The Chuck ToddCast

Ben Wikler, the former Wisconsin Democratic Party chair and author of the new book This Is the Plan joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that Democrats keep making the same category error: they keep winning change elections and then failing to deliver change, because they're trying to fix policy without first fixing the system that determines who gets to make policy. Wikler's framing is memorable and a little cheeky — you have to win the ring of power and then cast it into Mount Doom — but his point is serious. When the right wins power, it immediately restructures the system to entrench itself; Democrats win and then govern as though the rules are fixed. His plan runs through the state level, where free and fair elections are actually secured, and demands ending the filibuster and reforming the Supreme Court, including term limits for justices, because campaign finance reform is impossible without a Court willing to allow it. Wikler argues America is in the greatest period of political instability in its history, that inequality now exceeds the Gilded Age, that gerrymandering has left millions of people without a meaningful vote, and that both party bases increasingly want to fight more than they want to win — while swing and non-voters have simply given up on the system itself. He rejects the tired rebuilders-versus-renovators binary: FDR's Social Security pitch was a huge swing, incrementalism was the only path to Obamacare, and the actual art of politics is starting from values and vision and then figuring out what can pass.
The conversation gets specific about Wisconsin and about trust. Wikler pushes back on the idea that Francesca Hong is too "Madison" for a statewide race, notes she's spent years traveling and listening across the state, and calls Tom Tiffany an election denier who is genuinely beatable in a cycle where affordability is the central issue. He and Chuck work through the puzzle of why Tony Evers' calm, steady approach succeeded where Biden's didn't — Evers came out forcefully against Dobbs, and, more fundamentally, you have to convince a majority of voters that government can actually work, which means doing what you said you'd do and then relentlessly telling people you did it. Wikler points to pandemic relief as the cautionary tale: those programs dramatically improved life for lower-income voters, the child tax credit cut child poverty in half, and then it all expired and Democrats got punished for the loss rather than credited for the gain — with an extension that had bipartisan support dying anyway, because the filibuster exists largely to deprive the other side of a win. He credits Ken Martin for investing in state parties, argues Democrats don't need a 50-state strategy so much as fifty different state strategies since the coalition looks different everywhere, and concedes that Trump has been the most successful Republican of this era, spawning an army of mini-mes modeling themselves on him. And yes, Chuck asks the obvious question — why not run for Senate yourself?

Thanks to the sponsors of The Chuck ToddCast:
Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Ben Wikler joins The Chuck ToddCast
01:00 Ben’s new book is “This Is The Plan”
01:15 What is the plan?
01:45 To get political change we need, we need to change the system
02:30 To secure free & fair elections, need to win at the state level
03:00 We need an end to the filibuster and Supreme Court reform
03:45 There’s no one office or candidate to get us out of this mess
05:45 We need to win the ring of power, then cast it into Mount Doom
06:15 When the right wins power, they immediately change systems
07:15 We keep having change elections, then not getting change
09:30 We’re in the greatest period of political instability in American history
12:30 Both party bases want to fight more than want to win
13:30 We’re so gerrymandered, people don’t really get a vote
15:00 Swing/Non voters have given up on the system itself
19:30 Are rebuilders or renovators going to win the argument?
20:00 FDR’s social security pitch was a big swing
22:30 Incrimentalism was the only way to pass Obamacare
23:15 The art of politics is values/vision, then figure out what can actually pass
24:15 A party should be able to change laws, then face the voters
25:30 Need to reform the Supreme Court to reform campaign finance laws
26:15 Advocate for term limits for Supreme Court justices in the book
26:45 Inequality is now worse than it was during the Gilded Age
28:00 Is Francesca Hong too “Madison” of a candidate for Wisconsin gov?
28:45 Hong has been traveling the state & listening for years
29:45 Wisconsin Dem gov primary has been topsy turvy
30:45 Tom Tiffany is an election denier & beatable candidate
32:00 Affordability is the central issue this election cycle
34:45 Why did “calming the waters” work for Tony Evers, but not Joe Biden?
35:30 Evers came out very strongly against Dobbs
36:15 You have to convince a majority of the public that government works
38:15 Trust is earned by doing what you say you’ll do, then highlighting it
39:45 Pandemic relief had a massive positive effect on lower income voters
40:15 Those programs stopped, and voters punished Dems for it
41:00 Child tax credit cut child poverty in half, great accomplishment for Dems
41:30 There was bipartisan support for extended tax credit, still didn’t get done
42:00 Filibuster is used to deprive the other side from getting a win
44:30 Politicians can lay out a succession plan, but voters get their say
46:00 Politicians are limited in setting out a succession plan
47:30 How big should the Democratic tent be?
48:30 The coalition looks different in different states
50:00 Donald Trump has been the most successful GOP politician of this era
50:45 Every Republican politician looks to Trump as the model
51:15 Trump has created an army of “mini-mes”
53:00 What Ken Martin is doing right: Building state parties
55:45 Democrats don’t need a 50 state strategy, they need 50 state strategies
56:45 You build a local brand through your actions over time
57:30 When did you first think about running for office?
59:30 Support Tammy Baldwin’s bill to provide live Packers games
1:01:00 Most excited about Jordan Love in the upcoming season
1:02:15 Why wouldn’t you run for the senate?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd unpacks David Crowley's astonishing photo-finish win over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin — a race Crowley dropped out of, re-entered with Tony Evers' backing, and then won by roughly 3,200 votes — and argues national Democrats are far more relieved than they'll ever admit. Had Hong won, she'd have become a face of the party while being forced to spend the fall answering for past statements about defunding police, abolishing prisons, and canceling Thanksgiving rather than talking about the economy, handing Republicans an absurdly easy story to tell. Chuck credits Tony Evers for refusing to fence-sit and mounting what amounted to an emergency rescue operation, while noting Crowley isn't remotely "establishment" — he came from genuinely modest roots and ran a campaign largely defined by what he wasn't. Chuck identifies Hong's central unforced error as nationalizing her race in the closing weeks, a fundraising-driven instinct in an era where media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appeals, forgetting that the national online audience and the local electorate are not the same people. Mamdani stayed disciplined and won; Hong drifted into boutique cultural debates and lost. But Chuck cautions against reading this as a repudiation of the left: Peggy Flanagan won in Minnesota, progressives are doing better this cycle than they have in years, and the 2027 House will be younger and slightly further left. The real structural lesson is that progressives struggle in higher-turnout and open primaries, still face a persistent obstacle with African American primary voters, and — most tellingly — keep getting rejected by the working-class voters they orient their entire message toward, which is more than a messaging glitch. Abdul El-Sayed emerges a quiet winner here, now much harder to lump in with the DSA, and Chuck notes that neither AOC nor Bernie ever endorsed Hong.
The rest of the monologue is a run of results that keep pointing the same direction. Trump-endorsed candidates keep losing primaries: Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota, Darline Graham didn't clear a third of the vote and is no lock in her runoff, and Chuck's read is that Trump's grip is measurably slipping. Fourteen-term Congressman John Larson lost his primary, part of the highest incumbent-loss rate since 1970 — in a genuine wave, Chuck says, the House could see north of 25% turnover. On Iran, he echoes Chris Christie's warning that this war turns Trump into Jimmy Carter: Iran has issued a list of demands that amounts to an "F you" ransom note, is openly watching the American election calendar and timing its moves accordingly, and — just as in 1980 — the humiliation itself is the point. All of it, Chuck notes, was Trump's own choice. He closes somewhere unexpected: giving Mark Zuckerberg genuine credit. In his 6,500-word manifesto, Zuckerberg argued that the real danger of AI is the concentration of power, writing that hoping an absolute power will benevolently provide for humanity has historically never ended well — and committing Meta to a review process before models go public. Chuck notes the argument is being made by a deeply self-interested party and that the important parts got buried in what was really a debate with Sam Altman, but he singles out one thing worth emulating: Meta funneling data center tax revenue back into teacher bonuses and job training. Communities hosting this infrastructure have to win too, and he hopes more tech CEOs adopt that philosophy.


Then, Ben Wikler, the former Wisconsin Democratic Party chair and author of the new book This Is the Plan joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that Democrats keep making the same category error: they keep winning change elections and then failing to deliver change, because they're trying to fix policy without first fixing the system that determines who gets to make policy. Wikler's framing is memorable and a little cheeky — you have to win the ring of power and then cast it into Mount Doom — but his point is serious. When the right wins power, it immediately restructures the system to entrench itself; Democrats win and then govern as though the rules are fixed. His plan runs through the state level, where free and fair elections are actually secured, and demands ending the filibuster and reforming the Supreme Court, including term limits for justices, because campaign finance reform is impossible without a Court willing to allow it. Wikler argues America is in the greatest period of political instability in its history, that inequality now exceeds the Gilded Age, that gerrymandering has left millions of people without a meaningful vote, and that both party bases increasingly want to fight more than they want to win — while swing and non-voters have simply given up on the system itself. He rejects the tired rebuilders-versus-renovators binary: FDR's Social Security pitch was a huge swing, incrementalism was the only path to Obamacare, and the actual art of politics is starting from values and vision and then figuring out what can pass.
The conversation gets specific about Wisconsin and about trust. Wikler pushes back on the idea that Francesca Hong is too "Madison" for a statewide race, notes she's spent years traveling and listening across the state, and calls Tom Tiffany an election denier who is genuinely beatable in a cycle where affordability is the central issue. He and Chuck work through the puzzle of why Tony Evers' calm, steady approach succeeded where Biden's didn't — Evers came out forcefully against Dobbs, and, more fundamentally, you have to convince a majority of voters that government can actually work, which means doing what you said you'd do and then relentlessly telling people you did it. Wikler points to pandemic relief as the cautionary tale: those programs dramatically improved life for lower-income voters, the child tax credit cut child poverty in half, and then it all expired and Democrats got punished for the loss rather than credited for the gain — with an extension that had bipartisan support dying anyway, because the filibuster exists largely to deprive the other side of a win. He credits Ken Martin for investing in state parties, argues Democrats don't need a 50-state strategy so much as fifty different state strategies since the coalition looks different everywhere, and concedes that Trump has been the most successful Republican of this era, spawning an army of mini-mes modeling themselves on him. And yes, Chuck asks the obvious question — why not run for Senate yourself?
Finally, Chuck reveals his ToddCast Top 5 list of biggest non-presidential primary upsets, which David Crowley’s win taking the top spot. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and weighs in on the highly suspicious sale of the Los Angeles Lakers to Jared Kushner’s brother.

Thanks to our sponsors:
Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.

Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
04:00 Unpacking David Crowley’s win over Francesca Hong in WI
04:45 Crowley got out, then back in to the race… yet still won
05:45 If Hong had won, she would have become a face of the Dem party
06:15 Hong had past statements that would have been problematic
07:15 She would have been forced to talk about Thanksgiving, not economics
08:15 Her win would have been an easy story for Republicans to tell
08:45 Abdul El-Sayed is a winner here, harder to be lumped in with DSA
10:00 National Democrats are more relieved than they will admit
11:00 Independents don’t want either party to let extremes take over
12:00 Democrats can make the distinction between themselves & socialism
13:30 The progressives didn’t blow it, Peggy Flannagan won in Minnesota
15:00 African-American primary voters remain an obstacle for progressives
16:30 Progressives gear toward working class voters, yet are rejected by them
17:30 Not winning working class voters is more than a messaging glitch
18:30 Structure of the primary has major impact on success of progressives
19:15 Progressives run into trouble in higher turnout primaries
20:30 Open primaries result in less extremist nominees
21:15 Hong’s big unforced error was campaigning nationally in final weeks
22:00 Nationalizing your race is about fundraising
22:45 Media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appearances
23:30 National online audience & local electorate aren’t the same people
24:15 Mamdani had a disciplined message & succeeded, Hong didn’t
25:00 Ideological candidates can win when the electorate agrees with them
26:00 Ideological movements forget they can sound weird to the normies
26:30 The establishment was dangerously close to screwing this up
28:15 The establishment side of the race was a chaotic mess
29:15 Tony Evers had to mount an emergency rescue operation for Crowley
30:30 David Crowley isn’t very “establishment”, came from modest roots
31:30 Tony Evers deserves credit for putting his capital behind Crowley
32:30 Notable AOC, Sanders and top progressives didn’t endorse Hong
33:45 Getting into boutique cultural debates ends up being a problem
34:30 In Michigan & Wisconsin, the campaigns that physically showed up won
36:15 If Crowley wins & El-Sayed loses, there will be a clear lesson for Dems
38:15 Tony Evers didn’t fence sit, he picked a side and it worked
40:00 Flannagan’s win dispels idea of total repudiation of progressives
42:00 Flannagan had establishment credentials while being progressive
42:30 Progressives aren’t running the table, but are doing better this cycle
43:15 The Democratic house in ‘27 will be younger & slightly further left
44:30 Crowley’s campaign was largely about what he wasn’t
46:00 There could be multiple demographic “first” Democratic governors
47:45 Could these new primary winners end up on a presidential ticket?
49:45 Progressives are doing better, but haven’t won control of the Dem party
50:45 Democrats can blunt the narrative that the socialists are taking over
51:15 Trump endorsed candidates keep losing their primaries
51:45 Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota primary
52:45 Trump endorsed Darline Graham didn’t get 1/3rd of the vote
53:15 Graham isn’t a shoo-in in the runoff
55:30 Trump’s endorsement isn’t a guaranteed win, his grip is slipping
57:00 14-term congressman John Larson loses his primary
57:45 Most incumbents have lost reelection this year since 1970
58:15 In a wave election, could see over 25% turnover of the House
59:30 Chris Christie says Iran war will turn Trump into Jimmy Carter
1:00:00 Iran is humiliating Trump, and it was all Trump’s choice
1:00:30 Iran issues list of demands, basically an “F You” ransom note
1:01:30 Iran are watching the American election calendar & acting accordingly
1:02:15 In 1980, the humiliation of Carter was the point, Iran sent a message
1:03:30 Mark Zuckerberg deserves credit for something he said
1:04:15 Zuckerberg argued that AI driven concentration of power is the danger
1:04:45 He says there’s no benevolent superintelligence held by one company
1:05:15 Committed to a review board to sign off on models before going public
1:05:45 At least the argument is being made… even if by a self-interested party
1:06:30 Revenue from Meta data centers has been paid to teachers & job training
1:07:15 Meta reinvesting in communities with data centers is the right model
1:08:00 The manifesto was a debate with Sam Altman, buried the important things
1:09:15 Hope more tech CEO’s share his philosophy. Communities have to win too
1:16:45 Ben Wikler joins The Chuck ToddCast
1:17:45 Ben’s new book is “This Is The Plan”
1:18:00 What is the plan?
1:18:30 To get political change we need, we need to change the system
1:19:15 To secure free & fair elections, need to win at the state level
1:19:45 We need an end to the filibuster and Supreme Court reform
1:20:30 There’s no one office or candidate to get us out of this mess
1:22:30 We need to win the ring of power, then cast it into Mount Doom
1:23:00 When the right wins power, they immediately change systems
1:24:00 We keep having change elections, then not getting change
1:26:15 We’re in the greatest period of political instability in American history
1:29:15 Both party bases want to fight more than want to win
1:30:15 We’re so gerrymandered, people don’t really get a vote
1:31:45 Swing/Non voters have given up on the system itself
1:36:15 Are rebuilders or renovators going to win the argument?
1:36:45 FDR’s social security pitch was a big swing
1:39:15 Incrimentalism was the only way to pass Obamacare
1:40:00 The art of politics is values/vision, then figure out what can actually pass
1:41:00 A party should be able to change laws, then face the voters
1:42:15 Need to reform the Supreme Court to reform campaign finance laws
1:43:00 Advocate for term limits for Supreme Court justices in the book
1:43:30 Inequality is now worse than it was during the Gilded Age
1:44:45 Is Francesca Hong too “Madison” of a candidate for Wisconsin gov?
1:45:30 Hong has been traveling the state & listening for years
1:46:30 Wisconsin Dem gov primary has been topsy turvy
1:47:30 Tom Tiffany is an election denier & beatable candidate
1:48:45 Affordability is the central issue this election cycle
1:51:30 Why did “calming the waters” work for Tony Evers, but not Joe Biden?
1:52:15 Evers came out very strongly against Dobbs
1:53:00 You have to convince a majority of the public that government works
1:55:00 Trust is earned by doing what you say you’ll do, then highlighting it
1:56:30 Pandemic relief had a massive positive effect on lower income voters
1:57:00 Those programs stopped, and voters punished Dems for it
1:57:45 Child tax credit cut child poverty in half, great accomplishment for Dems
1:58:15 There was bipartisan support for extended tax credit, still didn’t get done
1:58:45 Filibuster is used to deprive the other side from getting a win
2:01:15 Politicians can lay out a succession plan, but voters get their say
2:02:45 Politicians are limited in setting out a succession plan
2:04:15 How big should the Democratic tent be?
2:05:15 The coalition looks different in different states
2:06:45 Donald Trump has been the most successful GOP politician of this era
2:07:30 Every Republican politician looks to Trump as the model
2:08:00 Trump has created an army of “mini-mes”
2:09:45 What Ken Martin is doing right: Building state parties
2:12:30 Democrats don’t need a 50 state strategy, they need 50 state strategies
2:13:30 You build a local brand through your actions over time
2:14:15 When did you first think about running for office?
2:16:15 Support Tammy Baldwin’s bill to provide live Packers games
2:17:45 Most excited about Jordan Love in the upcoming season
2:19:00 Why wouldn’t you run for the senate?
2:20:30 ToddCast Top 5 biggest non-presidential primary upsets
2:22:30 #5 Joe Crowley loses to AOC
2:23:30 #4 Carol Moseley Braun
2:24:15 #3 Andrew Gillum
2:25:15 #2 Eric Cantor
2:26:15 #1 David Crawley
2:27:45 Honorable mentions
2:29:15 Ask Chuck
2:29:30 If Talarico wins close, could partisan officials mess with the outcome?
2:32:30 What makes a vice presidency successful & who makes your top 5?
2:40:15 What does it say about us that voters knew who Trump was and reelected him?
2:44:15 Can Jewish leaders like Pritzker & Ossoff campaign effectively for El-Sayed?
2:46:45 Lakers sold again, for $12B to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger
2:47:45 Mark Walter bought Lakers 14 months ago for $10B, and is already out
2:48:30 This story could be nothing… but the details warrant suspicion
2:50:00 Mark Walter’s businesses are under federal investigation right now
2:51:00 Nobody has been charged or accused of anything yet
2:51:45 Why did Walter sell so fast is not a rhetorical question anymore
2:52:30 Kushner was set to buy a piece of the World Cup, until boycott threats
2:53:30 Anyone close to Trump will be assumed guilty until proven innocent
2:55:00 Maybe everything is on the up and up… but the details are shocking
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd unpacks David Crowley's astonishing photo-finish win over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin — a race Crowley dropped out of, re-entered with Tony Evers' backing, and then won by roughly 3,200 votes — and argues national Democrats are far more relieved than they'll ever admit. Had Hong won, she'd have become a face of the party while being forced to spend the fall answering for past statements about defunding police, abolishing prisons, and canceling Thanksgiving rather than talking about the economy, handing Republicans an absurdly easy story to tell. Chuck credits Tony Evers for refusing to fence-sit and mounting what amounted to an emergency rescue operation, while noting Crowley isn't remotely "establishment" — he came from genuinely modest roots and ran a campaign largely defined by what he wasn't. Chuck identifies Hong's central unforced error as nationalizing her race in the closing weeks, a fundraising-driven instinct in an era where media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appeals, forgetting that the national online audience and the local electorate are not the same people. Mamdani stayed disciplined and won; Hong drifted into boutique cultural debates and lost. But Chuck cautions against reading this as a repudiation of the left: Peggy Flanagan won in Minnesota, progressives are doing better this cycle than they have in years, and the 2027 House will be younger and slightly further left. The real structural lesson is that progressives struggle in higher-turnout and open primaries, still face a persistent obstacle with African American primary voters, and — most tellingly — keep getting rejected by the working-class voters they orient their entire message toward, which is more than a messaging glitch. Abdul El-Sayed emerges a quiet winner here, now much harder to lump in with the DSA, and Chuck notes that neither AOC nor Bernie ever endorsed Hong.
The rest of the monologue is a run of results that keep pointing the same direction. Trump-endorsed candidates keep losing primaries: Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota, Darline Graham didn't clear a third of the vote and is no lock in her runoff, and Chuck's read is that Trump's grip is measurably slipping. Fourteen-term Congressman John Larson lost his primary, part of the highest incumbent-loss rate since 1970 — in a genuine wave, Chuck says, the House could see north of 25% turnover. On Iran, he echoes Chris Christie's warning that this war turns Trump into Jimmy Carter: Iran has issued a list of demands that amounts to an "F you" ransom note, is openly watching the American election calendar and timing its moves accordingly, and — just as in 1980 — the humiliation itself is the point. All of it, Chuck notes, was Trump's own choice. He closes somewhere unexpected: giving Mark Zuckerberg genuine credit. In his 6,500-word manifesto, Zuckerberg argued that the real danger of AI is the concentration of power, writing that hoping an absolute power will benevolently provide for humanity has historically never ended well — and committing Meta to a review process before models go public. Chuck notes the argument is being made by a deeply self-interested party and that the important parts got buried in what was really a debate with Sam Altman, but he singles out one thing worth emulating: Meta funneling data center tax revenue back into teacher bonuses and job training. Communities hosting this infrastructure have to win too, and he hopes more tech CEOs adopt that philosophy.
Finally, Chuck reveals his ToddCast Top 5 list of biggest non-presidential primary upsets, which David Crowley’s win taking the top spot. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and weighs in on the highly suspicious sale of the Los Angeles Lakers to Jared Kushner’s brother.

Thanks to our sponsors:
Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
04:00 Unpacking David Crowley’s win over Francesca Hong in WI
04:45 Crowley got out, then back in to the race… yet still won
05:45 If Hong had won, she would have become a face of the Dem party
06:15 Hong had past statements that would have been problematic
07:15 She would have been forced to talk about Thanksgiving, not economics
08:15 Her win would have been an easy story for Republicans to tell
08:45 Abdul El-Sayed is a winner here, harder to be lumped in with DSA
10:00 National Democrats are more relieved than they will admit
11:00 Independents don’t want either party to let extremes take over
12:00 Democrats can make the distinction between themselves & socialism
13:30 The progressives didn’t blow it, Peggy Flannagan won in Minnesota
15:00 African-American primary voters remain an obstacle for progressives
16:30 Progressives gear toward working class voters, yet are rejected by them
17:30 Not winning working class voters is more than a messaging glitch
18:30 Structure of the primary has major impact on success of progressives
19:15 Progressives run into trouble in higher turnout primaries
20:30 Open primaries result in less extremist nominees
21:15 Hong’s big unforced error was campaigning nationally in final weeks
22:00 Nationalizing your race is about fundraising
22:45 Media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appearances
23:30 National online audience & local electorate aren’t the same people
24:15 Mamdani had a disciplined message & succeeded, Hong didn’t
25:00 Ideological candidates can win when the electorate agrees with them
26:00 Ideological movements forget they can sound weird to the normies
26:30 The establishment was dangerously close to screwing this up
28:15 The establishment side of the race was a chaotic mess
29:15 Tony Evers had to mount an emergency rescue operation for Crowley
30:30 David Crowley isn’t very “establishment”, came from modest roots
31:30 Tony Evers deserves credit for putting his capital behind Crowley
32:30 Notable AOC, Sanders and top progressives didn’t endorse Hong
33:45 Getting into boutique cultural debates ends up being a problem
34:30 In Michigan & Wisconsin, the campaigns that physically showed up won
36:15 If Crowley wins & El-Sayed loses, there will be a clear lesson for Dems
38:15 Tony Evers didn’t fence sit, he picked a side and it worked
40:00 Flannagan’s win dispels idea of total repudiation of progressives
42:00 Flannagan had establishment credentials while being progressive
42:30 Progressives aren’t running the table, but are doing better this cycle
43:15 The Democratic house in ‘27 will be younger & slightly further left
44:30 Crowley’s campaign was largely about what he wasn’t
46:00 There could be multiple demographic “first” Democratic governors
47:45 Could these new primary winners end up on a presidential ticket?
49:45 Progressives are doing better, but haven’t won control of the Dem party
50:45 Democrats can blunt the narrative that the socialists are taking over
51:15 Trump endorsed candidates keep losing their primaries
51:45 Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota primary
52:45 Trump endorsed Darline Graham didn’t get 1/3rd of the vote
53:15 Graham isn’t a shoo-in in the runoff
55:30 Trump’s endorsement isn’t a guaranteed win, his grip is slipping
57:00 14-term congressman John Larson loses his primary
57:45 Most incumbents have lost reelection this year since 1970
58:15 In a wave election, could see over 25% turnover of the House
59:30 Chris Christie says Iran war will turn Trump into Jimmy Carter
1:00:00 Iran is humiliating Trump, and it was all Trump’s choice
1:00:30 Iran issues list of demands, basically an “F You” ransom note
1:01:30 Iran are watching the American election calendar & acting accordingly
1:02:15 In 1980, the humiliation of Carter was the point, Iran sent a message
1:03:30 Mark Zuckerberg deserves credit for something he said
1:04:15 Zuckerberg argued that AI driven concentration of power is the danger
1:04:45 He says there’s no benevolent superintelligence held by one company
1:05:15 Committed to a review board to sign off on models before going public
1:05:45 At least the argument is being made… even if by a self-interested party
1:06:30 Revenue from Meta data centers has been paid to teachers & job training
1:07:15 Meta reinvesting in communities with data centers is the right model
1:08:00 The manifesto was a debate with Sam Altman, buried the important things
1:09:15 Hope more tech CEO’s share his philosophy. Communities have to win too
1:15:00 ToddCast Top 5 biggest non-presidential primary upsets
1:17:00 #5 Joe Crowley loses to AOC
1:18:00 #4 Carol Moseley Braun
1:18:45 #3 Andrew Gillum
1:19:45 #2 Eric Cantor
1:20:45 #1 David Crawley
1:22:15 Honorable mentions
1:23:45 Ask Chuck
1:24:00 If Talarico wins close, could partisan officials mess with the outcome?
1:27:00 What makes a vice presidency successful & who makes your top 5?
1:34:45 What does it say about us that voters knew who Trump was and reelected him?
1:38:45 Can Jewish leaders like Pritzker & Ossoff campaign effectively for El-Sayed?
1:41:15 Lakers sold again, for $12B to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger
1:42:15 Mark Walter bought Lakers 14 months ago for $10B, and is already out
1:43:00 This story could be nothing… but the details warrant suspicion
1:44:30 Mark Walter’s businesses are under federal investigation right now
1:45:30 Nobody has been charged or accused of anything yet
1:46:15 Why did Walter sell so fast is not a rhetorical question anymore
1:47:00 Kushner was set to buy a piece of the World Cup, until boycott threats
1:48:00 Anyone close to Trump will be assumed guilty until proven innocent
1:49:30 Maybe everything is on the up and up… but the details are shocking
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With 84 days to the midterms and a six-state primary night ahead, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on Chuck's least-hedged read of the cycle: Democrats haven't had a good summer, but Republicans have had a worse one, and every macro trend points to something in the neighborhood of 30 House seats and six or seven Senate seats. The only thing holding him back from calling it a pasting is the Democratic brand problem — and they dig into the polling behind it, including why Hillary Clinton's warning that the socialism-and-communism attack could land is worth taking seriously. That leads to the sharpest segment of the episode: whether Abdul El-Sayed needs to give a version of the Kennedy "I don't work for the Pope" or Obama race speech about being a Muslim American, why the traditional consultant advice to ignore it is wrong, and where he'd give it. They then flip the question to the other side, asking whether Josh Shapiro, Jon Ossoff, Rahm Emanuel, or JB Pritzker will face a parallel demand to publicly separate loyalty to the Constitution from loyalty to Israel.
The back half is a clinic in reading political spin. Tim Scott's claim that Republicans will hold 54 Senate seats prompts a broader riff on why partisans now get punished for telling the truth, and why both the political industry and the media have built incentives against saying what's obvious. They break down AOC's remarkable weekend — announcing she's freezing her eggs, then telling Jon Karl she hasn't ruled out 2028 — and what it signals about staking a claim to the progressive lane before El-Sayed can. Chuck makes the case that parenthood is a real asset in presidential politics, and they assess whether Ossoff, now climbing the prediction markets, has the hunger and stamina for it, plus why Shapiro sometimes reads as a try-hard. They close with a genuinely angry exchange about Bill Cassidy's Blanche vote, the threats reshaping how senators vote, and a Nats-and-Reds baseball detour.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 84 days out and a six-state primary night ahead
00:45 Previewing the primaries
01:37 Republicans had a worse summer than Democrats
02:49 Trump makes it harder. Congress did nothing to earn reelection
03:14 Why the macro says 30 House seats and 6-7 Senate seats
04:02 Does the nominee even matter in an environment this bad?
05:14 Hillary Clinton's warning about the socialism-communism attack
06:14 In wave years, the losing party always thinks it's found a lifeline
06:45 Where the communism attack could actually work
08:27 Did "Comrade Kamala" actually help Trump in 2024?
09:42 The attack only lands if a seed has already been planted
10:47 The mailbag question: Islamophobia in the Michigan race
11:11 Using El-Sayed's full name isn't even a dog whistle
12:10 Should El-Sayed give an Islam speech?
12:55 Why the consultant advice — stay on affordability — is wrong here
14:13 The Obama-and-Reverend-Wright precedent
15:45 Mike Rogers, Hassan Piker & a false attribution in circulation
17:24 Jackie Robinson, Kennedy, and breaking barriers
20:15 The flip side: will a Jewish candidate face the same demand?
22:10 The line each of them may have to draw on Netanyahu
23:02 Fever swamp vs. what voters actually care about
23:33 The insulting premise, and the Catholic parallel from the 1950s
25:05 Tim Scott tells Manu Raju Republicans will have 54 seats
26:51 Why partisans now get punished for telling the truth
28:49 Scott on Paxton, and what you're required to say out loud
30:42 Why they do the live streams — no election-night patty cake
31:47 The rare politicians who still say it plainly
32:41 AOC announces she's freezing her eggs
33:26 AOC says she's open to 2028
34:45 The El-Sayed factor: a swing-state progressive with more juice
36:23 Chuck's argument: you're a stronger candidate if you're a parent
37:52 Bush, Obama, Biden & families as political assets
38:51 Even Trump's kids softened him in 2016
41:08 The Howard Stern statistic about listeners who hate you
41:24 Ossoff passes Newsom in the Kalshi and Polymarket 2028 odds
42:10 Why Ossoff clearly has the ambition
44:08 Ossoff and Pritzker could bridge the party's divide
45:17 Pritzker's own money and his own record
46:07 Does Mark Kelly have the hunger? Does Wes Moore?
47:47 Where Shapiro crosses from wanting it to trying too hard
48:28 Des Moines in November, and why nobody likes a try-hard
49:18 Cassidy & Blanche
50:40 The part that doesn't get reported: threats to families
51:21 You signed up to put the public ahead of yourself
53:15 Trump tells Punchbowl the voters are angry at Republicans, not him
53:46 Will he actually spend the super PAC money?
54:04 The truth-serum question: would Trump rather be replaced by a Democrat?
54:20 Nats sweep the Reds
55:32 What is wrong with the Cincinnati Reds?
57:42 The Nats' 34-year-old analytics manager
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the Greenland oil expedition, an episode so strange it borders on parody: an American oil company drilling in defiance of another country's laws, with Trump's blessing, and — the detail that breaks the brain — Dr. Phil hired to document the whole thing. It's a fitting overture for a week in which the Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as Attorney General 50-49 at four in the morning before fleeing town for recess, with only Collins and Murkowski defecting. Chuck admits he was wrong; he never thought Blanche would actually get there. What galls him is the surrender it represents. Bill Cassidy's rationale — that Trump "needs someone to tell him no" — is laughable given that Blanche has said outright that the rule of law belongs to Trump and the DOJ won't be independent. John Cornyn's shrug that "there's nothing we can do to rein in the president" is, Chuck argues, the confession of a coward: senators possess the authority and simply refuse to use it, giving away what little leverage they had. The debate has now been reduced to whether the Attorney General is the people's lawyer or the president's.
Then takes on the question of why Democratic voters keep rewarding progressives whose politics they don't actually share, and his answer is that half the Democratic electorate did not suddenly become socialist — they're furious about 2024, and specifically about leadership deciding the nominee for them. They didn't dislike Harris; they wanted a choice, and they'd watched the establishment coalesce around Biden in 2020 to produce a presidency that ended with Trump's return. Progressives are the only Democrats willing to say the party screwed up, and voters will give you enormous latitude on the cure if they trust your diagnosis. Chuck illustrates it with a Washington Post story about the Conn brass instrument factory in Ohio, bought by Trump-supporting, tariff-championing investor John Paulson and now closing as production moves offshore — where the disillusioned employees don't plan to vote at all, because they feel the system has failed them for decades. He believes the opening in American politics right now isn't centrism, it's breaking up an establishment that voters believe is more worried about losing donors than losing their votes. He wonders aloud whether the answer is a military leader — he's intrigued by retired General Chris Donahue, essentially Captain America on paper, pushed out by Trump and Hegseth, with credibility across the aisle. Americans are exhausted by being told the other half of the country is the bad guy, they're desperate for honesty and a reboot of a captured government, and the space is wide open for someone to fill it. But Chuck’s closing caution matters: the system is badly screwed up, and that still isn't a reason to burn it all down.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit two different but related events: the signing of the Social Security Act by FDR, and Richard Nixon announcing price and wage controls to combat inflation. Chuck argues that America has always flirted with socialism even if we call it by another name. He also answers listeners questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
00:30 Trump’s crazy Greenland oil adventure
01:15 Trump is just ignoring the laws of another country
01:45 Craziest detail is oil company hired Dr. Phil to document the expedition
02:15 Trump has gone out of his way to alienate European allies
02:45 Oprah gave us Dr. Oz & Dr. Phil… which is not a good thing
06:45 U.S. senate leaves town for recess after passing funding bill
07:15 Todd Blanche is now the confirmed AG for the United States
08:00 Republicans passed none of the things they said are priorities
09:00 GOP has a trifecta and still can’t get anything done
10:00 Was wrong about Blanche, didn’t think he’d actually get confirmed
10:45 Confirmed 50-49, not surprising Collins & Murkowski defected
11:45 Cassidy’s rationale was “Trump needs someone to tell him no”
12:15 Cassidy’s rationale is laughable
13:15 Even Bill Barr had a line he wouldn’t cross with Trump
14:45 The senate gave away what little leverage they have with Trump
16:00 John Cornyn says “there’s nothing we can do to rein in the president”
16:30 These Republicans are cowards, won’t exercise their authority*
17:00 These senators need to do their job
18:00 Blanche said the rule of law belongs to Trump, DOJ won’t be independent
19:00 Debate is now if AG is the people’s lawyer or the president’s lawyer
19:45 If he were alive, Trump would have nominated Roy Cohn
20:30 You don’t want presidents deciding who gets investigated
21:30 Trump got involved with Reflecting Pool vandal case THIS WEEK
22:30 Trump’s entire life has been about wearing people down
23:15 Republicans have politicized DOJ more than any previous admin
23:45 MAGA’s premise is that two wrongs do make a right
24:15 Does anybody in congress understand the constitution?
25:30 Confirming Blanche will cause more public distrust in DOJ
26:30 Founders never wanted the president to determine rule of law
27:00 Senate didn’t get crypto or college sports bill passed before recess
27:45 Republicans claim SAVE act is existential, didn’t pass it
28:45 Why do voters entertain progressives that don’t align with them?
29:15 Half the democratic electorate didn’t suddenly become socialist
30:30 Democratic voters are pissed off, think party messed up in 2024
31:00 Voters are mad leadership decided who the ‘24 nominee would be
31:30 Voters didn’t dislike Harris, but they wanted a choice
32:30 In 2020, the establishment coalesced around Biden
33:15 Biden’s presidency was a failure since it resulted in Trump returning
34:00 Progressives are the only Dems saying the party screwed up
35:30 Like Trump, the progressives are saying leadership is full of shit
36:15 Voters will give you latitude on the cure if they trust your diagnosis
37:00 WaPo story about Conn factory closing & private equity
38:00 Factory is in Ohio, been making brass instruments
38:45 Factory is closing and laying off all the employees
39:30 Conn was bought by John Paulson, Trump supporter who supports tariffs
40:30 Paulson is moving production offshore after arguing against it
42:00 Plant employees were completely disillusioned with politics
43:00 Employees feel like the system has left them down for decades, won’t vote
44:30 Romney’s loss was due to millions of white voters sitting out entirely
45:15 Trump’s appeal brought those voters back into the electorate
47:15 Voters reward candidates that can diagnose & call out their problems
48:00 Trump proved politically dormant voters can be reactivated
48:30 There’s always a third destination for voters… the couch
49:00 If the two parties don’t reform themselves, they risk being replaced
50:15 The opening isn’t centrism, it’s breaking up the establishment
51:15 Politics requires huge amounts of money, results in capture
52:15 Voters believe reps are more worried about losing donors than their vote
53:00 Competence and morality are not the same thing in politics
53:45 Leaders need to admit that they screwed everything up
54:30 Americans are desperate for a reset & are embracing revolutionaries
55:00 A military leader might be exactly what we need in next president
55:45 Intrigued by retired general Chris Donahue & his resume
56:45 Donahue is basically Captain America & was forced out by Trump & Hegseth
58:15 Someone like Donahue could have the credibility across the aisle
59:30 Politics won’t acknowledge failure if they think it helps the other side
1:00:00 Americans are desperate for honesty & morality in politics
1:01:15 It’s exhausting being told the other half of America is the bad guys
1:03:15 Voters want to preserve the Republic, but don’t trust the leadership
1:04:00 Voters want a reboot, and a government that isn’t captured
1:05:00 The political space is waiting for someone to fill this vacuum
1:06:00 The system is screwed up, but we shouldn’t burn it all down
1:11:00 ToddCast Time Machine - Where America embraces socialism
1:12:30 Socialist policies have come from presidents of both parties
1:13:45 FDR signs the Social Security Act - Nixon announces price & wage controls
1:14:45 Americans worry about prosperity, not ideological consistency
1:17:15 Capitalism was being questioned after the Great Depression
1:17:45 FDR wanted to repair, not replace capitalism
1:18:30 Social Security started as a much smaller program than it is today
1:19:15 Congress continued adding to the program over the years
1:21:15 America imposed price & wage controls during WW2 that went beyond Nixon
1:22:00 August 15, 1971 - Nixon announces price & wage controls
1:23:15 Nixon was desperate to stop inflation
1:24:15 Administration announced ceilings on meat prices, caused shortages
1:25:30 The controls were lifted right before the election
1:26:45 We have plenty of socialist policies called by another name
1:27:45 The policies give the sense of individual control
1:28:30 Americans are allergic to government control over their choices
1:29:15 Government under Trump is acquiring stakes in American companies
1:31:00 America has always been more socialist than we like to admit
1:32:45 Ask Chuck
1:33:00 Are college educated Republican voters on the journey leftward?
1:37:00 How should Abdul El-Sayed respond to racist & Islamophobic attacks?
1:45:30 Do candidates on the same ballot create measurable coattails?
1:50:00 Any chance Republicans voted for El-Sayed thinking he’d be easier to beat?
1:53:00 Was Pirro’s dropping of Reflecting Pool case an offramp for Trump?
1:56:00 How does an everyday person help make real political change?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.