Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Patrick O'Hare, chief market analyst at Briefing.com, says he is concerned about the sustainability of earnings growth, and what it will mean for the market as profits, even if it's more a normalization of profits and not some implosion. particularly in artificial intelligence-powered sectors — normalize. O'Hare has concerns about sticky inflation and high interest rates, mixing into a strong cocktail of side effects for the market. He noted that while the 10-year Treasury has come down from its recent highs, the market hasn't benefited as might be expected "because there are concerns that are starting to percolate about the growth outlook."
Kendall Dilley, portfolio manager at Vineyard Global Advisors, says he is concerned by the market's narrow focus and lack of wide stock support to the upside, but he's still bullish through at least the end of the year, noting that markets historically see choppy consolidative price action heading into a midterm election, then rally afterwards. He noted that post-election day gains have averaged roughly 5.5 percent, with that increase happening in 85 percent of midterm election years. Dilley hopes that rally will broaden the market's upside participation; if it doesn't, that will be a red flag, alerting to potential trouble in the new year.
Chip Lupo of WalletHub discusses the site's 2026 Halloween Spending and Financial Fears Survey, which found that more than two-thirds of Americans think Halloween is too expensive, with slightly more people saying they're planning to cut their financial layouts this year compared to last year. Speaking more broadly about financial fears around the holiday, the survey found that 88 percent of people are "fearful" of this economy, with a large chunk of that group being most scared about sticky inflation.

David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs has been warning about off-balance sheet debt concerns — particularly among popular artificial-intelligence stocks — for months, but he returns to the subject today by putting "companies with the most hidden debt expenses" in the Danger Zone. While he says they are a lot of big names with messy balance sheets, he identifies four stocks by name, Meta Platforms, Oracle, Disney and Lockheed Martin as companies where adjusting earnings to reflect hidden expenses would dramatically drop profit numbers. Trainer noted that the majority of the S&P 500 companies do not have this kind of hidden-debt expense, but the ones that do indulge go for it heavily, to where profits could easily be 10 percent or more less than Wall Street thinks they are by sticking with ordinary accounting disclosures.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital discusses the good and bad for investors in having a few companies driving Wall Street to record highs while the majority of stocks are struggling, how it's possible to be building an A.I. bubble in the middle of a bull market, and how investors should deal with the duality of those conditions, and more.
Robert Farrington, founder of The College Investor, goes Off The News with Chuck, discussing a decision the Trump Administration made last week to end its legal fight that would have overhauled a popular student-loan forgiveness program. Judges had previously ruled in favor of the Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program, which under proposed rules changes could have become a weaponized tool for political retribution. Farrington notes that while the decision keeps the plan in place, it does not end the logjam on proposed student-loan rules changes, nor does it clear the way for a lot of graduates to get out from under their debts.

Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner at Goehring and Rozencwajg, says the spike in diesel prices — rather than crude-oil prices — was the unexpected symptom of trouble coming from the Iran War, and that an oil shock can start with diesel and move to crude, so "We're in a little bit of a calm before the storm picks up again." Rozencwajg says that even if the war were to end tomorrow and the Strait of Hormuz re-opened, crude oil prices would be due for a spike, if only as a temporary condition to try to relieve diesel shortages. The good news for energy investors, however, is that there is "a huge bull market ahead" for energy stocks; Rozencwajg says "We're in the early innings of it" and that it has a long way to run, which should give investors confidence that they can ride out the volatility that is likely to come as the oil headlines play out.
Steve Baffico, executive vice president and head of listed products at Bluerock — managers of the Bluerock Private Real Estate Fund — discusses the private real estate market and how it is changing, due to concerns over interest rates, the growth of A.I. infrastructure and struggles in the life-sciences and biotech real estate businesses and more. He discusses how the fund continues to perform through a recent transition, a process which has pushed the fund's discount to more than 40 percent, and the steps the firm is taking to narrow the discount and complete the process of reshaping the way it invests.
Plus, Chuck discusses Elon Musk's recent pledge of one share of SpaceX stock to every child in America, and how and why billionaires are offering up shares in support of public programs, and whether these kinds of promises are real and meaningful or just the latest public-relations tool for the super-rich.

Michael Green, chief investment officer at Tier1 Alpha Asset Management, says that the domination of index funds and passive investing has changed market kinetics, systematically pushing money to the largest names, contributing to the current phenomenon where a few mega-cap stocks have carried the market to record highs while most smaller index constituents have struggled. Over time, the continued shift toward passive investing has created a situation that can lead to extremes, in both directions. As a result, he says investors need to be prepared to navigate heightened market volatility, even as they ride market trends to record highs.
With gold having been on a rocky path this year — having peaked early and struggled since — Dana Samuelson, founder and president of American Gold Exchange, returns to Money Life to discuss how market and economic forces have shaken precious metals. Samuelson -- who said in an April interview that he expected gold to recover from the initial shock of the Iran War to return to hit a new record of $6,000 per ounce within 18 months -- says the rebound is still plausible but the timeline has changed. He discusses how inflation, interest rates and demand for the more-industrial white metals — silver, platinum and palladium — are impacting markets now, and what he believes needs to happen for precious metals to rebound.
Plus, Chuck answers a question from a listener about whether election integrity in the mid-terms could become a concern for the market, and perhaps have more influence on the economy moving forward than which party wins control of the House and Senate.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief executive and chief strategist at QI Research, says the stock market "is shooting off warning signals" indicative of a market top, and she fears that news around inflated artificial-intelligence earnings and "echoes of Enron" in expansive use of off-balance sheet financing to pay for expansion could be what leads to a recession or something worse. DiMartino Booth says that valuations are more stretched than they were during the Enron era, and she says that "earnings quality" is what investors should be questioning. "I think right now is the best time to have a very close relationship with your financial advisor," DiMartino Booth says, "and have them guiding you not just to indexes, but to specific areas that we know will benefit regardless of what's to come with the AI trade.
Mark Hamrick, chief economic analyst at The Hamrick Brief, goes Off the News on Tuesday's pending home sales numbers, which he says made it clear that "This is a pretty grim time for the housing market," but that the trouble goes beyond buyers and sellers because housing is a key economic sector that is already in the deep freeze before winter, a seasonally bad time, even arrives. He also discusses how the housing numbers are doubling up on the lock-in effect for many long-time and/or older homeowners who have a low-rate mortgage — so that trading houses means getting a new, more-expensive loan — and who now would be looking potentially at a diminished sale price on their property; if they're even less willing to move now, it slows the sector further.
Plus, Chuck has for over a decade offered the trick-or-treaters in his neighborhood a chance to pick cash or candy, and to trade candy with him in hopes of getting a bigger treat. He's got a wild new twist this year and he discusses what he is doing, how you can adapt it to your own circumstances and neighborhood — even one that gets few trick-or-treaters — and how even something as simple as a cash-or-candy choice can teach basic financial decision-making.