The Chuck ToddCast

Political commentator Chris Cillizza — who co-hosted the live Texas primary night coverage with Chuck— rejoins the show to dissect the aftermath of the Texas results and the broader 2026 landscape. With Jasmine Crockett having conceded to James Talarico and the Paxton-Cornyn race headed to a runoff that's essentially a coin flip, Todd and Cillizza dig into what Talarico's victory really means: he dominated in counties Bernie Sanders won, Latino voters broke decisively his way, and his ground game should terrify Republicans — but they caution against mistaking someone who is temperamentally moderate and perceived as "nice" for being politically moderate. They argue that Texas Democrats, having lost for so long, were desperate for something new, and that constant losing has made electability matter more than ideology — Democrats had to vote with their heads, not their hearts. They assess Crockett's future (great political athlete, bad campaign infrastructure, potential to compete for Ted Cruz's seat someday), debate whether Democrats should meddle in the GOP runoff to boost Paxton, and note that Talarico’s floor is around 47-48% — meaning Texas is genuinely in play.
The conversation then expands to the national map and the broader forces shaping 2026. They unpack Kamala Harris's late endorsement of Crockett — which came too late to matter and reinforces the same knock Biden got about indecisiveness — and Gavin Newsom's conspicuous shift on Israel in front of a liberal audience. They contrast that with the authenticity of politicians like Bernie Sanders and early-career JD Vance, noting that Vance has now lost his anti-interventionist identity after backing the Iran war while the administration's narrative spinning on the conflict is "an absolute mess." Looking ahead, they agree that the perception of the economy in June will be what drives the midterms, that the war will consume the administration — especially given the embarrassing lack of an evacuation plan for Americans in the Middle East, Trump's biggest critique of Biden — and that prediction markets now give Democrats a 45% chance of winning the Senate. They close by surveying pickup opportunities in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, flagging independent candidates in the Midwest who know they can't win as Democrats, and declaring that 2026 will be the clearest preview yet of how 2028 plays out.

Go to https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chris Cillizza joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:30 Jasmine Crockett concedes race to James Talarico
02:15 Race between Paxton & Cornyn essentially a wash
03:00 Big question is “Can Cornyn get to 50%”
03:45 Public is getting tired with the bomb throwers in politics
05:45 Talarico did well in counties that Bernie Sanders won
06:45 Texas Dems have been losing forever, desperate for “new”
08:30 Don’t mistake politically & temperamentally “moderate”
09:15 Being perceived as “nice” goes a long way
10:30 Online Dems are mad, but many want a change in tone
12:00 If Platner beats Mills by 15, Talarico data point feels like outlier
12:45 Have constant Dem losses in TX made “electability” more important?
13:45 Dems in Texas have to vote with their head and not their heart
15:30 Crockett is a great political athlete with bad campaign infrastructure
16:30 Talarico had a great ground game, should scare Republicans
17:45 Crockett could compete for Ted Cruz’s senate seat
18:30 Unlikely this is the last we hear from Crockett in politics
19:30 Crockett did well where she was well known
20:30 Kamala Harris endorsement came too late for Crockett
21:30 Harris shows herself to be incredibly risk averse
24:15 We’ll get the full story on the late endorsement in six months
25:00 Harris shares the same knock Biden got… can’t make decisions
25:45 Newsom signals shift on Israel in front of a very liberal audience
27:00 Newsom just pandering? Or is it a genuine flip
28:30 Gavin Newsom is a politician to his core
30:00 Newsom looked like he was desperate to find traction
30:30 Trump didn’t change, the moment came to him
31:30 Tariffs are terrible politics, but Trump’s liked them for decades
32:00 Bernie Sanders has been the most authentic politician for years
33:15 Sanders and Ron Paul ended up voting together many times
34:45 Vance lost the anti-interventionist part of his identity after Iran war
36:30 The spinning for a narrative for the war is an absolute mess
38:00 The perception of the economy in June will be what affects midterms
39:15 War will consume the administration
40:00 Administration had no plan to evacuate Americans from middle east
41:00 Trump’s big critique of Biden was the Afghanistan withdrawal
43:30 Prediction markets have Dems chances of winning senate at 45%
46:15 How should Dems try to affect Texas runoff?
48:00 Meddling works and if Cornyn is the nominee Talarico loses
48:30 Talarico’s floor is around 47-48
49:00 How do Dems sort Alaska, Ohio, Texas and Iowa?
50:15 If Josh Turek is the nominee in Iowa, race could be interesting
51:30 2026 will give us a clue as to how 2028 will play out
53:00 If one of the independent candidate wins statewide it’s a BIG deal
55:30 Midwest independent candidates know they can’t run as Dems and win
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a blistering assessment of Trump's Iran war, arguing that the conflict has gone sideways in virtually every way imaginable — and that the lack of consequences for Trump's past norm-breaking gave him a false sense of impunity that led him here. Todd traces the logic: Iran looked like a paper tiger after the limited strikes in 2025, Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant regime insider to step forward — but none of those hopes have materialized. Instead, the forces that wanted to overthrow the regime have gone underground, the CIA is now arming and training Kurds in what Chuck bluntly asks amounts to deliberately triggering a civil war, Iran has inflicted real damage on multiple Gulf states, and stranded Americans were told by the State Department they were on their own because the administration made no evacuation plan whatsoever. He zeroes in on the damning timeline: if the administration had time to move an armada into position, they had time to warn American citizens. He flags that passing a war supplemental will be a brutal vote for GOP members, that JD Vance now has to defend a war antithetical to his entire political identity, and pivots to the Texas runoff noting that James Talarico's biggest vulnerability is being more progressive than his nice-guy persona suggests, but that demeanor may be his superpower in a cycle where voters are exhausted by bomb-throwers.
Political commentator Chris Cillizza — who co-hosted the live Texas primary night coverage with Chuck— rejoins the show to dissect the aftermath of the Texas results and the broader 2026 landscape. With Jasmine Crockett having conceded to James Talarico and the Paxton-Cornyn race headed to a runoff that's essentially a coin flip, Todd and Cillizza dig into what Talarico's victory really means: he dominated in counties Bernie Sanders won, Latino voters broke decisively his way, and his ground game should terrify Republicans — but they caution against mistaking someone who is temperamentally moderate and perceived as "nice" for being politically moderate. They argue that Texas Democrats, having lost for so long, were desperate for something new, and that constant losing has made electability matter more than ideology — Democrats had to vote with their heads, not their hearts. They assess Crockett's future (great political athlete, bad campaign infrastructure, potential to compete for Ted Cruz's seat someday), debate whether Democrats should meddle in the GOP runoff to boost Paxton, and note that Talarico’s floor is around 47-48% — meaning Texas is genuinely in play.
The conversation then expands to the national map and the broader forces shaping 2026. They unpack Kamala Harris's late endorsement of Crockett — which came too late to matter and reinforces the same knock Biden got about indecisiveness — and Gavin Newsom's conspicuous shift on Israel in front of a liberal audience. They contrast that with the authenticity of politicians like Bernie Sanders and early-career JD Vance, noting that Vance has now lost his anti-interventionist identity after backing the Iran war while the administration's narrative spinning on the conflict is "an absolute mess." Looking ahead, they agree that the perception of the economy in June will be what drives the midterms, that the war will consume the administration — especially given the embarrassing lack of an evacuation plan for Americans in the Middle East, Trump's biggest critique of Biden — and that prediction markets now give Democrats a 45% chance of winning the Senate. They close by surveying pickup opportunities in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, flagging independent candidates in the Midwest who know they can't win as Democrats, and declaring that 2026 will be the clearest preview yet of how 2028 plays out.
Finally, he reacts to the breaking news that Montana senator Steve Daines retired minutes before the filing deadline and argues that Republicans will be forced to defend what was a safe seat, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Go to https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:45 Trump’s war with Iran is not going well for him politically
02:30 Multiple countries have been dragged into a piece of the war
03:30 Lack of consequences for past actions gave Trump sense of impunity
04:45 Iran looked like a paper tiger after strikes in June 2025
05:30 Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it
07:30 Trump hoped for an uprising or a pliant member of the regime
08:45 None of those hopes have materialized
09:30 Forces that wanted to overthrow regime went underground
10:30 The CIA is arming and training Kurds to overthrow the regime
11:45 Are we TRYING to trigger a civil war???
12:30 Regime change won’t come nearly as easy as Trump thought
13:15 Iran has inflicted damage to multiple gulf states
14:45 You can’t discount Trump’s business relationship as factors for war
16:00 Kushner involved in negotiations and has serious conflicts of interest
17:15 The administration is trying to use Israel as a shield
18:15 Administration made no plan to evacuate stranded Americans
19:00 Clearly was no imminent threat from Iran
20:30 If they had time to move the armada, they had time to warn Americans
21:30 The Iranians weren’t surprised that we were going to attack
22:30 Trump promised Iranian protestors “Help is on the way” - Took 40 days
23:00 State department told stranded Americans they were on their own
24:30 They put thought into the war itself, but not for the consequences
26:30 What’s Plan C? Hoping for a civil war?
27:15 This is Iraq on steroids and we have less credibility globally
28:30 Cost of providing stability in the region is politically unpopular
29:30 It’s a lot easier to start a war than to finish one
30:45 George H.W. Bush had a clean war with Iraq and voters punished him
32:00 When you’re under 80% support with your own party, you’re in trouble
33:30 Trump isn’t an isolationist, he’s a unilateralist. Do what he says
34:45 Passing a supplemental bill for war funding will be tough vote for GOP
36:30 J.D. Vance has to defend a war that’s antithetical to his political identity
37:30 Trump will endorse in Texas primary and expects the other to drop out
38:15 What will Trump offer Paxton to drop out early?
40:45 Republicans can’t win primary without Trump & he’s general election baggage
41:30 Talarico’s biggest vulnerability is he’s more progressive than his persona
42:15 Demeanor goes a long way in politics, could be Talarico’s superpower
45:00 Good for the Dems brand that first nominee (Talarico) isn’t a bomb thrower
53:30 Chris Cillizza joins the Chuck ToddCast
55:00 Jasmine Crockett concedes race to James Talarico
55:45 Race between Paxton & Cornyn essentially a wash
56:30 Big question is “Can Cornyn get to 50%”
57:15 Public is getting tired with the bomb throwers in politics
59:15 Talarico did well in counties that Bernie Sanders won
1:00:15 Texas Dems have been losing forever, desperate for “new”
1:02:00 Don’t mistake politically & temperamentally “moderate”
1:02:45 Being perceived as “nice” goes a long way
1:04:00 Online Dems are mad, but many want a change in tone
1:05:30 If Platner beats Mills by 15, Talarico data point feels like outlier
1:06:15 Have constant Dem losses in TX made “electability” more important?
1:07:15 Dems in Texas have to vote with their head and not their heart
1:09:00 Crockett is a great political athlete with bad campaign infrastructure
1:10:00 Talarico had a great ground game, should scare Republicans
1:11:15 Crockett could compete for Ted Cruz’s senate seat
1:12:00 Unlikely this is the last we hear from Crockett in politics
1:13:00 Crockett did well where she was well known
1:14:00 Kamala Harris endorsement came too late for Crockett
1:15:00 Harris shows herself to be incredibly risk averse
1:17:45 We’ll get the full story on the late endorsement in six months
1:18:30 Harris shares the same knock Biden got… can’t make decisions
1:19:15 Newsom signals shift on Israel in front of a very liberal audience
1:20:30 Newsom just pandering? Or is it a genuine flip
1:22:00 Gavin Newsom is a politician to his core
1:23:30 Newsom looked like he was desperate to find traction
1:24:00 Trump didn’t change, the moment came to him
1:25:00 Tariffs are terrible politics, but Trump’s liked them for decades
1:25:30 Bernie Sanders has been the most authentic politician for years
1:26:45 Sanders and Ron Paul ended up voting together many times
1:28:15 Vance lost the anti-interventionist part of his identity after Iran war
1:30:00 The spinning for a narrative for the war is an absolute mess
1:31:30 The perception of the economy in June will be what affects midterms
1:32:45 War will consume the administration
1:33:30 Administration had no plan to evacuate Americans from middle east
1:34:30 Trump’s big critique of Biden was the Afghanistan withdrawal
1:37:00 Prediction markets have Dems chances of winning senate at 45%
1:39:45 How should Dems try to affect Texas runoff?
1:41:30 Meddling works and if Cornyn is the nominee Talarico loses
1:42:00 Talarico’s floor is around 47-48
1:42:30 How do Dems sort Alaska, Ohio, Texas and Iowa?
1:43:45 If Josh Turek is the nominee in Iowa, race could be interesting
1:45:00 2026 will give us a clue as to how 2028 will play out
1:46:30 If one of the independent candidate wins statewide it’s a BIG deal
1:49:00 Midwest independent candidates know they can’t run as Dems and win
1:55:00 Montana senator Steve Daines announces retirement
1:55:45 Retirement will put Montana senate seat into play
1:56:15 Will this put pressure on Jon Tester to come out of retirement?
1:56:45 Montana will now be a key cog in campaign 2026
1:58:00 Potential that transplants could turn Montana into Colorado politically
1:59:00 Republicans will be favored, but it will require work & money
2:00:30 Democrats have had success in Montana in midterm years
2:01:00 This week just keeps getting worse for Republicans
2:02:00 Ask Chuck
2:02:30 Do reliably red/blue states get less investment from the federal government?
2:08:15 Could Trump try to trigger NATO’s Article V over Iran?
2:17:00 Will Texas AG runoff produce even more radical anti-trans rhetoric & policy?
2:20:00 My son thinks voting is useless. How do we teach the new generation it matters?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a blistering assessment of Trump's Iran war, arguing that the conflict has gone sideways in virtually every way imaginable — and that the lack of consequences for Trump's past norm-breaking gave him a false sense of impunity that led him here. Todd traces the logic: Iran looked like a paper tiger after the limited strikes in 2025, Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant regime insider to step forward — but none of those hopes have materialized. Instead, the forces that wanted to overthrow the regime have gone underground, the CIA is now arming and training Kurds in what Chuck bluntly asks amounts to deliberately triggering a civil war, Iran has inflicted real damage on multiple Gulf states, and stranded Americans were told by the State Department they were on their own because the administration made no evacuation plan whatsoever. He zeroes in on the damning timeline: if the administration had time to move an armada into position, they had time to warn American citizens. He flags that passing a war supplemental will be a brutal vote for GOP members, that JD Vance now has to defend a war antithetical to his entire political identity, and pivots to the Texas runoff noting that James Talarico's biggest vulnerability is being more progressive than his nice-guy persona suggests, but that demeanor may be his superpower in a cycle where voters are exhausted by bomb-throwers.
Finally, he reacts to the breaking news that Montana senator Steve Daines retired minutes before the filing deadline and argues that Republicans will be forced to defend what was a safe seat, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Go to https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:45 Trump’s war with Iran is not going well for him politically
02:30 Multiple countries have been dragged into a piece of the war
03:30 Lack of consequences for past actions gave Trump sense of impunity
04:45 Iran looked like a paper tiger after strikes in June 2025
05:30 Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it
07:30 Trump hoped for an uprising or a pliant member of the regime
08:45 None of those hopes have materialized
09:30 Forces that wanted to overthrow regime went underground
10:30 The CIA is arming and training Kurds to overthrow the regime
11:45 Are we TRYING to trigger a civil war???
12:30 Regime change won’t come nearly as easy as Trump thought
13:15 Iran has inflicted damage to multiple gulf states
14:45 You can’t discount Trump’s business relationship as factors for war
16:00 Kushner involved in negotiations and has serious conflicts of interest
17:15 The administration is trying to use Israel as a shield
18:15 Administration made no plan to evacuate stranded Americans
19:00 Clearly was no imminent threat from Iran
20:30 If they had time to move the armada, they had time to warn Americans
21:30 The Iranians weren’t surprised that we were going to attack
22:30 Trump promised Iranian protestors “Help is on the way” - Took 40 days
23:00 State department told stranded Americans they were on their own
24:30 They put thought into the war itself, but not for the consequences
26:30 What’s Plan C? Hoping for a civil war?
27:15 This is Iraq on steroids and we have less credibility globally
28:30 Cost of providing stability in the region is politically unpopular
29:30 It’s a lot easier to start a war than to finish one
30:45 George H.W. Bush had a clean war with Iraq and voters punished him
32:00 When you’re under 80% support with your own party, you’re in trouble
33:30 Trump isn’t an isolationist, he’s a unilateralist. Do what he says
34:45 Passing a supplemental bill for war funding will be tough vote for GOP
36:30 J.D. Vance has to defend a war that’s antithetical to his political identity
37:30 Trump will endorse in Texas primary and expects the other to drop out
38:15 What will Trump offer Paxton to drop out early?
40:45 Republicans can’t win primary without Trump & he’s general election baggage
41:30 Talarico’s biggest vulnerability is he’s more progressive than his persona
42:15 Demeanor goes a long way in politics, could be Talarico’s superpower
45:00 Good for the Dems brand that first nominee (Talarico) isn’t a bomb thrower
53:30 Montana senator Steve Daines announces retirement
54:15 Retirement will put Montana senate seat into play
54:45 Will this put pressure on Jon Tester to come out of retirement?
55:15 Montana will now be a key cog in campaign 2026
56:30 Potential that transplants could turn Montana into Colorado politically
57:30 Republicans will be favored, but it will require work & money
59:00 Democrats have had success in Montana in midterm years
59:30 This week just keeps getting worse for Republicans
1:00:30 Ask Chuck
1:01:00 Do reliably red/blue states get less investment from the federal government?
1:06:45 Could Trump try to trigger NATO’s Article V over Iran?
1:15:30 Will Texas AG runoff produce even more radical anti-trans rhetoric & policy?
1:18:30 My son thinks voting is useless. How do we teach the new generation it matters?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oscar-nominated filmmaker Josh Seftel joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss All the Empty Rooms, his devastating Netflix documentary short that chronicles the untouched bedrooms of children killed in school shootings since Sandy Hook. Seftel describes a country that has grown numb to over 100 school shootings just this year — where the reporting cycle moves on before victims' stories can truly be told — and explains how the simple, visceral act of standing in a dead child's bedroom forces viewers to feel something that statistics never could. He reveals that many parents have kept these rooms exactly as their children left them, preserving even the smell, creating what amounts to sacred spaces frozen in time.Chuck draws the parallel to the decision to show Emmett Till's open casket, and Seftel argues these painful stories must be told regardless of how uncomfortable they make us, because imagery can be more powerful than the spoken word.
What makes the film's approach so striking — and so strategically effective — is what it leaves out. The word "gun" is never mentioned, a deliberate choice to avoid triggering the political reflexes that shut down conversation before it starts. And it's working: Seftel shares that a Second Amendment enthusiast changed his mind after seeing the photos of empty rooms, and even a Sandy Hook denier reached out after watching. The film's funders didn't want to make money — they wanted to make change — and Netflix's global distribution has given it a massive reach. Seftel says the conversation has to start with one simple question — "How do we keep kids safe at school?" — and that the film intentionally got better as it got shorter, stripping away prescription and polemic to let the silence of those rooms do the work.
Go to https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Josh Seftel joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:45 People are surprised by the portrayal in “All the Empty Rooms”
02:15 Public has grown to accept over 100 school shootings a year
03:00 Seeing the empty rooms of victims forces you to feel something
04:30 Why has mass shooting frequency been accelerating?
06:00 Does media coverage of shootings plant the seed for more?
07:15 Says a lot about American psyche that True Crime is so popular
08:30 Focus of the doc is on victims, not the shooters
09:00 Asked parents of every child killed since Sandy Hook to film their room
12:00 Media that means to come back to tell victims stories aren’t able to
13:00 Stories must be told, regardless of how painful. Like Emmit Til
14:15 Many parents kept their slain children’s rooms untouched
15:15 Parents want to preserve the smell of their children
16:15 How did you compartmentalize when making this doc?
18:15 The hope of the doc is that everyone can feel the weight of the loss
19:30 People with the power to fix this problem need to see this doc
21:00 The word “Gun” is never mentioned, didn’t want to turn off viewers
22:45 Photos of empty rooms led 2A enthusiast to change his mind
23:30 Got an email from a Sandy Hook denier that watched the doc
25:30 The doc paints a 3D image of the victims, that gets missed normally
28:00 Parents choose to grieve & respond in different ways
30:00 Each family & parent has a different relationship with the empty room
31:45 Some families want to move, but can’t bring themselves to pack up room
33:30 Was it hard not to get prescriptive?
36:00 Conversation must start with “How do we keep kids safe at school?”
37:00 The film got better as it got shorter
38:00 Imagery can be more powerful than spoken word
39:15 Streaming on Netflix allows for far wider distribution
40:30 Funders for the doc didn’t want to make money, they wanted to make change
44:00 The topic wasn’t just powerful, it was visually powerful
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd breaks down the Texas primary results and finds a political landscape that should terrify the Republican establishment. Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are headed to a runoff on the GOP side, but the headline number is stunning: Democrats posted a higher overall vote total than Republicans in the Texas primary, a seismic signal in what has long been the country's biggest red state. He credits Talarico's viral Colbert moment with giving him a massive boost, notes that Latino voters broke decisively for Talarico over Jasmine Crockett — who ran an unconventional campaign and is unlikely to concede quickly — and argues that a Paxton vs. Talarico general election would genuinely put Texas in play. He walks through the strategic calculus: history favors Paxton in a runoff, Cornyn has outperformed polling but a Cornyn nomination would draw less national Democratic investment in the race, and Democrats should have the budget to compete in Texas regardless — because Texas is "nice to have" for Democrats but "must have" for Republicans, and if Democrats win even once there, it opens the floodgates. He also flags Dan Crenshaw losing after failing to secure Trump's endorsement, the razor-thin two-vote margin for the state senate campaign in North Carolina, and a broader pattern of bad developments piling up for the GOP — capped by Trump stoking voter skepticism with an unpopular Iran war. His verdict: this is the worst possible start to an election cycle for Republicans, because it's easy to start a war and very hard to end one.
Then, Oscar-nominated filmmaker Josh Seftel joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss All the Empty Rooms, his devastating Netflix documentary short that chronicles the untouched bedrooms of children killed in school shootings since Sandy Hook. Seftel describes a country that has grown numb to over 100 school shootings just this year — where the reporting cycle moves on before victims' stories can truly be told — and explains how the simple, visceral act of standing in a dead child's bedroom forces viewers to feel something that statistics never could. He reveals that many parents have kept these rooms exactly as their children left them, preserving even the smell, creating what amounts to sacred spaces frozen in time.Chuck draws the parallel to the decision to show Emmett Till's open casket, and Seftel argues these painful stories must be told regardless of how uncomfortable they make us, because imagery can be more powerful than the spoken word.
What makes the film's approach so striking — and so strategically effective — is what it leaves out. The word "gun" is never mentioned, a deliberate choice to avoid triggering the political reflexes that shut down conversation before it starts. And it's working: Seftel shares that a Second Amendment enthusiast changed his mind after seeing the photos of empty rooms, and even a Sandy Hook denier reached out after watching. The film's funders didn't want to make money — they wanted to make change — and Netflix's global distribution has given it a massive reach. Seftel says the conversation has to start with one simple question — "How do we keep kids safe at school?" — and that the film intentionally got better as it got shorter, stripping away prescription and polemic to let the silence of those rooms do the work.
Finally, Chuck lists his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time Texas statewide elections and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Go to https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:00 Ken Paxton & John Cornyn headed to a runoff
02:30 Democrats had a higher vote total than Republicans in Texas primary
03:45 Talarico’s moment with Stephen Colbert gave him a huge boost
05:00 Several house races headed to a run off
07:00 Latino voters broke fairly decisively for Talarico
07:45 Crockett didn’t run a conventional campaign
08:30 Crockett is unlikely to concede quickly
10:00 We never got the full story on the Colbert moment
11:15 Fighter vs Uniter is the divide amongst Democrats
13:00 If Cornyn can stay ahead of Paxton, that will matter to Trump
14:30 Talarico being the nominee will make establishment Republicans nervous
16:00 History says it’s more likely that Paxton wins the runoff
18:00 Cornyn has outperformed the polling
18:30 With Paxton & Talarico as the nominees, Texas is in play
19:30 Do senate Democrats play in the Republican runoff?
20:30 If it’s Cornyn vs. Talarico, the national party won’t help Talarico as much
22:00 Will Dems spend on Alaska, Iowa and Nebraska?
23:15 Dems should have the budget to target Texas
24:00 Texas is “nice to have” for Dems, it’s “must have” for Republicans
25:30 If Democrats win once in Texas, it opens the door for more wins
26:45 Two vote margin for the state senate president in North Carolina
27:45 Dan Crenshaw didn’t get Trump endorsement and lost
29:15 Bad developments keep happening for the Republican party
30:15 Trump is only stoking voter skepticism with Iran war
31:30 It’s easy to start a war, it’s hard to end one
32:00 Worst possible start to an election cycle for the Republicans
42:00 Josh Seftel joins the Chuck ToddCast
43:45 People are surprised by the portrayal in “All the Empty Rooms”
44:15 Public has grown to accept over 100 school shootings a year
45:00 Seeing the empty rooms of victims forces you to feel something
46:30 Why has mass shooting frequency been accelerating?
48:00 Does media coverage of shootings plant the seed for more?
49:15 Says a lot about American psyche that True Crime is so popular
50:30 Focus of the doc is on victims, not the shooters
51:00 Asked parents of every child killed since Sandy Hook to film their room
54:00 Media that means to come back to tell victims stories aren’t able to
55:00 Stories must be told, regardless of how painful. Like Emmit Til
56:15 Many parents kept their slain children’s rooms untouched
57:15 Parents want to preserve the smell of their children
58:15 How did you compartmentalize when making this doc?
1:00:15 The hope of the doc is that everyone can feel the weight of the loss
1:01:30 People with the power to fix this problem need to see this doc
1:03:00 The word “Gun” is never mentioned, didn’t want to turn off viewers
1:04:45 Photos of empty rooms led 2A enthusiast to change his mind
1:05:30 Got an email from a Sandy Hook denier that watched the doc
1:07:30 The doc paints a 3D image of the victims, that gets missed normally
1:10:00 Parents choose to grieve & respond in different ways
1:12:00 Each family & parent has a different relationship with the empty room
1:13:45 Some families want to move, but can’t bring themselves to pack up room
1:15:30 Was it hard not to get prescriptive?
1:18:00 Conversation must start with “How do we keep kids safe at school?”
1:19:00 The film got better as it got shorter
1:20:00 Imagery can be more powerful than spoken word
1:21:15 Streaming on Netflix allows for far wider distribution
1:22:30 Funders for the doc didn’t want to make money, they wanted to make change
1:26:00 The topic wasn’t just powerful, it was visually powerful
1:31:45 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Josh Seftel
1:34:30 Texas senate race has a chance to become an all-timer
1:35:15 ToddCast Top 5 All-Time statewide campaigns in Texas history
1:37:15 #5 2006 Governor’s race
1:42:45 #4 1994 Governor’s race
1:45:45 #3 1924 Governor’s race
1:49:15 #2 1962 special election for senate
1:54:00 #1 1948 Democratic senate primary
2:01:30 Honorable mentions
2:04:00 Ask Chuck
2:04:15 Take on Pete Hegseth’s briefing on the Iran war? What are the objectives?
2:10:30 Why is a war powers resolution needed? How can congress restrain Trump?
2:13:45 Will this war be better received if not launched during tax season?
2:18:15 Explaining complex political & world events to your kids?
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