Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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Southern Africa's grain production rebounds
The Southern Africa region is far better regarding food supplies today than a year ago. For example, Zambia's 2024-25 maize crop has bounced back. The government forecasts the harvest to be 3,66 million tonnes, up from 1,5 million tonnes the previous season. This is because of favourable weather conditions and the decent area plantings. The harvest is underway in the country, and the message we are hearing about the quality of the crop remains encouraging. This also means Zambia could return to being a net exporter of maize as its domestic maize consumption is about 2,8 million tonnes, far surpassed by the expected harvest of 3,66 million tonnes. Importantly, one can expect the domestic maize prices to continue moderating as the harvest continues, thus easing the general food price inflation. Zambia is also not the only fortunate country in the Southern Africa region. The entire region received better rains, even excessive rains in some areas. We continue to hear encouraging news of the better grain harvest in Zimbabwe. For example, Zimbabwean farmers likely planted 1.7 million hectares of maize this year, slightly lower than last year but decent. We will know more about the yields in the coming weeks and months. What is clear at the moment is that Zimbabwe will, too, have a better maize harvest compared to the 2023-24 drought year. The South African story is even more optimistic. For example, South Africa's 2024-25 maize harvest is forecast at 14,66 million tonnes. There is an increase in white and yellow maize, with harvests now at 7,75 million tonnes and 6,91 million tonnes, respectively. Overall, the maize harvest of 14,66 million tonnes is up 14% year-on-year, primarily benefiting from expected yield improvements on an annual basis. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa's yearly maize needs of about 11,8 million tonnes, which implies that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize. The 2024-25 season is a positive change for Southern Africa's staple crop, maize. Importantly, it is encouraging to see Zambia bounce back. This country is vital in maize supplies to the region as the second largest producer after South Africa. Listen to the podcast for more insights. Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website
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12:05
South African farms are not under siege
One of the themes that dominated the White House Press session this evening was agriculture – the idea that the farming sector in South Africa is under siege and people are running away. But this could be no further than reality. The South African farming sector or farming community is not under siege. And yes, the country has devastating crime incidents, which should remain a major worry for all. However, it is necessary to state that there is no land expropriation without compensation in the country, that the recent Expropriation Act has been massively misrepresented, and that property rights remain intact. Land Reform is still under the market principles of the willing buyer-willing seller. The agricultural sector, which some have portrayed as a victim, has actually made enormous progress over time, contributing significantly to the country's overall economic growth. The sector has more than doubled in value and volume terms since 1994. This expansion was broadly shared across all major subsectors of the South African farming economy, including horticulture, field crops, and livestock. South Africa has seen growth in its agricultural exports over time, reaching a record US$13,7 billion in 2024. South Africa is now ranked the world's 32nd largest agricultural exporter, the only African country in the top 40 in terms of value. Listen to the podcast for more insights. Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website
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12:41
South Africa cushioned the southern Africa region from a maize supply crisis
At the end of April, we completed South Africa's 2024-25 marketing year for maize. This marketing year corresponds with the 2023-24 production season, which was challenged by the mid-summer drought and led to the 22% decline in South Africa’s maize harvest to 12,85 million tonnes. The big help in that season came from the gains of the previous ones. For example, the season started with 2,40 million tonnes of opening/carryover stocks from the past season, ultimately boosting the available maize supplies in the country. This added to the harvest of 12,85 million tonnes. These overall maize supplies were against the domestic needs of 11,6 million tonnes, leaving the country with substantial maize for exports. The available exports were of great help to the southern Africa region, which was severely hit by the drought. For example, Zimbabwe lost 60% of their maize crop, Zambia lost half of its crop, and other neighbouring countries experienced significant losses. This meant that there was increased reliance on South Africa. Thankfully, South Africa was better placed to help export more maize. At the end of the 2024-25 marketing year in April 2025, South Africa had exported 2,2 million tonnes, substantially well above the long-term average levels. About 66% of these exports were white maize and 34% were yellow maize. Several countries benefited from these exports, especially in southern Africa. But no country benefited more than Zimbabwe, which accounted for 57% of South Africa's maize exports between May 2024 and April 2025, or about 1.3 million tonnes of white and yellow maize. South Africa was exporting to the southern African region, so it had to import to supplement supplies, mainly in the coastal areas. However, another factor behind the increase in imports was the price competitiveness of imports. South Africa ended the 2024-25 season with 938,116 tonnes of maize imports, which mainly originated in Argentina, Brazil, and the United States. Still, when one accounts for these imports and exports of 2.2 million tonnes, it remains clear that South Africa was a net exporter of maize in the 2024-25 season. South Africa did not experience a massive decline in maize production as its neighbouring countries did, in part, because of the improved seed cultivars and arguably better farming methods. Listen to the podcast for more insights. Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website
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13:18
The excellent wine grapes harvest of 2025 signifies the recovery in SA agriculture generally
We have been saying for some time that 2025 will be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture, mainly highlighting the gains in grains, soybeans, and horticulture yields. But I was particularly pleased on May 8, when I received a report from South Africa Wine (SA Wine) indicating that we will have an excellent harvest in 2025. SA Wine and Vinpro forecasts South Africa’s wine grapes harvest to be 1.244 million tonnes, an 11% recovery from the exceptionally poor harvest in 2024. Importantly, the quality promises are also to be excellent. With the harvest like this, our preoccupation for the coming months will continue to be the export markets and logistics. Indeed, the US market has dominated the trade conversation in recent weeks. However, long before the Trump tariffs, the South African wine industry and the entire agricultural sector had been focused on expanding export markets beyond the existing ones. South Africa’s agricultural sector is export-oriented, with exports reaching a record US$13,7 billion in 2024, up 3% from the previous year, according to data from Trade Map. This reflects both an increase in the volume of agricultural exports and higher prices of some products. The top exported products by value include citrus, grapes, maize, apples and pears, wine, nuts, fruit juices, sugar, berries, dates, pineapples, avocados, wool, apricots and peaches, ciders, and beef. The focus on broadening export markets becomes even more urgent as we continue to see better quality and volumes in wine and other agricultural product output. One of the primary areas we focus on is China, which has a large population and buying power. China accounts for 11% of global agricultural imports. However, the South African agricultural sector, specifically the wine industry, faces some constraints. For example, we face tariffs of 14% in wine exports in China, while our competitors, such as Australia, face 0% duties as they have a trade agreement with China. We have been vocal about such issues for some time. Now, the environment is even more urgent and appropriate to open these new markets, as China also looks to increase its agricultural trade with South Africa. Listen to the podcast for more insights. Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website
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12:13
South Africa expects an ample grain harvest this year
On April 30, we had essential data on South Africa's agriculture. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its third production forecast for South Africa's 2024-25 summer crop production season. There are seven more monthly estimates to come. But on the third estimate, we begin to have some comfort about the accuracy of the data. At a time when we have been worrying about the excessive rains, there was predictably a lot more attention on these figures. Notably, the CEC slightly increased South Africa's 2024-25 summer crop production estimate by 0.05% from March 2025 to 18.01 million tonnes. Indeed, this is a mild uptick, but it remains crucial at a time when some worried that we might see a downward revision of the crop due to the excessive rains. This estimate comprises yellow and white maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. In essence, this harvest estimate is 16% higher than the 2023-24 production season, representing a decent recovery from the drought season Listen to the podcast for more insights. Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website
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11:11