The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande sit down with ESPN’s Paul Finebaum and dive into Alabama football.
Finebaum shares his perspective on Bear Bryant’s complicated legacy and the integration of Alabama football, explains why Nick Saban succeeded where so many post-Bryant coaches failed, and reveals how Saban established total control over the program from the moment he arrived in Tuscaloosa.

Plus, Finebaum offers a warning about Alabama’s future.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Eight Tuesdays out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on the first midterm convention in modern American history — two nights at Dallas's American Airlines Center with 109 speakers, Trump appearing both nights, and House members getting billed $25,000 to attend. The guys are skeptical of nearly all of it: the event lands on NFL kickoff night, it butts up against the 25th anniversary of September 11th, and Politico found 45 of 70 Republican candidates and members skipping it. Their sharper point is that the whole thing is a microcosm of the party's bind — you cannot win without the MAGA base, and you cannot win with only the MAGA base — which is why swing-state nominees like Jon Husted and Mike Rogers will show up and try very hard to deliver a forgettable speech. Chuck argues nationalizing the election isn't crazy on its own terms, since the other side is going to run against Trump anyway, but doubts Trump can hit any register besides red meat, and doubts even more that he can find a second gear for the September 11th anniversary the following day.
From there they dig into Texas, where MAGA Inc's first $10 million buy is running a half-negative, half-positive ad about taxes — a signal, Chuck says, that they know the target is suburban Romney Republicans, not the base. He walks through Greg Abbott's steadily declining margins, the four-to-eight-point scandal penalty that history says attaches to a candidate like Paxton, and lands somewhere that surprises Chris: he now likes Talarico's odds better than Sherrod Brown's in Ohio. They check the prediction markets, unpack the Missouri Supreme Court ruling that blocked the Republican-drawn map and effectively hands Emanuel Cleaver his seat back, and take apart Trump's request that the Supreme Court impose a national check on mail voting — a policy every Republican strategist will tell you privately hurts their own side. Then a long, unsparing conversation about the Wall Street Journal's reporting on John Fetterman and what it means for control of the Senate on January 3rd, a real case for a third Senate conference built around Murkowski and a possible independent, and a closing riff on Nick Saban, Pat McAfee, and why the Protect College Sports Act is doomed without collective bargaining.

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Eight Tuesdays out — and why they actually prepare for these now
03:00 The first midterm convention since the early '80s
04:00 $25,000 a head, and Tim Burchett's surprise invoice
05:00 It lands on the opening night of the NFL season
07:00 The Trump trap — you can't afford to say no
08:00 Nationalizing the election isn't the crazy part
11:00 The convention as a microcosm of the GOP's whole problem
13:00 "Trumpapalooza" — so what's the actual message?
14:00 Conventions aren't for swing voters, and never have been
16:00 Husted, Rogers & the art of the deliberately forgettable speech
19:00 Trump as TV producer — and the 9/11 anniversary the next day
20:00 Will he turn the 25th anniversary into a political speech?
23:00 MAGA Inc's first $10M buy lands in Texas
26:00 They tried calling Talarico weird. It didn't take.
27:00 Trump throws Paxton under the bus in the Oval
29:00 Abbott's slipping margins and the blue tsunami scenario
31:00 South Texas Latinos appear to be shifting back
33:00 Clinton lost Texas by less than she lost Iowa in 2016
34:00 Blue-collar trade unions and the industrial Midwest problem
38:00 Trump asks the Supreme Court for a national mail-voting check
39:00 The rural voters his own rule would punish hardest
42:00 Democrats at 85-88% to take the House
43:00 The Missouri ruling
46:00 Why this is anti-voter, full stop
47:00 The Senate sits at 52-48 Republican. A year ago it was 71-29.
49:00 Alaska, and Dan Sullivan's troubling primary numbers
51:00 The Wall Street Journal's Fetterman story
54:00 The practical stakes: who controls the Senate on January 3rd
55:00 Does Fetterman leave the party?
58:00 He's already built the intellectual case for walking
1:00:00 January 3rd is the whole ballgame
1:02:00 Osborn, Bodner, Banks and the independent wave
1:03:00 The real case for a third Senate conference
1:05:00 Saban and McAfee push the Protect College Sports Act
1:07:00 No labor at the table means it dies in court
1:08:00 Ashley Moody's quiet ACC poison pill
1:12:00 The Nats chase the blown-save record. Sell the team.
1:13:00 Dynastic: Finebaum on why Alabama may not run it back
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bruce Mehlman — founding partner of the bipartisan Mehlman Consulting and the man behind the quarterly slide decks that circulate through half of official Washington — joins the Chuck Toddcast to assess a bifurcated economy and the bills coming due. Millennials are wealthier than their parents were at this age but far more stressed, housing is inflated by a supply shortage, and the central question hanging over everything is whether AI pays off before the investment bill comes due. Mehlman notes the dot-com bubble produced real productivity gains and still burst, and the harder worry isn't the bust itself but whether it arrives at a moment when government can't respond: the national debt has doubled from $20 trillion to $40 trillion in a decade, the Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032, and there's no political courage to touch any of it — because in a system where bipartisanship reads as betrayal, nothing gets done. His modest starting point: a 3% tax increase paired with a 3% spending cut.
The back half turns to how business is bracing for a Democratic Congress. Mehlman says the business community knows the pendulum always swings, and an epic wave of oversight is coming — complicated by an OLC position that executive privilege extends to anyone who speaks with Trump, meaning everything gets litigated to the Supreme Court while companies weigh the risk of contempt. On Trump's pay-to-play demands, he argues there are usually paths to alignment without selling your soul, and notes wealthy individuals now carry more political punching power than corporations do. He's especially sharp on data centers, where polling shows tech, AI, and social media all deeply underwater and the backlash is "where Bannon meets Bernie" — the perception being that AI benefits only billionaires and shareholders. The fix is making local benefits visible, and finding a communicator who isn't a CEO, since tech executives are now viewed as villains. His prediction: the House flips and the Senate lands 50-50 — with Michigan the most interesting race on the board, because an El-Sayed win keeps DSA energy alive and makes AOC the 2028 frontrunner.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Bruce Mehlman joins The Chuck ToddCast
02:15 Assessing the bifurcated economy
02:45 Millennials are wealthier than their parents — and more stressed
04:15 We need AI to pay off before the investment bill comes due
05:45 Is the AI bubble the railroads or the dot com boom?
09:00 Could the bust come when government can't respond?
10:00 From $20T to $40T in national debt in ten years
12:15 Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032
13:30 If bipartisanship is seen as betrayal, nothing gets done
15:15 A 3% tax increase and 3% spending cut would be a start
17:00 How is the business community preparing for a Democratic Congress?
18:45 An epic amount of oversight is coming
19:45 OLC claims executive privilege covers anyone who talks to Trump
22:15 Companies won't risk contempt of Congress
24:30 Advising clients on Trump's pay-to-play demands
26:30 There are paths to alignment without selling your soul
28:45 We need reforms to get out of this Gilded Age
31:00 How should big tech make the case for data centers?
34:00 Voters are open to data centers if harms are mitigated
37:00 Tech CEOs are viewed as villains by the public
39:00 The data center backlash is where Bannon meets Bernie
42:15 Is there anyone in Silicon Valley who can sell this?
49:15 What Walmart got right about storytelling
50:30 Prediction: the House flips and the Senate goes 50-50
53:00 If it's 50-50 and Alaska flips… what does Murkowski do?
54:30 Michigan is the most interesting race on the board
56:30 The bull case for James Talarico is Roy Moore in Alabama
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk.
He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction
03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day
04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult
06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big
07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami?
08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance
09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats
11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat
12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started
14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors
15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans
16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates
18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018
19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance
21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election
23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out?
25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise
27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent
29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem
31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering?
33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance
34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable
36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through
37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument
38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off
41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami
42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents?
46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out
49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman
50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027?
52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on?
52:45 College football week one recap
1:15:00 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974
1:15:30 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake
1:16:15 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon
1:17:00 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law?
1:17:45 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support
1:18:45 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew
1:19:30 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over
1:21:00 Why did Ford get to decide how much accountability we received
1:22:00 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it
1:22:45 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon
1:24:30 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost?
1:26:00 The alternative paths Ford could have taken
1:27:30 Ford didn’t intend for investigations of others to stop
1:29:30 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed
1:31:00 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon
1:34:00 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon
1:35:30 Major backlash to the pardon
1:36:00 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing
1:40:30 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents
1:43:30 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last
1:43:45 Ask Chuck
1:44:00 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year?
1:48:15 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests?
1:53:15 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular?
1:58:00 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees?
2:01:30 How can Dems break through to working class & right leaning white voters?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk.
He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football.
Then, Bruce Mehlman — founding partner of the bipartisan Mehlman Consulting and the man behind the quarterly slide decks that circulate through half of official Washington — joins the Chuck Toddcast to assess a bifurcated economy and the bills coming due. Millennials are wealthier than their parents were at this age but far more stressed, housing is inflated by a supply shortage, and the central question hanging over everything is whether AI pays off before the investment bill comes due. Mehlman notes the dot-com bubble produced real productivity gains and still burst, and the harder worry isn't the bust itself but whether it arrives at a moment when government can't respond.
The back half turns to how business is bracing for a Democratic Congress. Mehlman says the business community knows the pendulum always swings, and an epic wave of oversight is coming — complicated by an OLC position that executive privilege extends to anyone who speaks with Trump, meaning everything gets litigated to the Supreme Court while companies weigh the risk of contempt. On Trump's pay-to-play demands, he argues there are usually paths to alignment without selling your soul, and notes wealthy individuals now carry more political punching power than corporations do. He's especially sharp on data centers, where polling shows tech, AI, and social media all deeply underwater and the backlash is "where Bannon meets Bernie" — the perception being that AI benefits only billionaires and shareholders. His prediction: the House flips and the Senate lands 50-50 — with Michigan the most interesting race on the board, because an El-Sayed win keeps DSA energy alive and makes AOC the 2028 frontrunner.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact

Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction
03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day
04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult
06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big
07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami?
08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance
09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats
11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat
12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started
14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors
15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans
16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates
18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018
19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance
21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election
23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out?
25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise
27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent
29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem
31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering?
33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance
34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable
36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through
37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument
38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off
41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami
42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents?
46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out
49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman
50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027?
52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on?
52:45 College football week one recap
1:16:30 Bruce Mehlman joins The Chuck ToddCast
1:18:45 Assessing the bifurcated economy
1:19:15 Millennials are wealthier than their parents — and more stressed
1:20:45 We need AI to pay off before the investment bill comes due
1:22:15 Is the AI bubble the railroads or the dot com boom?
1:25:30 Could the bust come when government can't respond?
1:26:30 From $20T to $40T in national debt in ten years
1:28:45 Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032
1:30:00 If bipartisanship is seen as betrayal, nothing gets done
1:31:45 A 3% tax increase and 3% spending cut would be a start
1:33:30 How is the business community preparing for a Democratic Congress?
1:35:15 An epic amount of oversight is coming
1:36:15 OLC claims executive privilege covers anyone who talks to Trump
1:38:45 Companies won't risk contempt of Congress
1:41:00 Advising clients on Trump's pay-to-play demands
1:43:00 There are paths to alignment without selling your soul
1:45:15 We need reforms to get out of this Gilded Age
1:47:30 How should big tech make the case for data centers?
1:50:30 Voters are open to data centers if harms are mitigated
1:53:30 Tech CEOs are viewed as villains by the public
1:55:30 The data center backlash is where Bannon meets Bernie
1:58:45 Is there anyone in Silicon Valley who can sell this?
2:05:45 What Walmart got right about storytelling
2:07:00 Prediction: the House flips and the Senate goes 50-50
2:09:30 If it's 50-50 and Alaska flips… what does Murkowski do?
2:11:00 Michigan is the most interesting race on the board
2:13:00 The bull case for James Talarico is Roy Moore in Alabama
2:16:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974
2:17:00 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake
2:17:45 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon
2:18:30 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law?
2:19:15 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support
2:20:15 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew
2:21:00 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over
2:23:30 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it
2:24:15 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon
2:26:00 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost?
2:27:30 The alternative paths Ford could have taken
2:31:00 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed
2:32:30 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon
2:35:30 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon
2:37:00 Major backlash to the pardon
2:37:30 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing
2:42:00 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents
2:45:00 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last
2:45:15 Ask Chuck
2:45:30 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year?
2:49:45 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests?
2:54:45 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular?
2:59:30 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees?
3:03:00 How can Dems break through to working class & right leaning white voters?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.