You’ll hear consequential ideas here first, and in the mainstream months later. Upstream is a curated nexus feed from the Turpentine podcast network, bringing y...
E126: Data Center Economics and AI Energy Requirements w/ Patrick McKenzie and Azeem Azhar
Today on Upstream, we’re releasing Patrick MacKenzie's interview with Azeem Azhar which originally aired in February 2025 on Complex Systems. They discuss the economics and infrastructure of data centers, comparing historical infrastructure rollouts to modern AI-driven data center needs, and explore the implications of exponential power demands, including innovations like small modular nuclear reactors and geothermal energy.
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RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11/id1753399812
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SPONSORS:
☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine
🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world.
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LINKS:
Exponential View: https://www.exponentialview.co/
OpenAI Hails $500 Billion Stargate Plan: 'More Compute Leads to Better Models': https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-01-22-2025/card/openai-to-release-new-gpt-model-ai-agents-soon-MrUYupSuChEdJh07oIWp
Byrne Hobart’s ‘Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnatiom’: https://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bubbles-Stagnation-Byrne-Hobart/dp/1953953476
Inside the World's Largest AI Supercluster xAI Colossus: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jf8EPSBZU7Y&t=142s
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead: https://situational-awareness.ai/
Dave Kasten’s The Essay Meta: https://davekasten.substack.com/p/welcome-to-the-essay-meta
Travis Dauwalter’s Complex Systems episode: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/electricity-grids-travis-dauwalter/
Austin Vernon (Fracking) Complex Systems: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/fracking-austin-vernon/
Project InnerSpace Resources: https://projectinnerspace.org/resources/
Bloom Filters Explained: https://systemdesign.one/bloom-filters-explained/
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X / TWITTER:
@azeem
@patio11
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
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1:17:05
E125: Palantir’s Politics, Elon’s Approach to DOGE, and AI’s Effects on Writing w/ Byrne Hobart
Today on Upstream, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg dive into the wide-ranging effects of technological change on media and society. They cover the AI debate, blogging's social impact, AI's influence on search and data, the changing news industry, foreign aid cuts, and the rise of new tech elites.
This episode originally aired on The Riff (March 11, 2025).
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RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast
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SPONSORS:
☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine
🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world.
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💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
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LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co
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X / TWITTER:
@byrnehobart
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
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HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
AI's impact on written content is overstated despite its technical achievements.
The social adjustment to blogging was more disruptive than our current adjustment to AI-generated content.
Traditional media eventually incorporated blogging and adapted to different publishing cadences.
"Real news" remains the least lucrative part of the news business.
Media outlets drive partisan narratives through topic selection, not just content framing.
Readers generally don't want nuanced views that might challenge their existing beliefs.
Bezos positioned the Washington Post to serve growth-oriented progressives and non-Trumpist conservatives.
Elon Musk's "Doge" review of USAID may use a strategy of cutting drastically then restoring essential services.
Programs like PEPFAR (AIDS relief) have extremely high returns on investment that shouldn't be overlooked.
US military spending could be viewed as a form of foreign aid by preventing global conflicts.
Karp critiques tech for excelling at "delivering delightful trivialities" but neglecting serious national challenges.
Silicon Valley has shifted from "atheist libertarianism" to more nationalist viewpoints.
Companies like Palantir represent a public-private synthesis of government capability.
Tech companies had anti-establishment cultures when small but now are the establishment themselves.
Education polarization has strongly influenced political alignments in the tech industry.
When outsiders become insiders, they need to adopt more pragmatic governance approaches.
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58:51
E124: How to Have A Philosophical Marriage w/ Agnes Callard and Arnold Brooks
Today on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode from Modern Relationships which originally aired on February 28, 2025 where Erik Torenberg interviews philosophy professors Agnes Callard and Arnold Brooks about their unconventional marriage, the role of philosophy in their relationship, the impact of their public profile, and how they balance personal and philosophical life together.
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RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod
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SPONSORS:
☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine
🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world.
🕵️♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream
💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
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LINKS:
New Yorker article on Agnes and Arnold, by Rachel Aviv: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/03/13/agnes-callard-profile-marriage-philosophy
Agnes Callard: https://philosophy.uchicago.edu/faculty/a-callard
Arnold Brooks: https://philosophy.uchicago.edu/arnold-brooks
Pre-order Agnes Callard's new book Open Socrates: https://wwnorton.com/books/open-socrates
Agnes Callard on Upstream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JotaCsaG3Y
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X / TWITTER:
@AgnesCallard
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
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HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
Agnes Callard and Arnold Brooks are philosophy professors at University of Chicago who met when she was his teacher, leading to her divorce from Ben and marriage to Arnold.
Agnes was initially attracted to Arnold's remarkable ability to interpret Aristotle, which she considered more impressive than conventional attractive qualities.
Arnold was drawn to Agnes as a "fellow philosopher" in a specific way he hadn't experienced with anyone else before.
Their philosophical disagreement centers on whether marriage is something achievable to build upon (Arnold's view) or an indefinite pursuit toward an ideal that may be beyond reach (Agnes's view).
Agnes provocatively stated "marriage is a preparation for divorce" - not meaning marriages should end, but that relationships require navigating difficult circumstances.
They maintain an unusual living arrangement where Agnes, Arnold, and her ex-husband Ben all live together and co-parent.
Arnold says his primary attraction is simply witnessing Agnes's way of living, which doesn't require reciprocation.
They caution against basing relationships solely on reciprocal goods (I support you, you support me).
Their approach to raising "interesting" children involves asking them abstract questions rather than concrete ones.
Their New Yorker profile brought public attention that Agnes believes says more about readers' fascination than about their actual relationship.
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1:12:09
E123: Trump & The Game of Populism w/ Samo Burja
Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the limitations of populist politics, the difficulty populists face in effecting change despite electoral wins, and the influence of digital democracy on modern governance.
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RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:
🎙️Live Players
Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg provide analysis of the news and case studies of Live Players, as well as key institutions and technologies that make up the global power landscape.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-players-with-samo-burja-and-erik-torenberg/id1718925188
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fbMTkHBnom1JIBWYNVBK1?si=01ed191c74264f55
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@LivePlayerswithSamoBurja
—
SPONSORS:
☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine
🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world.
🕵️♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream
💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
—
LINKS:
Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
—
X / TWITTER:
@samoburja
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
—
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
Populists win elections but struggle to govern effectively against entrenched bureaucracies.
Modern populism confronts administrative states, unlike historical populism that opposed monarchies.
The administrative state was ironically strengthened by early 20th century populist movements.
Case studies (Hungary, Brexit) show winning elections doesn't guarantee successful implementation.
Trump faces resistance from within the Republican Party, limiting his appointment power.
Elon Musk and X.com provide Trump stronger tools than he had in 2016.
Left populism offers direct benefits while right populism promises protection from threats.
Samo suggests tech elites could pool money to counter traditional Republican donors' influence.
Future Democratic success may come from candidates combining progressive policies with family-oriented messaging.
Populism emerged through internet's bypass of traditional media gatekeepers.
Western democracies need a new balance between populist movements and administrative institutions.
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59:15
E122: Victor Davis Hanson on What Trump Thinks of Zelensky and Predicting Geopolitics
In this Upstream episode, Erik Torenberg sits down with military historian Victor Davis Hanson. They discuss the future of Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, the evolution of the American left, and Donald Trump's potential future legacy.
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📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
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SPONSORS:
☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine
🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world.
🕵️♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream
💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
—
LINKS:
Official site: https://victorhanson.com/
The Victor Davis Hanson podcast: https://victorhanson.com/podcasts/
Hoover Institution - featured publications and videos: https://www.hoover.org/profiles/victor-davis-hanson
Erik's substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/
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X / TWITTER:
@VDHanson
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
—
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
Trump's second term will likely be less chaotic due to appointees who align with his agenda.
The Republican party is now more unified without "Never Trumpers."
Trump expanded his coalition by winning significant portions of Hispanic and Black male votes.
JD Vance is positioned as a strong 2028 candidate due to his background and communication skills.
Europe will likely move politically rightward due to economic and defense inadequacies.
Germany maintains trade surpluses while not meeting NATO defense spending requirements.
The US-European relationship has become unbalanced with Europeans criticizing while depending on American defense.
The Ukraine-Russia conflict will likely end with a DMZ rather than Ukraine reclaiming all territory.
Putin invaded Ukraine because he perceived weakness in US leadership.
Western interference in Ukrainian politics contributed to tensions.
Trump's peace plan includes strategic investment in Ukrainian minerals near the DMZ.
There's inconsistency in how the US approaches Ukraine versus Israel regarding civilian casualties.
China is less likely to invade Taiwan compared to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Pacific allies are actively rearming against Chinese threats.
New warfare technologies like drones may prove more effective for Taiwan's defense than traditional carriers.
Israel struggles to convert tactical victories into strategic resolution.
"Abraham Accords" allies have complex motivations including concerns about Iran.
Western democracies struggle with asymmetric warfare and maintaining resolve for definitive victory.
Democrats should return to Clinton-era policies on borders, crime, and budgets.
Democrats are controlled by a hard left with positions only 20% of Americans support.
Trump is transforming American politics from race-based to class-based coalition building.
Republicans are becoming "the party of the middle class" while Democrats represent coastal elites and the subsidized poor.
You’ll hear consequential ideas here first, and in the mainstream months later. Upstream is a curated nexus feed from the Turpentine podcast network, bringing you expert-level conversations hosted by some of the most compelling thinkers in the world including Noah Smith, Samo Burja, Byrne Hobart, Erik Torenberg, and Nathan Labenz. Guests include Marc Andreessen, Balaji Srinivasan, Dario Amodei, Brian Armstrong, David Sacks, Sam Harris, Katherine Boyle, Curtis Yarvin, and many more unmissable conversations.
Upstream is part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: turpentine.co
Listen to "Upstream" with Erik Torenberg, All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg and many other podcasts from around the world with the radio.net app
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