The Human Risk Podcast

What happens when someone who spends his life thinking about risk, decision-making and human behaviour is confronted with an uncertainty he simply can’t control?

Episode summary
My guest is Paul Craven, a behavioural scientist, former investment professional, magician and keynote speaker, and one of my favourite people to talk to. When we sat down to record this episode, I noticed that Paul’s voice sounded different.

His explanation — that he had recently been diagnosed with oral cancer — took our conversation in an unexpected and deeply personal direction.We explore what his experience has taught him about uncertainty, why he deliberately chose not to Google his diagnosis, and the difference between having information and having useful information.

From there, we explore luck and skill, decision and gratitude journals, relationships versus transactions, the dangers of binary thinking, and why sometimes the best thing you can do when you’re in a bad mood is go for a walk in the rain. It’s a conversation about behavioural science, but also about perspective, paying attention and what we discover about ourselves when life doesn’t go according to plan.

Key themes
Living with uncertainty and the psychological value of having a plan
Why more information isn’t always better information
AI, search engines and our desire for certainty
Nuance versus binary thinking
Luck, skill and decision journals
Gratitude and paying attention to what matters
Relationships versus transactions
Storytelling, lived experience and different ways of seeing the world
Chameleon Thinking and the value of changing perspective
Guest Profile - Paul Craven
Paul is a behavioural scientist, keynote speaker and former investment professional who brings together insights from psychology, behavioural science, finance and magic to explore how people really think and make decisions.

Links
Paul Craven — speaker profile and booking enquiries
Paul Craven’s website
Iain McGilchrist
Martin Shaw
Mark Vernon
Paul’s previous appearances on the Human Risk Podcast
Solo: Paul Craven on Magic, Money & The Mind

With Gerald Ashley: Gerald Ashley & Paul Craven on Statistics, Spreadsheets & Scam Artistsand Paul Craven & Gerald Ashley on Context, Consequences & Changeability

With Rory Sutherland: Rory Sutherland & Paul Craven on Alchemy & Magic and Paul Craven & Rory Sutherland on Magic & Alchemy

With Rory Sutherland & Gerald Ashley at Abbey Road

Timestamped summary
00:00 — Introduction

01:35 — Paul’s diagnosis and living with uncertainty
Paul reveals his cancer diagnosis and reflects on why not knowing can sometimes be harder than receiving difficult news.

07:00 — Medicine, empathy and different perspectives
What Paul’s experience of the NHS taught him about communication, multidisciplinary thinking and the importance of context.

10:00 — Appreciating life, stories and walking in the rain
From Iain McGilchrist and Martin Shaw to Rowan Williams’ wonderfully simple advice for dealing with a bad mood.

17:10 — Reframing, Chameleon Thinking and “All shall be well”
Why changing perspective can help us navigate difficult circumstances — including Paul’s own illness.

25:45 — Why Paul chose not to Google his cancer
The risks of searching without context, what AI adds to the problem, and why life rarely provides simple binary answers.

31:20 — Luck, skill and keeping journals
What investment management can teach us about hindsight, decision quality and the value of both decision and gratitude journals.

37:20 — Relationships, transactions and the limits of efficiency
Why trust and relationships matter, and what can be lost when we optimise purely for efficiency.

43:25 — Authenticity, AI and Chesterton’s Fence
The value of individuality in an AI-mediated world and why we should understand what we’re discarding before we replace it.

47:10 — Wisdom under every rock
Paul brings together the themes of reframing, curiosity and learning from different perspectives.

49:10 — An update on Paul
Christian shares encouraging news following Paul’s surgery and looks forward to welcoming him back to the show.

Why do we rate everything and why do we do so on a scale of one to five stars? What happens when systems designed to help us make better choices start influencing our behaviour in ways we don’t necessarily notice?

Episode Summary
My guest is Benji Wilson, a journalist, TV critic and author of Rate This Book. Benji’s day job involves rating other people’s work, but when his children pointed out that Rotten Tomatoes was also rating him, it prompted him to investigate the ratings culture that surrounds us. In our conversation, we explore where ratings came from, why the five-star system became dominant and the psychology that makes us pay attention to the opinions of people we’ve never met.

We discuss social proof and the wisdom of crowds, why we often use ratings to avoid making bad decisions rather than to identify the very best option, and what happens when reviews are fake, manipulated or simply unfair.

We also explore the consequences of moving from rating products and services to rating people, including Uber drivers, hospitality workers and doctors, and why a single negative review can have significant consequences.Benji also explains how ratings might have applications in places we wouldn’t necessarily expect, including workplace appraisals and even democracy, where alternative voting systems use ratings to allow people to express more nuanced preferences.

And, appropriately for someone who has written a book called Rate This Book, we discuss what it feels like when the ratings are turned back on you — including why an anonymous three-star review might actually be more useful than a perfect five-star score.

Guest Profile
Benji is a journalist, author and TV critic. His book, Rate This Book, explores how ratings and reviews came to dominate modern life, the psychology that makes them work and what happens when the systems designed to help us make choices begin shaping those choices themselves.

Links
Benji's website — more about Benji and his work.
Rate This Book — How Star Ratings Took Over the World, published by New Modern Arcade.
Rate This Book audiobook — read by Benji Wilson.
AI-Generated Timestamped Summary

00:00 — Introduction: why we rate everything
01:45 — Benji’s life as a TV critic and discovering that Rotten Tomatoes was also rating him.
03:30 — Where ratings came from, from our instinct to rank things to the emergence of star ratings.
08:30 — The psychology of ratings: prospect theory, avoiding bad decisions and why we rely on other people’s opinions.
10:15 — Why five stars became the dominant rating system.
16:00 — Experts versus crowds, social proof and why thousands of reviews can feel so persuasive.
20:00 — Fake reviews, manipulated ratings and why critical thinking still matters.
25:00 — What happens when we move from rating products to rating people — and the real-world consequences of negative reviews.
29:30 — Reputation management, review blackmail and whether ratings platforms need greater regulation.
33:30 — Ratings and democracy: could STAR voting offer a less binary way of choosing politicians?38:30 — Workplace appraisals, reciprocal ratings and what happens when a numerical score overwhelms everything else.
43:00 — Uber and how our relationship with rating systems changes over time.
44:30 — What it feels like to have Rate This Book rated — including Benji’s mysterious three-star review.
47:30 — Why three stars may be our most natural — and least useful — rating.
52:30 — How writing the book changed Benji’s own behaviour and why trusted personal recommendations can beat aggregated reviews.
56:30 — Why companies really want our ratings and the commercial incentives behind endless requests for feedback.
01:01:00 — Amazon Vine, gamification and how rating systems can influence the people doing the rating.
01:02:30 — Where to find Benji and Rate This Book, plus the inevitable invitation to rate both the book and the podcast.

What parts of yourself have you learned to hide in order to be taken seriously? My guest on this episode is Mark Heywood, a friend of the show, returning guest and someone I've collaborated with on a number of projects.

Episode Summary & Guest Profile
Mark has spent more than twenty years working in crisis management and operational resilience, while simultaneously building a successful career as a bestselling novelist, screenwriter and, more recently, stand-up comedian.

On the morning we recorded this conversation, Mark published an article marking his fifty-first birthday. In it, he reflected on the pressure many of us feel to present only one version of ourselves professionally, arguing that his creative and corporate lives were never really separate.

As he puts it, they were 'not two jobs, but one obsession wearing two different lanyards.' That simple idea becomes the starting point for a much wider discussion about the stories we tell ourselves, and the stories organisations tell themselves.

Along the way we explore:
Why "stay in your lane" may say more about other people's expectations than your own potential.
Why organisations often encourage people to bring their whole selves to work, while rewarding conformity.
What interviews, dress codes and organisational culture reveal about human behaviour.
Why stories often influence behaviour more effectively than rules, policies and frameworks.
What films can teach us about operational resilience, cybersecurity and crisis management.
Why the Titanic remains one of the most powerful lessons in organisational failure.
How imagination is a strategic capability rather than a soft skill.
Why thinking through "severe but plausible" scenarios requires organisations to become better storytellers.
Links
Mark's birthday article: "A Birthday Declaration from Someone Who Spent Over Twenty Years Pretending to Be Half of Himself" (LinkedIn)

Mark's Behind The Spine podcast

The Writing Salon

Behind The Spine podcast

Mark on LinkedIn

Mark's previous appearances on the show talking about The Creative Industries under COVID, and Human Risk in the Creative Industries

Films, Stories & People MentionedDie Hard  
Apollo 13 
The Martian 
The Odyssey (Christopher Nolan)
Don't Look Up
Snakes on a Plane 
Sharknado 
Noah's Ark 
RMS Titanic
Rachel Heyhoe Flint 
Jeremy King 

AI-Generated Timestamped Summary
00:00 – Why do we hide parts of ourselves to be taken seriously?

03:40 – Mark explains why he stopped separating his creative and corporate identities.

08:00 – Which hobbies and outside interests are considered professionally acceptable—and why?

10:30 – Job interviews, authenticity and bringing your whole self to work.

16:00 – Jeremy King on why behaviour matters more than dress codes.

19:00 – Rachel Heyhoe Flint, the MCC and what institutional rules reveal about culture.

23:00 – Why stories influence behaviour more effectively than rules.

24:00 – The Trojan Horse and using films to teach cybersecurity and resilience.

29:00 – The Titanic as a lesson in organisational resilience rather than maritime history.

32:00 – Conduct versus outcomes: why testing matters more than compliance.

36:00 – Using stories and popular culture to make risk real.

38:00 – Noah's Ark, history and the enduring power of storytelling.

40:30 – CrowdStrike, PPE and why organisations keep repeating the same mistakes.

46:00 – Stories aren't predictions—they're a way of exploring possibility.

49:00 – A ransomware exercise and the danger of relying on fixed policies.

52:00 – Returning to the Titanic: preparing for the inquiry before the crisis.

55:00 – Thinking like an attacker and challenging assumptions about cyber risk.

58:00 – Taylor Swift, insurance and why seemingly ordinary data can become highly sensitive.

1:02:00 – The idea of "risk inflation" and why yesterday's rules aren't enough.

1:10:00 – Why memorable stories change behaviour more effectively than realistic scenarios.

1:15:00 – Reverse stress testing and imagining what could really break an organisation.

1:20:00 – RAG ratings, reporting and the danger of looking resilient instead of being resilient.

1:23:00 – Final reflections on creativity, identity and why being more than one thing is a strength.

When something goes badly wrong, we investigate it. Reports are written. Recommendations are made. Lessons are identified. But do we actually learn them?

Episode Summary
Returning to the show, Gill Kernick joins me to discuss the substantially revised second edition of her book about the Grenfell Tower disaster, following the publication of the Grenfell Inquiry's final report. Gill has a unique perspective on Grenfell. She lived on the 21st floor of the tower before moving out three years before the fire. Professionally, she has spent decades helping organisations in high-hazard industries understand leadership, safety and major accidents.

When Gill first appeared on the podcast, the Inquiry was still underway. Seven years later, its conclusions have revealed an even more disturbing picture—not of one catastrophic mistake, but of systemic failure involving government, regulators, manufacturers, certification bodies and the construction industry.

But this episode isn't just about Grenfell. It's about why organisations struggle to learn from failure, why compliance isn't the same as understanding, why we crave simple explanations for complex problems, and why genuine learning is much harder than writing another report. If you haven't already listened to Gill's previous appearances on the podcast, I'd strongly recommend doing so. Together, the conversations chart how understanding evolves as new evidence emerges.

What you'll learn In this episode
In a wide-ranging discussion, we explore:
Why Gill decided to write a second edition after the Grenfell Inquiry concluded
The shocking scale of the systemic failures uncovered by the Inquiry
Why disasters rarely have a single root cause
The hidden dangers of deregulation and "compliance theatre"
Why organisations identify lessons but rarely learn them
The importance of understanding the spirit—not just the letter—of regulation
Why complexity requires different kinds of leadership
How AI might help organisations learn lessons in real time
Why hope is, as Gill puts it, "an act of resistance"
AI-Generated.Timestamp Summary
00:00 – Do we really learn lessons from disasters?
02:45 – Gill's personal connection to Grenfell Tower
05:15 – Why the second edition became necessary after the Inquiry 
06:30 – The Inquiry's most shocking findings
10:00 – When regulators knew the risks—but failed to act
12:00 – Implicit trust and why we rely on systems we don't understand
13:00 – Deregulation and the unintended consequences of political narratives
17:00 – Compliance versus understanding the intent behind regulation
20:00 – Why regulations struggle to keep pace with technology and complexity
24:00 – Hope as an act of resistance 25:00 – Why we don't actually learn lessons 
27:00 – Is a seven-year inquiry too long?
33:00 – Why "post-Grenfell" reforms miss the real point
37:00 – Communities of grief and change 
39:00 – Why Gill rewrote the book instead of writing a new one
44:00 – How the experience changed Gill's own thinking 
50:00 – Speaking up in ways that actually get heard
53:30 – Practical advice for learning in complex systems
55:00 – "Lessons learning" instead of "lessons learned" 
59:00 – Final reflections

Links
Gill's website, The Grenfell Enquirer

Her book 'Catastrophe & Systemic Change'

Gill's LinkedIn: 

Her previous show appearancesGill Kernick on the Grenfell Tower Disaster — Part One
Gill Kernick on the Grenfell Tower Disaster — Part Two
Topics discussedGrenfell Tower Inquiry – Final Report
The Grenfell Enquirer (articles and resources)
Arup's Building Safety Change Framework
People and ideas mentionedDave Snowden (Cognitive Edge)
Cynefin Framework overview
Background incidents referencedPiper Alpha disaster (Encyclopaedia Britannica)
Lakanal House fire (Wikipedia)
Deepwater Horizon oil spill (Encyclopaedia Britannica)

What does jazz singing have to do with LinkedIn? More than you might think.

This week's guest, Anna Rössler, has built a career helping senior leaders find their voice online while simultaneously developing her own as a singer-songwriter. Rather than separating her professional and creative identities, Anna has found a way to bring them together, and in doing so offers some valuable lessons about authenticity, confidence and human connection. 

We explore why so much online content feels performative, how AI is changing the way we communicate, and why the best personal brands aren't really about branding at all. Along the way we discuss experimentation, creativity, stage fright, networking, and the importance of building a life around the things that genuinely energise you.

Whether you're trying to communicate more effectively at work, build a presence online, or simply find more balance between your career and your passions, there's plenty to take away from this conversation.

Episode Summary
On this episode, we discuss:
Why authenticity is more than simply 'being yourself.'
How personal branding is really about building trust.
Why social media should be treated as a conversation, not a broadcast.
The hidden metrics that matter more than likes and impressions.
How to use AI without losing your own voice.
Why experimentation beats chasing algorithms.
What performing music teaches us about confidence and communication.
How side passions can make us better professionals.
Why designing your environment is often more important than motivation.
The value of creating a life that gives you energy instead of draining it.
Guest Profile
Anna Rössler is a marketing and LinkedIn specialist who helps organisations and senior leaders communicate more effectively through content and personal branding. Alongside her marketing career, she's an accomplished jazz and pop vocalist, songwriter and performer.

Her work sits at the intersection of communication, creativity and authenticity, helping people find a voice that genuinely sounds like them—whether they're posting on LinkedIn or performing on stage.

Follow Anna on LinkedIn and on her personal website.