The Talking Sense Podcast

UCT's Council is deciding whether to remove advocate Mark Oppenheimer over a podcast he recorded with Ayaan Hirsi Ali. Mark explains the Navsa report, the R200 million the Donald Gordon Foundation withdrew over the university's Israel boycott, and why 300 Jewish students chose Stellenbosch over UCT this year.
Frans Cronje reads the medium-term budget, released an hour before recording. Debt is revised down to 78.4% of GDP and the deficit to 3.9%. But spending rises to 33.4% of GDP and revenue to 29.5%. "It looks good. It's very bad."
Simon Lincoln Reader explains the riots in France and Jean-Luc Mélenchon's part in them. Richard Tren is angry about Trump allowing Russian diesel imports, and explains why median household incomes in America are rising while young people's real wages are flat. Mark on Supra Mahumapelo's threat to strip his citizenship and why Parliament backed down. Frans closes on new polling: 80% of South Africans back AfriForum and March and March working together.
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Read the articles discussed:
US Ambassador Says South Africa Can Be as Successful as America
UCT Should Reject the Punishment of Dissent
Why South Africans Loathe News24 and What to Do About It
The Madness of King Zack (and his Greens)
Dispatch from Washington (Russian diesel)
Expect a Very Good Mini-Budget Next Week
Free Speech Union Demands Mahumapelo Drop Citizenship Threat
South Africans Back Cooperation Between AfriForum and March and March
Voters Want ANC and DA to Work Together in Municipalities
On the panel: host Gabriel Makin, Frans Cronje, Mark Oppenheimer, Simon Lincoln Reader and Richard Tren.
Chapters:
0:00 Pre-show: Harlan Crow, Clarence Thomas and the Harvard case
8:03 Mark on the Johannesburg Bar's race quotas
9:29 Welcome to Talking Sense: this week's panel
11:09 Mark Oppenheimer on the UCT Council and the move to remove him
17:56 Is UCT leading the woke takeover of universities?
21:13 What the Israel boycott has cost UCT
25:02 Why Wits and Stellenbosch kept their sanity
28:07 Simon on Ayaan Hirsi Ali
31:47 France on fire: debt, the education budget and Mélenchon
39:48 What the riots mean for Europe
42:37 Would Marine Le Pen fix France?
49:36 Trump allows Russian diesel imports
55:47 Frans: should Ukraine settle on territory?
1:03:14 US incomes are rising, young Americans' wages are flat
1:08:39 The mini-budget: 'It looks good. It's very bad.'
1:12:44 Mark: South Africa needs Milei-style reforms
1:18:23 Lamola, Mahumapelo and the threat to Mark's citizenship
1:25:51 Why deny the expropriation policy exists?
1:31:30 Frans's plan for black and white farming partnerships
1:34:20 Has the ANC stripped anyone's citizenship before?
1:36:59 South Africa's greatest strength: AfriForum and March and March
1:41:02 Wrap-up

Ryan Coetzee answered Marco Rubio's speech at the Acropolis by calling the tradition Rubio defended "the wrong one" that must be defeated. Simon Lincoln Reader takes him apart, and Frans Cronje argues the DA now has to let Coetzee go if it wants to repair South Africa's relationship with the United States. Bheki Mahlobo then makes the case that Jacob Zuma's death would not see the MK Party wither, because of how seriously most South Africans treat death and because Duduzane Zuma is a capable successor.
Become a member of The Common Sense for R99 a month and get all the facts and analysis: thecommonsense.co.za/subscribe
Read the articles discussed:
The Impossible Economics of Domestic Work
Lamola's Ill-Considered Jaunt to the US
Why a $100 Oil Price is Manageable for the Global Economy
The Global Economy Keeps Defying the Wars, Tariffs, and Pessimists
South Africa Less Politically Polarised Than Most Other Countries
Taking the MKP Seriously
The Amazing Story of the Fall and Rise of South Africa's Government Debt Level
The Common Sense's Diary
On the panel: host Gabriel Makin, Frans Cronje, Bheki Mahlobo, Simon Lincoln Reader and Richard Tren.
Chapters:
0:00 Pre-show: Cape Town, a fighter jet and the new White House press secretary
3:45 Frans's friend who bought an oil rig, and Simon on Dallas's boom
11:27 Welcome to Talking Sense: this week's panel
13:02 Who is Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma, and why are the elites blaming her?
18:25 Simon on News24's 'huge story' about her husband's tenders
20:26 Marco Rubio's speech at the Acropolis: why it mattered
25:39 Richard Tren and Frans: Rubio, Vance and the Republican centre ground
28:57 Bheki Mahlobo on Rubio, risk-taking and why the West demonises winners
30:25 Was Rubio's speech a warning to Europe?
32:22 Ryan Coetzee calls Rubio's tradition 'the wrong one': Simon replies
36:43 Frans Cronje: Coetzee's remarks are 'fatally bad' for the DA and America
42:05 Kimberly Guilfoyle, 'Fancy James' and the end of an ambassadorship
49:13 Ilhan Omar: the federal raid and the immigration questions
56:00 Diplomats behaving badly: the US ambassador to Nepal
59:45 Is Trump baiting the Democrats into defending Ilhan Omar?
1:01:26 The IMF's global outlook: why the bullish call held up
1:07:17 Where South Africa fits: growth cut to 1% and investment below 15%
1:10:06 V-Dem study: South Africa is less polarised than most democracies
1:16:16 Death: would Jacob Zuma's passing sink the MK Party?
1:21:03 How death is honoured in Black South African culture, and the Buthelezi poll
1:25:25 Western elites, Charlie Kirk and celebrating a political opponent's death
1:30:42 Taxes: why Frans expects the mini-budget to surprise the markets
1:35:52 The Laffer curve in practice: Thomas Sowell on 1920s America
1:37:29 Could a strong mini-budget set up a credit upgrade?
1:42:07 Bheki's forecasting record and Schlemmer's block of marble
1:43:44 Wrap-up

New News24/SABI polling puts the DA at about 40% in Johannesburg. Frans Cronje makes the case that the DA should refuse to govern the city on those numbers, win Gauteng in 2029 and fix it from a position of strength. James Myburgh asks whether this is the moment to seize.
Also this week: why the diesel price is at a record high while oil sits at $100, Simon Lincoln Reader on Margaret Thatcher and whether Andy Burnham ends Thatcher capitalism, Richard Tren on the US Supreme Court's new term, Frans on the classical liberals and the Black Consciousness Movement, and James Myburgh on Fikile Mbalula's misleading defence of the Expropriation Act. Plus three years on from October 7.
Become a member of The Common Sense for R99 a month and get all the facts and analysis: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/subscribe
Read the articles discussed:
How Do News24/SABI Polls Compare to The Common Sense/SRF Polls?: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/how-do-news24-sabi-polls-compare-to-the-common-sense-srf-polls
New Poll Shows DA on Track to be Biggest in Gauteng but Jo'burg: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/new-poll-shows-da-track-be-biggest-gauteng-jo-burg
This is Why the Diesel Price is So High: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/economics_and_policy/why-diesel-price-so-high
ANC Lies to the US About Expropriation Without Compensation: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/editorials/anc-lies-us-about-expropriation-without-compensation
Three Years After October 7, We Will Not Apologise for Standing: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/editorials/three-years-after-october-7-we-will-not-apologise-standing
October 7 Three Years On: A Pearl Harbour Moment in the Middle East: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/editorials/october-7th-three-years-pearl-harbour-moment-middle-east
Mbuyiseni Ndlozi: South Africans Must Stop Waiting For The State to Save Them: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/listen/conversations-with-gabriel/mbuyiseni-ndlozi-south-africans-must-stop-waiting-for-the-state-to-save-them
Princy Mthombeni Wants to Rewrite the South African Constitution: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/listen/conversations-with-gabriel/princy-mthombeni-wants-to-rewrite-the-south-african-constitution
On the panel: host Gabriel Makin, Frans Cronje, James Myburgh, Simon Lincoln Reader and Richard Tren.
Chapters:
0:00 A Pierneef-inspired AI painting, October 7 and the Green Party
3:51 George Galloway in Cape Town and the Greens' 'Zionism is racism' motion
8:33 Welcome to Talking Sense: why diesel is at a record price
15:11 The new News24/SABI poll and how it compares with ours
18:58 Should Helen Zille govern Johannesburg on 40%?
22:03 Coalition options, ActionSA and the ANC's sabotage strategy
26:15 James Myburgh: is this the moment for the DA to seize?
32:08 Can the DA fix Johannesburg without a real majority?
35:19 Lessons from the DA's last time in Johannesburg
39:57 Has the GNU helped the DA? Black voters and the Zille gap
44:19 Simon Lincoln Reader: what Thatcher capitalism was
48:52 How Thatcher remade Britain: the City, finance and common sense
51:56 Is Andy Burnham the final nail in Thatcher capitalism's coffin?
56:19 Richard Tren: Thatcher, Reagan and the moral case for freedom
1:03:06 Richard Tren: what to watch in the US Supreme Court's new term
1:10:43 Is this a Trump court? Roberts, compromise and free speech
1:12:29 Frans Cronje: the liberals and the Black Consciousness Movement
1:19:23 A third way? Ndlozi, Princy Mthombeni and the two nationalisms
1:23:49 Fikile Mbalula's misleading defence of the Expropriation Act
1:27:23 Who is the ANC's weasel language meant to persuade?
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Thabo Mbeki's 120-page thesis says a counter-revolution planted inside the ANC brought the party down. Frans Cronje explains why its own policies did it, and why growing at 5% a year since 2008 would have lifted more than 10 million South Africans out of poverty.
Also this week: James Myburgh on his National Press Club speech on the history of farm attacks and why the violence was normalised, how the foot-and-mouth crisis was fixed once farmers could buy their own vaccines, Ronald Lamola questioning debt repayments within earshot of Wall Street, Andy Burnham and the UK's bond market problem, and Richard Tren on how US student loans drove up university fees.
Become a member of The Common Sense for R99 a month and get all the facts and analysis: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/subscribe
Watch or listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3BPffxR8ZZLUByFmsRCz7B
Read the articles discussed:
Mbeki Says the ANC was Brought Down by an Orchestrated Counter-Revolution: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/mbeki-says-anc-was-brought-down-orchestrated-counter
Ask Not for Whom the Revolution Bays, It Bays for You: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Editorials/ask-not-whom-revolution-bays-bays-you
If SA Had Grown at Emerging-Market Rates, More Than 10 Million People Would Have Been Lifted Out of Poverty: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/economics_and_policy/if-sa-had-grown-emerging-market-rates-more-than-10-million
Rethinking Empowerment Policy for South Africa's Future: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/editorials/rethinking-empowerment-policy-for-south-africas-future
Expert Explains Origins, History, and Consequences of South Africa's Farm Attack Crisis to America: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/expert-explains-origins-history-consequences-south-africa-s
Just How Dangerous Is a South African Farm? We Ran the Numbers: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/just-how-dangerous-south-african-farm-we-ran-numbers
Special Report: South Africa's Predatory Crime Problem: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/special-report-south-africas-predatory-crime-problem
Blow for Steenhuisen as Free State Agriculture Wins for Farmers: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/blow-steenhuisen-as-free-state-agriculture-wins-farmers
Simon Lincoln-Reader, Lamola's Ill-Considered Jaunt to the US: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/editorials/lamola-s-ill-considered-jaunt-us
Investors Think South Africa Is Safe Again. November's Elections Could Prove Them Wrong (Bheki Mahlobo on the bond market): https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/videos/investors-think-south-africa-is-

Markets have priced South African risk down to almost zero on the belief that the GNU holds after November. Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo explain why the foundations are weaker than in 2024, what would reprice SA's bonds overnight, and how that reaches your bond and credit card rates.
Also this week: Marius Roodt's research showing the DA is bigger than the ANC in the eight metros, more than 100 hung councils ahead, Cape Town's ConCourt win against racial procurement rules, Simon Lincoln-Reader on Dario Amodei's push to regulate AI, Ronald Lamola with Bernie Sanders in New York, and why Germany's hard left and hard right both won.
Become a member of The Common Sense for R99 a month and get all the facts and analysis: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/subscribe
Read the articles discussed:
SA's Cities Have Moved Away from the ANC: Is the Country Next? https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Politics/sa-s-cities-have-moved-away-anc-country-next
Court Blocks Government's Most Prescriptive Racial Procurement Regime Yet: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Politics/court-blocks-government-s-most-prescriptive-racial
Hard Right, Hard Left Each Win State Election in Germany: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Global/hard-right-hard-left-each-win-state-election-germany
The enclave guide, What Families Must Do to Thrive in South Africa's Enclave Future: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Politics/special-report-a-guide-to-what-families-must-do-to-thrive-in-south-africa-s-enclave-future
Simon Lincoln-Reader, Are Calls for AI Regulations Just an Excuse for More Government Control? https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/columns/are-calls-ai-regulations-just-excuse-more-government-control
On the panel: host Gabriel Makin, Frans Cronje and Simon Lincoln-Reader, with guests Bheki Mahlobo, The Common Sense's economics editor, and Marius Roodt, its deputy editor.
Chapters:
0:00 Why markets are so optimistic about the GNU
9:28 Welcome to Talking Sense
11:22 Is the GNU still what it was in 2024?
17:26 Overhang and the Constitutional Court wildcard
22:53 Markets have priced South African risk at zero
25:48 Why bond yields reach your bond and credit card
28:21 Why the DA may be right to leave the GNU
35:47 Cape Town's ConCourt win on racial procurement
42:09 If the 8 metros were a country, the DA would win
45:11 Why the ANC is losing rural South Africa too
52:55 More than 100 hung councils in November
55:09 Why the markets are complacent this time
58:03 Dario Amodei, AI regulation and the effective altruists
1:17:25 Lamola, Bernie Sanders and the national interest
1:27:39 Germany: the AfD and Die Linke both win
1:32:19 How bad policy compounds, from Berlin to MK
1:36:41 Thanks and goodbye
If this was worth your time, subscribe and like the video. It costs you nothing and helps The Common Sense reach more South Africans.