Forward Guidance

Inflation may be reaccelerating just as policymakers are mistaking inaction for restraint.

Danny Dayan joins the show to explain why passive easing, loose financial conditions, and supply shocks could leave the Fed behind the curve again.

We discuss inflation, oil, labor supply, neutral rates, risk assets, the dollar, commodities, and why the melt-up may continue. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:53 Why Is Growth So Strong?

07:31 How Forward Guidance Drives Policy

11:53 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

12:45 Why Oil Hasn’t Broken Growth

19:02 Why Inflation Won’t Die

21:52 What Warsh Changes At The Fed

29:54 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

30:38 Why The Fed Is Always Late

36:45 The Fed’s Neutral Rate Mistake

43:05 The Melt-Up Trade Setup

48:57 Where To Find Danny

FOLLOW DANNY DAYAN

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/DannyDayan5

› Substack – https://dannydayan.substack.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› FIDELITY CRYPTO

This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto

Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto.

Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets may be entering a volatile new regime where inflation, geopolitics, and policy fragmentation collide, challenging the stability investors have relied on for decades.

This week, we break down the latest Fed meeting and what it signals about shifting power from central banks toward fiscal and political forces shaping markets.

We also explore rising inflation pressures, fiscal dominance, oil shocks, Japan’s growing instability, and why traditional macro playbooks may no longer apply. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:08 Fed Dissents And Warsh

08:45 No Cuts Without Crisis

11:04 End Of The Powell Era

14:03 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

15:01 Global Yields Break Higher

17:23 Inflationary Growth Regime

20:11 Oil Shock Hits Markets

23:25 Export Ban Risk

28:26 Late Cycle Boom

36:34 Japan’s Breaking Point

48:24 Carry Trade Lose Lose

53:08 The Yield Smile

57:05 Inflation Wave Baked In

01:00:25 Hard Assets Win

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pKJPVYyMItlwJcDPJiD2ST19OzeojYPB/view?usp=sharing

SPONSORS

› FIDELITY CRYPTO

This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto

Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto.

Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI may be the most powerful economic force since the internet, but its true impact remains deeply uncertain.

Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg and a macroeconomist by training, joins us to unpack how AI is reshaping markets, investment cycles, and economic thinking. We explore whether this is just another bubble or something far more structural.

We dive into AI-driven capex, productivity illusions, labor market shifts, inflation dynamics, and whether AI can actually solve the U.S. debt problem. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:21 AI’s Macro Impact

06:48 Historical Tech Bubbles

10:25 AI Capex Drives Growth

14:13 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

15:23 How Big Can The Bubble Get?

20:14 Agentic AI Compute Demand

24:10 AI Is Too Cheap

28:15 Productivity Mirage

33:03 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

34:24 Fed Policy And AI

41:02 Can AI Fix Debt?

47:34 Physical World Bottlenecks

49:47 The Future Of Economics

FOLLOW STEVE HOU

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› FIDELITY CRYPTO

This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto

Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto.

Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets feel stable on the surface, but conflicting forces are building around Fed uncertainty, AI-driven growth, and structural imbalances that may not coexist for long.

This week, we break down break down the Warsh hearing and concerns over Fed credibility to a potential re-industrialization and what’s actually driving resilience in the economy.

We also explore AI-driven capex as the true growth engine, labor and credit dynamics, geopolitical pressures, dollar dominance, and the growing tension between asset inflation and societal change. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

04:49 Kevin Warsh Hearing

13:11 Oil Shock Meets Strong Data

16:51 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

17:15 AI Capex Boom

24:02 Data Centers Remake Economy

33:25 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

34:12 Church Beats OnlyFans

47:04 Dollar Dominance Surges

51:47 Dollar Wrecking Ball

57:58 ESG Trade Dies

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vCQT4biQJI-d10B0-OuD7MxJlq-kW9tl/view?usp=sharing

SPONSORS

› FIDELITY CRYPTO

This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto

Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto.

Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Liquidity may be sending a very different signal than most investors think, challenging the dominant narrative around growth, rates, and risk.

We sit down with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, a leading voice on global liquidity, to unpack where we are in the cycle and why his framework diverges from consensus views on markets and the economy.

We explore the liquidity vs. business cycle divide, yield curve dynamics, Treasury-driven liquidity, rising commodities, and why all signals may be pointing toward a late-cycle shift. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:31 Global Liquidity Turning Lower

06:24 Liquidity Cycle vs Economy

11:29 Recession Fears vs Data

17:28 Treasury Stimulus and Buybacks

23:40 Why Bond Volatility Matters

31:56 Warsh and the Next Regime

39:29 What Interest Rates Really Mean

47:13 Positioning for Turbulence

58:08 Where to Follow Michael

FOLLOW MICHAEL

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/crossbordercap

› Substack – https://capitalwars.substack.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.