Palisades Gold Radio

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Rory Johnston to the show. Rory Johnston is Commodity Market Research who specializes in oil and gas. This episode delves into the complex dynamics of the current oil market crisis stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, exploring the profound implications for global energy supply and geopolitical tensions. Johnston provides a detailed analysis of the current oil market situation, highlighting that approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz, with about 13 million barrels currently disrupted. Despite this massive supply shock, oil prices remain surprisingly low, which Johnston attributes to several factors, including market resilience, slow-moving commodity markets, and complex geopolitical negotiations.

The discussion reveals the potential devastating consequences of prolonged strait closure, particularly for developing countries. While advanced economies might absorb price increases, many regions in the global south could experience complete fuel shortages, causing significant economic and humanitarian challenges. Johnston predicts that if the situation continues, demand destruction will become inevitable, potentially forcing prices to astronomical levels.

Interestingly, the conversation also explores the nuanced motivations of key players like the United States, Iran, and Israel. Johnston suggests that Iran potentially benefits from prolonging the conflict, while the United States appears increasingly desperate to reach a resolution. He believes the crisis will likely conclude with Iran gaining some recognized control over the Strait of Hormuz. Johnston’s base case scenario anticipates the strait potentially reopening by mid-May, but warns that the market will require months to rebalance. The cumulative oil supply loss could reach over 1.2 billion barrels, fundamentally altering the global oil market’s dynamics. He emphasizes that what was previously an oversupplied market will likely transform into a tighter, potentially higher-priced environment.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:48 – Strait of Hormuz Basics

00:01:55 – Supply Rerouting Efforts

00:02:57 – Total Supply Losses

00:06:09 – Replacing Lost Production

00:08:46 – Demand Destruction Scenario

00:11:15 – Price Reaction Analysis

00:19:23 – Trump’s Market Interventions

00:23:43 – US Treasury Intervention?

00:25:24 – Regional Shortage Timelines

00:30:41 – Global South Impacts

00:32:20 – War Incentives Discussion

00:41:40 – Iran, Trump, & Israel

00:46:11 – Base Case Outlook

00:51:56 – Refinery Fire Concerns

00:55:54 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:

Substack: https://www.commoditycontext.com/

X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.

He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).

Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back legendary investor and speculator Rick Rule to the show. Rick discusses the current commodity landscape, with a particular focus on energy, geopolitical tensions, and investment opportunities. He provides insights into the oil market, highlighting significant supply challenges and potential disruptions. He notes that global underinvestment in sustaining capital, particularly in the energy sector, could lead to substantial price increases in the coming years. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has further complicated the energy market, with potential long-term implications for global supply chains.

Regarding commodities, Rule discusses opportunities in helium, fertilizers, and precious metals. He emphasizes the importance of long-term thinking in commodity investments, particularly in the agricultural sector, where demographic shifts will continue to drive demand. On gold, Rule presents a compelling case for holding the metal as a savings instrument, arguing that not holding gold is “irresponsible.” He views gold as a critical asset that maintains purchasing power and provides liquidity during economic uncertainties.

Rule provides nuanced perspectives on investment strategies, particularly in natural resource sectors. He highlights the potential in junior mining exploration, noting that while the sector as a whole destroys capital, the top 10% of companies can generate significant value. His approach emphasizes thorough research, patience, and a willingness to hold investments through volatile periods.

The discussion also touches on geopolitical risks and investment opportunities in less-explored markets. Rule suggests that Western investors often overestimate political risks in unfamiliar regions and underestimate risks in seemingly stable markets like the US and Canada. Throughout the conversation, Rule demonstrates his characteristic blend of macroeconomic insight, speculative wisdom, and pragmatic investment philosophy.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:01:00 – Oil Supply Disruptions

00:02:54 – War Impact on Prices

00:04:22 – If War Ends Scenario

00:05:18 – Long-term Underinvestment

00:06:20 – Historical Oil Parallels

00:08:20 – Oil Equities Valuation

00:09:54 – Producer Opportunities Overview

00:17:03 – Other Commodities Disrupted

00:22:58 – Fertilizers and Potash

00:28:50 – Gold’s Portfolio Role

00:33:00 – Gold & Emerg. Selling

00:35:20 – Silver and Miners

00:38:20 – Hated Places

00:40:49 – Precious Metals Miners

00:44:00 – Junior Explorers Value

00:47:10 – Developers

00:49:10 – Wrap Up & Conference

Guest Links:

X: https://x.com/@realrickrule

Website: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RuleInvestmentMedia

Classroom: https://ruleclassroom.com

Battle Bank: https://battlebank.com

Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.

Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Colonel Douglas Macgregor to the show. Douglas is a retired U.S. Army Colonel & Decorated Combat Veteran. In a comprehensive analysis, Macgregor provides a dire assessment of the current geopolitical and economic landscape, focusing on the potential escalation of conflict in the Middle East and its global implications. Macgregor warns of a severe global crisis emerging from ongoing tensions, particularly highlighting the devastating impact on the global energy and fertilizer markets. He explains that approximately 15-20 million barrels of oil have been removed from the market, and 35% of global fertilizer production has been disrupted. This disruption could lead to widespread food shortages, potential famines in the global south, and significant economic challenges for countries worldwide.

The discussion centers on the potential for a massive air and missile campaign against Iran, which Macgregor believes could be catastrophically counterproductive. He argues that Iran has substantially rebuilt its military capabilities, with an estimated 45-50,000 drones and 15-20,000 ballistic and cruise missiles, supported by improved air defense systems from China and Russia. Macgregor critically examines the motivations behind the potential conflict, suggesting it stems from Israeli demands and pressure from what he calls the “Zionist billionaire class.” He emphasizes the potential economic consequences, including a possible global recession or depression, disruptions in shipping, and severe energy shortages.

The conversation also delves into broader economic implications, including the potential death of the petrodollar, resource nationalism, and the importance of hard assets like gold and silver. Macgregor strongly advises investors to prepare for challenging times by investing in tangible assets and maintaining cash reserves. Ultimately, he calls for rational leadership to prevent a potential humanitarian disaster, warning that the current trajectory could lead to significant global instability and economic upheaval. Macgregor’s analysis presents a stark and sobering view of the current geopolitical and economic landscape.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:38 – Welcoming Colonel McGregor

00:01:02 – Iran War Ceasefire Analysis

00:01:53 – Global Energy Complex Crisis

00:02:36 – Fertilizer Shortage Famine Risk

00:04:35 – Diesel Supply Europe Challenges

00:07:09 – Petrodollar System Collapse

00:09:16 – Trump Israel Iran Demands

00:13:00 – Iranian Defense Blockade Issues

00:15:08 – Upcoming Air Missile Campaign

00:20:09 – Infrastructure Destruction Escalation

00:22:01 – Global Recession Depression Warnings

00:25:13 – Gold Silver Investment Urgency

00:27:49 – Oil Market Reality Discrepancy

00:34:53 – Resource Nationalism Sovereignty Path

00:45:26 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Website: https://douglasmacgregor.com

X: https://x.com/DougAMacgregor

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@douglasmacgregorTV

Articles: https://breakingdefense.com/author/doug-macgregor/

Substack: https://substack.com/@coloneldoug

Douglas Macgregor is a decorated combat veteran, an author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant.

Macgregor was commissioned in the Regular Army in 1976 after 1 year at VMI and 4 years at West Point. In 2004, Macgregor retired with the rank of Colonel. In 2020, the President appointed Macgregor to serve as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense, a post he held until President Trump left office. He holds an MA in comparative politics and a PhD in international relations from the University of Virginia.

Macgregor is widely known inside the U.S., Europe, Israel, Russia, China and Korea for both his leadership in the Battle of 73 Easting, the U.S. Army’s largest tank battle since World War II, and for his ground breaking books on military transformation: Breaking the Phalanx (Praeger, 1997) and Transformation under Fire (Praeger, 2003). Macgregor’s recommendations for change in Force Design and “integrated all arms-all effects” operations have profoundly influenced force development in Israel, Russia and China. In 2010, Macgregor traveled to Seoul, Korea to advise the ROK Ministry of Defense on force design. In 2019, Transformation under Fire was selected by Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi, Chief of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), as the intellectual basis for IDF transformation. His fifth book, Margin of Victory: Five Battles that Changed the Face of Modern War from Naval Institute Press is available in Chinese, as well as, English and will soon appear in Hebrew.

In 28 years of service Macgregor taught in the Department of Social Sciences at West Point, commanded the 1st Squadron, 4th Cavalry, and served as the Director of the Joint Operations Center at SHAPE during the 1999 Kosovo Air Campaign for which he was awarded the Defense Superior Service medal. In January 2002, at Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s insistence the USCENTCOM Commander listened to Colonel Macgregor’s concept for the offensive to seize Baghdad. The plan was largely adopted, but assumed no occupation of Iraq by U.S. Forces.

Macgregor has also testified as an expert witness before the Senate and House Armed Services Committees and appeared as a defense analyst on Fox News, CNN, BBC, Sky News and public radio. He is fluent in German.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Dr. Stephen Leeb to the show. Dr. Stephen is Author and Founder of Leeb Capital Management. In this wide-ranging discussion, Leeb provides a comprehensive analysis of the global economic landscape, focusing on commodities, geopolitics, and the potential role of gold in reshaping the international monetary system. Leeb argues that the world is at a critical juncture, with natural gas and gold emerging as key strategic assets. He highlights the United States’ unexpected advantage in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and suggests that cooperation, rather than conflict, is the path forward for global economic stability.

The conversation then delves into the declining status of the US dollar and the potential for a gold-backed monetary system, with China and Russia playing significant roles in this potential transition. Stephen emphasizes the critical shortage of fundamental commodities, particularly copper and silver, and the need for sustainable energy solutions. Leeb warns that a shortage of any major critical commodity could lead to severe economic consequences, underlining the importance of international cooperation in resource management.

A central theme of the conversation is the potential for gold to serve as a unifying monetary force. Leeb views gold as more than just a commodity, describing it almost as a spiritual bridge between beauty and materiality. He suggests that countries adopting a gold standard have historically performed exceptionally well, and that gold could be instrumental in creating a more cooperative global economic system.

Leeb is particularly critical of current geopolitical tensions, especially between the United States, China, and Russia. He advocates for a collaborative approach, arguing that cooperation is the key to addressing global challenges in resource scarcity, technological innovation, and economic development.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:50 – Iran War Economic Impact

00:01:22 – LNG US Strategic Advantage

00:03:41 – Petrodollar System Origins

00:04:45 – Natural Gas Byproducts Value

00:08:47 – End of Petrodollar Era

00:11:21 – Europe’s Economic Crossroads

00:13:41 – Global Cooperation Imperative

00:18:07 – Gold Monetary System Role

00:21:03 – Oil Price Discrepancies Explained

00:24:50 – Market Manipulation Concerns

00:25:52 – China’s Gold Wealth Strategy

00:50:11 – Commodity Supercycle Potential

00:52:04 – Sustainability and Resource Scarcity

00:64:81 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Website: https://tti.kartra.com/page/AboutTTI

Substack: https://drstephenleebphd.substack.com/

Website: https://www.stephenleeb.com/

X: https://x.com/DrStephenLeeb

Book Sample: https://read.amazon.com/sample/126044127X?clientId=share

Dr. Stephen Leeb is a recognized authority on the stock market, macroeconomic trends, and commodities, especially oil and precious metals. As Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management, Dr. Leeb combines his knowledge of macro-economic trends and current market conditions with detailed information about specific companies he follows to guide the Committee’s investment decisions.

Stephen Leeb is a financial author, wealth manager, and publisher of a family of investment newsletters. He has been a recurring guest on CNN, Fox News, NPR, Bloomberg, and many others through the years. Leeb was also said to be one of the country’s foremost financial experts, with Charlie Gasparino in 2016 recommending Leeb as a good candidate for Federal Reserve Chairman.

Leeb earned a B.S. in Economics from the Wharton School of Business. He also earned a Master’s in Mathematics and a Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Illinois. He authored research papers on psychology and statistics in the peer-reviewed journal Psychological Reports. Stephen Leeb is married and lives in New York City, New York.

Leeb has written nine books on macroeconomic trends, finance, and investment, including the New York Times Best Sellers. Stephen’s recent book Red Alert was awarded the 2012 Axiom Business Book Awards silver medal in the International Business/Globalization category.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes David Skarica to the show. David Skarica is Contrarian Investor and the Founder of Profit From Pessimism. In this wide-ranging discussion, Skarica offers insights into current market dynamics, focusing on gold, commodities, and investment strategies. Skarica views the current gold market as part of a long-term macro trend that began in 1999, with potentially another four to six years of growth ahead. He attributes this potential to global debt levels, which have reached unprecedented heights. Central bank buying and potential retail investor interest are additional factors supporting gold’s trajectory. While gold has already seen significant appreciation, Skarica believes we are only in the first or second stage of its bull market in terms of pricing.

Regarding mining stocks, Skarica is particularly interested in smaller miners near production or with strong cash flow potential. He sees opportunities in junior mining companies that can potentially increase their market capitalization significantly. His investment approach focuses on finding undervalued companies with asymmetric risk-reward profiles, preferring to make concentrated bets on a handful of carefully selected investments.

Stijn also explores energy markets, with Skarica noting potential opportunities in oil, natural gas, and even renewable energy sectors. He suggests that the ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased energy demands from technological developments like AI could support higher energy prices and create investment opportunities. Skarica’s investment philosophy emphasizes contrarian thinking, patience, and seeking value in overlooked or undervalued assets. He warns against over-concentration in any single investment and recommends diversification across sectors and careful position sizing.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:42 – Market Volatility Overview

00:01:49 – Precious Metals Bull Market

00:03:54 – Opportunities in Miners

00:07:48 – Gold as Ultimate Hedge

00:08:47 – Central Bank Buying

00:11:13 – Debasement and Debt

00:16:22 – Bull Cycle Analysis

00:20:29 – Gold Majors Valuation

00:24:14 – Junior Miners Strategy

00:33:54 – Oil Energy Outlook

00:43:13 – LNG Natural Gas Plays

00:50:42 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

X: https://x.com/DavidSkarica

Website: https://profitfrompessimism.com

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/@profitpess

David Skarica had an interest in financial markets at an early age. At the age of 16, he read the small booklet “The Plague of the Black Debt”, by James Dale Davidson, which was given to him by his uncle.

David was always a sports stat nut, loving football, hockey and baseball stats, which lead to David becoming intrigued with economics and markets. David is such an avid Football and Las Vegas Raiders fan — his principal in grammar school was Bernie Custis, who was the late Raiders owner Al Davis’ roommate at Syracuse University, and the first ever African American quarterback in college and pro football history — that he also runs his own football vlog, Raiders Greats, which discusses great Raiders player of the past. He also is a soccer fan who supports Leeds Utd., as his father was born in Leeds, England.

In 1996, at the age of 18, David became the youngest person on record (that he knows of anyhow) to obtain the Canadian Securities Course (CSC) license to trade investment securities.

In the late 1990s, David felt that the market was becoming another epic bubble similar to the bubble of the 1920s, so he decided at the tender age of 20 to write his first book, Stock Market Panic!, which was published in 1998. Over the next decade, gold soared from $250 an ounce to nearly $1900, while the S&P 500 lost value.

In the same year that this book was published, he decided to start his newsletter, Addicted to Profits. The newsletter’s name was a spin on Robert Palmer’s famed song Addicted to Love. The irony was Robert Palmer recorded this song in the Bahamas ay the famous Compass Point Recording Studio, and David himself would end up moving to the Bahamas in 2005 (another Irony about David moving to the Bahamas is that his mentor Sir John Templeton also resided there).