The shift in the way the US trades with the world is fundamentally leading to higher inflationary pressures, and in turn causing a weakening US dollar. This has significant implications for investors, and is a risk to the concept of US exceptionalism. In such an environment, we see value in diversifying away from the US in sectors that can be easily replaced. The US, however, remains a leader in the technology sector. In the fixed income space, elevated rates are likely here to stay, which means going for long duration is possibly not ideal. This episode, presented by Bhaskar Laxminarayan, Chief Investment Officer Asia at Julius Baer, explores these themes and provides insights for investors navigating this complex landscape.
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5:48
China Conversations: Tailwinds in Chinese equities
The potential for increased policy support, and ongoing improvements in corporate governance, are factors that support a constructive outlook for Chinese equities. Additionally, the ongoing shift in global investor portfolios away from the US adds further momentum to this outlook. In this episode, our experts explore the investment themes that offer significant opportunities. They also discuss the possible policy directions that China can take in the short and longer terms, the state of the Chinese property market, and if markets are being complacent given the overhang of tariff risks. Kevin You, Portfolio Manager at Allianz Global Investors, joins Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer in this coversation.(00:45) - Constructive on China equities
(05:50) - Back to pre-Liberation Day levels – are markets being complacent?
(09:51) - Potential policy direction
(13:24) - State of the Chinese property market
(16:20) - Reforms to the pre-sale home model?
(17:58) - Thoughts on allocations in Chinese equities
(19:18) - Investing in the AI theme in China
(20:34) - Self-sufficiency in Chinese technology and semiconductors
(22:39) - Robotics sector – where’s the potential?
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26:08
What we learnt from an unusual Q1 earnings season
A large shadow was cast over the Q1 2025 earnings season by President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff bombshells and his administration’s subsequent trade discussions. Investors and traders alike waited with bated breath to see quite what the impact would be on both earnings guidance and companies’ capex plans.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research at Julius Baer, talks to Bernadette Anderko about his key takeaways from the earnings releases on both sides of the Atlantic. They discuss which sectors fared better than others, the impact of the tariffs, how to navigate the current market conditions, and much more.00:32 Introduction01:02 US Q1 earnings releases 01:58 Europe’s earnings season02:48 Share price reactions03:32 What happened to guidance?04:42 Tariff impact on capex05:26 What about hyperscalers?06:31 Sell in May …08:17 Navigating recession risk09:34 Summary and conclusionWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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12:09
The Week in Markets: US pessimism prevails
US assets slumped last week, with the US dollar, Treasuries, and stocks selling off following President Trump's warning of fresh tariffs on the European Union. The pessimism on US assets is also reflected in recent data. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.8 from 52.2 in the month, and surveys show that Americans intend to do fewer road trips this summer despite falling gasoline prices.Investors are now seeing merit on diversifying out of the US, and gains have been seen in local currency stocks and bond markets. Local currencies have also performed well, with the weaker greenback creating opportunities for Asian central banks, such as Bank Indonesia and the Reserve Bank of Australia, to cut rates. In Hong Kong, the slump in the US dollar pushed the Hong Kong dollar towards the strong end of the band, prompting intervention from the Hong Monetary Authority (HKMA) to defend the currency peg. We expect more abrupt interventions from the HKMA from here, as investor positioning and flows are likely to weigh on the Hong Kong dollar and HIBOR.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.
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5:54
The Week in Markets: The beginning of the end of US exceptionalism?
In this episode of the Week in Markets, equities research analyst Louis Chua explores how the equity and debt markets have reacted to the 90-day truce in the trade war between the US and China, and what are some of the lingering concerns to watch over the next 90 days. Overall, while the financial markets have reacted with relief, we believe that the US fiscal situation remains far from being solved, and we would take advantage of the current opportunity to add diversifying exposure outside the US. In the long term, an end to US exceptionalism and foreign investors’ asset allocation decisions to diversify away from the US can have a significant impact to equity and fixed income markets.
“Beyond Markets” by Julius Baer is a series featuring conversations with experts to share recent market developments, key insights, and strategic inputs from around the globe. In each episode, we cut through the noise to offer practical advice and macro research on today’s shifting economic and market landscape.
The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.
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