The Real Investment Show Podcast

Our Christmas Day Best-Of episode revisits some of the most important investing and financial planning discussions of the year. Lance Roberts, Danny Ratliff, & Jonathan Penn examine whether the traditional 60/40 portfolio still serves its original purpose of reducing volatility, and what the three legs of investing mean in today's market environment; whether the Federal Reserve has shifted away from its inflation mandate, how to interpret 2- and 3-standard-deviation market moves using tools like Bollinger Bands, and which economic data truly matters for investors—and where to find it. We close by addressing common misconceptions around inflation, including the real impact of tariffs and why sustainable economic growth requires some level of inflation, along with a thoughtful discussion on when marriage can be a sound financial decision—and when it may not be. A reflective, evergreen episode focused on perspective, risk management, and better decision-making heading into the new year. 0:00 - INTRO 0:17 - Live Q&A: Is the 60-40 Rule still viable - the goal is reducing volatility (three legs of investing) 8:52 - Has the Fed given up on their inflation mandate? 12:04 - Explain 2x, 3x standard deviations from average (Bollinger Band articles) 15:40 - What data to watch (and where can you find it)? 18:48 - Inflation: true impact of tariffs? True sources of Inflation: No inflation, no economic growth 23:20 - When is marriage a good investment (and when is it not)? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oi-a7CySU1g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Pause Before the Fed: Time to Trim Risk?," is here: https://youtu.be/watJ1Jqsf-4 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/ -------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Dealing with Debt & Smart Money Moves" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iPM7ef0BKg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingEducation #MarketRisk #FederalReserve #Inflation #FinancialPlanning

The Federal Reserve is entering a pivotal phase, and the decisions it makes now will define the next era of monetary policy. Lance Roberts and The Fed Guy, Joseph Wang, examine the structural forces putting the Fed at a crossroads—from rate cuts and shifting labor-market dynamics to the long-term impact of AI, tariff-driven inflation, and changes in the Fed's balance-sheet strategy. We explore why markets appear bullish on economic growth despite weakening employment data, how tariff inflation may be a one-time impulse, and what a redesigned policy framework could look like as banks, regulators, and political leaders debate the Fed's future role. If you want a grounded assessment of where monetary policy is heading and how structural changes could reshape markets, this episode provides the context investors need. 0:00 - INTRO 1:07 - Fed Rate Cuts & Commentary 5:37 - Markets Are Bullish About Economic Growth vs Employment Data; Tariff Inflation? One-Time Impact 7:59 - Labor Market Commentary 8:56 - Impact of AI? Double-checking the bot; building data centers; 11:25 - How will the Fed respond to AI impact on labor market? 12:47 - The Shift in Fed Policy - Ben Bernanke: Boosting asset prices to improve consumer mood 15:28 - The Fed is at a crossroads in its role - a smaller Fed balance sheet? 18:00 - Fed to de-regulate commercial banks (supplementary leverage ratio) so they can take over Fed's role? 20:16 - Is the Fox in the henhouse? 21:42 - How to unwind Fed balance sheet? 23:27 - Fed to Purchase $40-B in Bonds - not QE? 24:55 - QE vs Reserve Management Purchase 27:13 - Never Going back to Zero Interest Rates? 28:48 - Government Bond Rollover coming - will banks manage? 31:54 - Administrative make up of the future Fed - Kevin Hassett? - How Low will Rates Go; would low rates help with affordability; will the Fed Become more Trump-dominated? 38:34 - What is the risk from lower rates? 41:09 - Changes in the way we operate - the past is not the future. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Joseph Wang, CIO, The Fed Guy Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/uv88L9zT4Ok?feature=share ------- Our Previous show, "Dollar Power, AI, & The New Financial Order," is here: https://youtube.com/live/QYUME1I-SDg?feature=share ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #MarketOutlook #AIEconomy #JosephWang #TheFedGuy

In this episode, Lance Roberts sits down with Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, to break down what's really happening with the U.S. dollar, the global monetary system, and why AI is accelerating a geopolitical and economic power shift. If you're looking for big-picture insights on the future of the dollar, geopolitics, AI-driven capital flows, and where long-term investing tailwinds are forming—this is a must-watch. 0:00 - INTRO 0:56 - Dollar Pessimism is Everywhere 3:32 - Why the Dollar Loses Purchasing Power: Inflation 5:08 - How Reserve Currencies Work - Why the Dollar is the Global Reserve Currency 6:30 - Why Oil is Priced in Dollars 9:07 - Reserve Currency Storage - Rule of Law & Liquidity Stability; effects of Euro Conversion on Reserves 11:10 - Ronald Regan clip, "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" 13:00 - Why the Dollar needs not be too strong or too weak (Chart - US Dollar Index) 16:00 - The Debt based monetary system 16:42 - The Carry Trade 19:59 - The Dollar Milkshake Theory - 21:00 - What a Falling Dollar would indicate 22:00 - The Impact of Where Money is Being Spent for AI Buildout - the multiplier effect; will this attract more foreign capital into the US? 25:11 - AI is transformational - Separation of East from West is happening; outcome is existential to the US 26:22 - The Office of Strategic Capital - 27:07 - The Race to Win AI - leadership in the global economy 28:53 - Two hang ups - Power generation/transmission grid 29:46 - Looking for the investing tailwinds 31:23 - The Fed's Return to QE 35:08 - Stablecoin vs Bitcoin - Digital Token, linked to a specific asset or commodity; Bitcoin which suffers from volatility 38:14 - The Genius Act - official blessing of Stablecoin; geopolitical implications 39:24 - The potential to become a new Eurodollar market - the importance of sovereignty for a nation 42:58 - Using Money as a weapon 44:46 - Stablecoin Implications for Investors - impact on Treasuries 47:14 - Currency Manipulation - China vs U.S. 50:30 - AI is overpriced - Looking ahead: short term cautious; buy the dip; Energy assets, including nuclear; critical minerals are national security implications 52:08 - Precious Metals outlook: If you own them, don't sell them; 53:40 - Opportunity in Energy Sector; Will VanLowe/Quantum - Energy Demand vs available supply imbalance 54:34 - The LNG supply gap solution 56:25 - How to Find Brent Johnson Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Brent Johnson, CEO, Santiago Capital, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYUME1I-SDg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAug2oeXwuQUeSf8Hd6AFR5O9&index=4 ------- Our Previous show, "Bear Markets Are a Good Thing," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdlhQgMthW4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "QE Is Coming: The 2008 Roots Of Fed Dominance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/qe-is-coming-the-2008-roots-of-fed-dominance/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BrentJohnson #USDollar #AIInvesting #GlobalMacro #FinancialMarkets

Markets are heading into year-end with optimism still firmly embedded in prices, but the economic data are telling a more complicated story. Lance Roberts examines the growing gap between the Federal Reserve's soft-landing narrative and what inflation, employment, consumer spending, and earnings expectations are actually signaling. While markets have stabilized following recent volatility, participation remains narrow, sentiment is elevated, and valuations appear priced for a smooth economic outcome in 2026. Lance Roberts breaks down the technical backdrop, including key support and resistance levels, momentum conditions, and volatility trends, along with the limited—but potentially market-moving—economic catalysts ahead. We also discuss why falling inflation driven by weakening demand presents a very different risk profile than supply-driven disinflation, and what that means for investors as liquidity thins into year-end. Finally, we outline risk-managed portfolio considerations if the Fed's assumptions prove optimistic and markets are forced to reprice expectations. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Christmas Week Preview & Valuation Ranges for 2026 3:28 - Markets Are Doing What Markets Do 10:35 - Challenges to the Fed's Soft Landing Narrative 14:06 - Earnings Growth Expectations Illustrated (charts) 20:22 - Risks to Look for in 2026 24:21 - Forecast Comparisons - Then & Now 28:00 - Valuations Are Elevated Everywhere 30:05 - Multiple Expansion Estimates - Three Scenarios 37:28 - Averages Returns Examined 39:06 - The Range of Outcomes - Not a Prediction 42:32 - Markets Have Been Too Easy 45:30 - What Happens If...? 47:43 - Coming Attractions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4EaxzOPEWc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: 2026 Market Outlook Based On Valuations https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2026-market-outlook-based-on-valuations/ "Fed's Soft Landing Narrative Meets Economic Data" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/feds-soft-landing-narrative-meets-economic-data/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Too Soon for Santa?," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EFSU2vZeFE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "What Great Financial Planning Looks Like," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhVoQc7adgU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SantaClausRally #MarketOutlook #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement #MarketTrends #FederalReserve #MarketOutlook #EconomicData #InvestingRisk #StockMarket

Markets are doing what they often do this time of year—attempting to stabilize and rally amid choppy trading. While some are already declaring that the Santa Claus Rally is "dead," history suggests patience is warranted. The official Santa Rally window hasn't even begun yet, and statistically, the odds still favor a year-end lift. Lance Roberts breaks down why recent pullbacks below key moving averages triggered algorithmic selling—and why disciplined investors avoid knee-jerk reactions. With markets rebounding above short-term technical levels and consolidating gains from earlier in the year, the bigger takeaway is this: how you managed risk mattered far more than what you owned. As we head toward year-end and look into next year, remember—markets rotate, leadership changes, and yesterday's winners are rarely tomorrow's. Stay patient, stay disciplined, and stay focused on risk management. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EFSU2vZeFE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: 2026 Market Outlook Based On Valuations https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2026-market-outlook-based-on-valuations/ ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SantaClausRally #MarketOutlook #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement #MarketTrends