Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth & Investment Management, says he expects inflation will top 4% during the summer, which will put pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates, but that could dramatically increase the potential for recession because rate hikes and oil-driven inflation stocks, historically, have been a recipe for trouble. Cronk, who also serves as president of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that virtually all economic and market outlooks hinge on questions around reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but his outlook remains positive, noting that markets have nearly eclipsed in five months Wells Fargo's forecast for the year, with solid earnings poised to drive things higher from here. In spite of the economic concerns, Cromk is optimistic that it will be "a good year when we put 2026 in the history books."
Jim Lee, founder of StratFi, says the technicals show a market that is somewhat overbought, making it due for a minor pullback of about 5 percent "in the next month or so," but says he would buy the dips because the market has the potential to deliver 20 percent gains when 2026 is done. Lee notes that he particularly likes the "HALO stocks," "heavy asset, low obsolescence" plays that tend to be old-economy dividend-payers, which have done well in 2026 and have momentum that he expects to continue, even if it takes longer than expected to resolve the war in Iran.
Plus, Gordon Hamilton, senior managing director for Kayne Anderson — portfolio manager for the Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure closed-end fund — says 'historic' oil drawdowns are setting up a major call once a peace deal is done for U.S. energy infrastructure companies to meet global demand for propane, butane, crude oil and natural gas. Coupled with an energy "supercycle" driven by artificial-intelligence needs, it has created what should be a persistent long-term opportunity for infrastructure investors.

Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg — a firm that focuses on natural resource investing — says that the war in Iran has already created "the most severe shock to energy markets in history," which he says is three times more severe in terms of barrels produced than anything seen in the 1970s, and that the situation will get markedly worse from here. Rozencwajg says that it takes about 90 days from oil to make it from the well to the consumer; it's now been about 80 days since the wells were shut off because oil couldn't be shipped, which means "We should begin to feel the physical crunch in about 10 days time." He says inventory levels have dropped precipitously, could evaporate if tensions continue and that could lead to oil priced at $150 to $200 per barrel for months, and even after the Strait or Hormuz reopens; while he thinks the economy can avoid recession in those conditions, he acknowledges it would dramatically raise recession risk.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, takies a very different take on energy and power markets, picking a classic utilities sector fund as his "ETF of the Week."
Allison Hadley discusses a study done for American Home Shield, which showed that homeowners spent an average of $3,737 on repairs in 2025, but that nearly one in five of those homeowners had to take on debt to pay for those fixes. Moreover, the survey found that 57% of the homeowners who made repairs were blindsided, meaning the cost came out of nowhere.
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about indexed universal life insurance policies, a popular product among social media influencers that sounds too good to be true, and that probably is for most consumers.

Long-time personal-finance commentator Paul Merriman, founder of the Merriman Financial Education Foundation says that investors haven't taken inflation into consideration the way they have investment returns, and that has the potential to leave them "at risk of being disappointed." Merriman says that investors should "Take 2 percent off of the return for the purposes of thinking about the future, and add 2 percent to what you are thinking in terms of inflation and that would be a more realistic view of the future."
Deana Healy, vice president of financial planning and advice at Ameriprise Financial discusses the firm's recent survey report, "Flying Solo: Navigating Financial Autonomy," which found that 85 percent of financially solo adults feel confident managing their money, but the same number worry about aging alone and navigating the long-term financial decisions that come with it.
Plus Chuck answers two questions from listeners, one about whether people are hiding their spending and their financial health in order to fit in with friends and neighbors — possibly explaining the disconnect between sentiment numbers and spending statistics — and the other from an investors whose portfolio has remain unchanged for decades, and whether staying put with it continues to make sense.

Charles Rotblut, vice president for the American Association of Individual Investors — overseer of the AAII Sentiment Survey — discusses the dramatic drop in bullish sentiment last week and how the big spread between bullish and bearish investors increased so dramatically that it teeters on the edge of becoming a contrary indicator. The sentiment survey has a history of showing that when emotions swing too far in one direction, the market responds by moving in the opposite direction. Still, Rotblut notes that bearish sentiment is "unusually high" and has been above its historical averages for 15 consecutive weeks.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, looks at the wild swings in bond-market sentiment and expectations, whether consumers will keep spending in the face of flagging sentiment and higher costs and introduces us to his alter ego, "Captain Inflation," whose superhero sidekick could be Kevin "The Hawk" Warsh, the new Federal Reserve chairman who will get his first shot at addressing inflation on Thursday.
Plus, Tom Bernard discusses his new book, "The Index of America: How the S&P500 Works and Why You Should Invest In It," and how the leading market indicator will keep up and remain the flagship benchmark for long-term investors. He addresses issues like concentration, diversification, globalization and more.

Eric Stein, chief investment officer at Voya Investment Management, says that  investors can expect interest rates — particularly on longer-term bonds — will keep rising, but those higher reates "will lead to lower rates because you will see a response on the demand side whether it's through the consumer or through the [capital expenditures] cycle." Stein says that if "demand destruction" doesn't slow the economy too much, recession remains avoidable, particularly in the muted economic cycles that the U.S. has been going through in recent years.
In The NAVigator segment,  Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, also says that rates will be coming down, with his estimation being that it happens by the fall because "the worst is over as far as yields going up." Doty says that if oil prices stay below $110 per barrel, it's viewed as inflationary; above that level, "We have a problem, and so does the rest of the world." He says central banks will solve that problem by cutting rates to "save economies from disaster," and likes two-year TIPS, municipal bonds and high-yield corporate bonds to ride out the storm.
Plus, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst and Washington bureau chief at BankRate.com — who recently launched The Hamrick Brief on Substack to give his take on current financial events — discusses mortgage rates and inflation both reaching recent highs, the historical context of those numbers and how, why and when conditions may ease and change.