The Human Risk Podcast

What if prediction isn’t about knowing the future, but controlling it?  On this episode, I'm joined by a leading thinker on digital ethics, privacy and technology to explore the idea of prophecy.

Episode Summary
My guest is Dr Carissa Véliz and in our discussion, we talk about humanity’s long-standing obsession with predicting what comes next, and why today’s algorithms may be the most powerful (and dangerous) prophets we’ve ever created. 

From ancient oracles and court astrologers to modern AI systems and tech executives, we explore how prediction has always been less about knowledge and more about power. What becomes clear is that while the tools have changed, the underlying dynamics haven’t. We still crave certainty, we still look for authority, and we’re still willing to trust those who claim to see the future. The difference now is scale: predictive technologies don’t just forecast behaviour; they shape it. And the more accurate they appear, the less likely we are to question them. 

We then explore responsibility. If prediction influences reality, then our willingness to accept it matters. This episode is a reminder that the future isn’t something that simply happens to us, but something we’re actively participating in, whether we realise it or not.

Guest Bio
Dr Carissa Véliz is Associate Professor of Philosophy at the Institute for Ethics in AI and a Fellow at Hertford College at the University of Oxford. She is a leading thinker on digital ethics, privacy, and technology. She is the author of several books including her latest release 'Prophecy: Prediction, Power and the Fight for the Future, from Ancient Oracles to AI' and 'Privacy Is Power: Why and How You Should Take Back Control of Your Data '

Her work explores how data, AI, and predictive systems reshape society—often in ways that are invisible but deeply consequential. Drawing on philosophy, history, and real-world systems, she examines how power operates through technology and what individuals and institutions can do to resist it.

AI-Generated TImestamped Summary
[00:00:00] Opening: prediction as something that shapes—not reveals—the future
[00:01:00] Why prophecy is a lens for understanding modern AI
[00:04:00] Kings, prophets, and the risks of getting predictions wrong
[00:06:00] Survival strategies of ancient astrologers
[00:08:00] Why humans crave certainty—and who exploits it
[00:10:00] The danger of mistaking wealth for wisdom
[00:12:00] Prediction as a tool of power throughout history
[00:14:00] Surveillance as the foundation of modern prediction
[00:16:00] How predictions shape behaviour (self-fulfilling dynamics)
[00:17:00] Publishing as a case study in manufactured success
[00:21:00] The strange economics of pre-orders and attention
[00:23:00] Insurance: from solidarity to individualised risk
[00:26:00] The hidden systemic risks of personalised prediction
[00:30:00] Why citizens need to reclaim agency
[00:31:00] Laziness vs values: why we default to algorithms
[00:33:00] Tech creating problems it then claims to solve
[00:34:00] The role of humour as truth-telling
[00:35:00] Why algorithms would have killed Seinfeld
[00:40:00] Practical alternatives: preparation over prediction
[00:42:00] The importance of serendipity
[00:43:00] Rediscovering the analogue world
[00:46:00] Algorithms shaping culture and environments
[00:48:00] Optimism vs doom in thinking about technology
[00:50:00] Writing as exploration, not prediction
Links
Carissa's website - https://www.carissaveliz.com/

Her new book, Prophecy - https://www.carissaveliz.com/prophecy

Her previous book Privacy Is Power - https://www.carissaveliz.com/books

Carissa's faculty page - https://www.oxford-aiethics.ox.ac.uk/dr-carissa-veliz

Carissa on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/carissa-v%C3%A9liz-a5781555/

We like to think we choose what matters. But what if the goals we’re chasing… aren’t actually ours?

Episode Summary
My guest on this episode is Dr. C. Thi Nguyen, philosopher and author of The Score: How to Stop Playing Somebody Else’s Game, a book about how metrics, scoring systems, and “games” shape our behaviour—often without us realising it. Thi explains how his work on games led him to a deeper question: why do scoring systems make games feel meaningful, but make real life feel distorted? The answer lies in how metrics redefine success—quietly shifting us from what we care about to what we can measure.

In a wide-ranging discussion, we explore the idea of “value capture”, why institutions rely on simplified proxies, and how the very features that make metrics useful also make them dangerous. We also discuss expertise, transparency, gamification, and why removing metrics altogether doesn’t solve the problem. This is a conversation about control: who sets the rules, who keeps score, and what happens when we stop questioning the game we’re playing. 

Guest Bio
Dr. C. Thi Nguyen is a philosopher whose work explores how games, metrics, and social systems shape human behaviour and values. A professor of philosophy at the University of Utah, his research sits at the intersection of ethics, decision-making, and the philosophy of agency, with a particular focus on how the structures around us influence what we care about and how we act.

Alongside his academic work, Thi is also a keen gamer, rock climber, and cook; interests that inform his thinking about play, challenge, and the richness of human experience beyond what can be easily measured.

AI-Generated Timestamped Summary
00:00 – Introduction: games, metrics, and meaning
03:00 – How Thi came to study games and philosophy
07:00 – What games are (and why they matter)
10:00 – Achievement vs striving play
13:00 – Cheating and misunderstanding the point of games
16:00 – Games, struggle, and meaningful activity
18:00 – Cooking, recipes, and rules
22:00 – Metrics as simplified rule systems
25:00 – Value capture and how metrics reshape goals
29:00 – Why institutions rely on measurement
32:00 – Quantification and loss of context
36:00 – Rules, algorithms, and expertise
40:00 – Standardisation and the cost of consistency
43:00 – Transparency, trust, and unintended consequences
47:00 – Metrics and the loss of expert judgment
50:00 – Ungrading and the limits of removing metrics
54:00 – Designing better scoring systems
58:00 – Gamification and why it misses the point
01:02:00 – Choosing your own game
01:06:00 – Final reflections and closing

Relevant Links

Thi’s personal website – https://objectionable.net/
His faculty page - https://profiles.faculty.utah.edu/u6021584
The Score: How to Stop Playing Someone Else’s Game - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/457380/the-score-by-nguyen-c-thi/9780241653975
Thi on Bluesky – https://bsky.app/profile/add-hawk.bsky.social

We tend to assume that if we’re working hard, we’re working well. But what if that isn’t true?

Episode Summary
My guest on this episode is Phil Dobson, author of The Brain Book and founder of Brain Workshops, about what he calls 'cognitive leadership': using neuroscience and psychology to help people sustain performance, think more clearly, and navigate uncertainty. Phil explains how a broken ankle led him from music and sales into hypnotherapy, neuroscience, and leadership development, and why he believes most of us are never properly taught how our brains actually work.

In a wide-ranging discussion, we explore the difference between productivity and effectiveness, why attention may be our most valuable asset, and how modern working life often undermines flow, creativity, and good decision-making. We also discuss stress, workload, digital distraction, the limits of measurement, and what organisations get wrong when they try to manage people as if more time always equals more value.

Discover how leaders can create better conditions for thinking, resilience, creativity, and change; and why understanding the human brain matters far beyond the workplace.

Episode Summaruy
why most of us are taught far too little about how our brains work
Phil’s unusual route from musician to hypnotherapist to neuroscience-based leadership adviser
the difference between being productive and being effective
why self-employment sharpened Phil’s focus on impact rather than activity
how experimentation, iteration, and reflection shape better ways of working
the distinction between fun and fulfilment
flow states and why modern life makes them harder to access
the growing importance of attention in a world of distraction
why stress management has to include workload management, not just breathing techniques
how rest, breaks, and so-called “unproductive” time often drive insight and creativity
why measuring people too narrowly can damage performance
how understanding the brain helps leaders navigate change and uncertainty
why improving human decision-making matters not just for performance, but for reducing costly mistakes
AI-Generated Timestamped Summary
00:00 — Introduction: busyness vs effectiveness
02:00 — Phil’s journey into cognitive leadership
07:00 — Productivity vs effectiveness (and the 80/20 shift)
12:00 — Experimentation, habits, and fulfilment
17:00 — Flow, focus, and attention under pressure
22:00 — Attention as a critical (and under threat) asset
27:00 — Why knowing isn’t the same as doing
31:00 — Rethinking productivity: energy, creativity, and insight
36:00 — The neuroscience of better thinking (default mode network)
40:00 — Measurement, management, and leadership challenges
45:00 — Human performance beyond the workplace
50:00 — Human error, decision-making, and risk
55:00 — Evolving work: shorter weeks and smarter working
58:00 — Leading change with a brain-based approach
01:03:00 — Final reflections and closing

Relevant Links
Phil's website - https://phildobson.com/

Brain Workshops - https://brainworkshops.co.uk/

Phil on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/brainworkshops/

The Brain Book - https://www.amazon.com/Brain-Book-Smarter-Concise-Advice/dp/1910649732

What lessons does a religious protest that led to an uprising  in 1549 have to do with human risk?

At first glance, not very much. It’s easy to see it as a distant historical event — something about religion, kings, and a very different world. But as my guest, Professor Mark Stoyle explains, the Western Rising of 1549 is far more than that. It’s a powerful example of what happens when authority imposes change without understanding how people will react. 

Episode Summary
This episode started on a train journey to Exeter, where I was due to give a talk. Looking for a local story to make my presentation more relevant, I stumbled across a battle that had taken place just outside the venue in 1549. The more I read, the clearer it became that this wasn’t just history, it was a case study in compliance, behaviour, and unintended consequences.

Guest Profile
Mark is a historian and leading expert on what he calls the Western Rising of 1549. In this conversation, we explore how sweeping religious changes imposed by those in power triggered resistance, how small incidents escalated into a major rebellion, and why identity, belief, and emotion played such a critical role. Along the way, we discuss how history is written (and biased), why changing language can provoke outrage rather than acceptance, and what this story reveals about leadership, risk, and human behaviour today.

AI-Generated Timestamped Summary
00:00 – Introduction: a compliance failure in 1549
01:00 – The train journey to Exeter
02:00 – Discovering the rebellion
04:00 – Why this is a human risk story
05:15 – Introducing Professor Mark Stoyle
07:30 – Setting the historical context
10:00 – Power, authority, and instability
13:30 – What triggered the rising
17:00 – Why language change caused outrage
22:00 – Early resistance and local incidents
25:00 – The tipping point: violence begins
29:00 – How the rebellion spreads
33:00 – The siege of Exeter
37:00 – How history is written by the victors
41:00 – Crushing the rebellion
45:00 – Cultural consequences and language loss
48:00 – Lessons for today
52:00 – Polarisation and modern parallels
57:00 – Final reflections In this episode we discuss

Key Topics
Why imposed change can trigger resistance
How small incidents escalate into major crises
The role of identity, belief, and emotion in decision-making
Why language and culture matter in compliance
How authority can misjudge human behaviour
The dangers of polarisation and “us vs them” thinking
Why compromise becomes impossible in extreme positions
How history is shaped by those who win
The unintended consequences of leadership decisions
What a 16th-century rebellion teaches us about modern risk
Guest Profile
Mark Stoyle is Professor of History at the University of Southampton. He specialises in Tudor rebellions, the English Civil War, and the history of witchcraft. Originally from Devon, his work on the Western Rising of 1549 draws on decades of research and a deep personal connection to the region where these events took place.

Links
The Western Rising of 1549, Mark's book - https://yalebooks.co.uk/book/9780300276886/the-western-rising-of-1549/

Mark's University of Southampton profile page - https://www.southampton.ac.uk/people/5wyxqy/professor-mark-stoyle

Mark's publisher profile: - https://www.worldturnedupsidedown.co.uk/team/mark-stoyle/

What exactly is a sign?  At first glance, that might sound like a strange question. Signs are everywhere: telling us where to go, what to do, what not to do, and sometimes what might happen if we ignore instructions. But as my guest, Jeffrey Ludlow Saentz explains, signs are much more than bits of information on walls or beside roads.

Episode Summary
Jeffrey is a signage designer who works on complex buildings and environments around the world — airports, offices, museums, and other places where helping people find their way really matters. He’s also the author of A Sign Is..., a fascinating book exploring the history, meaning, and cultural significance of the signs that shape our everyday behaviour.

In this conversation, we explore why good signage is often invisible, how buildings “speak” to us through wayfinding systems, and what signs reveal about power, trust, and human behaviour. Along the way we discuss hacked traffic signs, casino design, airport navigation, and why something as simple as an arrow carries centuries of history.

AI-Generated Timestamped Summary
00:00 – Introduction: why signs are more interesting than they first appear
03:00 – How Jeffrey became a signage designer
04:00 – The challenge of helping people navigate complex buildings
07:00 – What actually is a sign?
09:00 – Why “everything can be a sign”
11:00 – The power dynamics behind signage and authority
13:00 – How designers observe signage in the real world
14:30 – Cultural differences in wayfinding and navigation
19:30 – Why Jeffrey wrote A Sign Is..
22:00 – The fascinating history of fire safety signage
24:00 – Curiosity and the stories hidden behind everyday signs
27:00 – Hacked construction signs and unexpected messages
31:00 – Trust, authority, and information on signs
35:00 – Advertising, nudging, and attention
36:00 – Information overload and competing signals
39:00 – The learned language of signs and symbols
41:00 – Why good signage is “invisible” when it works
43:00 – Airports, trust, and wayfinding design
46:00 – How people become signage designers
47:30 – How casinos, airports, and museums use signs differently
50:00 – The psychology of navigation
54:00 – Why signage can’t work perfectly for everyone
57:00 – Why wayfinding is an art rather than a science
01:02:00 – Jeffrey’s book A Sign Is and where to find it
01:04:00 – What signs might look like in the future In this episode we discuss

Key Topics
Why signage is a form of behavioural communication
How buildings “talk” to people through wayfinding systems
The psychology of navigation and spatial awareness
Why good signage is invisible
How casinos deliberately make navigation harder
Why museums minimise signs while airports maximise them
The cultural differences in how places are navigated
What hacked traffic signs reveal about trust in authority
Why signs act as nudges that shape behaviour
The limits of signage when designing for large groups
How digital navigation may change our relationship with physical signs
About Jeffrey
Jeffrey Ludlow is a signage and wayfinding designer and founder of Point of Reference Studio, a design practice specialising in signage systems, environmental graphics, and branding for public environments. Trained as an architect, Jeffrey’s work sits at the intersection of architecture, graphic design, and behavioural psychology — helping people navigate complex spaces more intuitively. He is the author of A Sign Is, a book exploring the cultural, historical, and behavioural significance of the signs that surround us.

Links
Jeffrey's book 'A Sign Is...' - https://oroeditions.com/product/a-sign-is

Point of Reference, the Madrid-based studio Jeffrey founded - https://pointofreference.studio/