Similar to the improvement in maize production witnessed in South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and other countries in the Southern African region, Kenya's maize crop has also shown signs of recovery. The latest estimate by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) places the country's harvest at 4.4 million tonnes. This is up 15% from the previous season due to both the expansion in area plantings and improved yields. Consequently, imports are expected to decline by 17% to 250,000 tonnes in the 2025-26 marketing year. The typical maize suppliers to Kenya in times of need include Tanzania and Uganda. It is likely that when domestic supplies have lessened, Kenya will still rely on these countries to supplement its domestic supplies.
South African maize exporters are unlikely to participate in the Kenyan market due to the country's reduced annual maize needs and its long-standing ban on imports of genetically modified crops. Over 80% of South Africa's maize is genetically modified, which is typically used as a non-tariff barrier by various African countries. Still, South Africa's maize exports are likely to focus on the neighbouring SACU countries, including Zimbabwe, and the Far East markets in the coming months. The East African region is unlikely to be a primary focus for many domestic maize exporters.
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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website
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11:06
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11:06
South Africa's food price inflation eases
We see a constructive picture of South Africa's food price inflation, easing at 5.2% in August 2025, from 5.5% in the previous months. South Africa has an abundant harvest of grains, fruits, and various vegetables, and the benefits of this are starting to show in prices. It is these products that were the major drivers of the moderation in price inflation.
A key product that many are watching is meat, particularly beef (and red meat products), which has remained elevated, although slaughtering has resumed in major feedlots across the country. The issue is that South Africa is experiencing a foot and mouth disease outbreak.
Initially, the panic buying, not necessarily a shortage of product, was the main driver of meat prices. This is when the country's largest feedlot announced the cases in its facility. This led to concerns about red meat supplies and some panic buying, thus pushing up prices. The slaughtering has now resumed in the major feedlots, although foot and mouth remains a profound challenge in the country.
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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website
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10:44
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10:44
South African farmers will start planting summer crops in October, and the outlook is encouraging
Next month, October, we will start our 2025-26 summer grains and oilseed production season in South Africa. The outlook for the season looks optimistic with prospects of rain, which will benefit not only crops but the overall agricultural sector.
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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website
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5:10
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5:10
South Africa’s agricultural sector will likely see a mixed recover in 2025, with livestock experiencing challenges
South Africa's agricultural sector is in its recovery phase, and the second quarter of 2025 figures signal the improvement, albeit mildly. The country's agricultural gross value added expanded by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the second quarter. This follows the 18.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of the year. The expansion was primarily due to the improved performance of certain field crops and the horticulture subsectors.
As the close observers of the sector know, the quarterly data tend to be somewhat volatile, influenced by times of harvest and crop deliveries, amongst other factors. It is particularly such issues that the second-quarter growth figure was much softer compared to the start of the year.
We experienced a delay in our summer grain harvest, with more momentum occurring at the start of the third quarter than is typically seen in the second quarter of the year. Indeed, we have ample summer grain and oilseeds, estimated at 19.55 million tonnes (up 26% year-on-year). But the season was late by roughly a month and a half because of the excessively prolonged summer rains, amongst other factors.
We have also continued to struggle with the foot and mouth disease and a few avian influenza cases, particularly in the second quarter. It was at the end of the second quarter that the foot and mouth disease vaccines arrived in South Africa for the start of the vaccination campaign.
But of course, not all crops were late. The citrus harvest season started in the second quarter, and we have an ample harvest. Farmers moved quickly to take advantage of the tariff pause window in the U.S., which allows for faster harvesting and adds to the general upside in the second quarter performance, although much softer than the start of the year.
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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website
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11:37
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11:37
South Africa's agricultural machinery sales remain strong
One of the interlinked industries that tends to benefit when the agricultural sector is thriving is the agricultural machinery industry. This year is no different; South Africa's agricultural machinery sales have remained reasonably robust since the start of 2025. I suspect the sales are likely to continue at this encouraging pace.
If we consider the details, the tractor sales have increased for the past eight consecutive months, while the combine harvester sales only cooled in the recent few months, having started on solid momentum.
The recent data for August also paints a mixed picture. For example, the tractor sales are up 22% y/y, with 700 units sold. Meanwhile, the combine harvester sales were flat, with five units sold. The soft sales in combine harvester sales are not a significant concern given the higher volume of sales in the past few months.
The increase in agricultural machinery sales primarily reflects the positive sentiment in the sector regarding the 2024-25 field crop, horticulture, and wine grape harvest, supported by the favourable weather conditions. The sentiment in the sector is also reasonably optimistic, with the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index at 63 points in the third quarter, which is well above the 50-neutral mark.
We expect South Africa's agricultural machinery to remain strong throughout the year. In addition to the better agricultural production conditions, the interest rates have eased somewhat from last year's levels.
Also worth noting is that some farmers may continue with machinery replacement in the coming months, which ultimately supports the sales.
Ultimately, the machinery industry is benefiting from the positive agricultural conditions in South Africa.
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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website
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