The Chuck ToddCast

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi joins Chuck Todd to break down what the numbers actually say about the U.S. economy—and why the headline optimism may be masking deeper problems. Zandi explains how upcoming tax refunds and delayed tax cuts will temporarily juice growth, even as that stimulus is entirely deficit-financed. Interest rate cuts are likely coming, but cautiously, and while AI stocks are soaring, the broader market is barely treading water. Beneath the surface, job creation has stalled, manufacturing jobs are shrinking under tariffs, and deportations aren’t translating into more employment for native-born workers as many expected. The conversation widens to a fragile global outlook, with Trump-era protectionism accelerating deglobalization and reshaping trade, housing, and labor markets. Zandi details why college-educated workers are now seeing the sharpest rise in unemployment, how AI skills will define the next generation of jobs, and why renting often makes more sense than buying right now. Looking ahead to 2026, he warns of elevated geopolitical and financial-system risks, an AI-driven stock market that could be vulnerable to a correction, GDP growth likely under 3%, and a job market that may struggle to grow at all. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:15 What do the numbers say about the state of the economy? 02:00 Big Beautiful Bill tax cuts about to start showing up 02:45 Tax refunds will add juice to the economy 03:30 All the “juice” is deficit financed and will only be temporary 04:30 Interest rates cuts likely to be cautious but will continue 05:45 AI stocks on fire, rest of the stocks are just up slightly 07:30 The economy isn’t creating any jobs despite investment 08:15 Job creation flatlined after “Liberation Day” 09:30 Manufacturing has been losing jobs due to tariffs 10:45 Are deportations creating more jobs for native born workers? 11:30 Jobs normally taken by foreign born workers aren’t being filled 12:45 Companies aren’t laying off, they’re just not hiring new employees 14:00 Trade deficit reportedly down, but is that actually a good thing? 14:45 Imports of pharmaceuticals have collapsed due to tariffs 15:30 Tariffs haven’t actually addressed the trade deficit 17:00 Tariff revenue shows the stated tariff rates aren’t holding true 18:15 Will the K-shaped economy continue through 2026? 19:45 Economy is affecting different income groups wildly different 21:00 Partisans believe economy is better depending on who is president 22:15 How do you price in Trump taking Greenland & ending NATO? 23:00 Economies around the world are in a similar, fragile place like the U.S. 24:00 The U.S. is rapidly pulling away from the rest of the world 25:00 Trump’s protectionism has been contagious to other countries 26:15 The world is preparing for a deglobalization 28:15 China hasn’t really taken advantage of U.S. global retreat 29:00 Countries that embrace immigration are the most successful 30:00 No country benefited more from globalization than China 31:45 USMCA has to be renegotiated, will probably remain status quo 34:00 Job market for new college graduates is very tough 34:45 Rise in unemployment is almost exclusively college educated 35:45 Proficiency in AI will be critical in future jobs 36:45 Classical higher education could make a comeback 38:45 Home ownership is unaffordable for many Americans 39:30 It’s better to rent than to buy in this market 40:30 There’s not a lot of buyers for prospective home sellers 41:15 Raising the capital gains exclusion could generate more sellers 43:45 There’s a chance the GOP could lose house majority before November 44:15 What risks that could upend the economy that concern you the most? 45:00 Geopolitical risk is very elevated 45:30 Stock market being buoyed by AI, could be ripe for correction 47:00 If there’s a major problem it will be in the financial system 47:30 If an AI company defaults, it could change the psychology of lenders 49:45 GDP growth will be under 3% in 2026 50:45 Will be tough to imagine positive job growth in 2026See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of The Chuck ToddCast, Chuck Todd digs into a growing sense of unease shared across the political spectrum, as 2026 looms as a “year of living dangerously” at home and abroad. From mass migration, rising nationalism, and AI-driven economic fear to flashpoints in Venezuela, Iran, and beyond, the conversation explores why so many global and domestic headlines feel like potential tipping points. Chuck argues the world is less stable—and America more divided—under Donald Trump, whose administration he says views chaos and division as sources of power rather than problems to solve. The episode draws stark parallels between the Minneapolis ICE shooting and the Ruby Ridge standoff, examining how the rush to control narratives, the politicization of law enforcement, and the erosion of civil liberties can fracture public trust. The warning is sobering: America may ultimately be okay, but right now it’s a tinderbox—and a country that fails to protect the rights of its own citizens risks losing its moral authority everywhere else. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Woodrow Wilson’s “Fourteen Points” speech that laid out the vision for the 20th century world order & warns that retreating from it could be devastating for both the United State & the world. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment & previews the national championship between Indiana & Miami. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 05:30 People on both sides of the aisle worried if we’ll be ok 07:00 2026 will be the “year of living dangerously” 07:45 We are in uncharted waters and don’t know where it’s headed 09:30 Mass migration has led to rising nationalism in USA & Europe 10:00 Globalization caused a sense of displacement 11:00 AI will create even more fear than globalization 12:15 The political response to economic anxiety has failed 14:00 We still don’t know what will happen with Venezuela 14:30 Iranian regime likely will fall in 2026 15:45 It’s clear Trump has no plan for Venezuela 17:30 Latin America is deeply skeptical of American power 19:00 Every headline feels like a tipping point 20:00 Trump could take military action against many countries 20:30 The world is less safe because Donald Trump is president 21:45 Trump admin believes division bolsters their power 23:00 On social media, it feels like America is on the brink of civil war 24:00 America feels like a tinderbox 25:45 ICE is being trained to treat citizens as threats, not constituents 27:30 Law enforcement is supposed to be a deescalator 30:15 We’ve been living through a “vote against” political roller coaster 32:00 Voters don’t like chaos, & Trump is neither calm or stable 33:00 Elements of the American right have given up on democracy 34:15 America will eventually be ok, but is not ok in this moment 34:45 The sparks of military clash are burning around the world 37:00 Parallels between Ruby Ridge standoff & Minneapolis ICE shooting 39:15 A confrontation occurred between Weaver’s son & law enforcement 40:00 FBI sniper shot Weaver’s wife while holding her baby 40:30 Unlike Minneapolis, government held investigations after Ruby Ridge 41:30 Ruby Ridge led to militia formations & deep state conspiracies 42:15 Administration tried to solidify narrative before facts in Minneapolis 44:00 The left sees Renee Good as a victim, the right sees justification 45:00 The Trump administration has politicized the rule of law 46:00 If U.S. doesn’t respect rights of its citizens, it can’t take moral high ground 52:45 ToddCast Time Machine – January 8th, 1918 53:30 Woodrow Wilson lays out blueprint for 20th century world order 54:15 America tried to shape the world with ideas, not empire 55:30 Wilson’s Fourteen Points speech rejected premise that caused WW1 57:00 Wilson advances transparency, diplomacy & idealistic foreign policy 58:00 Wilson calls for economic interdependence & free trade 59:00 Wilson proposes self-determination over empires 1:00:15 Some American conservatives have rejected Wilsonianism for 100 years 1:01:45 Wilson wanted America’s role to be an arbiter, not a conqueror 1:02:45 In 1919, Wilson’s vision was confronted by power politics 1:03:30 The U.S. proposes the League of Nations but doesn’t join it 1:04:15 Every global geopolitical debate traces back to Wilson’s speech 1:05:30 The post WW2 world order benefitted America, & it’s falling apart 1:07:00 Ask Chuck 1:07:45 Reaction to the ICE shooting in Minneapolis? 1:09:15 Why hasn’t the US taken action to remove the leader of Haiti? 1:13:45 Could Rahm Emmanuel beat Gavin Newsom for Dem nomination? 1:17:00 Would an attack on Colombia be a mistake for the Trump administration? 1:23:00 Miami vs Indiana national championship previewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of The Chuck ToddCast, Chuck Todd digs into a growing sense of unease shared across the political spectrum, as 2026 looms as a “year of living dangerously” at home and abroad. From mass migration, rising nationalism, and AI-driven economic fear to flashpoints in Venezuela, Iran, and beyond, the conversation explores why so many global and domestic headlines feel like potential tipping points. Chuck argues the world is less stable—and America more divided—under Donald Trump, whose administration he says views chaos and division as sources of power rather than problems to solve. The episode draws stark parallels between the Minneapolis ICE shooting and the Ruby Ridge standoff, examining how the rush to control narratives, the politicization of law enforcement, and the erosion of civil liberties can fracture public trust. The warning is sobering: America may ultimately be okay, but right now it’s a tinderbox—and a country that fails to protect the rights of its own citizens risks losing its moral authority everywhere else. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi joins Chuck Todd to break down what the numbers actually say about the U.S. economy—and why the headline optimism may be masking deeper problems. Zandi explains how upcoming tax refunds and delayed tax cuts will temporarily juice growth, even as that stimulus is entirely deficit-financed. Interest rate cuts are likely coming, but cautiously, and while AI stocks are soaring, the broader market is barely treading water. Beneath the surface, job creation has stalled, manufacturing jobs are shrinking under tariffs, and deportations aren’t translating into more employment for native-born workers as many expected. The conversation widens to a fragile global outlook, with Trump-era protectionism accelerating deglobalization and reshaping trade, housing, and labor markets. Zandi details why college-educated workers are now seeing the sharpest rise in unemployment, how AI skills will define the next generation of jobs, and why renting often makes more sense than buying right now. Looking ahead to 2026, he warns of elevated geopolitical and financial-system risks, an AI-driven stock market that could be vulnerable to a correction, GDP growth likely under 3%, and a job market that may struggle to grow at all. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Woodrow Wilson’s “Fourteen Points” speech that laid out the vision for the 20th century world order & warns that retreating from it could be devastating for both the United State & the world. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment & previews the national championship between Indiana & Miami. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 05:30 People on both sides of the aisle worried if we’ll be ok 07:00 2026 will be the “year of living dangerously” 07:45 We are in uncharted waters and don’t know where it’s headed 09:30 Mass migration has led to rising nationalism in USA & Europe 10:00 Globalization caused a sense of displacement 11:00 AI will create even more fear than globalization 12:15 The political response to economic anxiety has failed 14:00 We still don’t know what will happen with Venezuela 14:30 Iranian regime likely will fall in 2026 15:45 It’s clear Trump has no plan for Venezuela 17:30 Latin America is deeply skeptical of American power 19:00 Every headline feels like a tipping point 20:00 Trump could take military action against many countries 20:30 The world is less safe because Donald Trump is president 21:45 Trump admin believes division bolsters their power 23:00 On social media, it feels like America is on the brink of civil war 24:00 America feels like a tinderbox 25:45 ICE is being trained to treat citizens as threats, not constituents 27:30 Law enforcement is supposed to be a deescalator 30:15 We’ve been living through a “vote against” political roller coaster 32:00 Voters don’t like chaos, & Trump is neither calm or stable 33:00 Elements of the American right have given up on democracy 34:15 America will eventually be ok, but is not ok in this moment 34:45 The sparks of military clash are burning around the world 37:00 Parallels between Ruby Ridge standoff & Minneapolis ICE shooting 39:15 A confrontation occurred between Weaver’s son & law enforcement 40:00 FBI sniper shot Weaver’s wife while holding her baby 40:30 Unlike Minneapolis, government held investigations after Ruby Ridge 41:30 Ruby Ridge led to militia formations & deep state conspiracies 42:15 Administration tried to solidify narrative before facts in Minneapolis 44:00 The left sees Renee Good as a victim, the right sees justification 45:00 The Trump administration has politicized the rule of law 46:00 If U.S. doesn’t respect rights of its citizens, it can’t take moral high ground 53:15 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast 54:30 What do the numbers say about the state of the economy? 55:15 Big Beautiful Bill tax cuts about to start showing up 56:00 Tax refunds will add juice to the economy 56:45 All the “juice” is deficit financed and will only be temporary 57:45 Interest rates cuts likely to be cautious but will continue 59:00 AI stocks on fire, rest of the stocks are just up slightly 1:00:45 The economy isn’t creating any jobs despite investment 1:01:30 Job creation flatlined after “Liberation Day” 1:02:45 Manufacturing has been losing jobs due to tariffs 1:04:00 Are deportations creating more jobs for native born workers? 1:04:45 Jobs normally taken by foreign born workers aren’t being filled 1:06:00 Companies aren’t laying off, they’re just not hiring new employees 1:07:15 Trade deficit reportedly down, but is that actually a good thing? 1:08:00 Imports of pharmaceuticals have collapsed due to tariffs 1:08:45 Tariffs haven’t actually addressed the trade deficit 1:10:15 Tariff revenue shows the stated tariff rates aren’t holding true 1:11:30 Will the K-shaped economy continue through 2026? 1:13:00 Economy is affecting different income groups wildly different 1:14:15 Partisans believe economy is better depending on who is president 1:15:30 How do you price in Trump taking Greenland & ending NATO? 1:16:15 Economies around the world are in a similar, fragile place like the U.S. 1:17:15 The U.S. is rapidly pulling away from the rest of the world 1:18:15 Trump’s protectionism has been contagious to other countries 1:19:30 The world is preparing for a deglobalization 1:21:30 China hasn’t really taken advantage of U.S. global retreat 1:22:15 Countries that embrace immigration are the most successful 1:23:15 No country benefited more from globalization than China 1:25:00 USMCA has to be renegotiated, will probably remain status quo 1:27:15 Job market for new college graduates is very tough 1:28:00 Rise in unemployment is almost exclusively college educated 1:29:00 Proficiency in AI will be critical in future jobs 1:30:00 Classical higher education could make a comeback 1:32:00 Home ownership is unaffordable for many Americans 1:32:45 It’s better to rent than to buy in this market 1:33:45 There’s not a lot of buyers for prospective home sellers 1:34:30 Raising the capital gains exclusion could generate more sellers 1:37:00 There’s a chance the GOP could lose house majority before November 1:37:30 What risks that could upend the economy that concern you the most? 1:38:15 Geopolitical risk is very elevated 1:38:45 Stock market being buoyed by AI, could be ripe for correction 1:40:15 If there’s a major problem it will be in the financial system 1:40:45 If an AI company defaults, it could change the psychology of lenders 1:43:00 GDP growth will be under 3% in 2026 1:44:00 Will be tough to imagine positive job growth in 2026 1:46:15 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Mark Zandi 1:47:00 ToddCast Time Machine – January 8th, 1918 1:47:45 Woodrow Wilson lays out blueprint for 20th century world order 1:48:30 America tried to shape the world with ideas, not empire 1:49:45 Wilson’s Fourteen Points speech rejected premise that caused WW1 1:51:15 Wilson advances transparency, diplomacy & idealistic foreign policy 1:52:15 Wilson calls for economic interdependence & free trade 1:53:15 Wilson proposes self-determination over empires 1:54:30 Some American conservatives have rejected Wilsonianism for 100 years 1:56:00 Wilson wanted America’s role to be an arbiter, not a conqueror 1:57:00 In 1919, Wilson’s vision was confronted by power politics 1:57:45 The U.S. proposes the League of Nations but doesn’t join it 1:58:30 Every global geopolitical debate traces back to Wilson’s speech 1:59:45 The post-WW2 world order benefitted America, & it’s falling apart 2:01:15 Ask Chuck 2:02:00 Reaction to the ICE shooting in Minneapolis? 2:03:30 Why hasn’t the US taken action to remove the leader of Haiti? 2:08:00 Could Rahm Emanuel beat Gavin Newsom for Dem nomination? 2:11:15 Would an attack on Colombia be a mistake for the Trump administration? 2:17:15 Miami vs Indiana national championship previewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck examines the deadly ICE shooting in Minneapolis and the political, moral, and institutional failures surrounding it. As the administration rushes to rationalize the killing rather than investigate it—despite video evidence and eyewitness accounts that contradict its narrative—Chuck unpacks how DHS rhetoric, recruitment tactics, and targeted ICE deployments appear designed to provoke confrontation and fuel fear. The conversation moves beyond partisan lines to ask what accountability should look like when federal power is used this way, why affected communities are unlikely to trust the investigation, and how the tragedy is being exploited as propaganda. Ultimately, Chuck argues this moment reveals both the fragility and resilience of American democracy, the political danger facing Republicans, and why “whataboutism” has become one of the most corrosive forces in our national discourse. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction on ICE shooting in Minneapolis 01:00 Nobody in administration wants to investigate ICE shooting 02:15 J.D. Vance just idly speculated that ICE was in the right 04:15 DHS recruiting has a militaristic undertone 06:00 DHS has used propaganda to fuel rage in ICE recruits 07:15 Administration is rationalizing the death rather than lamenting it 08:30 There’s an intentionality to which cities are targeted by ICE 09:45 Administration is trying to create confrontation in order to crack down 10:30 This isn’t about left vs. right, it’s about right vs. wrong 11:30 Video contradicts Kristi Noem’s version of events, Tom Homan backtracks 12:15 Police forces don’t normally jump to conclusions 14:15 Campaign to demonize Somalis in Minneapolis led to ICE deployment 15:30 Deployments are meant to maximize, not minimize exposure for raids 16:30 Feds taking control of investigation, community won’t believe outcome 18:00 Administration is using woman’s death as a piece of propaganda 19:00 Trump is acting like his time is running out & he can do what he wants 20:15 No eyewitness accounts match story admin is telling 22:15 Republicans are in huge trouble politically 23:15 American democracy is both fragile and strong 25:00 Admin doesn’t have credibility to provide trustworthy investigation 27:30 ICE needs new leadership and a better code of conduct 29:15 Government is looking to exploit the difficulty in trying to find truth 30:30 Public is supportive of some of Trump’s goals, but appalled by tactics 32:30 Trump doesn’t tolerate any disagreement from within the GOP 35:00 The worst virus in American politics is “Whataboutism”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd is on vacation but the fresh content keeps coming! Chuck empties the 2025 mailbag and answers a variety of listeners’ questions regarding media, politics, history and sports. If you’d like to ask Chuck a question, shoot us an email at [email protected] Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:45 As a network on public airwaves, shouldn’t CBS News be neutral? 09:00 How should public figures react to being the targets of satire? 15:00 Why is there a mass exodus of staff from the Heritage Foundation? 18:30 Thoughts on the infusion of prediction markets with political coverage? 23:15 How long does it take for a presidential term to become irrelevant? 30:30 What if Biden stuck with 1 term promise and reformed the presidency? 35:15 What if Russia never sold Alaska to the United States? 38:00 Was the country really united in grief over Garfield’s passing? 42:30 Thoughts on LeBron episode? Magic Johnson should be in GOAT debate 45:15 What one word would you use to describe the year ahead? 49:15 Why don’t we see monopoly concerns over the trading card market? 53:30 Any book recommendations to help understand Roy Cohn? 57:00 Miami’s connection to the cold war portrayed in “Covert City”? 58:30 How does it feel to be an independent journalist after years with NBC? 59:30 Are more people “seeing the light” as MAGA’s coalition cracks? 1:00:45 What are your takeaways from interviewing Andy Beshear? 1:06:00 How did you become a Packers fan after growing up in Miami?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.