Global Security Briefing

What does the Russian wartime economy look like beneath the official data – and what are the implications for regime stability?
In early June, President Putin took to the stage at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum – Russia's flagship annual showcase for investors and international media – and delivered a characteristically assured account of an economy not just surviving but adapting. Sanctions, he suggested, had been absorbed. Western predictions of collapse had amounted to little more than wishful thinking.
But if we look more closely at the current state of the Russian economy beyond the Kremlin narratives, the picture is more distorted. This is a classic war economy where growth is almost entirely a function of state defence orders, public spending has reached historically elevated levels, and the civilian economy is being systematically drained of labour, capital and technology to feed the military-industrial complex.
In this episode, Natia Seskuria, Senior Research Fellow, Russian and Eurasian Security, is joined by RUSI Associate Fellow Charles Hecker, to discuss Russia's wartime economy and explore the following questions:
What does the Russian wartime economy actually look like?
As economic strain intensifies and the logic of state predation deepens, what are the implications for regime stability?
If the conflict extends to another three to five years, how will Western corporate engagement with Russia evolve – and what risks does that trajectory create for sanctions coherence and Euro-Atlantic security?

Are we seeing the potential for a diplomatic off-ramp in the latest phase of the Iran crisis, or just another pause in a much longer confrontation?
The broad picture at the beginning of June 2026 is that the US and Iran appear to be trying to move from immediate crisis management to a more structured negotiation, but the process remains extremely fragile. A reported 60-day ceasefire extension would, in theory, create space for talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing some economic pressure on Iran, and eventually addressing nuclear concerns. But the hardest issues remain unresolved: Iran's enriched uranium, the future of its nuclear programme, sanctions relief, security guarantees, and the sequencing of who moves first.
In this episode, Professor Ali Ansari, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, International Security at RUSI, joins host Dr Burcu Ozcelik, to explore the following topics:
- What Tehran wants from the current round of talks.
- Understanding Iran's insistence that Lebanon be included in the ceasefire.
- How much room does the Iranian leadership have to compromise, after war and economic pressure, in the renewed negotiations with Washington?
- After spending decades studying the way the US fights wars, has Iran read the US more accurately than Washington and Israel have read Iran?

Dr Olivia Cheung and Lyle Morris join Philip Shetler-Jones to assess President Trump's Beijing visit and the future of US-China relations.
President Trump's visit to Beijing comes at a pivotal moment in US-China relations, with strategic rivalry, economic tensions, and regional security concerns continuing to shape the world's most consequential bilateral relationship.
In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Philip Shetler-Jones is joined by Dr Olivia Cheung, Lecturer in Politics, King's College London and Lyle Morris, Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security at Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, to examine the significance of the visit, what each side hoped to achieve, and what the meetings reveal about the future trajectory of relations between Washington and Beijing.
This episode explores:
- The historical and geopolitical context behind President Trump's visit to China.
- China's priorities and how Xi Jinping may be approaching relations with the United States.
- What each side achieved politically, economically and strategically during the visit.
- The implications for Taiwan and US allies in the Indo-Pacific region.
- What the meetings reveal about the future direction of US-China relations.
- Wider implications for global security, international order, and partners such as the United Kingdom.

Dr Neil Melvin and Dr Philip Shetler Jones discuss Brexit, European security, the Indo-Pacific and the changing global order.
In his final episode as host of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin reflects on how international security has evolved in the period since the podcast launched in 2021 and what these changes mean for the United Kingdom and its allies.
Joined by Dr Philip Shetler Jones, Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security at RUSI, the discussion examines the major geopolitical shifts reshaping Europe, the Indo-Pacific and the wider international system.
Topics discussed include:
Brexit and the UK's changing security role in Europe.
Russia's war against Ukraine and its impact on Europe.
The future of US and European security relations.
The UK's Indo-Pacific strategy and 'Global Britain'.
US-China competition and global security.
Multipolarity, BRICS and the Global South.
Arctic and High North security.
The key security challenges facing the UK over the next five years.
The episode also marks Neil Melvin's final appearance as host of Global Security Briefing after nearly 120 episodes exploring regional and international security developments. Stay tuned for future Global Security Briefings coming soon.

As the Middle East is facing grave uncertainty against the backdrop of what is being called the 'Third Gulf War', Ankara is managing an uneasy relationship with Iran.
Turkey is projecting itself as a more consequential regional actor across a variety of regional security spaces and is often described as a 'middle power'. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Dr Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Burcu Ozcelik, RUSI Senior Research Fellow, to analyse Turkey's relationship with Iran and the main limits of Turkey's regional approach to diplomacy.
This episode explores:
· How Turkey approaches peacebuilding in the Middle East.
· What Turkey's regional role is across different theatres in the Caucasus, Somalia and Iran.
· The limits of eastern Mediterranean security architecture that excludes Turkey.
· What British and European policymakers should learn from Turkey's approach to diplomacy.
This podcast episode is part of a policy series for the 'Turkey's Peacebuilding in a Disordered Middle East' project of the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) network.
The Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) in Berlin is funded by Stiftung Mercator and the Federal Foreign Office. CATS is the curator of the CATS Network, an international network of think-tanks and research institutions working on Turkey.