Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Eric Stein, chief investment officer at Voya Investment Management, says that  investors can expect interest rates — particularly on longer-term bonds — will keep rising, but those higher reates "will lead to lower rates because you will see a response on the demand side whether it's through the consumer or through the [capital expenditures] cycle." Stein says that if "demand destruction" doesn't slow the economy too much, recession remains avoidable, particularly in the muted economic cycles that the U.S. has been going through in recent years.
In The NAVigator segment,  Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, also says that rates will be coming down, with his estimation being that it happens by the fall because "the worst is over as far as yields going up." Doty says that if oil prices stay below $110 per barrel, it's viewed as inflationary; above that level, "We have a problem, and so does the rest of the world." He says central banks will solve that problem by cutting rates to "save economies from disaster," and likes two-year TIPS, municipal bonds and high-yield corporate bonds to ride out the storm.
Plus, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst and Washington bureau chief at BankRate.com — who recently launched The Hamrick Brief on Substack to give his take on current financial events — discusses mortgage rates and inflation both reaching recent highs, the historical context of those numbers and how, why and when conditions may ease and change.

Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer at KraneShares — which manages a number of funds tied to China — says that President Trump's recent trip to China was viewed very differently overseas than it was in America. In China, the trip was viewed very positively for establishing trade boards, improving communications and laying a foundation for future negotiations. 
Domestically, however, the view of China has been that a tepid consumer is making the economy struggle, and that's before inflation kicks up globally based on oil prices. Ahearn, who also is the author of China Last Night, says China is prepared for oil and gas shortages, but it is looking at domestic consumption stimulus to help rev up consumers to help drive economic growth and improvement. "It's not all rainbows and unicorns over there, economically," he says, "but it's certainly not the apocalypse you would expect either."
One statement in Ahern's Big Interview is that "There's no such thing as China-ex investing," meaning it's hard to buy any funds or ETFs where the holdings truly exclude businesses from China, but Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, actually makes the point that in rare-earth metals, investors may want to take steps to avoid exposure to China. He makes the month-old Sprott Rare Earths Ex-China fund his "ETF of the Week," noting that rare-earth metals are a thematic play akin to buying gold miners, and that the new ETF, by avoiding China, follows a very different path than its longer-established competition.
Plus, Chantel Bonneau Stewart, Wealth Management Advisor at WiseFit Wealth Management and Insurance Solutions at Northwestern Mutual discusses the launch of Northwestern Mutual's Personal Prosperity Index, which in its initial reading found that Americans feel good about the health of their relationships, body, mind and money, but they're not feeling nearly so good about the economy and politics.

Andrew Almeida, director of investments at XYPN, says that investors shouldn't be too active in responding to the news, but he says that geopolitics is a real threat to portfolios, especially as current tensions linger and change the inflation landscape. Almeida — co-host of XYPN's new Balanced PM podcast, which launches today — notes that the risks you take in reacting to the news are at least as big as the risks you accept when you leave your current portfolio in place and ride it out; he discusses the discipline investors need to pursue their goals while not reacting to the proverbial elephant in the room.
Brendan McCann, research analyst at Morningstar discusses the firm's annual U.S. Fund Fee Study, released Tuesday, which showed that reduced fees saved investors $6.8 billion in fund expenses. He says, however, that while the long-term trend in expenses has been down, the industry may be reaching a point where -- thanks to the creation of new types of funds -- future cost reductions become increasingly difficult.
Plus, John Barr, portfolio manager for the Needham Growth and Aggressive Growth funds — featured on yesterday's show for an investment process that earned him the title of "Stock Market Maestro" by author and researcher Lee Freeman-Shor — returns to the show to highlight that methodology talking growth stocks in the Market Call.

John Blank, chief investment strategist and chief economist at Zacks Investment Research, says that global central banks — including the Federal Reserve — have shifted to a rate-hiking mode. While some will wait to see when the Strait of Hormuz opens and how long higher oil prices impact inflation, he thinks the lingering tensions will force their hand. Further, he worries that the market's current levels "don't make sense," saying "multiple compression in the stock market should be [investors'] primary concern." Still, Blank says investors want to be fully invested, but possibly building a cash stash to get through some rougher times that he sees ahead.
Vincent Randazzo, chief market strategist at ViewRight Advisors — co-manager of the recently launched Defender Risk Adaptive 500 ETF — says the market is in a "recovery mode" from a decline it went through just as the war in Iran broke out, and because it's still in the early stages, the recovery is "lumpy," and led by the biggest names. Randazzo, who focuses his research on market breadth, expects this market to broaden out and include more smaller names as the recovery continues to build.
John Barr, portfolio manager for the Needham Funds — selected as a "Stock Market Maestro" by author and researcher Lee Freeman-Shor — discusses having market discipline and what it takes to deliver superior investment results through long-term, patient stock-picking. He also discusses how his methods are different from all of the other maestros Freeman-Shor identified in his book (discussed on the March 26th show), highlighting how there is no one right way to profit in the market.

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy and asset allocation at SLC Management, says that earnings are strong and should keep the stock market rolling, but that signs of weakness shown by the bond market and concerns about how the war in Iran is impacting oil are going to be limiting factors. Mullarkey worries that a longer conflict could turn oil into a global crisis, where rationing and other measures could create more severe and long-lasting economic troubles. If, however, the situation can be resolved quickly, Mullarkey says the shadows over hanging the market should clear quickly, providing a real boost going forward.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, looks at the bond market's sell-off from the end of last week, and while investors can cheer bond yields reaching their year-to-date high, he notes that higher rates could stunt economic growth and hurt the stock market's trajectory. The big thing he expects to impact markets in the week ahead, however, is Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, where he is expecting gonzo numbers but a disappointed market response, simply because investor expectations are sky high. Plus, he discusses community protests over data centers, noting that there are economic consequences buried under the headlines, as limiting data center growth could curtail capital expenditures by tech companies and limit the speed with which artificial intelligence can reach its potential.
Plus, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs puts Shake Shack back in the Danger Zone, noting that the stock — which currently trades in the $60 range after being as high as $144 in the last year — has a negative book value, and is using accounting measures that are clear signs of trouble.