Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James Investment Management, says a robust earnings landscape — with the S&P 500 expected to achieve over 25 percent earnings growth for the third straight quarter — has been remarkably consistent and has positioned the market to power through most concerns, even as the pace of growth must slow because it can't stay so high forever. As a result, Orton says durability of earnings, rather than multiple expansion, should be a key focal point for investors. Orton also says that while the Federal Reserve will hike rates, he does not expect the hikes — or the current levels of bond yields — to be a significant obstacle to the capital expenditures that are backstopping economic growth.
Chip Lupo discusses the 2026 Holiday Shopping Survey released this week by WalletHub, which found that more than two-thirds of Americans say the economy will make the December holidays less festive this year, with 85% of people planning to spend the same amount or less on the holidays this year compared to last, and with that spending not going quite so far due to inflation. Among other findings, the survey showed a high level of gift fatigue, with 67% of respondents saying they would enjoy the holidays more if people didn't exchange gifts.  
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about a tough decision facing his son, who wants to eliminate debt and is weighing selling a structured settlement from a car accident versus cashing on a small 401(k) balance to get out from under the debt. Neither choice is financially ideal, so Chuck examines the pitfalls of each and weighs in with a different potential solution that might accomplish the goal with less financial pain.

Jeff Blazek, co-chief investment officer for multi-asset strategies at Neuberger, takes a contrarian view of sticky inflation in The Big Interview, saying that it's starting to turn and ease naturally, meaning the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates just once more, and that by early 2027 the energy shock will be rolling back and investors will be less concerned with rising capital costs and economic stability. Those positives, however, won't diminish volatility, making for a bumpy but positive ride next year, with earnings durability being key to determining the companies likely to lead the market into the next phase of the A.I. evolution. Blazek says he expects the economy to avoid recession and the market to skirt a bear market until 2028.
That sentiment — that a bear market isn't likely until 2028 — is shared by D.R. Barton Jr., director of market research for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, though he draws that conclusion through technical analysis, as opposed to Blazek's fundamentals. Barton says that the market is "in the strongest part of the cycle" around midterm elections, noting that there has never been a time going back to 1950 that the stock market wasn't up six and 12 months later. He does worry that current sector rotation could disrupt the cycle, but said he sees mostly good signs that the market can keep moving sharply forward amid heightened volatility.
In The Book Interview, Daniel Altman discusses "The Best Decisions You'll Ever Make: An Economist's Guide to Saving Time, Making Money, and Living Well," which was released today and which explores how economics is at the heart of everyday purchases and more, but is largely ignored by the people making those decisions. By factoring economic in, Altman says consumers can make objectively better decisions and raise their happiness level.

Charles Rotblut, vice president of the American Association of Individual Investors and the keeper of the group's  long-running Sentiment Survey, discusses how pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the stock market increased last week, even before the stock market took a nosedive on Thursday, two days after the midterm elections. Rotblut says that sentiment numbers show that people are unusually at both ends of the spectrum — either highly bullish or bearish — with little action in the middle because the sentiment over the market is polarized between those expecting trouble and investors who expect artificial intelligence to keep carrying the day. Times with little neutral sentiment, Rotblut says, tend to be rare, and tend to be when markets have heightened volatility.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, put Anthropic in "The Danger Zone" pre-IPO about a month ago, based on the limited amount of information the company had published in regulatory documents before going public. Now, in the fastest turnaround in Danger Zone history, Anthropic is back in the Danger Zone, after Trainer says that subsequent documents showed that the deal is definitely a cash-out, a way for insiders to get liquidity before "a money-losing business model" gets a lot worse. Trainer noted that Anthropic's off-balance sheet debt rose by 88% to nearly $900 billion, while revenue growth slowed and costs picked up. With debt holders being paid first, Trainer says the IPO is practically doomed from the start, as the new shareholders effectively will pay off existing debts before they can ever make a penny.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, talks about election fallout, heightened volatility and fear, and whether the market has already moved on, buoyed by a strong jobs report. He says long-term investors "might be seeing a clearance sale" with the market's post-election volatility, and he is hoping for the market to "bounce up" from here.

Russell Rhoads, a professor of financial management at Indiana University and the co-host of Academic Market Insights, says that the market's Wednesday rally was about getting political uncertainty behind us, but Thursday's selloff was focused on flagging fundamentals for artificial-intelligence companies. Rhoads, who acknowledges that being bearish has cost him in terms of missed upside, says that if the market falls through its 200-day moving average, it is likely to be "the every-five-year correction that seems to be a bit overdue right now." He sets that the market could easily shed about 1,000 points on the Standard & Poor's 500, but notes that kind of pain would mostly be a set-up for the next leg up, and would likely move him to where he becomes bullish again.
Mike Dinsdale, chief executive officer at Powerlaw Capital Group says that as companies like SpaceX and OpenAI reach unprecedented valuations, the importance of capturing private markets grows for ordinary investors. To that end, the firm launched Powerlaw Corp., a late-stage private technology closed-end fund on the Nasdaq in May; unlike most closed-end funds that have gravitated toward pre-IPO markets — including the two featured in last week's NAVigator segment — Powerlaw has daily liquidity, which can make investors feel more safe and in control. He also explains how a fund in venture capital — an investment —    area not known for throwing off income — can provide a 6% distribution yield.
In the Market Call, Will McGough, chief investment officer at Prime Capital Financial makes his debut and talks about looking through the labels," — especially when stocks are labeled as being A.I. stocks — to find the right mix of assets to hold now.

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says she expects the post-midterm market to live up to history — meaning it will be up a year from now — but not without bumps and heightened volatility along the way. She expects continued rotation away from the Mag 7 stocks, and thinks that will lead to a Santa Claus rally near year's end, though she notes that Santa's bag may be light this year. One issue she flags is that there will be less stimulus in 2027, not just because of the election results but because 2026 had a lot of stimulus; that reduction may slow the economy enough that the Federal Reserve can avoid major rate cuts, allowing the market to take a gentle pullback, which she thinks would be a good thing before it regathers strength as the rotation plays out.
Nate Miles, head of retirement at Allspring Global Investments, discusses the firm's 2026 Retirement Study, which found that target-date funds and other default choices in retirement plans are more effective and popular with younger workers, but that savers want more control and the chance to generate more income as they approach retirement age. Upon retirement, savers' use of target-date funds drops dramatically, reflecting more nuanced needs that one-size solutions don't fit as comfortably.
Plus, after an election season in which consumers' phones were bombarded with mostly unwanted political messages, Brad Herrmann, chief executive officer at Text-Em-All — a mass-messaging and two-way SMS platform — discusses common texting myths and ways to make the most of technology while avoiding the worst, noting that while consumers want to avoid spam they don't want to miss the latest news from their child's school system. He explains why mass texting and spam aren't the same thing, how to recognize legitimate messages from unfamiliar numbers and when to send STOP messages versus ignoring unsolicited texts completely and more.