Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Subscribe to the Channel!0:52 190 Corn Yield?5:40 US Weather7:28 Big Brazil Corn Crop9:14 Farmer Sentiment11:35 Biofuel and Senate🌽 Corn Yield Chatter Heats Up! 🔥There's buzz in the trade about US corn yields. Some analysts suggest yields could be 2–5% above trend, placing the national average anywhere from 184.6 to 190.1 bpa. But others argue that such numbers are unlikely due to record acreage (95.2M planted) and reduced input use from farmers. I’m not picking a side—but the chatter is loud enough to mention. 👂💬🌦️ Weather Watch: Scattered Rains & Heat ☀️Over the next 5 days, only scattered rainfall is expected—mainly in Minnesota & Wisconsin.🌀 Euro vs. GFS disagreement: Euro model = wetter outlookGFS model = dry in the east🔥 Above-normal temps will persist, and the 8–14 day forecast suggests more heat (though ensemble data is cooler). 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update: StoneX Raises the Bar 📈StoneX now pegs Brazil’s corn crop at a record 136.1 MMT, up from 134 MMT, with the second crop at 108.2 MMT.🫘 Brazil soybean forecast also bumped up slightly to 168.8 MMT.🇺🇸 For reference, USDA’s Brazil corn estimate is still at 130 MMT—that’s a 240M bushel difference! USDA & CONAB update next week.📉 Farmer Sentiment Drops on Trade Worries 🧠The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer fell to 146 in June, down 12 points from May.🌍 Main concern? Ag exports.46% believe Trump’s tariffs will hurt income. 27% believe they’ll help. 🛢️ Biofuel Battle: Big Oil vs. Farmers ⚔️A fight is brewing over the 45Z tax credit.Farm groups want it limited to feedstocks from North America 🌎The oil industry opposes this, saying it would raise fuel prices ⛽👉 This policy would boost soybean oil demand and align with Trump’s “America First” agenda. 🇺🇸🔔 Don't forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Let's talk grain markets! 🌾🗣️
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13:43
Corn Ratings Shoot Higher + USDA Dud
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn Ratings Improve3:15 USDA Snoozefest8:39 US Weather10:19 Big Brazil Corn Crop11:44 Cattle and Mexico Border13:03 Grain Shipments14:22 Flash Sale🌽 Crop Conditions Improve! USDA Surprises & Brazil Corn Booms! 🌱👋 Welcome back! In this update, we’re diving into the latest crop condition ratings, trade surprises from the USDA, weather outlooks, and key developments out of Brazil and the southern US border. Let’s dig in! 🚜📊🌽 Corn Conditions ClimbNational corn rated 73% good-to-excellent 📈 — best since 2020!Trade expected 70%… surprise!Only 5% of the crop is poor/very poor 🚫🌱 Soybeans Steady66% good-to-excellent, unchanged and above the 5-year average📉 Futures PressureNew crop corn flirting with fresh lows this morning as ratings improve…📋 USDA June 30th Report: Mostly a SnoozerCorn acres: 95.2M vs. 95.3M est.Soybean acres: 83.4M vs. 83.5M est.Corn stocks in line ✅, soy and wheat stocks a touch high🌤️ Weather OutlookDry week ahead, especially for central and eastern Corn Belt 🔥Western Iowa and Minnesota get the best rain8–14 day forecast looks wetter 🌧️ (Euro model more optimistic than GFS)Heat stays for now, but relief may come next week 🌡️🇧🇷 Brazil Corn SurpriseAgRural bumps total output to 130.6 MMT 🚛Safrinha corn: record 103.4 MMTHarvest pace still behind last year (18% vs 49%) ⏳Big supply, but delays persist…🐄 Feeder Cattle Border ReopensUSDA starts gradual reopening for Mexican imports 🐮First port: Douglas, AZ—more to followScrewworm progress equals cautious optimismMarket already supported by lowest herd since 1950s 🔥🚢 Export InspectionsCorn: 1.4 MMT down 9% vs last week, but +65% YoYSoybeans: 224K MT, soft vs last yearWheat: 434K MT, strong print! 💪📦 Flash Sale!204,000 MT of soybean cake and meal sold to unknown destinations🧠 Tap into the trends and don’t miss a beat — subscribe for more updates!💬 What do YOU think the markets will do next? Drop your take in the comments below!#GrainMarkets #Corn #Soybeans #USDA #CropProgress #AgNews #BrazilCorn #Weather #Exports #FeederCattle #Farming
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15:49
Hot & Dry Corn Belt Forecast - Nobody Cares
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Intro0:40 Corn and Soybean Bounce2:00 Hot and Dry3:59 The Funds6:11 USDA Preview7:40 Brazil Harvest8:52 Record-High Stock Market11:24 Flash Sale🎥 Corn & Soybeans Bounce Back + USDA Reports & Brazil Harvest Update! 🌽📈🌎👋 Hey there, grain market watchers! In this video, we’re covering all the BIG moves from Friday’s trade, including a nice rebound in corn and soybean futures, updates from the USDA, and what’s happening with Brazil’s delayed safrinha corn harvest. Let’s dive in! 👇🌽 Grain Markets ReboundAfter tagging multi-month lows earlier this week, Dec25 corn climbed back 6¢ to $4.27/bu, while Nov25 soybeans added ~8¢ to settle near $10.25/bu.✅ Improved US–China trade sentiment📉 Weakening US dollar📊 Stock market rally☀️ Corn Belt Weather OutlookThe 7-day outlook calls for minimal rain across key US growing areas.📍 Illinois, southern Iowa, and Indiana especially dry🔥 Temps expected to run 2.9°F above normal (CropProphet)🌧️ Long-range models hint at more rain—but will it be enough?💰 Fund Positioning (CFTC)"The Funds" are still bearish:🔻 Sold 6k corn contracts last week📉 Total of 321k corn contracts sold since mid-April🌱 Net sellers of 27k soybeans🌾 Net buyers of 10k SRW wheat📊 USDA Reports Drop at 11am CSTPlanted Acreage & Quarterly Stocks on deck!🌽 Corn acreage expected slightly higher vs. March🌱 Soybean acreage likely to rise too📉 Corn stocks seen down ~7% YoY📈 Soy stocks up 1%—a 5-year high🌾 Wheat stocks could be up 20%!🇧🇷 Brazil’s Safrinha Corn DelayedHarvest is way behind:🕐 Just 19.5% harvested vs. 47% last year🌧️ Wet April/May = soggy fields, high moisture📦 Slower progress, but record crop of 103.2mmt still expected📈 Equity Markets Soar🚀 S&P 500 closes at an all-time high (6,173)📊 Nasdaq & Dow also post gains💬 Investors growing used to Trump’s trade strategy💵 Fed hints at possible rate cuts = bullish sentiment🫘 Soybean Flash Sale to Mexico!📦 119,746mt (4 mil bushels) sold📅 Delivery in 2024/25 marketing year📈 Soybean sales up 11% YoY so far!📢 Don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and drop a comment with your thoughts on the upcoming USDA reports!🌱 Stay smart. Stay informed. Stay hedged. 💼📉
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12:49
Tough Week: Are We There Yet?
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇦🇷 Argentina Rushes Exports Ahead of Tariff Expiry Crop traders in Argentina are rushing to secure export licenses before tariff relief ends on June 30. President Javier Milei’s temporary cuts—🎯 soybean meal/oil from 31% to 24.5% and 🌽 corn from 12% to 9.5%—sparked a surge in exports, making June the busiest month since he took office. The move aimed to support farmers and boost foreign reserves ahead of October’s midterms. 🚜💰 Ag groups are urging an extension. 🌧️ Rain Brings Drought Relief Across U.S. Corn Belt Last week’s rainfall helped ease drought conditions across major growing regions like Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota. 🙌 Just 6% of the Corn Belt remains in drought. Nebraska and the High Plains also saw some improvements. 📊 Drought by Crop: Corn: 16%Soybeans: 12%Winter Wheat: 20%Spring Wheat: 25%Cattle Areas: 18%📉 U.S. Export Sales DipCorn: 741,200mt (29M bu), ↓18% from last week; 🇨🇴 Colombia top buyer. Soybeans: 402,900mt (15M bu), ↓16% weekly but ↑83% vs. 4-week avg; 🇳🇱 Netherlands top buyer. Wheat: 255,200mt (9M bu), ↓40% from last week; 🇯🇵 Japan top buyer. 📅 Key USDA Report Coming Monday The USDA will release the Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks report Monday morning. Expectations:Slight increases in 🌽 corn and 🌱 soybean acreageCorn stocks: ↓7% YoYSoybean stocks: ↑1%, 5-year highWheat stocks: ↑20%, 4-year high 📉 Market action suggests traders expect a bearish report. 🇷🇺 Russia’s Banking Sector in Trouble? Analysts warn of a potential financial crisis by 2026. Rising bad debt, high interest rates, and borrowers falling behind on loans are fueling a credit crunch. 💸 Despite record bank profits in 2024, inflation and war-focused spending are straining the private sector. Trillions of rubles in bad loans may already be in the system. 🚢 Soybean Flash Sale & Egypt Corn OrderUSDA reported a 110,000mt corn sale to 🇪🇬 Egypt for 2024/25.Cumulative soybean sales are up 11% YoY for the current marketing year.☀️ Weekend Weather Outlook: Warm & Wet Rainfall is expected across the 🌽 Midwest through Sunday, with above-normal temps. Agronomists are confident: subsoil moisture is strong going into July, a critical month for corn growth. 🌾🌦️
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29:43
Markets Taken Behind the Woodshed
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇧🇷 Brazil Ups Biofuel Mandates Starting August 1, Brazil will increase ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15%. This move could make Brazil self-sufficient in gasoline for the first time in 15 years. Ethanol mainly comes from sugarcane 🌱, but corn-based ethanol 🌽 is growing fast. About 70% of Brazil's biodiesel is made from soybeans. 🌧️ Soaking Rains Ahead for Corn Belt Heavy rainfall is expected across the Corn Belt over the next 7 days, with precipitation forecast at 152% of normal. The Upper Midwest—especially eastern South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—will get the most rain. Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana will also see showers. Temperatures will be warmer in the Eastern Corn Belt and cooler west of I-29. Overall, temps will run about 0.8°F above normal. 💵 Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Fed Outlook Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers it's tough to predict how tariffs will impact inflation. Despite lower inflation and pressure from President Trump to cut rates, Powell urged caution, citing a strong economy and uncertain trade effects. Some Fed governors support a rate cut as early as July, but Powell warned inflation may rebound later this year. Meanwhile, Trump continues to criticize high interest rates for increasing government debt costs. 🛢️ Ethanol Output Slips, But Remains Strong US ethanol production dipped 2.5% last week to 1.1 million barrels/day but is still up 3.6% from a year ago. Ethanol stocks climbed to 24.4 million barrels—well above seasonal norms. That’s up 1.2% from last week and 4.2% from last year. Margins, however, softened slightly, according to Reuters. 📉 📉 Dollar Drops as Tensions Ease The US dollar weakened this week following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Falling oil prices also removed a key support for the dollar. With Middle East tensions calming, the greenback’s direction now depends more on domestic data and Fed policy. Markets are currently pricing in 60 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. The Dollar Index is down nearly 10% in 2025, hitting its lowest point since March 2022.
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