AI CEO: ‘Stock Crash Could Stop AI Progress’, Llama 4 Anti-climax +‘Superintelligence in 2027’...
The latest on Llama 4, and whether it signals a slowdown in AI, or solid progress. Plus, a deep dive on that viral prediction of superintelligence by 2027, and Amodei’s cautionary words on what could stop AI progress in its tracks. o3 news, and more, as well.Weights & Biases: https://weave-docs.wandb.ai/?utm_source=sponsorship&utm_medium=simple_bench&utm_campaign=ai_explainedDeepSeek Doc: https://www.patreon.com/posts/openai-is-not-r1-125869969AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedChapters:00:00 - Introduction00:47 - Stock Crash 02:28 - Llama 410:55 - o3 News11:59 - OpenAI non-profit?13:13 - AI 2027Llama 4 Release: https://ai.meta.com/blog/llama-4-multimodal-intelligence/Dario Amodei Comments: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esCSpbDPJikKnowledge Cut-off: https://www.llama.com/docs/model-cards-and-prompt-formats/llama4_omni/Aider Polyglot: https://aider.chat/docs/leaderboards/Gemini 1.5: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.05530Fiction-LiveBench: https://fiction.live/stories/Fiction-liveBench-Mar-25-2025/oQdzQvKHw8JyXbN87OpenAI Valuation: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/technology/openai-valuation-300-billion.html?login=smartlock&auth=login-smartlockOpenAI Cybersecurity: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-16/openai-working-with-us-military-on-cybersecurity-tools-for-veteransDeep research System Card: https://cdn.openai.com/deep-research-system-card.pdfhttps://openai.com/index/paperbench/AI 2027: https://ai-2027.com/METR Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.14499OpenAI non-profit: https://openai.com/index/nonprofit-commission-guidance/NYT Piece: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/technology/ai-futures-project-ai-2027.html?unlocked_article_code=1.804._yKi.QhwOp15Q3tcU&smid=url-share&s=09Kokotajlo predictions 2021: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-likehttps://simple-bench.com/Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/
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23:51
Gemini 2.5 Pro - It’s a Smart Chatbot … (New Simple High Score)
Gemini gets a new record on Simple Bench, and several other benchmarks. I’ll go deep to explore its nuances, including how it deceptively reverse engineers answers, does better on certain coding benchmarks than others, may have a universal ‘conceptual language’ …https://weave-docs.wandb.ai/?utm_source=sponsorship&utm_medium=simple_bench&utm_campaign=ai_explained… and more. Plus practical tips, a note on security and Kling vs Veo 2 guest appearance.AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedChapters:00:00 - Introduction00:36 - Fiction Bench02:41 - Practicality - YouTube urls + Security - cut-off date03:42 - Coding 06:22 - WeirdML Bench07:01 - Simple Bench Record High 11:23 - Reverse Engineering!13:22 - Anthropic Paper17:49 - 3 CaveatsGemini 2.5 Updated: https://deepmind.google/technologies/gemini/Fiction Live Bench: https://fiction.live/stories/Fiction-liveBench-Feb-19-2025/oQdzQvKHw8JyXbN87https://simple-bench.com/WeirdML: https://htihle.github.io/weirdml.htmlhttps://x.com/htihle/status/1905014058228625542Anthropic Thoughts: https://www.anthropic.com/research/tracing-thoughts-language-modelhttps://transformer-circuits.pub/2025/attribution-graphs/biology.html#dives-cothttps://aistudio.google.com/prompts/new_chatSearch Study: https://www.cjr.org/tow_center/we-compared-eight-ai-search-engines-theyre-all-bad-at-citing-news.phpLive bench: https://livebench.ai/#/Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.19314LiveCode Bench: https://livecodebench.github.io/SWE-Verified: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2310.06770Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/
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21:21
Did AI Just Get Commoditized? Gemini 2.5, New DeepSeek V3, & Microsoft vs OpenAI
Gemini 2.5 is out, on the same day as the new DeepSeek V3 (which should power Deepseek R2). Do both models prove AI is being commoditized? Let’s find out, on this blockbuster day of AI releases. Plus exclusives from the Information, Simple indications, Vista Bench, LM Arena and more…AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedChapters: 00:00 - Introduction01:15 - Gemini 2.5 Benchmarks05:46 - Long Context, Simple indication07:08 - New Deepseek V3 -02409:11 - Microsoft MAI11:48 - 90% of code but new Claude jobs‘World’s most powerful model’: https://x.com/OfficialLoganK/status/1904580368432586975Gemini 2.5 Release Notes: https://blog.google/technology/google-deepmind/gemini-model-thinking-updates-march-2025/#gemini-2-5-thinking‘Commoditized’: https://the-decoder.com/microsoft-ceo-satya-nadella-says-ai-models-are-getting-commoditized/Microsoft Information report: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/microsofts-ai-guru-wants-independence-from-openai-thats-easier-said-than-done?rc=sy0ihqLMarena: https://x.com/lmarena_ai/status/1904581128746656099/photo/1Free for now: https://x.com/btibor91/status/1904578053537476628Vista Bench:https://scale.com/leaderboard/visual_language_understandingDeepSeek V3: https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V3-0324Claude Plays Pokemon: https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemonAmodei: 100% Coding: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esCSpbDPJik&t=3017sAnthropic Jobs: https://job-boards.greenhouse.io/anthropic/jobs/4020717008Microsoft Money from Onslaught: https://www.972mag.com/microsoft-azure-openai-israeli-army-cloud/https://simple-bench.com/Release Date Comments: https://x.com/zacharynado/status/1904647277861318979Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/
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13:47
Manus AI - The Calm Before the Hypestorm … (vs Deep Research + Grok 3)
Is Manus AI the memecoin of the AI world, or legit? I’ll compare it to OpenAI’s Deep Research, Operator, Grok 3 DeepSearch and more to find out. I’ll also let you in on some of the secrets of what makes a good hype campaign, the estimated costs of Manus AI, and where it is strong. Other news (yes, Gemini image editing and research hacking, I mean you), will have to wait for a few more hours, as millions enquire about Manus AI.https://app.grayswan.ai/arenaAI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedPatreon Vid: https://www.patreon.com/posts/4-ai-trends-in-123857767Chapters:00:00 - Introduction00:46 - Hype Campaign02:40 - Single, Public Benchmark 03:12 - What is Manus AI?04:22 - Test 105:12 - Cost and Rate Limits06:15 - Test 2 vs Deep Research + Grok 3 DeepSearch08:24 - Test 3 (not AGI)11:10 - 4 Trends in AI in 202511:37 - Hype WorksManus AI: https://manus.im/appXiao Hong Interview: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/manus-chinas-latest-ai-sensationGaia Benchmark: https://openreview.net/pdf?id=fibxvahvs3MIT Report: https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/03/11/1113133/manus-ai-review/Information Report: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropics-claude-drives-strong-revenue-growth-while-powering-manus-sensation?rc=sy0ihqHype Examples: https://x.com/Saboo_Shubham_/status/1898425707401031940https://x.com/EHuanglu/status/1899110687902978373https://x.com/AJs_AI/status/1898756132384178291Mistakes: https://x.com/TheXeophon/status/1898737178273829220Tools and Code: https://x.com/peakji/status/1898994802194346408https://operator.chatgpt.com/Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/
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12:58
GPT 4.5 - not so much wow
GPT 4.5 is here, and do you remember when AI lab CEOs like Sam Altman and Dario Amodei were betting everything on scaling up base models like this one? Well let’s find out what would have happened if the future of AI rested on models like GPT 4.5. You’ll see all the benchmarks, highlights of the paper, emotional intelligence and humor tests, Simple Bench results (reddit was an unreliable source), and why it’s not all bad news for OpenAI.https://www.emergentmind.com/AI Insiders (now $9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedChapters00:00 - Introduction01:04 - Details and Benchmarks03:04 - Emotional intelligence? 08:37 - Creative writing?11:40 - Visual reasoning and Pricing12:41 - Simple Performance16:01 - End of Pretraining Scaling?17:03 - CEO Hype18:11 - System Card Highlights23:32 - Karpathy ReactionGPT 4.5 System card: https://cdn.openai.com/gpt-4-5-system-card-2272025.pdfRelease Notes: https://openai.com/index/gpt-4-5-system-card/Altman Hype: https://x.com/sama/status/1891533802779910471Details: https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-4-5/ https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1895219596317335792End of an Era: https://x.com/wgussml/status/1895187231666774377Anthropic Original Claim: https://techcrunch.com/2023/04/06/anthropics-5b-4-year-plan-to-take-on-openai/Smell: https://x.com/rapha_gl/status/1895213014699385082Bob McGrew: https://x.com/bobmcgrewai/status/1895228291981943265Deep Research System Card: https://cdn.openai.com/deep-research-system-card.pdfReddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1izu1t7/gpt45_crushes_simple_bench/API Pricing: https://openai.com/api/pricing/LiveStream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfRYp0nItZ8&t=1shttps://simple-bench.com/Karpathy Comparison: https://x.com/karpathy/status/1895213020982472863https://x.com/karpathy/status/1895337579589079434Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/
Covering the biggest news of the century - the arrival of smarter-than-human AI. From the author of Simple Bench, which reveals the remaining gap between LLM and human reasoning. Hype-free, and the British accent is a freebie bonus.
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