Understanding Trump’s tariffs: what it all means for investors
US President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements sent shockwaves through financial markets and 2 April 2025 will certainly be remembered as a hugely significant day. But what are the implications for investors in the wake of all the tariff-related uncertainty? In this episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about navigating the world of investing post-Liberation day. They discuss the risk of a recession, the role of US and non-US assets in portfolios, the outlook for safe-haven assets including the US dollar, and much more.00:31 Introduction01:07 Has the risk of a US and global recession increased?03:24 What is the expected timeline now?05:20 Is it possible to say what Trump’s plan is?06:41 The US Federal Reserve’s dilemma08:14 Impact on capital flows to the US09:49 Adjusting exposure to US and non-US assets10:58 Where do US technology stocks go from here?12:36 The outlook for the US dollar now15:21 The reaction of the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen16:23 Historic moves in bond markets18:46 What to focus on now in the fixed income space20:19 Thoughts on gold in the current environment22:16 What does the situation mean for Swiss equities?23:38 The role of Chinese equities in a portfolio26:44 The significance of talks between the EU and China27:49 Exposure to India to increase portfolio diversification29:02 The relevance of the Q1 earnings season30:29 Oil prices under pressure31:48 Our expectations for the rest of the year33:31 OutroWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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35:24
The Week in Markets: Treasury market gets the White House’s attention
Recent spikes in Treasury yields, public criticism from Republican mega-donors on the tariff policy, and calls by Wall Street CEOs to the White House and the Treasury Secretary, seem to have caught the White House’s attention. Reciprocal tariffs on all countries (excluding China), and tariffs on many electronics goods have been paused. Investors are taking some comfort in the White House’s attentiveness to the Treasury market. But until the tariff issues are resolved, significant uncertainty will continue to weigh on the market.
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15:05
Gold: Separating the signals from the noise
As global markets reel from the fallout of the "Liberation Day" tariff announcements, gold is once again thrust into the spotlight. Despite a recent pullback amidst the market turmoil, the yellow metal has risen by around 20% overall in the past six months and continues to chart new highs.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, examine the rising demand of gold as a safe haven asset, continued central bank buying flows, and the factors behind the recent volatility.
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12:55
Water: Too little and too much
In this episode of Beyond Markets we take a closer look at water. With water scarcity and extreme weather events on the increase, what do listeners need to know about water-related challenges and opportunities from both a societal and investment perspective? We are joined by Carsten Menke and Maeve Timoney from Julius Baer’s Next Generation Research team to answer these questions and much more. Hosted by Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership at Julius Baer.
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18:08
The Week in Markets: China calls the US’ bluff
Like in the Star Wars movie “The Phantom Menace”, the taxation of trade routes is leading to turmoil, including market turmoil. Bond and oil prices suggest the economy is about to abruptly slow down, following US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements. The hope is the rest of the world will quickly come and negotiate with Trump, and some are. But the largest bilateral trade relationship is between China and the United States. China has called his bluff, raising its tariff on US imports to 52%.Comparisons of indicators such as volatility ratios, deviations from averages and investor sentiment between today and previous flash crashes, all indicate high chances of the S&P 500 index being higher a year from now. But fundamentally, there’s no way to know what things will look like a year from now. We expect US valuations to compress and valuations to expand, as foreign savings fund domestic growth in Europe and China.
“Beyond Markets” by Julius Baer is a series featuring conversations with experts to share recent market developments, key insights, and strategic inputs from around the globe. In each episode, we cut through the noise to offer practical advice and macro research on today’s shifting economic and market landscape.
The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.
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