The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

A sustained period of elevated interest rates has the potential to cause pain in the fastest-growing part of corporate debt, according to RBC Global Asset Management. “We are concerned about how the direct lending private credit space would deal with a higher-for-longer world,” said Andrzej Skiba, the firm’s head of US fixed income. “You’re much better off in public markets because the leverage profile, the interest coverage ratios are just so much better,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Mike Holland, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Holland and Skiba also discuss value in financial-sector debt, technology and media bond opportunities, coercive liability management exercises and 2025 bond market returns.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Private credit could become a $40 trillion market in five years, according to Apollo Global Management. “We’re going to get there really soon,” Akila Grewal, the firm’s global head of credit product, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Matt Geudtner in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Currently, “we estimate it’s a $20 trillion market,” she adds, referring to asset-based finance. Grewal and Geudtner also discuss relative risk and returns between public and private markets, retail investment, real estate opportunities, advantages for borrowers to raising capital privately and the fundraising environment. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Credit spreads are poised to hit record tight levels in the first quarter, even as debt issuance rises, according to participants in this special 2025 outlook edition of the Credit Edge podcast, hosted by Bloomberg’s James Crombie. We discuss bonds, loans, private credit — and bourbon — with the following guests: Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research; Ana Arsov, global head of private credit at Moody’s; Matt Brill, Invesco’s head of North America investment-grade credit; Meghan Robson, BNP Paribas’ head of US credit strategy; Meghan Graper, global head of debt capital markets at Barclays; Winnie Cisar, global head of strategy at CreditSights; Matt Mish, head of credit strategy at UBS; Oleg Melentyev, Bank of America’s head of high-yield credit strategy; and Aidan Cheslin, senior credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Swelling demand for limited supply of corporate bonds and loans could spell trouble for credit markets, according to PineBridge Investments. “The thing that gives me a lot of pause right now — and some concern — is the lack of net new supply versus the amount of demand out there,” said Jeremy Burton, the firm’s portfolio manager for US high yield and leveraged loans. “That leads to the risk that the market as a whole will make subpar credit decisions,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst Jody Lurie, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Burton and Lurie also discuss the state of the consumer, default rates, coercive liability management, as well as risks in the media, health care and software sectors.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.