Palisades Gold Radio

Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group provides a comprehensive analysis of the gold market, arguing that we are in the middle of multiple bullish cycles. He identifies a long-term “gold renaissance” that began in 2000-2002, with a second leg up starting in 2019. While gold has pulled back from recent highs, Christian believes this is a consolidation within a larger uptrend that could continue for another year or two. He emphasizes that the primary drivers are a deeply hostile macroeconomic and political environment, including economic stagnation, rising global debt, and a breakdown in international cooperation, which continue to push investors toward gold as a safe haven.

Christian dismisses the idea of a gold price “reset” or a return to a gold standard, calling such notions a fantasy due to the market’s size and liquidity. He explains that central banks are buying gold for diversification, not as a settlement currency, and that the dollar remains the preferred reserve asset despite its problems. He also provides a nuanced view on silver, noting it will likely see sharp price spikes but will underperform gold on a long-term average basis due to its smaller market and industrial demand dynamics, which are being impacted by substitution in solar panels.

On the current dip, Christian suggests the floor may have been reached, as many investors and central banks are waiting for lower prices to buy. He states he will only consider selling his gold when he sees concrete signs of a more stable and optimistic outlook, specifically two consecutive fiscally responsible U.S. administrations—a scenario he does not expect to see in his lifetime. He advises caution in the junior mining sector, emphasizing that strong management is more critical than the quality of the properties themselves.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Introduction
00:04:40 – Key Economic & Political Problems
00:08:35 – Global Debt & Treasury Market Dynamics
00:13:00 – Will the Dollar Collapse? Avoiding Doom
00:15:29 – Parabolic Money Printing & Fed Capacity
00:18:36 – Gold Monetary Reset: Fantasy vs. Reality
00:22:40 – Gold as a Settlement Currency? BRICS Myth
00:28:19 – Current Gold Dip: Attractive Add or More Downside?
00:30:49 – When Will This Bull Market End?
00:33:01 – Historical Fiscal Stringency & Market Cycles
00:37:14 – Silver Thesis: Less Optimistic Than Gold
00:40:38 – Silver Spikes vs. Long-Term Performance
00:41:12 – Gold Miners: Treacherous but Lucrative
00:42:26 – About CPM Group & Free Resources

Links

https://x.com/CPMGroupLLC

https://www.cpmgroup.com/

mailto:info@cpmgroup.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos

About the Guest

Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.

Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.

He has advised many of the world’s largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.

Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, argues that the next few decades will be radically different from the last, driven by the unsustainability of Western social welfare states, massive global debt, and the end of the post-1971 dollar system. He describes a “long cycle” where decades of easy credit and overconsumption have led to a “winter” phase, characterized by demographic crises and a fragile financial system. Gromen highlights the core dilemma: the U.S. must reshore its industrial base to remain a sovereign power, but doing so requires massive inflation, which would destroy the bond market. He frames this as a choice between saving the dollar or saving the bond market, arguing the only viable path is to let the dollar fall and inflate away the debt, effectively destroying bondholders’ real returns.

Gromen explains that reshoring is nearly impossible without China’s cooperation, as China dominates critical supply chains. He uses electricity generation and auto consumption as metrics to show the U.S. has stagnated in real terms for 20 years, while China has surged. He predicts a multi-decade period of secular inflation, with gold as the ultimate beneficiary. Gromen sees gold’s rise as a necessary mechanism for the U.S. to retain sovereignty, as a higher gold price allows the country to rebuild its industrial and military base. He notes that the infrastructure for a gold revaluation is already in place, citing the indictment of JP Morgan’s gold desk, Basel III changes, and China’s gold-for-oil trade, and suggests a U.S. gold-backed bond could trigger a massive arbitrage that forces gold much higher.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:09 – Are the next decades wildly different?
00:02:38 – Long cycles, social welfare, and overconsumption
00:05:47 – Unsustainability of Western social democracy
00:09:13 – Can reindustrialization save the West?
00:12:25 – Why can’t the US reshore without China?
00:14:27 – US vs China: Rising vs declining power
00:20:36 – Save the dollar or save the bond market?
00:26:30 – Generational bear market for bonds
00:30:01 – Will all currencies fall against gold?
00:32:14 – Foreign holdings of US debt and crisis risk
00:36:13 – Is this a multi-decade inflationary phenomenon?
00:41:29 – Could a gold reset solve the crisis?
00:48:40 – Price discovery mechanics for gold
00:57:26 – Gold miners vs bullion in current environment

Links

https://x.com/lukegromen

https://fftt-llc.com/

About the Guest

Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC’s flagship weekly research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s customers.

In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC (“Forest for the Trees”), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.

Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.

John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, joins Palisades Gold Radio to discuss the transformative shift in metals and mining over the past five years. He explains that the sector has moved from being ignored by institutional investors to becoming a strategic necessity, driven by commodity price breakouts, strong balance sheets, and geopolitical factors like China’s weaponization of critical minerals. Ciampaglia emphasizes that gold remains in a bull market despite a sharp correction, noting that fundamentals such as debt levels, stagflation, and geopolitical risk remain unchanged. He highlights central bank buying, particularly by China, as a key driver, with countries rotating from paper assets like U.S. treasuries into physical gold and other hard assets.

The conversation covers the role of gold as a monetary metal, with Ciampaglia drawing parallels to the 1970s stagflation era. He discusses the potential for increased investor demand as institutions reconsider traditional portfolio allocations, citing Morgan Stanley’s shift toward a 60-20-20 model with gold as a new component. On silver, he notes its volatility and the impact of India’s import restrictions, which have removed a major physical buyer, but remains constructive on long-term supply deficits and industrial demand. Ciampaglia also addresses the risks of paper markets and leverage, advocating for fully allocated physical metals through Sprott’s products.

Ciampaglia provides insights into the mining complex, praising improved management discipline and free cash flow generation, while acknowledging short-term market noise and uncertainty. He discusses copper’s strategic importance, driven by electrification, AI data centers, and supply constraints, and highlights Sprott’s unique physical copper trust. For uranium, he outlines a structural supply deficit, the shift back to nuclear energy as baseload power, and the long lead times for new mines, concluding that incentive pricing remains ahead. He directs listeners to Sprott’s website for educational resources and insights.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction and John’s Background
00:02:21 – Why Now for Metals and Mining?
00:06:46 – Gold Bull Market and Current Correction
00:12:42 – Stagflation Parallels to the 1970s
00:16:34 – Gold as a Monetary Metal and Reset
00:21:24 – Investor Demand and Portfolio Allocation
00:25:06 – Risks of Paper Gold and Futures Markets
00:28:44 – Silver Market Manipulation and India
00:33:04 – Silver’s Bull Case and Volatility
00:37:10 – Gold Mining Stocks and Leverage
00:42:33 – Sentiment and Wall of Worry for Miners
00:45:20 – Copper: Physical vs Miners
00:52:42 – Uranium Supply Deficit and Nuclear Revival
01:03:05 – Closing Thoughts and Resources

Links

https://sprott.com/

About the Guest

John Ciampaglia is Chief Executive Officer, Sprott Asset Management and Senior Managing Partner, Sprott Inc. He has over 30 years of investment industry experience and oversees Sprott’s public market investment strategies, as well as serving as the Portfolio Manager for the company’s physical commodity funds. Mr. Ciampaglia plays an active role in developing new investment strategies, acquisitions, marketing and strategic partnerships. Before joining Sprott in 2010, he was a Senior Executive at Invesco Canada, serving as Senior Vice President, Product Development. Prior to joining Invesco Canada, he spent more than four years at TD Asset Management. Mr. Ciampaglia earned a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from York University, is a CFA® charterholder and a Fellow of the Canadian Securities Institute.

Colonel Douglas Macgregor, a decorated combat veteran and former advisor to the U.S. Secretary of Defense, joins Palisades Gold Radio to discuss the escalating geopolitical landscape and its implications for global markets. He argues that the world is de-globalizing and the post-1945 order is collapsing, with Washington trapped in a struggle for global hegemony it can no longer afford. Macgregor dismisses any notion of a negotiated resolution in the Middle East, predicting a massive air assault on Iran that will likely fail to achieve its objectives, potentially leading to the use of tactical nuclear weapons—a dangerous precedent that could legitimize their use by other nations.

Macgregor highlights the strategic failures of U.S. military power, noting that despite unprecedented defense spending, the U.S. cannot defend its allies against Iranian and Houthi missile attacks. He points to the destruction of Gulf oil infrastructure and the collapse of U.S. credibility as key consequences. This military impotence, combined with financial strain, is accelerating the shift toward resource sovereignty and regional blocs. He emphasizes that the U.S. is losing the competition for critical minerals and rare earths, particularly in Africa, while China and Russia are gaining ground, and suggests that Canada and Latin America offer the best opportunities for U.S. resource security.

On the economic front, Macgregor argues that the Federal Reserve has lost control over inflation and that the U.S. is heading toward financial destruction. He predicts a commodity super cycle driven by underinvestment and geopolitical fragmentation, with gold prices set to rise dramatically, potentially reaching $10,000 an ounce by 2030. He dismisses short-term market fluctuations as noise, framing gold as a long-term hedge against the inevitable deterioration of the U.S. economy and the collapse of the current global financial system.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:21 – Middle East Escalation Assessment
00:03:11 – De-globalization and Hegemony
00:05:41 – Elections and Policy Continuity
00:06:32 – Preparatory Strikes on Iran
00:07:23 – Massive Air Assault Expected
00:08:47 – Tactical Nuclear Weapons Question
00:12:57 – Dangerous Precedent of Nukes
00:14:21 – Saudi War and US Credibility
00:16:21 – China Containment and Military Limits
00:19:21 – Energy and Mining Impact
00:22:50 – Conspiracy Theories Debunked
00:25:47 – Resource Sovereignty and Trade
00:31:27 – China’s Gold Accumulation and Remonetization

Guest Links

https://douglasmacgregor.com

https://x.com/DougAMacgregor

https://substack.com/@coloneldoug

https://www.youtube.com/@macgregorwarriordiplomacy

https://breakingdefense.com/author/doug-macgregor/

About the Guest

Douglas Macgregor is a decorated combat veteran, an author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant.

Macgregor was commissioned in the Regular Army in 1976 after 1 year at VMI and 4 years at West Point. In 2004, Macgregor retired with the rank of Colonel. In 2020, the President appointed Macgregor to serve as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense, a post he held until President Trump left office. He holds an MA in comparative politics and a PhD in international relations from the University of Virginia.

Macgregor is widely known inside the U.S., Europe, Israel, Russia, China and Korea for both his leadership in the Battle of 73 Easting, the U.S. Army’s largest tank battle since World War II, and for his ground breaking books on military transformation: Breaking the Phalanx (Praeger, 1997) and Transformation under Fire (Praeger, 2003). Macgregor’s recommendations for change in Force Design and “integrated all arms-all effects” operations have profoundly influenced force development in Israel, Russia and China. In 2010, Macgregor traveled to Seoul, Korea to advise the ROK Ministry of Defense on force design. In 2019, Transformation under Fire was selected by Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi, Chief of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), as the intellectual basis for IDF transformation. His fifth book, Margin of Victory: Five Battles that Changed the Face of Modern War from Naval Institute Press is available in Chinese, as well as, English and will soon appear in Hebrew.

In 28 years of service Macgregor taught in the Department of Social Sciences at West Point, commanded the 1st Squadron, 4th Cavalry, and served as the Director of the Joint Operations Center at SHAPE during the 1999 Kosovo Air Campaign for which he was awarded the Defense Superior Service medal. In January 2002, at Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s insistence the USCENTCOM Commander listened to Colonel Macgregor’s concept for the offensive to seize Baghdad. The plan was largely adopted, but assumed no occupation of Iraq by U.S. Forces.

Macgregor has also testified as an expert witness before the Senate and House Armed Services Committees and appeared as a defense analyst on Fox News, CNN, BBC, Sky News and public radio. He is fluent in German.

Josef Schachter, author and president of the Schachter Energy Report, joins Palisades Gold Radio to assess the global energy system amid shifting Middle East geopolitics. Despite ongoing conflict, crude flows out of the Persian Gulf are running above pre-war levels—Saudi Arabia is even discounting barrels into Asia—yet refined products tell a different story. LNG, sulfur, nitrogen, and fertilizer exports remain constrained, and diesel shortages persist as Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries remove key supply from global markets.

Schachter outlines three scenarios for the Iran conflict and assigns rough probabilities: a durable peace deal (30%), a limited air campaign that resolves nothing (roughly one-third), and a wider regional war (roughly one-third). With WTI near $97 and Brent near $105, he estimates $22–$25 per barrel of risk premium is priced in against an equilibrium value of roughly $75. A credible peace deal, in his view, could take another $20–$25 off crude—but he cautions that restocking strategic reserves, rebuilding damaged infrastructure, and restoring commercial inventories will take time, delaying rather than derailing the commodity super cycle he expects to run into the mid-2030s.

On equities, Schachter argues energy stocks are discounting $70 oil while cash flow multiples of 2–3x sit well below proved developed producing reserve values—a classic cycle-bottom setup. He explains his framework for evaluating producers, the criteria he applies to entrepreneurial names (management track record, large land positions, infrastructure access, and supportive jurisdictions), and why Canadian producers offer cheaper entry points and greater drilling inventory than U.S. peers. He also covers natural gas, where growing LNG export capacity and data-center power demand could unlock higher prices, and outlines where investors can find his research and buy-signal alerts.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Introduction and Middle East war outlook
00:00:46 – Energy system: crude flows vs product shortages
00:04:54 – US election impact on markets and Iran policy
00:06:32 – Saudi production, diesel shortage, refinery issues
00:08:49 – Logistics, restocking, and commodity super cycle
00:15:19 – Escalation scenario: oil at $120-130 and risks
00:21:26 – Refinery damage and Persian Gulf escalation risks
00:24:07 – Odds of peace vs war and oil risk premium
00:27:16 – War delays super cycle; demand and restocking
00:29:12 – Long-term commodity bull market until 2034-36
00:36:14 – Buying the dip: integrated vs small producers
00:38:01 – What to look for in entrepreneurial explorers
00:42:00 – Natural gas stocks, LNG exports, power demand
00:45:11 – Where to find research and closing remarks

Links

https://schachterenergyreport.ca

About the Guest

Subscription Discount for Palisade Listeners, $100 off the first year of our subscription, use coupon code “POD100”

https://schachterenergyreport.ca/subscriptions/

Josef Schachter is a 40+ year veteran of the Canadian Investment Management Industry, Josef Schachter has experienced several exceptional and turbulent global economic and stock market cycles. With his primary focus in the stock market and the energy sector, Josef is able to weave global political, economic and monetary issues with current energy data into a compelling story of what’s going on, what is to come, and why.

Josef is a frequent guest on Michael Campbell’s Podcast ‘Mikes Money Talks’ and other podcast and radio shows and is often quoted in the media. He is a regular Guest Speaker at the annual World Outlook Financial Conference in Vancouver and he delivers presentations to various companies and organizations. For several years, he was a frequent and notably colourful commentator on BNN Bloomberg’s Market Call.

Josef provided Oil and Gas research to Maison Placements Canada geared to their institutional clients for 15 years ending April 2017, and was acknowledged as the first analyst in Canada to predict the Oil Price Plunge of 2014.

Prior to establishing his firm Schachter Asset Management Inc. in 1996, Josef was the Chief Market Strategist at Richardson Greenshields, a Director of RGCL and a member of its Investment Policy Committee. He holds a Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a past Chairman of the Canadian Council of Financial Analysts.