world, to UN reform rumblings—then sit down with Øistein Jensen, Chief Sustainability Officer at Oddfjell, to unpack how a 110-year-old global chemical shipping company is tackling decarbonisation, supply-chain due diligence, and industry-wide collaboration.
Key Topics Discussed
Grey Elephants Radar
Converging, high-impact forces post-COVID; a once-in-a-century transformation.
Strategy lens: identify weak signals early; turn risk into opportunity.

Subterranean Data Centres
Old mines/bunkers reimagined as “underground data fortresses.”
Strategic logic: protect critical data; manage cooling, power, and resilience.
Side bet: cooling technology becomes a shovel-in-the-gold-rush play.

Living with >2°C
Move beyond “prevention only” to adaptation + resilience at scale.
Practical mindset shift (as with COVID): learn to operate in new conditions.

UN & Multipolarity Weak Signals
Calls for African representation; scrutiny of Security Council veto power.
Diplomatic flashpoints as indicators of a shifting geopolitical order.
Boardroom takeaway: model tariff shocks, sanctions, supply-route rewiring.

BANI World & Grey Elephants
Today’s reality: Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible.
Build antifragile strategies before the stampede starts.

The Quiz
First military “drone” use: Austrian incendiary balloons over Venice (1849).

Interview — Øistein Jensen, CSO, Oddfjell
Decarbonisation now: efficiency first; multiple fuels/tech—no single silver bullet.
Regulation & level playing field: strong IMO rules to avoid “go-bankrupt green.”
Holistic value chain: avoid offloading emissions upstream; measure Scope 3.
Data & transparency: rising customer expectations across the full chain.
Partnerships: industry bodies, local forums on human rights, technology co-dev.
Supplier due diligence: shared platforms (e.g., Achilles) cut duplication and lift standards.
Embedding sustainability: company-wide incentives tied to climate trajectories.

Featured Guest
Øistein Jensen — Chief Sustainability Officer, Oddfjell (global leader in chemical shipping). Oversees sustainability, compliance and strategic safety. Former submarine commander in the Royal Norwegian Navy; prior experience at PwC.
Connect with Graeme and Dean
Connect with Graeme Codrington on LinkedIn
Email Dean Van Leeuwen: [email protected]
Explore the 7 Grey Elephants: www.tomorrowtodayglobal.com/greyelephants
General enquiries: [email protected]

Elephants in the Boardroom is powered by Achilles.
Achilles helps the world’s biggest companies build ethical, sustainable, and transparent supply chains—reducing risk while unlocking opportunity.
Keywords
grey elephants, BANI, multipolarity, UN reform, underground data centres, mines to data fortresses, climate adaptation, >2°C world, shipping...