Bulwark Takes

With one week until Election Day, Bill Kristol and Andrew Egger break down the Senate races that could deliver Democrats a historic midterm wave. From James Talarico’s fight against Ken Paxton in Texas to surprising opportunities in Mississippi, Kansas, and Florida, they examine how Trump’s unpopularity, rising prices, and Elon Musk’s spending are reshaping the map. 
Plus, how Trump’s latest attempt to prosecute James Comey exposes the importance of independent courts and why control of the Senate could be the most consequential prize of the election.
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Will Saletan uses Trump's own words to expose the contradictions behind the Iran war. Trump says he obliterated Iran's nuclear program, claims the threat is under control, and admits the U.S. could leave now. So why is the war still going eight months later? Trump says he wants a guarantee Iran will never build a nuclear weapon, but he also admits he may have gone too far in killing the country's leaders and doesn't know who to negotiate with. Meanwhile, gas prices are rising, Trump is bragging about the money high oil prices are bringing in, and he says the financial pain Americans are facing is a small price to pay. For Trump voters unhappy with the economy and the war, Will makes the case that the midterms are a chance to send a message.
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Show Notes:
Trump rally in South Carolina, Oct. 21: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNmr6SyjoAo
Trump rally in Florida, Oct. 23: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMD0ffRom7M
Trump interview with NBC Montana, Oct.14: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLcKKXgngVk
Trump rally in Arizona, Oct. 14: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wf36VMa0rDE
Trump rally in Alabama, Oct. 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZCcFK6y9fA
Trump rally in Oklahoma, Oct. 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zYR9nIuvDs
Trump rally in Kansas, Oct.19: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gpvsst07C28
Trump gaggle at the White House, Oct. 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlYbzF9hSBE
Trump interview with Newsmax, Oct. 15: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvwQankQR-8
Trump gaggle at Joint Base Andrews, Oct. 10: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MWwc6p33yM
Trump rally in Georgia, Oct. 24: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2vfPUbdZsg
Trump rally in Michigan, Oct. 25: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkM_CFtIDUs
Trump Q&A in the Oval Office, Oct. 20: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQKChHxD9e8

Sam Stein and Will Sommer break down Donald Trump’s 1,300-word meltdown over Bill Maher. Plus, MAGA data guru Data Republican is so worried about the GOP’s early voting numbers that she won’t share them with her followers, right-wing influencers scramble to spin election results in Serbia and Brazil, and a pro-ICE conservative is now set to be deported. Also, Newsmax’s new Trump nostalgia show serves up recycled clips and calls them “epic.”
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Mike Rogers’s disastrous Meet the Press interview was a masterclass in political desperation. Catherine Rampell and Jonathan Cohn break down his increasingly absurd attempts to dodge questions about Trump, his contortions over tariffs hurting Michigan, and his ugly attacks on Democratic opponent Abdul El-Sayed.

Could Democrats really flip Senate seats in deep-red states like Mississippi, South Carolina, and Florida? Bill Kristol and Lauren Egan examine the expanding Senate map, surprising opportunities, and whether Democratic optimism is getting ahead of reality.