Sharp Tech with Ben Thompson

Ben and Andrew react to a killer round of earnings for Spotify and Daniel Ek’s final earnings call, including thoughts on Spotify’s transformation of the music industry, how a record company oligopoly helped create the definitive tech bundle, and why Spotify’s personalization requires an addendum to aggregation theory. From there: The difference between AI spending at Google and Amazon, why the AI buildout should be funded by debt, un-optimized tech companies, and the logic and risks of Amazon’s AI future. At the end: Reactions to a viral essay on AI job loss, a note about the Princeton Law Review, an ad man strikes back after Ben’s Anthropic criticism, and thoughts on Giannis’ investment in Kalshi.

Ben and Andrew react to a bloodbath for public Saas companies with thoughts on the future of software in the AI era, beginning with why companies choose to outsource solutions to Saas companies today, and why those moats may be more durable than skeptics think. Then: Why SaaS skepticism remains fair, including an analogy to the newspapers in the ’90s, the absence of anti-fragility, a variety of headwinds that will impact pricing power, start-ups with superior cost structures, and looming consolidation and layoff questions. At the end: The biggest SaaS company of them all and what Microsoft’s roadmap should look like, a response to data center skepticism, supply and demand for hyperscalers, why Ben hated the Anthropic Super Bowl ads, should AI hallucinations be good case law?, and a Vision Pro announcement.

Unpacking the latest round of Meta earnings, including Wall Street’s about-face after last year’s CapEx squeamishness, whether Zuckerberg’s astronomical CapEx plans are more evidence he yearns to be more than an app maker, why Meta owes a thank you to Apple, Apple and Meta in the AI era, and a word about Instagram messages. Then: Are we in an “AI is a Bubble” bubble? Thoughts on mass adoption among software makers, demand that looks insatiable, product managers vs. engineers, and the era of perfect competition among employees. From there: Why hyperscalers should not solve the CapEx problem by co-investing in TSMC, why Ben sympathizes with TSMC, and a note on Samsung. At the end: Andrew shares his experience with Bucks-Lakers in the Vision Pro and reviews Ben’s takes.

TSMC’s pricing power in the AI era, a brief history of TSMC’s culture and CapEx decisions, and ongoing capacity constraints that should be pushing tech companies to build up competitors. Then: Thoughts on Netflix after Ben’s interview with co-CEO Greg Peters, including Wall Street’s concerns despite enormous success, whether and how the Warner Brothers acquisition could be a counter to YouTube, and the difference between Netflix content and user generated YouTube content. At the end: Questions about the Curt Cignetti of tech, a victory lap on OpenAI, advertising in chatbots, advertising as a force for good, and Andrew’s Starbucks habit.

A call for Apple to finally be confident in its Vision Pro hardware, a brief history of broadcasting sports on TV, and yet another reminder that immersive live experiences should be the killer use case that brings users to the Vision Pro platform. Then: Q&A on the AVP, a question on the Siri and Gemini partnership, and thoughts Ben’s interview with United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby and on how tech spearheaded the company’s revival. At the end: Questions on Meta Compute and the end of Aggregation Theory, Grok and its offensive bikini problems, and follow-ups on Baumol’s Cost Disease, humans wanting humans, streaming economics, and venting about the Green Bay Packers.