The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande pick up in Part 2 of Alabama football with Bear Bryant’s final chapter and follow the Crimson Tide through decades of dominance, decline and an eventual return to the top.
They explore Alabama’s complicated integration story, Bryant’s reinvention of the program with the wishbone offense, and the championships that cemented his place as a college football icon. Then, after Bryant’s death, Alabama begins a turbulent search for the coach who could live up to the impossible standard he left behind.
That journey eventually leads to Nick Saban. From the Drew Brees decision that could have changed Saban’s future to the philosophy he developed alongside Bill Belichick, the arrival of Lane Kiffin and the offensive transformation that extended Alabama’s dynasty, Chuck and J.R. break down how Saban built the defining college football program of the modern era.
Plus, the Kick Six, the legendary 1992 championship team, Alabama’s greatest players and coaches, and the difficult question facing the Crimson Tide today: What happens after a legend leaves?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After last week's Democratic field audit, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza turn to the 2028 Republicans — and find a race the markets treat as a two-man affair between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, and one that Chuck thinks is far softer than that looks. His case: no sitting vice president has been denied his party's nomination in the modern era, but Vance sits below 50% in the markets and may be the weakest heir apparent in either man's lifetime, a candidate who has never won anything without Trump carrying him. They dig into why Rubio has kept his hands remarkably clean on the Iran debacle while Vance has ended up owning it, and why Chuck thinks Rubio takes a break, makes money, and waits for 2032. From there they build out the rest of the field: the near-certainty of a Trump family candidate, Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the likeliest VP pick, Joe Lombardo as the pragmatist the party should be building around, Nikki Haley's underrated path, why Tucker Carlson's contrarianism has no Buchanan-style through line, the class of cabinet officials convinced they can do this — and a genuine, surprising case for Rand Paul as the one candidate who could credibly run against Trump's tariffs and Iran war without being an anti-Trumper.
The second half is a brutal accounting of Trump's August. With Canada moving to retaliate after the administration began enforcing 50% tariffs on a slate of Canadian goods and Mark Carney declaring his country "at war," and a temporary waiver on tariffs for 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef drawing pushback from ranchers, Chuck argues Trump has become the single most effective partner Chuck Schumer has — turning Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota into live races and making life impossible for Collins, Rogers, Hinson, and Husted. They walk through the Arkansas poll showing Tom Cotton in a real race, why they think Republicans have already wasted their financial advantage, and Trump's insistence he deserves a perfect grade on the economy. Then they preview Tuesday's high-stakes South Carolina runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman — a race Trump has personally invested in, with a striking stat about appointed senators in the South — before closing on the Nats' collapse and a hard look at how the front office handled CJ Abrams.
Timeline:
00:00 Last week was the Democrats — today it's the 2028 Republican field
00:40 The markets read it as a two-man race: Vance 47%, Rubio 20%
00:57 Who else clears 3%: Tucker, Trump Sr., DeSantis, Don Jr.
01:35 History says the sitting VP gets it
02:51 Vance reminds Chuck of Kamala Harris
03:19 A frontrunner with no positive track record to point to
04:05 Vance probably isn't even a senator without Trump
04:51 How much of Vance's weakness is actually Trump's decline?
06:26 If Trump loses the House and Senate, the field blows open
07:28 Why a Trump family candidacy isn't a 0% proposition
08:03 Ivanka as heir apparent? The Don Jr. vs. Eric assumption
08:44 Rubio: does he run, or take the VP slot?
10:07 Hegseth as McNamara, and Vance owning a war he questioned
10:48 How has Rubio kept his hands this clean?
12:42 The one cabinet member with no visible pay-for-play story
13:13 Chuck's prediction: Rubio sits it out, runs in 2032
14:21 Who else? A Hawley or Cotton as Trumpism 2.0
14:48 Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the most likely VP pick
15:24 Youngkin's problem, and the Huntsman-Kasich empathy lane
16:17 Spencer Cox and the never-Trump ceiling
17:59 How the war with Canada gutted the Las Vegas economy
19:30 Can a Jim Banks run against Vance?
20:42 Brian Kemp passed on the Senate to look at 2028
21:24 What do Republican primary voters even want after a wipeout?
22:11 Are we underwriting Nikki Haley?
23:45 What to make of Tucker Carlson's ten-point plan
25:37 MTG, Massie & the America First lane
27:12 Why Never Trumpers overrate his constituency
28:40 The cabinet members who all think they'll be president
30:09 The Portnoy/Cuban outsider slot
31:19 The one advantage — Vance runs the RNC's fundraising operation
34:06 The real problem for Rand Paul: he isn't likable
35:02 Tariffs and Iran — Trump's two great failures, and Paul opposed both
36:27 Under 1% on the board: the dark-horse buy
36:51 To Trump: a trade war with Canada, and more sanctions on Iran
38:20 The beef decision and what it does to midwest states
39:05 Why the Canada fight hits Vegas and Orlando hardest
40:21 Has Trump found a floor lower than Bush's?
41:41 The Arkansas poll putting Tom Cotton in a real race
42:03 Reading the methodology honestly
43:18 Donald Trump has declared war on rural America
44:55 Trump says he deserves 100% on the economy
46:22 Republicans wasted their financial advantage
47:59 Tuesday night preview: the Graham-Norman runoff
48:40 Trump calls in, rallies in Myrtle Beach t
50:16 Appointed senators survive at 44% in the South vs. 81% elsewhere
52:26 Trump's endorsement record & why he wants to reassert dominance
53:27 What a Graham loss would mean for Hinson and Husted
54:41 Why Collins doesn't want Trump in Maine
57:02 Vance as a cipher — from near-primary-loss to vice president
59:37 What has JD Vance actually done?
1:00:45 The Nats get swept by the Marlins
1:05:04 How you actually screw up a team
1:06:23 Where this front office is genuinely excellent
1:07:48 It's still a people business, just like politics
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks, where Mark Carney walked away after last-minute American demands — chiefly on mid- and heavy-duty truck tariffs — and declared the U.S. can't be trusted as a partner. Asked about the tone of his remarks, Carney's answer was blunt: you are at war when you get attacked. Chuck notes the whole western world is quietly cheering him on even as individual European leaders push back while the EU took its deal, and argues the real problem is that this administration isn't negotiating with one voice. The fallout lands squarely on Senate battlegrounds, forcing Susan Collins to speak out against her own party's trade war. Then there's beef: Trump's move to let in 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef drew immediate fire from cattle groups and Republicans including Ashley Hinson and Tim Sheehy, and Chuck argues it's a tacit admission that the tariff regime is raising prices. Battleground states account for two-thirds of American cattle ranching, Iowa becomes the bellwether, and Trump is single-handedly making safe races competitive — while Scott Bessent defends the indefensible, calling tariff refunds corporate welfare and arguing the country needs fewer jobs because of deportations, all as the national debt clears $40 trillion.
Then Chuck highlights that polling between July 4th and Labor Day is largely wasted money, the August electorate isn't the November electorate, polling has gotten cheaper and worse, and polling averages deserve real skepticism. Arkansas is the case study — five Senate polls, four poorly done, and the one that got everyone's attention showing Tom Cotton in trouble had bad methodology. Chuck’s landing: don't buy the poll, but Cotton may be in some trouble anyway, because he's an old-school hawk who championed war with Iran in a state where Trump commands more personal loyalty than he does. He won't lose, but the margin could surprise. Chuck also flags red flags in Byron Donalds' northern Florida margins, argues the USS Abraham Lincoln reporting exposed a credibility crisis at a Pentagon where Hegseth treats accurate reporting as a personal threat, and warns it'll take decades for either the Pentagon or DOJ to recover. Plus: an NRSC memo declaring data center politics toxic, Mike Rogers keeping AIPAC out of Michigan while El-Sayed argues outside money shouldn't buy the state's politics, and Hakeem Jeffries meeting privately with Jared Kushner — which Chuck defends outright, because communication isn't betrayal even when the base wants confrontation. He closes on the question underneath the ToddCast's Lakers special report: with private credit over $1.5 trillion and life insurers holding roughly $900 billion of it, is Mark Walter an outlier or the canary in the coal mine? Chuck’s answer is that he isn't an outlier at all — this is how the machine works now, in a corner of finance where no single regulator can see the whole picture and where the real worry may be inflated valuations.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Harry Truman nationalizing the railroad system… and why emergency presidential powers need to be taken back by congress. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
03:00 Noosphere interview this week is on China shock 2.0
05:00 Dynastic this week is on Alabama football
07:00 A couple shout outs from Chuck
11:00 Trade talks between U.S. and Canada collapse
11:30 Mark Carney says the US can’t be trusted as a partner
12:30 Carney says U.S. fired the first shot in trade war with Canada
13:45 Carney doesn’t want Canada subservient to U.S. & will diversify
15:00 European leaders are individually pushing back, but EU took the deal
16:00 The whole western world is cheering on Mark Carney
18:00 We were close to a trade deal, then U.S. added new demands
19:00 Howard Lutnick got involved and created new problems
20:15 The Trump administration isn’t negotiating with one voice
21:15 All the senate battleground races are impacted by Canada trade war
22:30 These aren’t trivial trade relationships with Canada
23:00 Susan Collins is being forced to speak out against trade war
24:30 Trump is now creating a fight with the beef & cattle industry
25:15 Importing cheap foreign beef is admission tariff regime hurts consumers
26:00 Trump will hurt American cattle producers by importing beef
26:45 Battleground states account for 2/3rds of cattle ranching
27:45 This could make uncompetitive elections very competitive
28:15 Iowa will be the bellwether for Trump’s policies impacting ag states
29:15 Trump is actively hurting Republicans in ag heavy states
30:00 Scott Bessent is forced to say the stupidest things to defend Trump
30:30 Bessent is now saying tariff refunds are corporate welfare
31:30 Bessent says we don’t need as many jobs due to deportations
32:15 Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market prior to midterms
33:15 National debt surpassed 40 trillion dollars, both sides point fingers
34:00 We’re going to have to deal with the debt sooner rather than later
35:00 It’s a waste of money to poll between July 4th and Labor Day
35:45 The electorate in August isn’t the same as the electorate in November
37:00 Polling has gotten cheaper… and worse
38:00 Be wary of indiscriminate polling averages
40:00 Arkansas has had 5 senate polls and 4 were poorly done
41:00 Arkansas poll got everyone’s attention, showed Cotton in trouble
42:30 The methodology of the poll was bad & limited
43:45 Don’t buy the poll, but Tom Cotton actually may be in trouble
44:30 Cotton is an old-school hawk, a champion of war with Iran
45:00 Trump has more personal loyalty in Arkansas than Cotton
45:45 Cotton won’t lose, but the margin may be surprisingly close
47:15 Examination of Bryon Donald's margins showed red flags
47:45 Donalds didn’t perform well in northern Florida counties
48:30 Base voters were motivated enough to go vote against him
49:00 USS Abraham Lincoln has revealed a credibility problem with DoD
49:30 Stars & Stripes was created to give troops access to independent info
50:00 Hegseth viewed accurate reporting as a threat to himself
50:30 Hegseth more worried about a presidential run than the troops
51:15 Can’t trust either the Justice Department or the Pentagon
52:00 It will take decades for either institution to regain credibility
53:30 NRSC put out memo saying data center politics are toxic
54:15 Messaging is to “let communities decide”
54:45 Data centers are the beginning of backlash against tech & AI
55:30 Mark Zuckerberg is only tech CEO who understands the backlash
56:00 Mike Rodgers doesn’t want AIPAC publicly involved in Michigan race
56:45 El-Sayed’s argument is outside interests shouldn’t purchase MI politics
57:30 Plenty of American jews support Israel, but not Netanyahu’s government
58:30 Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Jared Kushner
59:00 This meeting shows the Trump WH preparing for Speaker Jeffries
59:30 Jeffries in impossible position, base wants confrontation with Trump
1:00:30 Jeffries and Kushner SHOULD be talking, communication isn’t betrayal
1:01:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier, or the canary in the coal mine?
1:02:15 After financial crisis, government cracked down on banks
1:02:45 US private credit is now over $1.5 trillion dollar
1:03:30 Life insurance companies have become banks for the ultra wealthy
1:04:30 LIfe insurance companies can operate very differently
1:05:45 You can’t just pull your money out of a life insurance company
1:07:00 The incentives between investment firm & policyholder may not align
1:08:15 Life insurance companies hold $900B in private credit debt
1:08:45 Mark Walter isn’t an outlier, this is how the machine works
1:09:30 If a life insurance company fails, your money can be frozen
1:10:30 There are caps on policyholder protection
1:11:00 Executive Life failed when the junk bond market crashed
1:11:45 Executive Life bonds were bought by Leon Black, who founded Apollo
1:12:15 Insurance isn’t regulated by one agency, it’s multiple agencies and states
1:13:30 Regulators can’t get the picture of the entire machine, just pieces of it
1:14:15 Finance regulators have been siloed off from each other
1:15:45 The real worry here could be inflated valuations
1:20:00 ToddCast Time Machine - 1950, Truman seizes the nation’s railroads
1:20:45 Private rail was the primary transportation system at the time
1:21:15 Congress had given the president the tool to do this
1:22:00 The authority was used during WW1 and WW2
1:22:30 Truman wanted to draft striking rail workers into the military
1:23:00 The strike was settled while Truman was addressing congress
1:23:30 Railroad seizure became routine in the Truman administration
1:24:30 Truman decided country couldn’t risk rail strike during Korean War
1:25:45 Truman’s authority was never really challenged
1:26:15 The rail workers unions couldn’t stop workers from walking off the job
1:27:00 In April 1952 steelworkers were threatening to strike
1:28:30 Steel industry sued Truman and won after he tried to seize it
1:29:00 Rail seizure power was granted by congress, not for steel
1:30:45 Future presidents tried to use this same authority, didn’t always work
1:31:15 Congress needs to take back emergency powers after granting them
1:32:45 Could a future president try to use this power to seize the AI industry?
1:34:30 The lesson is how presidents accumulate power over time
1:35:15 Ask Chuck
1:35:30 Parallels between Natalie Harp and Isabel Lyon?
1:39:45 What gives you pause about Mark Kelly as a candidate?
1:43:30 Could a Democratic wave election change smaller local politics?
1:46:15 What is motivating Darline Graham to run for a full term?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Ohio Governor and presidential candidate John Kasich joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that keeps returning to one uncomfortable diagnosis: Americans say they want the political middle and then retreat to their partisan corners the moment it counts. Kasich's read on this cycle is bracing coming from a Republican — the democratic socialists are talking about things voters actually care about, while moderate Democrats have stayed conspicuously quiet, which is exactly why the left has struck a nerve. On the data center backlash, Kasich has a straightforward answer — make them provide their own power — and points out that Ohio ratepayers are already footing higher bills for facilities located in Virginia. He's blunt that politicians are beholden to special interests before they're even sworn in, supports public financing of elections, and warns that neither the center-right nor center-left is producing genuinely interesting solutions to anything, least of all a national debt he says is going to hurt everybody if it isn't addressed.
Kasich also addresses recent concerns with the Pentagon, where he brings real budget-committee experience to a question few politicians take seriously: what exactly are we getting for a defense budget this size? He argues Pentagon leadership is deeply resistant to change, that America isn't developing new systems and technology well, that only about 1% of defense dollars go toward new systems, and that we simply don't need this many nuclear weapons — one alone, as he puts it, will ruin your day. He uses the B-2 bomber, built with parts manufactured across a strategically chosen array of states, to explain why reform is so brutally hard, while insisting it remains possible with the right political leadership. From there the conversation widens into Kasich's argument that moderates have historically been the bulwark against the extremes, that outside forces are often what actually force change , and that people outside both parties are about to turn hard on the tech companies. He wonders aloud whether a backlash to private equity could become a genuine threat to capitalism itself — pointing to private equity buying up youth sports to raise prices, and to firms that can effectively choose which regulators they deal with. Kasich closes with Ohio: whether the state is genuinely purple again or just having a bad Republican year, why he thinks it drifts back toward swing status over time, why the Senate race is too close to call, and whether Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy faces the harder barrier to winning the governorship.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 John Kasich joins the Chuck ToddCast
02:15 People say they want the middle, then retreat to partisan corners
03:30 Voters keep rejecting the party in power
05:45 It took six presidential elections to get beyond Lincoln
06:45 Democratic socialists are talking about things voters care about
07:30 Moderate Dems are staying quiet while socialists have struck a nerve
11:00 Rent control doesn’t work, but sounds appealing to voters in NYC
12:00 The healthcare system doesn’t keep us healthy, only treats the sick
13:30 Healthcare and education have atrophied over the years
15:00 Competition drives change in education, teachers union doesn’t want change
16:15 How would you handle the public backlash to data centers and big tech?
16:45 Data centers should be forced to provide their own power
17:15 Customers in Ohio are paying higher rates for data centers in Virginia
18:30 Politicians are beholden to special interests before they’re sworn in
18:45 Support public financing for elections
20:00 The center right & left aren’t coming up with interesting solutions
21:30 If we don’t fix the national debt it’s going to hurt everybody
23:00 What are we getting from our massive military budget?
23:45 Pentagon leaders are highly resistant to change
25:30 We aren’t developing new systems & tech well
26:00 Only 1% of the defense dollars go to new systems
27:00 Don’t need this many nukes, one alone will ruin your day
27:45 Trying to change the Pentagon is incredibly difficult
28:15 B2 bomber was built with parts all manufactured in different states
29:30 It is possible for the Pentagon to be reformed with right political leadership
32:00 Moderates have served as the bulwark against the extremes
32:45 Who are leaders from the past who electrified the country?
35:00 Bill Clinton isn’t a budget balancer without Ross Perot
36:30 Ralph Nader also forced change from the outside
38:00 People outside the parties will start turning on the tech companies
39:45 Could backlash to private equity become a threat to capitalism?
40:15 Private equity is now buying up youth sports to raise prices?
43:15 Ohio went from #47 to #1 by hiring smart business investors
44:45 Private equity can pick the regulators they want to deal with
46:30 Is Ohio purple again or is this just a bad year for Republicans?
47:00 Over time, Ohio will naturally drift back to swing status
48:00 Ohio senate is too close to call
50:30 Harder barrier to break: Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy?
51:45 Ramaswamy will run into friction with Ohio voters due to his race
53:15 Would still bet that Ramaswamy will win
54:30 There’s a formula to what makes a good leader
56:00 Rural communities are being devastated by drugs & homelessness
56:45 There is abject poverty in appalachia
57:45 What young leaders have impressed you in the past couple years?
1:00:15 Predictions for Miami’s upcoming football season
1:02:00 Check out the John Kasich Show on SiriusXM
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks, where Mark Carney walked away after last-minute American demands — chiefly on mid- and heavy-duty truck tariffs — and declared the U.S. can't be trusted as a partner. Asked about the tone of his remarks, Carney's answer was blunt: you are at war when you get attacked. Chuck notes the whole western world is quietly cheering him on even as individual European leaders push back while the EU took its deal, and argues the real problem is that this administration isn't negotiating with one voice. The fallout lands squarely on Senate battlegrounds, forcing Susan Collins to speak out against her own party's trade war. Then there's beef: Trump's move to let in 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef drew immediate fire from cattle groups and Republicans including Ashley Hinson and Tim Sheehy, and Chuck argues it's a tacit admission that the tariff regime is raising prices. Battleground states account for two-thirds of American cattle ranching, Iowa becomes the bellwether, and Trump is single-handedly making safe races competitive — while Scott Bessent defends the indefensible, calling tariff refunds corporate welfare and arguing the country needs fewer jobs because of deportations, all as the national debt clears $40 trillion.
Then Chuck highlights that polling between July 4th and Labor Day is largely wasted money, the August electorate isn't the November electorate, polling has gotten cheaper and worse, and polling averages deserve real skepticism. Arkansas is the case study — five Senate polls, four poorly done, and the one that got everyone's attention showing Tom Cotton in trouble had bad methodology. Chuck’s landing: don't buy the poll, but Cotton may be in some trouble anyway, because he's an old-school hawk who championed war with Iran in a state where Trump commands more personal loyalty than he does. He won't lose, but the margin could surprise. Chuck also flags red flags in Byron Donalds' northern Florida margins, argues the USS Abraham Lincoln reporting exposed a credibility crisis at a Pentagon where Hegseth treats accurate reporting as a personal threat, and warns it'll take decades for either the Pentagon or DOJ to recover. Plus: an NRSC memo declaring data center politics toxic, Mike Rogers keeping AIPAC out of Michigan while El-Sayed argues outside money shouldn't buy the state's politics, and Hakeem Jeffries meeting privately with Jared Kushner — which Chuck defends outright, because communication isn't betrayal even when the base wants confrontation. He closes on the question underneath the ToddCast's Lakers special report: with private credit over $1.5 trillion and life insurers holding roughly $900 billion of it, is Mark Walter an outlier or the canary in the coal mine? Chuck’s answer is that he isn't an outlier at all — this is how the machine works now, in a corner of finance where no single regulator can see the whole picture and where the real worry may be inflated valuations.
Then, former Ohio Governor and presidential candidate John Kasich joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that keeps returning to one uncomfortable diagnosis: Americans say they want the political middle and then retreat to their partisan corners the moment it counts. Kasich's read on this cycle is bracing coming from a Republican — the democratic socialists are talking about things voters actually care about, while moderate Democrats have stayed conspicuously quiet, which is exactly why the left has struck a nerve. On the data center backlash, Kasich has a straightforward answer — make them provide their own power — and points out that Ohio ratepayers are already footing higher bills for facilities located in Virginia. He's blunt that politicians are beholden to special interests before they're even sworn in, supports public financing of elections, and warns that neither the center-right nor center-left is producing genuinely interesting solutions to anything, least of all a national debt he says is going to hurt everybody if it isn't addressed.
Kasich also addresses recent concerns with the Pentagon, where he brings real budget-committee experience to a question few politicians take seriously: what exactly are we getting for a defense budget this size? He argues Pentagon leadership is deeply resistant to change, that America isn't developing new systems and technology well, that only about 1% of defense dollars go toward new systems, and that we simply don't need this many nuclear weapons — one alone, as he puts it, will ruin your day. He uses the B-2 bomber, built with parts manufactured across a strategically chosen array of states, to explain why reform is so brutally hard, while insisting it remains possible with the right political leadership. From there the conversation widens into Kasich's argument that moderates have historically been the bulwark against the extremes, that outside forces are often what actually force change , and that people outside both parties are about to turn hard on the tech companies. He wonders aloud whether a backlash to private equity could become a genuine threat to capitalism itself — pointing to private equity buying up youth sports to raise prices, and to firms that can effectively choose which regulators they deal with. Kasich closes with Ohio: whether the state is genuinely purple again or just having a bad Republican year, why he thinks it drifts back toward swing status over time, why the Senate race is too close to call, and whether Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy faces the harder barrier to winning the governorship.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Harry Truman nationalizing the railroad system… and why emergency presidential powers need to be taken back by congress. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
03:00 Noosphere interview this week is on China shock 2.0
05:00 Dynastic this week is on Alabama football
07:00 A couple shout outs from Chuck
11:00 Trade talks between U.S. and Canada collapse
11:30 Mark Carney says the US can’t be trusted as a partner
12:30 Carney says U.S. fired the first shot in trade war with Canada
13:45 Carney doesn’t want Canada subservient to U.S. & will diversify
15:00 European leaders are individually pushing back, but EU took the deal
16:00 The whole western world is cheering on Mark Carney
18:00 We were close to a trade deal, then U.S. added new demands
19:00 Howard Lutnick got involved and created new problems
20:15 The Trump administration isn’t negotiating with one voice
21:15 All the senate battleground races are impacted by Canada trade war
22:30 These aren’t trivial trade relationships with Canada
23:00 Susan Collins is being forced to speak out against trade war
24:30 Trump is now creating a fight with the beef & cattle industry
25:15 Importing cheap foreign beef is admission tariff regime hurts consumers
26:00 Trump will hurt American cattle producers by importing beef
26:45 Battleground states account for 2/3rds of cattle ranching
27:45 This could make uncompetitive elections very competitive
28:15 Iowa will be the bellwether for Trump’s policies impacting ag states
29:15 Trump is actively hurting Republicans in ag heavy states
30:00 Scott Bessent is forced to say the stupidest things to defend Trump
30:30 Bessent is now saying tariff refunds are corporate welfare
31:30 Bessent says we don’t need as many jobs due to deportations
32:15 Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market prior to midterms
33:15 National debt surpassed 40 trillion dollars, both sides point fingers
34:00 We’re going to have to deal with the debt sooner rather than later
35:00 It’s a waste of money to poll between July 4th and Labor Day
35:45 The electorate in August isn’t the same as the electorate in November
37:00 Polling has gotten cheaper… and worse
38:00 Be wary of indiscriminate polling averages
40:00 Arkansas has had 5 senate polls and 4 were poorly done
41:00 Arkansas poll got everyone’s attention, showed Cotton in trouble
42:30 The methodology of the poll was bad & limited
43:45 Don’t buy the poll, but Tom Cotton actually may be in trouble
44:30 Cotton is an old-school hawk, a champion of war with Iran
45:00 Trump has more personal loyalty in Arkansas than Cotton
45:45 Cotton won’t lose, but the margin may be surprisingly close
47:15 Examination of Bryon Donald's margins showed red flags
47:45 Donalds didn’t perform well in northern Florida counties
48:30 Base voters were motivated enough to go vote against him
49:00 USS Abraham Lincoln has revealed a credibility problem with DoD
49:30 Stars & Stripes was created to give troops access to independent info
50:00 Hegseth viewed accurate reporting as a threat to himself
50:30 Hegseth more worried about a presidential run than the troops
51:15 Can’t trust either the Justice Department or the Pentagon
52:00 It will take decades for either institution to regain credibility
53:30 NRSC put out memo saying data center politics are toxic
54:15 Messaging is to “let communities decide”
54:45 Data centers are the beginning of backlash against tech & AI
55:30 Mark Zuckerberg is only tech CEO who understands the backlash
56:00 Mike Rodgers doesn’t want AIPAC publicly involved in Michigan race
56:45 El-Sayed’s argument is outside interests shouldn’t purchase MI politics
57:30 Plenty of American jews support Israel, but not Netanyahu’s government
58:30 Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Jared Kushner
59:00 This meeting shows the Trump WH preparing for Speaker Jeffries
59:30 Jeffries in impossible position, base wants confrontation with Trump
1:00:30 Jeffries and Kushner SHOULD be talking, communication isn’t betrayal
1:01:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier, or the canary in the coal mine?
1:02:15 After financial crisis, government cracked down on banks
1:02:45 US private credit is now over $1.5 trillion dollar
1:03:30 Life insurance companies have become banks for the ultra wealthy
1:04:30 LIfe insurance companies can operate very differently
1:05:45 You can’t just pull your money out of a life insurance company
1:07:00 The incentives between investment firm & policyholder may not align
1:08:15 Life insurance companies hold $900B in private credit debt
1:08:45 Mark Walter isn’t an outlier, this is how the machine works
1:09:30 If a life insurance company fails, your money can be frozen
1:10:30 There are caps on policyholder protection
1:11:00 Executive Life failed when the junk bond market crashed
1:11:45 Executive Life bonds were bought by Leon Black, who founded Apollo
1:12:15 Insurance isn’t regulated by one agency, it’s multiple agencies and states
1:13:30 Regulators can’t get the picture of the entire machine, just pieces of it
1:14:15 Finance regulators have been siloed off from each other
1:15:45 The real worry here could be inflated valuations
1:21:30 John Kasich joins the Chuck ToddCast
1:23:45 People say they want the middle, then retreat to partisan corners
1:25:00 Voters keep rejecting the party in power
1:27:15 It took six presidential elections to get beyond Lincoln
1:28:15 Democratic socialists are talking about things voters care about
1:29:00 Moderate Dems are staying quiet while socialists have struck a nerve
1:32:30 Rent control doesn’t work, but sounds appealing to voters in NYC
1:33:30 The healthcare system doesn’t keep us healthy, only treats the sick
1:35:00 Healthcare and education have atrophied over the years
1:36:30 Competition drives change in education, teachers union doesn’t want change
1:37:45 How would you handle the public backlash to data centers and big tech?
1:38:15 Data centers should be forced to provide their own power
1:38:45 Customers in Ohio are paying higher rates for data centers in Virginia
1:40:00 Politicians are beholden to special interests before they’re sworn in
1:40:15 Support public financing for elections
1:41:30 The center right & left aren’t coming up with interesting solutions
1:43:00 If we don’t fix the national debt it’s going to hurt everybody
1:44:30 What are we getting from our massive military budget?
1:45:15 Pentagon leaders are highly resistant to change
1:47:00 We aren’t developing new systems & tech well
1:47:30 Only 1% of the defense dollars go to new systems
1:48:30 Don’t need this many nukes, one alone will ruin your day
1:49:15 Trying to change the Pentagon is incredibly difficult
1:49:45 B2 bomber was built with parts all manufactured in different states
1:51:00 It is possible for the Pentagon to be reformed with right political leadership
1:53:30 Moderates have served as the bulwark against the extremes
1:54:15 Who are leaders from the past who electrified the country?
1:56:30 Bill Clinton isn’t a budget balancer without Ross Perot
1:58:00 Ralph Nader also forced change from the outside
1:59:30 People outside the parties will start turning on the tech companies
2:01:15 Could backlash to private equity become a threat to capitalism?
2:01:45 Private equity is now buying up youth sports to raise prices?
2:04:45 Ohio went from #47 to #1 by hiring smart business investors
2:06:15 Private equity can pick the regulators they want to deal with
2:08:00 Is Ohio purple again or is this just a bad year for Republicans?
2:08:30 Over time, Ohio will naturally drift back to swing status
2:09:30 Ohio senate is too close to call
2:12:00 Harder barrier to break: Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy?
2:13:15 Ramaswamy will run into friction with Ohio voters due to his race
2:14:45 Would still bet that Ramaswamy will win
2:16:00 There’s a formula to what makes a good leader
2:17:30 Rural communities are being devastated by drugs & homelessness
2:18:15 There is abject poverty in appalachia
2:19:15 What young leaders have impressed you in the past couple years?
2:21:45 Predictions for Miami’s upcoming football season
2:23:30 Check out the John Kasich Show on SiriusXM
2:25:00 ToddCast Time Machine - 1950, Truman seizes the nation’s railroads
2:25:45 Private rail was the primary transportation system at the time
2:26:15 Congress had given the president the tool to do this
2:27:00 The authority was used during WW1 and WW2
2:27:30 Truman wanted to draft striking rail workers into the military
2:28:00 The strike was settled while Truman was addressing congress
2:28:30 Railroad seizure became routine in the Truman administration
2:29:30 Truman decided country couldn’t risk rail strike during Korean War
2:30:45 Truman’s authority was never really challenged
2:31:15 The rail workers unions couldn’t stop workers from walking off the job
2:32:00 In April 1952 steelworkers were threatening to strike
2:33:30 Steel industry sued Truman and won after he tried to seize it
2:34:00 Rail seizure power was granted by congress, not for steel
2:35:45 Future presidents tried to use this same authority, didn’t always work
2:36:15 Congress needs to take back emergency powers after granting them
2:37:45 Could a future president try to use this power to seize the AI industry?
2:39:30 The lesson is how presidents accumulate power over time
2:40:15 Ask Chuck
2:40:30 Parallels between Natalie Harp and Isabel Lyon?
2:44:45 What gives you pause about Mark Kelly as a candidate?
2:48:30 Could a Democratic wave election change smaller local politics?
2:51:15 What is motivating Darline Graham to run for a full term?
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