The Chuck ToddCast

Bestselling novelist Daniel Silva — creator of the Gabriel Allon series — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a conversation that starts with the craft of spy fiction and quickly becomes something closer to a threat assessment. Silva's newest plot turns on drones, and he's blunt that this isn't speculative: he believes it's a matter of time before a drone carries out an assassination or a mass-casualty attack. He talks about the strange responsibility of writing a fictional event that could plausibly happen next month, why he deliberately withholds visual detail so readers build the scene themselves, and what he learned reporting out how modern kidnappings and ransom negotiations actually work. The darker current running underneath is his read on American intelligence: the FBI is no longer the same place, the U.S. is jettisoning allies and hollowing out its agencies, and Silva poses the question a novelist is uniquely positioned to ask — if you're the GRU right now, where would you most want an asset placed? He notes that the best assets often don't know they're assets, that NATO held a crisis meeting about Trump, and that this is precisely the moment to be putting the screws to a vulnerable Putin, since Ukraine has victory in sight and isn't desperate for any deal.
The conversation turns personal when Chuck asks how Silva handles Israel's collapsing global reputation in a series built around an Israeli intelligence officer. Silva says the shift was entirely foreseeable, that he has no interest in writing about Gaza, and that what saddens him most is the "fortress Israel" mindset — a country founded on European-style socialist ideals now convinced it can go it alone, siloed from the world, while antisemitism surges globally in a way he warns only ever needs the right set of circumstances to reignite. He and Chuck range across the forces reshaping the century: giant corporations approaching the power of nation-states, a new generation of the ultra-wealthy who simply don't believe in philanthropy, AI's capacity to wipe out the knowledge economy, and Silva's conviction that the next great political crisis may be a climate-driven natural disaster — noting that the last major El Niño produced famines that killed millions, that today's migration patterns are already climate-driven, and that people are dying right now as a direct result of cutting humanitarian aid. He's unsparing on writing and AI), amused and appalled that Trump has turned the National Mall into a mess with a reflecting pool gone "Kermit green," and closes on the question every prolific novelist gets asked and rarely answers honestly: does he ever actually rest?
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Daniel Silva joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:00 Gabriel Allon is ageless
02:45 How much do you put yourself into Gabriel Allon?
03:30 Gabriel’s character allows Daniel to pursue things he’s interested in
05:15 Potentially creating a spin-off series
06:30 Vibe of the book series is European art
07:15 How did you learn about modern kidnappings and negotiations
09:15 Not writing with great visual detail to allow readers to imagine it
10:15 We are going to have a major incident triggered by drones
11:15 Ukraine has become the drone specialists of the world
12:00 Drones will eventually carry out an assassination or mass casualty event
13:15 Any trepidation creating a fictional event that could actually happen?
14:15 There was an emergency drone incident in Copenhagen
14:45 Europeans are already very nervous about impacts of drones
15:30 There are cameras everywhere in modern society
16:45 The level of criminality & corruption in the world is staggering
18:00 The current FBI is no longer the same place
18:45 We are jettising allies and destroying our intelligence agencies
19:30 If you are the GRU… where would you want an asset to be?
20:30 There are different types of intelligence assets
21:00 Some of the best assets don’t realize they are assets
22:15 Crisis meeting held at NATO headquarters about Trump
25:30 We should be putting the screws to Putin right now, he’s vulnerable
26:15 Ukraine has victory in sight, they aren’t desperate for a deal
27:00 How do you tackle Israel’s reputation in the world in the books?
29:30 The changes to Israel’s reputation were foreseeable
30:00 Don’t want to write about the war in Gaza
31:00 Is all hope for a two state solution gone?
33:45 There’s a “fortress Israel” mindset, they think they can do it alone
34:15 Is Gabriel Allon still a zionist?
35:00 Israel was founded with tenets of European style socialism
36:00 It’s sad seeing Israel becoming so siloed from the world
37:30 There’s been a major resurgence of antisemitism
39:15 It only takes the right set of circumstances to reignite antisemitism
40:30 Giant corporations are becoming as powerful as nation states
42:00 The new generation of ultra wealthy don’t believe in philanthropy
42:45 AI has the ability to wipe out the knowledge economy
44:00 The next great political crisis might be a climate driven natural disaster
44:45 The last great El Nino created massive famine, killing millions
45:30 The current migration patterns are climate driven
46:00 People are dying as a direct result of cutting humanitarian aid
49:30 Trump has turned the national mall into a mess
50:15 The reflecting pool is now “Kermit green”
51:30 If you could write your next book about anything, what would it be?
52:30 Don’t think he could write non-fiction, too many novels to write
54:15 If you use AI to do your writing, then that isn’t writing
57:30 Anthropic CEO gave a reasoned answer to AI military applications
58:00 Could have an AI version of yourself that lives forever
59:15 Do you ever take a rest from writing?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with a story that seems small and turns out to be a perfect miniature of everything wrong with this Pentagon: a Blue Angels flyover at Pensacola Beach came in too low, the pilot who made the honest mistake felt terrible about it — and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, without bothering to establish a single fact about what happened, seized the moment to gloat and own the libs. Chuck calls Hegseth an absolute clown and a fake soldier, argues the incident is a window into a Pentagon where the boss cares more about winning an online argument than about the safety of the people he commands, and where the entire "military testosterone" discourse — Hegseth's fixation on creating "supertrooper" fighting men is both dumb and genuinely dangerous. His verdict: a great American military culture is being actively degraded. He extends the same argument to ICE, where the violence has been entirely predictable — the officer involved in the latest shooting had enormous red flags in his background, and the agency appears to have no meaningful vetting process at all.
He also explains why, contrary to much of the commentary, he wasn't alarmed by Trump's primetime election-denial address: it was a nothingburger. Trump has no evidence, which is why he keeps turning to cranks — his endorsement of Mike Lindell tells you everything — and there's no policy response attached to his own foreign-interference allegations, since China has faced no sanction whatsoever for what Trump claims it did. He argues American elections are extraordinarily hard to overturn precisely because the system is decentralized, that Trump is too lazy to become a Putin or a Mao… A more disciplined president would frighten Chuck far more. Chuck sees a forever war taking shape in Iran: the strategy amounts to throwing kinetic weight at the problem and hoping the regime collapses, while Iran fights the asymmetric war it always planned, targeting Gulf states and now civilian survival infrastructure — hitting desalination plants could trigger a crisis lasting years — and nobody in Washington actually knows how to win. He closes with a genuinely important profile of Undersecretary Elbridge Colby, the intellectual architect of the new right's foreign policy and a favorite of JD Vance, whose vision of American retreat from its allies would effectively be the policy of a President Vance: Colby has trashed Mark Carney's "middle power" strategy and declared that no country is entitled to the American defense industry — which, notes, misses that buying military hardware is a 30-year bet on trusting an ally, and middle powers who conclude they can be coerced by Washington will simply take their money somewhere else. Quick hits on a messy Wisconsin governor's race (Tony Evers built no infrastructure and left no obvious heir in one of the country's most misunderstood swing states) and Tuesday's Arizona primary round things out.
Then, bestselling novelist Daniel Silva — creator of the Gabriel Allon series — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a conversation that starts with the craft of spy fiction and quickly becomes something closer to a threat assessment. Silva's newest plot turns on drones, and he's blunt that this isn't speculative: he believes it's a matter of time before a drone carries out an assassination or a mass-casualty attack. He talks about the strange responsibility of writing a fictional event that could plausibly happen next month, why he deliberately withholds visual detail so readers build the scene themselves, and what he learned reporting out how modern kidnappings and ransom negotiations actually work. The darker current running underneath is his read on American intelligence: the FBI is no longer the same place, the U.S. is jettisoning allies and hollowing out its agencies, and Silva poses the question a novelist is uniquely positioned to ask — if you're the GRU right now, where would you most want an asset placed? He notes that the best assets often don't know they're assets, that NATO held a crisis meeting about Trump, and that this is precisely the moment to be putting the screws to a vulnerable Putin, since Ukraine has victory in sight and isn't desperate for any deal.
The conversation turns personal when Chuck asks how Silva handles Israel's collapsing global reputation in a series built around an Israeli intelligence officer. Silva says the shift was entirely foreseeable, that he has no interest in writing about Gaza, and that what saddens him most is the "fortress Israel" mindset — a country founded on European-style socialist ideals now convinced it can go it alone, siloed from the world, while antisemitism surges globally in a way he warns only ever needs the right set of circumstances to reignite. He and Chuck range across the forces reshaping the century: giant corporations approaching the power of nation-states, a new generation of the ultra-wealthy who simply don't believe in philanthropy, AI's capacity to wipe out the knowledge economy, and Silva's conviction that the next great political crisis may be a climate-driven natural disaster — noting that the last major El Niño produced famines that killed millions, that today's migration patterns are already climate-driven, and that people are dying right now as a direct result of cutting humanitarian aid. He's unsparing on writing and AI), amused and appalled that Trump has turned the National Mall into a mess with a reflecting pool gone "Kermit green," and closes on the question every prolific novelist gets asked and rarely answers honestly: does he ever actually rest?
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to draw parallels between the arguments in modern American politics to the argument between Richard Nixon and Nikita Khrushchev in the infamous “kitchen debate” and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
02:15 Pensacola Beach is the home of the Blue Angels
03:15 Low flyover from Blue Angels generated massive controversy
03:45 Hegseth has allowed unsafe flyovers in the past
04:15 Hegseth’s leadership at the Pentagon has been awful
05:00 Hegseth used the flyover to try to “own the libs”
05:45 The low flyover at the beach was an honest mistake by the pilot
07:30 Online discourse about flyover was both sides trying to prove their point
08:30 Hegseth didn’t even bother to figure out the facts about the incident
09:00 The pilot felt terrible about the mistake, while Hegseth gloated
11:00 Why Chuck isn’t alarmed by Trump’s election denial primetime speech
11:45 Trump has tested constitutional boundaries unlike any other president
13:30 Trump’s endorsement of Mike Lindell says everything
14:00 Trump doesn’t have evidence of fraud, he turns to election denial cranks
15:15 Trump’s speech was a big fat nothingburger
16:30 Trump wanted government to interfere in the 2020 election
17:30 There’s no policy response to Trump’s allegations about foreign interference
18:30 China hasn’t received any sanction or response to allegations
20:00 Trump has lackeys cherry pick facts to try to sew mistrust in elections
22:00 It is extraordinarily difficult to overturn an American election
22:45 The electoral system is decentralized making it harder to meddle with
23:30 A president more disciplined than Trump would be a bigger worry
24:30 We need to repair structural weaknesses in the democracy
25:15 Trump is too lazy to become a dictator like Putin or Mao
26:00 Trump has his sycophants… but they all fear jail too
27:15 Trump wants other people to risk themselves to keep him in power
28:30 We’re on the road to a “forever war” in Iran
29:00 The plan is just to throw kinetic weight & hope the regime collapses
29:45 Iran’s whole strategy is asymmetric, targeting Gulf states
30:15 Iran is now targeting civilian survival infrastructure
30:45 Hitting desalination plants could create a yearslong crisis
31:30 Administration keeps doubling down on the same strategy
33:30 Nobody in Washington knows how to win the war
34:30 Pete Hegseth is an absolute clown… a fake soldier
35:00 The military testosterone discourse is both dumb and dangerous
36:00 Undersecretary Elbridge Colby has a big role in shaping policy
37:30 Colby wants America to retreat from the world & our allies
38:30 Colby has been embraced by JD Vance & the new right
39:15 Colby’s policies would be those of a President JD Vance
40:30 Allies realize they can be coerced by America
42:30 Colby trashed the “middle power” strategy of Mark Carney
43:00 Colby says nobody is entitled to the U.S. military industry
44:00 Buying military hardware is a 30 year bet on trusting an ally
45:00 Middle powers will look elsewhere to buy their military equipment
46:15 Hegseth wants to create testosterone driven “supertroopers”
47:00 Women aren’t being offered a similar screening
48:00 Jesse Watters comments on testosterone were beyond awful
48:30 Most watched cable host was making sexual assault jokes
49:15 Military has had a longstanding issue with sexual assault
50:00 Young men are marketed testosterone from influencers & now government
51:00 Taking outside testosterone shuts down natural production of it
51:45 Taking testosterone has major negative side effects
53:00 Our great military culture is being destroyed by Trump
53:30 The violence from ICE officers has been entirely predictable
54:15 DHS under Trump never deserves the benefit of the doubt
55:15 Officer involved in shooting had massive red flags in his background
56:00 ICE doesn’t appear to have any vetting process for recruits
1:00:00 Wisconsin governor’s race has become a political mess
1:01:00 Tony Evers didn’t build a strong infrastructure around him
1:01:30 Evers didn’t set up an obvious heir in the Democratic party
1:03:00 The party establishment hasn’t responded to all parts of the base
1:03:45 Wisconsin is one of the most misunderstood swing states
1:05:00 Democrats in Wisconsin have to make the political center comfortable
1:07:30 Arizona primary coming up on Tuesday
01:14:00 Daniel Silva joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:15:00 Gabriel Allon is ageless
01:16:45 How much do you put yourself into Gabriel Allon?
01:17:30 Gabriel’s character allows Daniel to pursue things he’s interested in
01:19:15 Potentially creating a spin-off series
01:20:30 Vibe of the book series is European art
01:21:15 How did you learn about modern kidnappings and negotiations
01:23:15 Not writing with great visual detail to allow readers to imagine it
01:24:15 We are going to have a major incident triggered by drones
01:25:15 Ukraine has become the drone specialists of the world
01:26:00 Drones will eventually carry out an assassination or mass casualty event
01:27:15 Any trepidation creating a fictional event that could actually happen?
01:28:15 There was an emergency drone incident in Copenhagen
01:28:45 Europeans are already very nervous about impacts of drones
01:29:30 There are cameras everywhere in modern society
01:30:45 The level of criminality & corruption in the world is staggering
01:32:00 The current FBI is no longer the same place
01:32:45 We are jettising allies and destroying our intelligence agencies
01:33:30 If you are the GRU… where would you want an asset to be?
01:34:30 There are different types of intelligence assets
01:35:00 Some of the best assets don’t realize they are assets
01:36:15 Crisis meeting held at NATO headquarters about Trump
01:39:30 We should be putting the screws to Putin right now, he’s vulnerable
01:40:15 Ukraine has victory in sight, they aren’t desperate for a deal
01:41:00 How do you tackle Israel’s reputation in the world in the books?
01:43:30 The changes to Israel’s reputation were foreseeable
01:44:00 Don’t want to write about the war in Gaza
01:45:00 Is all hope for a two state solution gone?
01:47:45 There’s a “fortress Israel” mindset, they think they can do it alone
01:48:15 Is Gabriel Allon still a zionist?
01:49:00 Israel was founded with tenets of European style socialism
01:50:00 It’s sad seeing Israel becoming so siloed from the world
01:51:30 There’s been a major resurgence of antisemitism
01:53:15 It only takes the right set of circumstances to reignite antisemitism
01:54:30 Giant corporations are becoming as powerful as nation states
01:56:00 The new generation of ultra wealthy don’t believe in philanthropy
01:56:45 AI has the ability to wipe out the knowledge economy
01:58:00 The next great political crisis might be a climate driven natural disaster
01:58:45 The last great El Nino created massive famine, killing millions
01:59:30 The current migration patterns are climate driven
02:00:00 People are dying as a direct result of cutting humanitarian aid
02:03:30 Trump has turned the national mall into a mess
02:04:15 The reflecting pool is now “Kermit green”
02:05:30 If you could write your next book about anything, what would it be?
02:06:30 Don’t think he could write non-fiction, too many novels to write
02:08:15 If you use AI to do your writing, then that isn’t writing
02:11:30 Anthropic CEO gave a reasoned answer to AI military applications
02:12:00 Could have an AI version of yourself that lives forever
02:13:15 Do you ever take a rest from writing?
02:16:30 ToddCast Time Machine July 24, 1959
02:17:00 Nixon and Krushchev host the “Kitchen Debate”
02:18:00 The countries were showing off their way of life - Capitalism vs Communism
02:18:45 Soviets set up a display in New York to show off their society
02:19:30 Khrushchev believed history would belong to the communists
02:20:00 The answer to the Soviet display was a model of an American home
02:20:45 The argument was that a middle class worker could afford that home
02:21:15 America showed it offered equality of opportunity, not outcome
02:22:00 Krushchev and Nixon debated knowing the world would hear it
02:23:00 Krushchev didn’t believe Americans actually lived that well
02:23:30 Nixon argued that competition inspired innovation and growth
02:25:00 Market capitalism proved to be the more dynamic economic system
02:25:30 There are echoes of the Kitchen Debate in modern American discourse
02:27:00 The Soviet Union disappeared, the debate hasn’t
02:27:15 Ask Chuck
02:27:30 Is MLB lockout avoidable? The state of baseball card collecting?
02:38:00 Is Trump’s erosion of norms a form of the incrementalism you champion?
02:41:30 What rights are D.C. & Puerto Rico residents still missing beside representation?
02:47:15 What goes into a decision to run for office?
02:50:45 MAGA just a rework of Reagan’s slogan?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with a story that seems small and turns out to be a perfect miniature of everything wrong with this Pentagon: a Blue Angels flyover at Pensacola Beach came in too low, the pilot who made the honest mistake felt terrible about it — and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, without bothering to establish a single fact about what happened, seized the moment to gloat and own the libs. Chuck calls Hegseth an absolute clown and a fake soldier, argues the incident is a window into a Pentagon where the boss cares more about winning an online argument than about the safety of the people he commands, and where the entire "military testosterone" discourse — Hegseth's fixation on creating "supertrooper" fighting men is both dumb and genuinely dangerous. His verdict: a great American military culture is being actively degraded. He extends the same argument to ICE, where the violence has been entirely predictable — the officer involved in the latest shooting had enormous red flags in his background, and the agency appears to have no meaningful vetting process at all.
He also explains why, contrary to much of the commentary, he wasn't alarmed by Trump's primetime election-denial address: it was a nothingburger. Trump has no evidence, which is why he keeps turning to cranks — his endorsement of Mike Lindell tells you everything — and there's no policy response attached to his own foreign-interference allegations, since China has faced no sanction whatsoever for what Trump claims it did. He argues American elections are extraordinarily hard to overturn precisely because the system is decentralized, that Trump is too lazy to become a Putin or a Mao… A more disciplined president would frighten Chuck far more. Chuck sees a forever war taking shape in Iran: the strategy amounts to throwing kinetic weight at the problem and hoping the regime collapses, while Iran fights the asymmetric war it always planned, targeting Gulf states and now civilian survival infrastructure — hitting desalination plants could trigger a crisis lasting years — and nobody in Washington actually knows how to win. He closes with a genuinely important profile of Undersecretary Elbridge Colby, the intellectual architect of the new right's foreign policy and a favorite of JD Vance, whose vision of American retreat from its allies would effectively be the policy of a President Vance: Colby has trashed Mark Carney's "middle power" strategy and declared that no country is entitled to the American defense industry — which, notes, misses that buying military hardware is a 30-year bet on trusting an ally, and middle powers who conclude they can be coerced by Washington will simply take their money somewhere else. Quick hits on a messy Wisconsin governor's race (Tony Evers built no infrastructure and left no obvious heir in one of the country's most misunderstood swing states) and Tuesday's Arizona primary round things out.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to draw parallels between the arguments in modern American politics to the argument between Richard Nixon and Nikita Khrushchev in the infamous “kitchen debate” and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
02:15 Pensacola Beach is the home of the Blue Angels
03:15 Low flyover from Blue Angels generated massive controversy
03:45 Hegseth has allowed unsafe flyovers in the past
04:15 Hegseth’s leadership at the Pentagon has been awful
05:00 Hegseth used the flyover to try to “own the libs”
05:45 The low flyover at the beach was an honest mistake by the pilot
07:30 Online discourse about flyover was both sides trying to prove their point
08:30 Hegseth didn’t even bother to figure out the facts about the incident
09:00 The pilot felt terrible about the mistake, while Hegseth gloated
11:00 Why Chuck isn’t alarmed by Trump’s election denial primetime speech
11:45 Trump has tested constitutional boundaries unlike any other president
13:30 Trump’s endorsement of Mike Lindell says everything
14:00 Trump doesn’t have evidence of fraud, he turns to election denial cranks
15:15 Trump’s speech was a big fat nothingburger
16:30 Trump wanted government to interfere in the 2020 election
17:30 There’s no policy response to Trump’s allegations about foreign interference
18:30 China hasn’t received any sanction or response to allegations
20:00 Trump has lackeys cherry pick facts to try to sew mistrust in elections
22:00 It is extraordinarily difficult to overturn an American election
22:45 The electoral system is decentralized making it harder to meddle with
23:30 A president more disciplined than Trump would be a bigger worry
24:30 We need to repair structural weaknesses in the democracy
25:15 Trump is too lazy to become a dictator like Putin or Mao
26:00 Trump has his sycophants… but they all fear jail too
27:15 Trump wants other people to risk themselves to keep him in power
28:30 We’re on the road to a “forever war” in Iran
29:00 The plan is just to throw kinetic weight & hope the regime collapses
29:45 Iran’s whole strategy is asymmetric, targeting Gulf states
30:15 Iran is now targeting civilian survival infrastructure
30:45 Hitting desalination plants could create a yearslong crisis
31:30 Administration keeps doubling down on the same strategy
33:30 Nobody in Washington knows how to win the war
34:30 Pete Hegseth is an absolute clown… a fake soldier
35:00 The military testosterone discourse is both dumb and dangerous
36:00 Undersecretary Elbridge Colby has a big role in shaping policy
37:30 Colby wants America to retreat from the world & our allies
38:30 Colby has been embraced by JD Vance & the new right
39:15 Colby’s policies would be those of a President JD Vance
40:30 Allies realize they can be coerced by America
42:30 Colby trashed the “middle power” strategy of Mark Carney
43:00 Colby says nobody is entitled to the U.S. military industry
44:00 Buying military hardware is a 30 year bet on trusting an ally
45:00 Middle powers will look elsewhere to buy their military equipment
46:15 Hegseth wants to create testosterone driven “supertroopers”
47:00 Women aren’t being offered a similar screening
48:00 Jesse Watters comments on testosterone were beyond awful
48:30 Most watched cable host was making sexual assault jokes
49:15 Military has had a longstanding issue with sexual assault
50:00 Young men are marketed testosterone from influencers & now government
51:00 Taking outside testosterone shuts down natural production of it
51:45 Taking testosterone has major negative side effects
53:00 Our great military culture is being destroyed by Trump
53:30 The violence from ICE officers has been entirely predictable
54:15 DHS under Trump never deserves the benefit of the doubt
55:15 Officer involved in shooting had massive red flags in his background
56:00 ICE doesn’t appear to have any vetting process for recruits
1:00:00 Wisconsin governor’s race has become a political mess
1:01:00 Tony Evers didn’t build a strong infrastructure around him
1:01:30 Evers didn’t set up an obvious heir in the Democratic party
1:03:00 The party establishment hasn’t responded to all parts of the base
1:03:45 Wisconsin is one of the most misunderstood swing states
1:05:00 Democrats in Wisconsin have to make the political center comfortable
1:07:30 Arizona primary coming up on Tuesday
01:13:15 ToddCast Time Machine July 24, 1959
01:13:45 Nixon and Krushchev host the “Kitchen Debate”
01:14:45 The countries were showing off their way of life - Capitalism vs Communism
01:15:30 Soviets set up a display in New York to show off their society
01:16:15 Khrushchev believed history would belong to the communists
01:16:45 The answer to the Soviet display was a model of an American home
01:17:30 The argument was that a middle class worker could afford that home
01:18:00 America showed it offered equality of opportunity, not outcome
01:18:45 Krushchev and Nixon debated knowing the world would hear it
01:19:45 Krushchev didn’t believe Americans actually lived that well
01:20:15 Nixon argued that competition inspired innovation and growth
01:21:45 Market capitalism proved to be the more dynamic economic system
01:22:15 There are echoes of the Kitchen Debate in modern American discourse
01:23:45 The Soviet Union disappeared, the debate hasn’t
01:24:00 Ask Chuck
01:24:15 Is MLB lockout avoidable? The state of baseball card collecting?
01:34:45 Is Trump’s erosion of norms a form of the incrementalism you champion?
01:38:15 What rights are D.C. & Puerto Rico residents still missing beside representation?
01:44:00 What goes into a decision to run for office?
01:47:30 MAGA just a rework of Reagan’s slogan?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

John Opdycke — founder and president of Open Primaries, one of the leading organizations pushing to end closed partisan primaries — joins the Chuck Toddcast to make the case that the exclusion of independent voters is one of the great overlooked scandals of American democracy. Opdycke walks through the byzantine patchwork of voter and party registration rules that vary wildly by state, explains why so many independents sit out partisan primaries entirely, and argues that after 30 years of closed primaries the cumulative effect has been a system where the parties function as both the umpires and the players — a structure that simply doesn't work. He makes the bipartisan argument that tax dollars shouldn't fund the private nominating contests of what are essentially private organizations, and is pointedly critical of Democrats for actively fighting open primary initiatives.He notes that policies with 80% public support routinely fail to pass because voters don't actually have a meaningful say.
The conversation turns tactical and forward-looking, with Opdycke offering a sober assessment of the broader reform landscape and its persistent failures. He argues the ranked-choice voting movement has made serious tactical errors, that the party in power always fights ranked choice voting, and that the modern reform and independent movement suffers from a fundamental lack of a compelling public face — as well as from philanthropic funders who attach outcome expectations that distort the work. Opdycke is candid that third parties fare poorly in nearly every electoral system, that Ross Perot's Reform Party is now essentially a shell, and that the American people still don't trust the reform movement — but he sees real opportunity in specific fights, particularly mobilizing Florida's independents to change the law and pursuing top-two systems that would genuinely open the door to competition. He notes the striking statistic that 10,000 people per week are changing their voter registration, laments the general lack of curiosity (and polling) about who swing voters actually are, and argues there's meaningful left-right overlap among libertarians that reformers could tap. They explore whether the redistricting wars could create a backlash against the two-party system, why there are only about 25 competitive House districts left, and why several states are now actually moving back toward closed primaries. They close with a clear-eyed take on 2028: the reform movement needs a credible presidential candidate, and with 2028 shaping up to be a wild and unpredictable year, the opening for that kind of disruption may be wider than it's been in decades.
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Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 John Opdycke joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:45 Voter & party registration rules vary greatly by state
03:00 Why do so many independents sit out partisan primaries?
05:30 NYC Democratic party actively fought open primary initiative
07:00 There have been cumulative effects of 30 years of closed primaries
08:15 Voter apathy across the board for voting in primaries
09:00 Independents showing strong support for Open Primaries
10:45 Parties have every right to choose their candidates
11:15 Parties now are both the umpires and the players, it doesn’t work
13:00 There’s bipartisan arguments for not using tax dollars for private orgs
14:15 Why are Democrats fighting against open primaries?
16:15 Ross Perot’s Reform Party is basically a shell at this point
19:00 Independent voters are incorrectly understood as in the middle
19:30 Independents are moderate in temperament, not ideology
21:15 Politics post-Clinton/Gingrich designed to keep independents down
22:15 The modern reform/independent movement lacks a face
23:15 Philanthropic funders come with expectations of outcomes
24:15 Ranked choice voting movement has made serious tactical errors
26:30 Party in power always fights ranked choice voting
28:00 Exclusion of independent voters is a Jim Crow level violation of rights
28:30 Policies with 80% support don’t pass, voters don’t have a say
30:00 Third parties don’t do well in almost any electoral system
31:15 Swing voters are ignored until October
31:45 Which states offer best opportunities for a third party?
32:30 Independents require the Democrat to drop out in senate races
36:00 Could the redistricting wars create backlash to the two party system?
36:45 There’s only 25 competitive house district
37:30 Leaders in several states now looking to go back to closed primaries
38:45 The American people don’t trust the Reform movement
40:45 Mobilizing independents in Florida to change the law
43:15 There’s left-right overlap amongst the libertarians
44:45 There’s a lack of curiosity about independent/swing voters
46:45 10,000 people per week change their voter registration
47:30 We need a flood of polling and research about independent voters
48:45 What does success look like for Open Primaries this year?
51:45 A top two system would open up the door to competition
53:15 There are fewer “generic” candidates, much more variance
55:45 The Reform movement needs a presidential candidate in ‘28
59:30 Perot had to scare both parties to get them to make reforms
1:01:00 Have to creative in ‘28, it will be a wild year in politics
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Chuck Todd opens with the news that Trump is planning a primetime address to push election denialism, and uses it as a lens to examine how thoroughly fealty to the 2020 fraud lie has become the price of admission in Trump's Washington. He argues Todd Blanche should have no place in the Department of Justice, that he failed his test under questioning from John Cornyn, and that the weaponization fund could become the red line that finally moves Collins, Tillis, and Cornyn — because an inability to confirm Blanche would be a clear sign of Trump's weakening grip on the GOP. He points to the surreal spectacle of Jay Clayton refusing to answer Jon Ossoff's simple question of who won the 2020 election, looking like a ridiculous sycophant in the process, and to Trump endorsing MyPillow's Mike Lindell — the single biggest election conspiracy theorist in the country, a man who's lost every court case and been forced to pay $5 million over his false claims. He reminds listeners that it was Trump's own appointees who ran election security in 2020, that every major election denier from Giuliani on down has been forced to retract in court, and that Georgia's full hand recount matched the machines exactly — the only real constant in Trumpworld is that any outcome Trump dislikes gets branded fraud.
He then turns to the mounting deaths during ICE encounters, arguing the violence isn't an anomaly but an entirely predictable consequence of an agency whose culture has been deliberately reshaped: DHS recruited candidates with violent psychological profiles using white nationalist slogans, imposed quotas that put officers under enormous stress, and pushed them into vehicle stops that former officials admit ICE has no experience conducting. In two fatal shootings the men killed weren't even the targets, witnesses have disputed the DHS account, there's no body cam footage, and Chuck argues DHS has zero credibility, even as Trump clearly wants the theater and the violent confrontations. On Iran, Chuck is blunt that having less leverage than before the war started is simply what losing a war looks like: the administration badly underestimated Iran's willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz, Iran deliberately decentralized its regime to survive decapitation strikes, and after three failed military strategies in five months, Trump has spent the entire war negotiating against himself — meaning the best America can now hope for is a managed stalemate, because Iran can't beat the U.S. military, it just has to wait out an increasingly impatient Trump. He closes on a lighter note with the House passing a bill to make daylight saving time permanent, offering the contrarian reminder that the public always wants permanent DST until they actually get it — kids forced to go to school in pitch darkness, and the simple reality that what's good for you in the evening is bad for someone else in the morning.
Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of professional athletes best positioned to run for political office and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
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Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
03:00 Trump planning primetime address to push election denialism
04:15 Todd Blanche should have no place in the Department of Justice
05:00 Blanche failed the test when questioned by John Cornyn
05:30 Weaponization fund could be the red line for Collins, Tillis and Cornyn
07:00 Inability to confirm Blanche would show Trump’s weakening grip on GOP
08:15 John Ossoff asked simple question Jay Clayton wouldn’t answer
09:00 Clayton refused to answer “who won the 2020 election?”
09:30 You must agree with election denialism to work for Trump
10:30 Clayton looked like a ridiculous sycophant
12:00 Administration convinced deportations will help in midterms
12:30 Trump is completely misreading the situation, but nobody will tell him
13:15 Trump gives his endorsement to Mike Lindell from MyPillow
13:45 Trump supporting biggest election conspiracy theorist in the country*
14:30 Lindell was forced to pay $5 million due to his false claims
15:15 Lindell has lost every time his claims ended up in court
15:45 Lindell is a lunatic
16:45 The only constant for Trump is “it’s fraud” if he doesn’t get his way
17:30 It was Trump appointees who ran election security in 2020
18:15 The election fraud claims from Trumpworld kept changing
19:15 Guliani was forced to refute his election denial in court
20:00 Every election denier has had to retract in a court of law
21:15 Georgia conducted a full recount and it matched the machines
23:00 Multiple deaths have occurred during encounters with ICE
24:00 In the two shootings the men killed were not the targets of the operation
24:45 Witnesses have challenged DHS account & there’s no body cam footage
25:15 DHS has no credibility, can’t trust their account of events
26:00 ICE announced they have paused most vehicle stops nationwide
28:00 Trump wants the theater with ICE, he wants violent confrontations*
29:30 The violence isn’t an anomaly, it’s entirely predictable
30:00 DHS’s recruiting for ICE has changed the culture of the organization
31:00 ICE targeted candidates with a violent psychological profile
32:15 ICE used white nationalist slogans in recruitment ads
34:00 The culture of ICE promotes violent confrontation
34:45 Administration’s quotas has put officers under stress
36:45 Former ICE officials admit the agency doesn’t have experience for vehicle stops
37:30 Tragedy isn’t a risk under these circumstances… it’s a guarantee
38:15 Federal law enforcement has turned into a theater of dominance
39:00 ICE set itself up for a war… and we’re seeing the consequences
39:45 Iran has more leverage than before the war… that’s called losing
40:15 Houthis may close another chokepoint
41:15 The U.S. military always knew the Strait of Hormuz was the ballgame
41:45 Administration underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait
42:30 Iran set up the regime to be decentralized in case of decapitation strikes
43:15 We’ve tried 3 major military strategies in 5 months & none worked
44:30 Trump has negotiated against himself for the entire war
46:00 This has now become a fight over leverage
47:00 Every week the war grinds on, the more unpopular it becomes
47:30 Iran can’t beat the U.S. military, they just need to wait out Trump
48:15 The best we can hope for is a managed stalemate
48:45 House passed a bill to make daylight savings time permanent
49:45 The public always wants permanent daylight savings, until they get it
50:15 Kids are forced to get to school in the dark, results in deaths
51:30 What’s good for you in the evening is bad for someone else in the morning
57:00 ToddCast Top 5 American athletes that could transition to politics
1:01:00 #5 Travis Kelce
1:02:15 #4 Paul Skenes
1:03:15 #3 Patrick Mahomes
1:04:00 #2 Steph Curry
1:05:00 #1 Caitlin Clark
1:08:15 Ask Chuck
1:08:30 Favorite old 40s and 50s films?
1:14:45 Your work made a real difference in my life
1:16:15 Are there any states where a congressperson could do what Farage did in UK?
1:19:45 Why don’t presidential campaigns create buzz around VP selection?
1:24:15 What signs would show us we’re turning the corner on this divisive era?
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