Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Economist Rebecca Homkes, a lecturer at Duke University and London Business School whose consulting practice focuses on the things that influence the thinking of chief executives, says that the valuations of A.I. companies are sky high because investors believe in the transformational technology, but that when that transformation shows up — and investors worry that an industry like software could get pinched in the transformation — investors tend to panic. She sees concerns that the A.I. funding cycle has become so circular that any troubles could unwind the market quickly, so while she is not expecting a recession or a bubble quickly, she does suggest danger signs are visible now.
Carter Braxton Worth, chief executive officer at Worth Charting — known by many as "the Chart Master" on CNBC — brings technical analysis to the Market Call, noting that he doesn't study companies, he studies shares. Worth notes that he currently favors small-cap financials, utilities and energy companies, and he warns of the "bifurcation of technology," where one area of the sector does very well while another one does very poorly, which he considers a sign of potential trouble ahead. This bifurcation is similar -- but with a technical analysis bent -- to Homkes' explanation of the wild market responses to AI stocks.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, brings the proverbial hammer of THOR to the ETF of the Week, bestowing the weekly title to a new income-focused stock fund  from Thornburg that carries that mythic ticker symbol.

David Ellison, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Funds, says that investor expectations have gotten far enough out of line that the positive conditions and long-term market uptrend just don't seem like they are enough to deliver satisfaction. While unsustainable expectations by themselves won't create a downturn, Ellison — who runs two funds focused on financial-services companies — worries that the sector and the broad market will face more volatility as steady but unspectacular gains are seen as disappointments. He notes that markets can struggle when everyone lacks patience and "thinks they have learned the lesson without reading the book."
Research analyst Matt Zajechowski discusses a survey conducted by Lemon Law Experts which found that the typical American with car buying regrets believes they overspent by nearly $5,000 on their most recent car. It also found that car buyers often regret everything from the technology they wish their latest car had to the color they picked, and that any and all regrets have them thinking they will sell their car sooner than they expected when they purchased it.
In the Market Call, Garvin Jabusch, chief investment officer at Green Alpha Advisors, is talking stocks, and discussing "strategic resilience" as an investment thesis and factor that helps to identify companies with long-term stability amid fast-changing industries.

Economist Lawrence Kotlikoff, a professor at Boston University and the founder of Maxifi, says that "irrational exuberance" is something that routinely returns to the market, which is why so many crises over history get labeled with the word "panic," and while he does not see current conditions leading to that yet, he does think the market and economy have significantly more downside risk than upside potential right now. Kotlikoff, a prolific author on the markets and economy, says investors should be taking advantage of high real returns on inflation-protected bonds and less interested in a stock market that feels like it is building a bubble. He also discusses the future of Social Security, which he has researched extensively, and says it needs a complete overhaul, because the math on short-term fixes gets ugly for individual Americans fast.
In an extended Money Life Market Call, Tom Plumb, portfolio manager for The Plumb Funds — Plumb Equity and Plumb Balanced — discusses finding "disruptive growth companies," and notes that while everyone wants to assume that all artificial-intelligence related stocks are "disruptive," the reality of who will be the ultimate winners and losers amid the new technology is less clear than the market currently makes it out to be.

David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs, puts some big-name soon-to-IPO artificial-intelligence companies in The Danger Zone this week, saying he has concerns about what they are paying for inputs compared to foreign competitors, and noting that cost disadvantages will multiply and worsen the more A.I. becomes a commodity that everyone uses. He says this is part of every industrial revolution cycle, and often becomes a big determinant in which early players survive and thrive.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses today's launch of single-stock futures by the CME Group, noting that they are more a gamble than an investment and saying he never would have used them for ordinary consumers during his days as a financial planner. Where the herd is moving towards these instruments and being scared out of some A.I. companies based on the market's capital-spending concerns, Marolia says most of those market fears have been overblown, and that a careful long-term investor will find buying opportunities amid the near daily wreckage. Plus, he discusses how high electric bills — jacked up by a heat wave that has caused high usage but also by energy concerns — are the extra cost consumers are not talking about while they are busy complaining about gas prices. 
Charles Rotblut, vice president for the American Association of Individual Investors, discusses their latest sentiment survey results, which showed a striking drop in optimism, with bullish sentiment levels dropping by more than 15 percentage points last week as the war in Iran started heating up again. Bullish sentiment was well below its historical averages for the third time in the last four weeks, while bearish sentiment reached levels Rotblut characterized as "unusually high." Bearish sentiment has been above its historical averages for nearly 6 months straight.
Martha Moore discusses the latest Business Conditions Survey out today from the National Association for Business Economics, which showed that confidence in the economy has improved but the caution level remains high. Moore, the chief economist for the American Chemistry Council, noted that for the fifth time in the last six quarters, the number of economists predicting lower forward profits was bigger than those expecting higher earnings, but she also said that more than one third of the economists are expecting higher capital expenditures over the next quarter, spending that will boost the economy in the face of mixed results on profitability.

Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X ETFs, says that while the Iran War got the headlines, trade negotiations will be the story that carries the market forward for the rest of the year, provided there are no policy stumbles. He says the market has calmed down around Fed policy and while midterm elections tend to make for tough markets, there have been strongly positive results after midterms when a unified power structure — the President, Senate and Congress all being on one side of the political aisle — transitions to a divided leadership. Helfstein has plenty of reasons for optimism, noting all of the ways the market and economy have powered through trouble, and says that he expects slower earnings growth but better profitability from the market moving into next year, and he notes that better profitability leads to higher multiples, a healthy economy and higher level for the stock market.
John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, dug into data from his firm's quarterly outlook presentation to show that while business-development companies faced a lot of headline and interest-rate risk and were beaten up in the market recently, they are poised to rebound sharply in the second half of the year, particularly as the Federal Reserve provides more clarity on what's next for interest rates. Scott, the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, noted that closed-end funds had a strong quarter b ut that the gains came more from rising prices than from narrowing discounts, a sign that good things could be ahead if market sentiment gets stronger.
Allison Hadley discusses PartnerCentric's 2026 Buy Now, Pay Later survey, which showed that payment programs are a big way that consumers are dealing with higher inflation and lower affordability. The survey showed that use of BNPL programs is up 20% year over year, but the typical buy now, pay later transaction amount has gotten smaller, which Hadley says is a sign that people are increasingly turning to payment programs for ordinary, everyday purchases.