Gold has been on a wild ride lately — surging past USD 4,000 an ounce before tumbling in one of its biggest corrections in years. What’s really driving this volatility, and how are the narratives around gold evolving?Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, discuss the changing forces behind gold’s rally — from questions over the Fed’s independence and fears of dollar debasement to the role of central bank buying and China’s strategic accumulation. The conversation also touches on the outlook and trends for silver and the broader precious metals market.This episode was recorded on Nov 10, 2025.(00:22) - Narratives driving the gold market
(02:25) - Dollar resilience or temporary pause?
(03:55) - Mixed signals from the Fed
(05:35) - Do geopolitics really matter for gold?
(06:49) - Central bank buying and structural trends
(09:55) - China’s gold strategy
(12:55) - ETF flows: Conviction or speculation?
(15:25) - Chinese regulatory changes, and impact on precious metals landscape
(17:27) - Section 232 and silver
(20:45) - Is the mythical $50 level in silver still in play?
(21:25) - Outlook and key takeaways
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25:51
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25:51
The Week in Markets: Tangible evidence of AI’s role in workforce reductions
The University of Michigan’s November consumer sentiment survey, and October private sector job cuts tracked by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, have raised concerns the US economy may be entering a recession. But data from ADP, state-level initial jobless claims, and the Chicago Fed’s unemployment estimate, all paint a picture of a healthy economy. A closer look at the Challenger data, however, suggests the reason for job cuts is Artificial Intelligence. While AI might be able to displace humans in technology companies, it is unlikely to replace workers in many other sectors anytime soon. Still, it is clear labour is a primary worry in the market.
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12:21
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12:21
China Conversations: The post-plenum roadmap
The recent conclusion of China’s Fourth Plenum has shed light on the strategic direction of the 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting key priorities such as boosting domestic consumption, advancing technological self-reliance, and expanding into new export markets. Following the Plenum, Chinese President Xi also met with US President Trump in South Korea, reaching a mutual agreement to pause key trade escalations for a year. What do these developments mean for the future of US-China relations, and can Chinese markets continue its bull run in 2026? This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd.
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25:38
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25:38
The Week in Markets: Strong Earnings, Cautious Markets
Q3 US corporate earnings continue to report strong, with S&P 500 profits on track for 12% year-on-year growth and widespread beats on sales and margins. However, despite robust fundamentals, stocks reacting to positive reports have underperformed historically, weighed down by already-bullish investor positioning. An inverted put-call skew in the “Magnificent 7” suggests elevated optimism, often followed by short-term pullbacks. Meanwhile, fears of AI-fuelled overinvestment in tech appear overstated: while capital expenditure is rising, it remains modest as a share of revenue, free cash flow, and GDP. Looking at China, policy direction after the Fourth Plenum supports continued advancement in AI, semiconductors, and robotics, while the recent Xi-Trump meeting offers temporary relief on trade tensions. Though near-term consolidation is possible, structural drivers keep China tech and equities attractive for diversified portfolios.
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8:24
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8:24
The challenge of reducing USD exposure without sacrificing yield
October was a busy month for those involved in FX transactions and the vagaries of the precious metals markets. With the US Federal Reserve having started to lower rates and continuing expectations of a weakening dollar, how are investors positioning themselves as they head towards year end? In this episode of the Beyond Markets Podcast, Bernadette Anderko sits down with Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Sales at Julius Baer Geneva to discuss the challenges involved in reducing dollar exposure, what alternatives look interesting and of course, the explosive performance of gold in 2025 and how volatility is providing investors with interesting opportunities.(00:11) - Introduction
(01:22) - Adjusting to further dollar weakness
(02:31) - Is anyone actually selling the dollar?
(03:27) - USD alternatives being investigated
(04:30) - Emerging market currencies
(05:56) - The situation in silver and gold
(07:38) - What’s the key takeaway?
(08:20) - Closing remarks
For a general overview of how currency markets work, refer to our previous episode from July 2022 with Tim, titled ‘Currency matters’: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/currency-matters/id1552236298?i=1000568939307Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
“Beyond Markets” by Julius Baer is a series featuring conversations with experts to share recent market developments, key insights, and strategic inputs from around the globe. In each episode, we cut through the noise to offer practical advice and macro research on today’s shifting economic and market landscape.
The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.
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