Forward Guidance

Markets are sending mixed signals with geopolitics, inflation, and positioning all pointing in different directions, raising concerns about whether this rally is real or just a temporary squeeze before the next leg down.

This week, we break down how the proposed ceasefire and AI acceleration are colliding with market structure in a battle of fundamentals vs flows.

We explore AI-led productivity boom, Trump's political dilemma, Fed policy uncertainty, gold’s resurgence, and whether dispersion, not direction, is the real trade. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

04:21 Ceasefire Reality Check

07:28 Positioning Fuels the Bounce

11:25 Can VIX Stay Low?

14:28 Countertrend Rally or Not?

19:09 AI Compute Still Leads

28:11 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)

30:06 Fed Cuts or Wishful Thinking?

34:05 China The New Bond Haven?

38:13 Best Trades in This Regime

44:14 Gold and Market Manipulation

49:50 Buy Non-US Again?

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/18AkSBzt_7Y_B8HX6BdbUyJ-kr7Q6Sqsq/view?usp=sharing

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

A war few expected to last this long is exposing how fragile global systems really are, raising a deeper question about whether we're witnessing a temporary disruption or the end of a the U.S. unipolar era.

Geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro joins us to break down the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, and how shifting power dynamics are reshaping global markets and strategy.

We unpack shipping flows, supply chain fractures, energy chokepoints, multipolarity, and why markets may be underestimating cascading global disruptions. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:42 Iran War Framework

07:23 What Actually Matters

11:46 Counting Ships, Not Headlines

15:59 Beyond Hormuz

20:20 Hidden Supply Chain Risks

25:20 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)

27:11 How Long Until Damage?

32:01 Negotiations or Theater?

35:55 Why Markets Still Shrug

40:18 China’s Quiet Advantage

47:56 The Bull Case Remains

FOLLOW GUEST

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/JacobShap

› Website – https://jacobshapiro.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

›. Felix– https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance. isa recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI is much more than another tech cycle. It’s a structural break that’s rewriting how economies function, how markets price assets, and how humans create value.

We sit down with Jordi Visser of 22V Research live from the Digital Asset Summit in New York to unpack how the shift from chatbots to autonomous agents is reshaping productivity, markets, and long-term economic frameworks.

We explore collapsing valuation models, AI-driven productivity, shifting labor dynamics, the compute arms race, and why Bitcoin, semiconductors, and hard assets may define the next cycle. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:23 AI Changes Macro Frameworks

06:28 Productivity Boom or Bust?

09:19 Why Bitcoin Benefits

12:42 AI and the Labor Market

15:55 The Sovereign AI Arms Race

19:15 Can New Models Catch Up?

22:58 Why Compute Demand Is Infinite

26:44 Hardware vs. Software

29:14 How to Actually Use AI

FOLLOW GUEST

› Jordi – https://x.com/jvisserlabs

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets appear frozen, but under the surface, positioning shifts and macro pressures suggest something far more unstable is unfolding.

We’re back with the trio dissecting market structure, geopolitical risks, and the growing disconnect between headlines and actual capital flows.

We dig into extreme hedging, volatility-driven moves, inflation from energy shocks, rotation into real assets, and looming credit stress that could force unconventional policy responses. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

06:36 Overhedged Market Setup

11:51 Why Volatility Misfires

15:11 Rotation Into Real Assets

18:12 Flows Over Fundamentals

22:00 Oil’s Inflation Corridor

29:48 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)

31:25 Bear Flatteners, Bad Bonds

40:18 Wartime Capital Allocation

47:04 AI Compute Still Booming

55:01 Inflation Path, Not Politics

59:12 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VIgcvSAxR2kJPUjPsa7gjWFQPszL8atC/view?usp=sharing

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users. residing incertain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold. positions in thecompanies, funds, or projects discussed.

Policy may be reacting to the wrong signals, as powerful structural forces quietly reshape inflation and the economy beneath the surface.

In this episode live from the Digital Asset Summit, we sit down with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran to unpack his recent dissent and why he believes inflation risks are overstated while the labor market deserves more support.

We explore oil shocks vs policy lags, AI and deregulation as disinflationary forces, shifts in the neutral rate, and how stablecoins could reshape global dollar demand. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:11 Why Miran Dissented

04:51 Looking Through Oil Shocks

06:36 AI And Deregulation Disinflate

10:04 The Case For Neutral

12:30 What Sets Neutral Rates

16:12 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)

17:50 Where "Running It Hot" Narrative Fails

25:02 Skinny Master Accounts

27:02 Stablecoins And Dollar Demand

30:51 Tokenized Deposits Or Stablecoins

FOLLOW GUEST

› Federal Reserve – https://x.com/federalreserve

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside. the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto— and act on that information.

Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.