“Experts & markets think authoritarian capture of the US looks distinctly possible” by LintzA
The following is a quick collection of forecasting markets and opinions from experts which give some sense of how well-informed people are thinking about the state of US democracy. This isn't meant to be a rigorous proof that this is the case (DM me for that), just a collection which I hope will get people thinking about what's happening in the US now. Before looking at the forecasts you might first ask yourself: What probability would I put on authoritarian capture?, and At what probability of authoritarian capture would I think that more concern and effort is warranted? Forecasts[1] The US won’t be a democracy by 2030: 25% - Metaculus Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?: 48% - Manifold If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM): 61% [...] ---Outline:(00:45) Forecasts(01:50) Quotes from experts & commentators(03:20) Some relevant research---
First published:
October 8th, 2025
Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eJNH2CikC4scTsqYs/experts-and-markets-think-authoritarian-capture-of-the-us
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
--------
5:45
--------
5:45
“Your Sacrifice Portfolio Is Probably Terrible” by Midtermist12
or Maximizing Good Within Your Personal Constraints Note: The specific numbers and examples below are approximations meant to illustrate the framework. Your actual calculations will vary based on your situation, values, and cause area. The goal isn't precision—it's to start thinking explicitly about impact per unit of sacrifice rather than assuming certain actions are inherently virtuous. You're at an EA meetup. Two people are discussing their impact: Alice: "I went vegan, buy only secondhand, bike everywhere, and donate 5% of my nonprofit salary to animal charities." Bob: "I work in finance, eat whatever, and donate 40% of my income to animal charities." Who gets more social approval? Alice. Who prevents more animal suffering? Bob—by orders of magnitude. Alice's choices improve welfare for hundreds of animal-years annually through diet change and her $2,500 donation. Bob's $80,000 donation improves tens of thousands of animal-years through corporate campaigns. Yet Alice is [...] ---Outline:(00:11) or Maximizing Good Within Your Personal Constraints(01:31) The Personal Constraint Framework(02:26) Return on Sacrifice (RoS): The Core Metric(03:05) Case Studies: Where Good Intentions Go Wrong(03:10) Career: The Counterfactual Question(04:32) Environmental Action: Personal vs. Systemic(05:13) Information and Influence(05:45) Truth vs. Reach(06:17) The Uncomfortable Truth About Offsets(07:43) When Personal Practice Actually Matters(08:22) Your Personal Impact Portfolio(09:38) The Reallocation Exercise(10:40) Addressing the Predictable Objections(11:41) The Call to Action(12:10) The Bottom Line---
First published:
September 10th, 2025
Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/u9WzAcyZkBhgWAew5/your-sacrifice-portfolio-is-probably-terrible
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
--------
13:40
--------
13:40
“Effective altruism in the age of AGI” by William_MacAskill
This post is based on a memo I wrote for this year's Meta Coordination Forum. See also Arden Koehler's recent post, which hits a lot of similar notes. Summary The EA movement stands at a crossroads. In light of AI's very rapid progress, and the rise of the AI safety movement, some people view EA as a legacy movement set to fade away; others think we should refocus much more on “classic” cause areas like global health and animal welfare. I argue for a third way: EA should embrace the mission of making the transition to a post-AGI society go well, significantly expanding our cause area focus beyond traditional AI safety. This means working on neglected areas like AI welfare, AI character, AI persuasion and epistemic disruption, human power concentration, space governance, and more (while continuing work on global health, animal welfare, AI safety, and biorisk). These additional [...] ---Outline:(00:20) Summary(02:38) Three possible futures for the EA movement(07:07) Reason #1: Neglected cause areas(10:49) Reason #2: EA is currently intellectually adrift(13:08) Reason #3: The benefits of EA mindset for AI safety and biorisk(14:53) This isn't particularly Will-idiosyncratic(15:57) Some related issues(16:10) Principles-first EA(17:30) Cultivating vs growing EA(21:27) PR mentality(24:48) What I'm not saying(28:31) What to do?(29:00) Local groups(31:26) Online(35:18) Conferences(36:05) Conclusion---
First published:
October 10th, 2025
Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/R8AAG4QBZi5puvogR/effective-altruism-in-the-age-of-agi
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
--------
37:35
--------
37:35
“Taking ethics seriously, and enjoying the process” by kuhanj
Here's a talk I gave at an EA university group organizers’ retreat recently, which I've been strongly encouraged to share on the forum. I'd like to make it clear I don't recommend or endorse everything discussed in this talk (one example in particular which hopefully will be self-evident), but do think serious shifts in how we engage with ethics and EA would be quite beneficial for the world. Part 1: Taking ethics seriously To set context for this talk, I want to go through an Our World in Data style birds-eye view of how things are trending across key issues often discussed in EA. This is to help get better intuitions for questions like “How well will the future go by default?” and “Is the world on track to eventually solve the most pressing problems?” - which can inform high-level strategy questions like “Should we generally be doing more [...] ---Outline:(00:32) Part 1: Taking ethics seriously(04:26) Incentive shifts and moral progress(05:07) What is incentivized by society?(07:08) Heroic Responsibility(11:30) Excerpts from Strangers drowning(14:37) Opening our eyes to what is unbearable(18:07) Increasing effectiveness vs. increasing altruism(20:20) Cognitive dissonance(21:27) Paragons of moral courage(23:15) The monk who set himself on fire to protect Buddhism, and didn't flinch an inch(27:46) What do I most deeply want to honour in this life?(29:43) Moral Courage and defending EA(31:55) Acknowledging opportunity cost and grappling with guilt(33:33) Part 2: Enjoying the process(33:38) Celebrating what's really beautiful - what our hearts care about(42:08) Enjoying effective altruism(44:43) Training our minds to cultivate the qualities we endorse(46:54) Meditation isnt a silver bullet(52:35) The timeless words of MLK---
First published:
October 4th, 2025
Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gWyvAQztk75xQvRxD/taking-ethics-seriously-and-enjoying-the-process
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
--------
54:08
--------
54:08
“Charity Entrepreneurship is bottlenecked by a lack of great animal founders” by Ben Williamson, Amalie Farestvedt 🔸
TL;DR - AIM's applicants skew towards global health & development. We’ve recommended four new animal welfare charities, have the capacity to launch all four, but expect to struggle to find the talent to do so. If you’ve considered moving into animal welfare work, applying to Charity Entrepreneurship to launch a new charity in the space could be of huge counterfactual value. Part 1: Why you should launch an animal welfare charity Our existing animal charities have had a lot of impact—improving the lives of over 1 billion animals worldwide. - from Shrimp Welfare Project securing corporate commitments globally and featuring on the Daily Show, to FarmKind's recent success coordinating a $2 million dollar fundraiser for the animal movement on the Dwarkshesh podcast, not to mention the progress of the 40 person army at the Fish Welfare Initiative, Scale Welfare's direct hand-on work at fish farms, and Animal Policy [...] ---Outline:(00:37) Part 1: Why you should launch an animal welfare charity(02:07) A few notes on counterfactual founder value(05:57) Part 2 - The Charity Entrepreneurship Program & Our Latest Animal Welfare Ideas(06:04) What is the Charity Entrepreneurship Incubation Program?(06:47) Our recommended animal welfare ideas for 2026(07:10) 1. Driving supermarket commitments to shift diets away from meat(07:58) 2. Securing scale-up funding for the alternative protein industry(08:51) 3. Cage-free farming in the Middle East(09:30) 4. Preventing painful injuries in laying hens(10:02) Applications close on October 5th: Apply here.---
First published:
September 29th, 2025
Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aeky2EWd32bjjPJqf/charity-entrepreneurship-is-bottlenecked-by-a-lack-of-great
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Audio narrations from the Effective Altruism Forum, including curated posts and posts with 125 karma.
If you'd like more episodes, subscribe to the "EA Forum (All audio)" podcast instead.