The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets may still enjoy short-term momentum, but long-term retirement planning must confront a different reality: elevated valuations, lower forward returns, and rising sequence-of-returns risk. Richard Rosso explains why retirees face a near-term tailwind in market returns—but potentially long-term secular stagnation that demands tighter portfolio guardrails. Drawing on research from Michael Kitces and Wade D. Pfau, we discuss why historically tested retirement income strategies matter more today than at any point in the last two decades. Rich breaks down: Why short-term market strength can be dangerous for new retirees How sequence-of-returns risk dominates the first 10–15 years of retirement Why portfolios need rules and guardrails, not static allocations How retirees over the last 3–5 years should consider "goal scooping" after strong market gains Why taxes still materially affect retirement income sustainability How to mentally and emotionally prepare for inevitable market volatility At RIA, we use valuation-based planning, forward-return assumptions, and behavioral coaching to help retirees avoid forced selling, manage withdrawals, and maintain confidence through changing market cycles. Retirement is not static—and neither is risk. This is about preparing before markets test your plan. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Managing Retirement Income when Markets are Expensive 2:21 - Time Correction of Markets 3:59 - When Valuations Matter 5:52 - Being Prepared for Stagnation 15:04 - How to Battle Stagnation in Retirement 18:37 - Goal Scooping for Retirees 20:51 - Making Sure of Guaranteed Income 24:32 - Determining Personal Rate of Return Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/5MX3c-VM-n0?feature=share ------- Watch our previous show, "1-29-26 Market Risks Behind Powell's "Nonrestrictive" Stance," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vX2vPQQp28 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Stall at 7,000: Breakout or Bull Trap?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meTHta-tC1o&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #RetirementIncome #MarketValuations #SequenceOfReturns #FinancialPlanning

The Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady, keeping policy in a 3.5%–3.75% range. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine how markets are reacting to Chair Jerome Powell's message, and break down what the Fed is signaling—and why it could fuel market volatility ahead. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Mega Reports & Fed Fallout 4:31 - Markets Struggle after 7,000 9:33 - Inflation, Truflation, & Labor 14:14 - Chances of Rate Changes Higher or Lower? 16:44 - Current Growth Spurt is Unsustainable 19:10 - No Mention of QT/QE 21:10 - Citadel Securities; Risk-on Indicator 23:14 - Margin Debt is Bullish for Markets 26:13 - Liquidity Shifts & Fed Watching 29:15 - Geopolitics, Mid-term Elections & Potential Gov't Shutdown 31:42 - Why Fed Policy Matters 34:02 - Are We In an AI Bubble 35:53 - Favorite Search Engine Rankings - Then & Now 38:23 - The AI Boom vs the Dot-com Bubble Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vX2vPQQp28 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "AI Bubble: History Says Caution Is Warranted" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/ai-bubble-history-says-caution-is-warranted/ ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday, the YouTube Chatroom Free-for-all," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLaWDc-IGAw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Stall at 7,000: Breakout or Bull Trap?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meTHta-tC1o&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement #MarketSpeculation #InvestorDiscipline #FederalReserve #JeromePowell #InterestRates #MarketOutlook #MonetaryPolicy

Markets are testing the psychologically important 7,000 level—a major round-number threshold for investors. Momentum is turning back to a buy signal, and with no historical resistance above this level, a breakout could open the door toward the Fibonacci extension near 7,100. However, rising speculation and a sharp increase in margin debt signal growing leverage across markets—from equities to metals and miners. While this added leverage can push prices higher in the short term, it also raises downside risk if trades begin to unwind. With bullish trends intact but speculation elevated, disciplined investors should focus on risk management: taking profits, rebalancing portfolios, and preparing for the inevitable market rotation or correction. When momentum shifts, capital often flows quickly toward oversold and neglected areas—leaving late chasers exposed. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meTHta-tC1o&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement #MarketSpeculation #InvestorDiscipline

Welcome to Q&A Wednesday: The YouTube Chat Free-for-All — our most interactive show of the week. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff answer real-time questions straight from the YouTube live chat. No scripts. No pre-selected topics. Just timely, unfiltered discussion on the issues investors are wrestling with right now. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Major Mega Cap Earnings After the Bell Today 3:27 - Re-setting the Doomsday Clock 5:59 - Markets Set (Another) All-time High 11:31 - Metals as Assets - Where Are Retail Investors Piling In? 21:14 - Commodities are Just an Asset 22:33 - Dollar's Decline & Relative Strength 25:16 - Should You Pay Off Your Mortgage? 29:00 - Tokenization of Real Estate Holdings 33:27 - Roth Conversions Ahead of Higher Taxes 35:04 - How Does an Economy Work in an AI Environment 36:08 - Buying Houses for $500 Down 36:58 - Private Lending Fund? NO. 39:33 - Do Not Sell Gold to Buy a Porsche 40:38 - Take Risk, Retire Young? 44:44 - When is the proper time to rebalance portfolio? 45:54 - Risk vs Volatility 48:23 - CME Raising Silver Margin Requirements 50:17 - What Are Allocations in All-Weather Portfolio? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLaWDc-IGAw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Watch our previous show, "Work Sucks...or Does It?," here: https://www.youtube.com/live/ziEdWYE1VwQ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Big Tech Drives Market Highs" is here: https://youtu.be/ut624yuAvDg ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #MarketRisk #SP500 #EarningsSeason #PortfolioManagement #QAWednesday #InvestorQuestions #MarketVolatility #FinancialEducation #RiskManagement

Markets finished Tuesday at fresh all-time highs as leadership rotated back into mega-cap stocks. After a strong run in small- and mid-caps, those areas are now short-term overbought and nearing sell signals, while the S&P 500 itself is triggering a buy signal at more favorable levels. Earnings expectations are elevated, and upside surprises from mega-cap technology are largely priced in. The market's reaction will hinge less on reported results and more on forward guidance—particularly outlooks for data center and AI-driven capital expenditures. With futures higher this morning, markets appear positioned for another strong open. However, leadership remains narrow, and the ongoing bifurcation between mega-cap growth and the rest of the market continues to warrant close attention to portfolio risk and positioning. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/ut624yuAvDg --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #MarketRisk #SP500 #EarningsSeason #PortfolioManagement