The Week in Markets: Hawkish Fed commentary diminish December rate cut hopes
Following hawkish commentary from six Federal Reserve presidents and promising indicators of October labour and consumer data, the market no longer expects a December rate cut. Meanwhile, recent technology stock performance suggests the market increasingly distinguishes between sustainable and speculative growth, and leverage. Over in Asia, China's stock market is supported by the country’s leadership in electrification, more exports of high-technology products and services, a slowly appreciating Renminbi, and governmental efforts to promote equity investment and corporate governance reforms. This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.
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Is the gold narrative shifting?
Gold has been on a wild ride lately — surging past USD 4,000 an ounce before tumbling in one of its biggest corrections in years. What’s really driving this volatility, and how are the narratives around gold evolving?Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, discuss the changing forces behind gold’s rally — from questions over the Fed’s independence and fears of dollar debasement to the role of central bank buying and China’s strategic accumulation. The conversation also touches on the outlook and trends for silver and the broader precious metals market.This episode was recorded on Nov 10, 2025.(00:22) - Narratives driving the gold market
(02:25) - Dollar resilience or temporary pause?
(03:55) - Mixed signals from the Fed
(05:35) - Do geopolitics really matter for gold?
(06:49) - Central bank buying and structural trends
(09:55) - China’s gold strategy
(12:55) - ETF flows: Conviction or speculation?
(15:25) - Chinese regulatory changes, and impact on precious metals landscape
(17:27) - Section 232 and silver
(20:45) - Is the mythical $50 level in silver still in play?
(21:25) - Outlook and key takeaways
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The Week in Markets: Tangible evidence of AI’s role in workforce reductions
The University of Michigan’s November consumer sentiment survey, and October private sector job cuts tracked by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, have raised concerns the US economy may be entering a recession. But data from ADP, state-level initial jobless claims, and the Chicago Fed’s unemployment estimate, all paint a picture of a healthy economy. A closer look at the Challenger data, however, suggests the reason for job cuts is Artificial Intelligence. While AI might be able to displace humans in technology companies, it is unlikely to replace workers in many other sectors anytime soon. Still, it is clear labour is a primary worry in the market.
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China Conversations: The post-plenum roadmap
The recent conclusion of China’s Fourth Plenum has shed light on the strategic direction of the 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting key priorities such as boosting domestic consumption, advancing technological self-reliance, and expanding into new export markets. Following the Plenum, Chinese President Xi also met with US President Trump in South Korea, reaching a mutual agreement to pause key trade escalations for a year. What do these developments mean for the future of US-China relations, and can Chinese markets continue its bull run in 2026? This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd.
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The Week in Markets: Strong Earnings, Cautious Markets
Q3 US corporate earnings continue to report strong, with S&P 500 profits on track for 12% year-on-year growth and widespread beats on sales and margins. However, despite robust fundamentals, stocks reacting to positive reports have underperformed historically, weighed down by already-bullish investor positioning. An inverted put-call skew in the “Magnificent 7” suggests elevated optimism, often followed by short-term pullbacks. Meanwhile, fears of AI-fuelled overinvestment in tech appear overstated: while capital expenditure is rising, it remains modest as a share of revenue, free cash flow, and GDP. Looking at China, policy direction after the Fourth Plenum supports continued advancement in AI, semiconductors, and robotics, while the recent Xi-Trump meeting offers temporary relief on trade tensions. Though near-term consolidation is possible, structural drivers keep China tech and equities attractive for diversified portfolios.
“Beyond Markets” by Julius Baer is a series featuring conversations with experts to share recent market developments, key insights, and strategic inputs from around the globe. In each episode, we cut through the noise to offer practical advice and macro research on today’s shifting economic and market landscape.
The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.
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