Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

I am in Pretoria, and we obviously don’t have snowfall here. But I am following the snowfall issue in parts of the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and the Free State, amongst other regions of South Africa.

From an agricultural perspective, I am more concerned about its impact on livestock – cattle, sheep, and goats. This is where harsh weather conditions would cause challenges, especially regarding feed supplies to sustain the animals.



Indeed, we haven’t heard widespread concerns, but looking at the photos circulating online, it is fair to assume that if conditions remain this way for a few days, we will start hearing reports of challenges. Already, smallholder farmers who lack feed will likely face challenges now.

Regarding crops, we are in the off-season for summer grain and oilseed. The planting will only start from mid-October. So, there is minimal challenge, and the snow will help improve soil moisture.

We must also not forget logistics – particularly for dairy farmers who must move products out of facilities regularly. This is likely a challenge in the Midlands regions of KwaZulu-Natal and for other farming entities in this region.

In essence, I can't give a view on the actual impact of this on agriculture so far. But we are following various updates from our friends on the ground. Wandile Sihlobo website

Employment conditions in the South African farming sector remain robust, well above long-term average levels. And this is an important issue to emphasise, as I have noted recently, as headlines suggest that farmers are struggling to find workers in this sector since the intensification of the immigration discourse in South Africa.

Indeed, if one looks at the data, in the second quarter of 2026, the farming sector saw a mild decline in employment. But this is broadly aligned with slowing seasonal farm activity, not necessarily other issues.

Still, the number of jobs remained at reasonably better levels. For example, the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for the second quarter of 2026, released on 11 August 2026 by Statistics South Africa, shows that the farming sector employed 944k people in the second quarter, down 2% quarter-on-quarter. But this is up by 4% from the same period last year, and well above the average of 799k jobs in this sector.

If we zoom in from a provincial perspective, most provinces experienced a mild employment decline from the first quarter of the year, except for the Northern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and Limpopo.

The annual uptick in employment (up 4% year-on-year) shows that we are generally in a year of agricultural abundance in fruits, vegetables, and various field crops, all of which are labour-intensive.

Listen to the podcast for more. Wandile Sihlobo website

The U.S. government has raised tariffs against several countries under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, on the Acts, Policies, and Practices of 60 Economies Related to the Failure of Each Economy to Impose and Effectively Enforce a Prohibition on the Importation of Goods Produced with Forced Labour[1]. The South African government, private sector, and organised agriculture made submissions to the U.S. authorities against this rise in tariffs. But that message and clarification didn't find a fertile ear.

 

•⁠ ⁠A rise in tariffs that South Africa faces in the U.S. from 10% to 12.5% is not ideal, but the agricultural sector could still do better given where we are coming from: a 30% tariff. Importantly, the US has raised tariffs for a range of countries, including some of South Africa's agricultural competitors, such as Australia, Peru, and Chile, which are also at these levels. Notably, oranges, fruit juices, and nuts are still exempt from these tariffs.

 

•⁠ ⁠The U.S. remains an important market for South Africa’s agriculture, accounting for about 4% of our agricultural exports of US$15.1 billion in 2025. The main exported products include citrus, berries, grapes, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots, and nuts. Wandile Sihlobo website

The figures released by Statistics South Africa this morning show that consumer food price inflation slowed to 1.4% in June 2026, from 1.6% in May. This is the lowest level since December 2010. Wandile Sihlobo website

The likely impact of the expected El Niño on South Africa’s agriculture and food prices in 2027 is a major point of discussion among analysts and economists in the country.

By mid-2026, weather forecasts were signalling that the world was heading towards a severe El Niño. The El Niño weather phenomenon tends to have varying impacts on the many regions of the world. For southern Africa, it typically presents drought, which is negative for agricultural production.

The arrival of the likely drought is due to coincide with South Africa’s 2026-27 summer crop season.

In my work as an agricultural economist and visiting various farming regions across South Africa, I believe that in examining the likely impact of this El Niño on crop production and, subsequently, on consumer food price inflation, two major factors need to be considered.

Listen to the podcast for more. Wandile Sihlobo website