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  • Gold’s probably hit 2025 high but don’t rule out Christmas rally, say gold strategists
    This audio is brought to you by Astec Industries, a Global Leader in manufacturing equipment for infrastructure, including asphalt production, construction, and material processing, driving innovation and sustainability. Even though there is consensus that gold has probably already hit its 2025 high point and is unlikely to go beyond the all-time-record it set in October when it breached the $4 300/oz mark, a Santa gold rally during the Christmas period and into year-end should not be ruled out. Also, while the incomplete reopening of US administration is encouraging, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) needs to return with key risk-assessment data required by the Federal Reserve as all eyes focus on December 10 when a further interest rate change could have implications for gold. Moreover, the indication of the US Supreme Court that tariff implementation is probably beyond executive office scope could also impact. These and several more points are made by World Gold Council senior market strategists John Reade and Joseph Cavatoni in their latest episode on gold market developments, gold price movements, the impact of political events in Washington, and year-end gold predictions. The World Gold Council's latest GoldHub also provides an update on China's gold market, where stability and growth are prevalent, and on India's peak Diwali and Dhanteras peak gold-buying occasions. Regarding China, World Gold Council research head in China Ray Jia reports that gold capped further gains in October, with wholesale gold demand defying seasonal patterns, rising to 124 t. Chinese gold exchange trade funds (ETFs) added 34 t worth at $4.5-billion last month, and gold futures volumes surged at the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The People's Bank of China, which has reported gold purchases 12 months in a row, added 0.9 t in October, lifting the total to 2 304 t, 8% of China's foreign exchange reserves and 24 t higher than at the end of 2024. Looking ahead, the recent Chinese gold market value-added tax (VAT) change is likely to put pressure on local gold jewellery demand as the sector is impacted by additional tax. But consumer sensitivity to price may also be lessening as the gold price has been rising steadily for more than three years now. The VAT change does not apply to gold bars sold by Shanghai Gold Exchange members, gold ETFs or gold accumulation plans, and there may be further room for growth in gold bar sales, as consumers may purchase them for jewellery making purposes, Jia adds. World Gold Council's Reade and Cavatoni also analyse the sentiment from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and London Platinum and Palladium Market Global Precious Metals Conference 2025 in Kyoto and the implications of upcoming economic data on gold prices, amid gold calming down from its $4 300/oz October breaching and correcting below $4 000/oz. "Gold now seems to have stabilised broadly around the $4 000/oz level," said Reade, based on conversations with participants at the LBMA conference in Kyoto, for example. "I think that seems to be the consensus that we've probably seen the highs of the year. Based on conversations on the US side, Cavatoni agreed and spoke of the US sentiment being the same - "pretty calm, pretty much interested in looking forward at the gold price and understanding that the short-term volatility is something to expect. Reade: I was speaking to a couple of hedge fund managers that I chat to from time to time, they expect the same. They think most of the work has been done in gold this year, but don't rule out a bit of a Santa rally into Christmas and into the end of the year, as fund managers want to establish positions that they can have for 2026 and also show their chief investment officers that, yes, they're the gold guy, and they are long gold. Never does any harm with that. Now, Santa rallying is something that comes through in equity markets, particularly in the US sometimes, so into the holiday season ...
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  • Rare earth yttrium’s price surge uplifts South Africa’s Phalaborwa economics
    This audio is brought to you by Astec Industries, a Global Leader in manufacturing equipment for infrastructure, including asphalt production, construction, and material processing, driving innovation and sustainability. The economics of South Africa's Phalaborwa rare earths project in Limpopo province has been uplifted very materially by the 3 000%-plus surge in the European prices of yttrium, a silvery white, moderately soft, ductile metal used in the aerospace, energy and semi-conductor industries, to name a few. Yttrium, as reported by Mining Weekly earlier this month, is now included in the Phalaborwa resource and the project is expected to produce 213 t yttrium oxide a year as part of the high-purity, mixed product, which already has neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium in its proposed samarium, europium, gadolinium (SEG+) product basket. SEG+ serves as a foundational material for downstream separation and refinement into high-purity rare earth products used in magnets for wind turbines and electronics.It is a mix of all the economically important medium and heavy rare earths. The Phalaborwa project, which is expected to produce 213 t yttrium oxide a year as part of the high-purity, mixed SEG+ product, is turning out to be very distinctive in that it hosts commercial quantities of the full gamut of economically important rare earths. Its medium and heavy rare earth elements (REEs) are enhancing the outlook for the earnings before income taxation depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) of the London-listed Rainbow Rare Earths. "This price increase positively impacts annual estimated Ebitda for Phalaborwa as there will be no extra cost to produce it as part of our proposed SEG+ product," Rainbow Rare Earths CEO George Bennett commented. Inclusion of yttrium in Phalaborwa's SEG+ mixed rare earth product could add $30-million to the project's annual estimated Ebitda at the lower range of the European price, based on a conservative SEG+ payability of 70%. The price of yttrium oxide 99.999% cost, insurance, freight - CIF - Europe started the year, according to Argus Media data, at about $6/kg. It has since risen to between $220/kg and $320/kg, the large spread the result of differing pricing contracts. Shortfalls have emphasised how extensively yttrium is used across civilian high-technology and defence applications. Phalaborwa is a near-term and low-capital intensity source of all the economically and strategically important rare earths, with prices expected to stay elevated. The project is one of the world's most resilient rare earths projects at a time when these elements are in growing demand for use in permanent magnets to help the world go green. Involved is the first commercial recovery of REEs from phosphogypsum, which makes project developer Rainbow Rare Earths something of a pioneer. The large-scale pilot plant was built as part of Rainbow Rare Earths' close collaboration since 2022 with South Africa's State-owned Mintek research organisation. The pilot operated at the high level of 20 kg per hour of feed, making it six to ten times the size of a normal pilot plant. The availability of phosphogypsum is the result of the mining of a hard-rock phosphate deposit, which has been carried out by Foskor for more than 60 years. The mined material is concentrated through a flotation process into a phosphate slurry, which over the period has been the feed for a nearby phosphoric acid plant, where two key ingredients were added, namely sulphuric acid and heat to create phosphoric acid. An agreement was signed with phosphate mining company Bosveld Phosphates in June 2023 to ensure 100% ownership of the Phalaborwa project. An interim economic study released in December 2024 proposed a project life of 16 years - two years longer than the one envisaged in the October 2022 preliminary economic assessment (PEA) - processing an average of 2.2-million tonnes of phosphogypsum a year. The overall recovery rate of magnet rare...
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  • Africa’s minerals indispensable for clean global economy, Valterra Platinum highlights
    This audio is brought to you by Astec Industries, a Global Leader in manufacturing equipment for infrastructure, including asphalt production, construction, and material processing, driving innovation and sustainability. Africa's minerals are indispensable for a clean economy and these range from platinum group metals (PGMs), which power hydrogen and fuel cells, to cobalt and manganese, which will drive battery storage, and rare earths, which enable solar and wind technologies. Valterra Platinum CEO Craig Miller pointed this out during a B20 event covered by Mining Weekly on Friday. Interestingly, Miller created great B20 and G20 excitement by making use of a platinum-catalysed hydrogen fuel cell electric Toyota Mirai car that gave real-life visibility to the clean economy that this continent's PGMs can bring to the entire world. "Our opportunity, and I dare say our responsibility, extends far beyond mineral extraction. It is to transform our natural endowment into a foundation for industrial growth that supports technological innovation, as well as shared prosperity across the continent," Miller highlighted at the event where African Continental Free Trade Area secretary general Wamkele Mene noted forcefully that all the signals, from the private sector and public sector, are dictating that "we have to seize this moment". Transformation beyond extraction, Miller pointed out, required the activation of a set of enablers that together form the architecture of a thriving critical minerals ecosystem. Needed first was an integrated forward-looking strategy embedded with clear and predictable rules and regulations. Miller highlighted the next enablers as reliable feedstock, a fit-for-purpose infrastructure, affordable finance, a skilled workforce, and strong market access - the levers that determine whether value is created locally and at scale. "And lastly, perception enablers, which are investor confidence and community confidence built on trust and transparency," he added. Market development, "which I know many of us are incredibly passionate about", as well as market access, were singled out by Miller as the two most catalytic changes required to achieve industrial and economic development. Market development and market access were, he said, certainly what would transform a mine into an industry and a resource into a sustainable future creation. "Developing regional markets for our critical minerals - and for the technologies that use them - will shift Africa from being a source of raw materials to becoming a hub for refined metals, manufactured components and a clean-tech innovation. "To do that, one of the things that is required is the support of the African Continental Free Trade Area, which connects 55 economies into a 1.4-billion-person market. "It enables regional value chains in critical minerals, batteries and clean technologies. "The African Continental Free Trade Area provides the scale to attract capital, the rules to build investor confidence, and a platform to integrate SMEs and innovators into the global supply chains. "Too often we speak of investing in minerals as though this is primary about to mine the act of extraction. "We must instead see that investing in an entire value, a creating ecosystem, yes, mining, but also processing and marketing those minerals to final product is an imperative for the countries where we operate and for Africa's people. "It requires us to invest in logistics and infrastructure and into institutions which train skilled people, which support professional services and marketing capacity, as well as the sophistication of suppliers, from small businesses to multinational technology firms. "And critically, we have to enable this through the policy, through regulation, taxation, and a legal environment, legal environment that allows the ecosystem to thrive. "So, if we can all align on capital, on skills, on policy around these enablers, Africa will not just fuel the world's transiti...
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  • Platinum derivatives, trade tensions, Africa partnership make headlines
    Mining Weekly Editor Martin Creamer discusses the first-of-a-kind platinum and palladium derivatives approved by China; trade tensions influence on the platinum industry; and the new Africa partnership era that the Mining Indaba is helping to build momentum towards.
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  • Mining Weekly driven around Joburg in platinum-based hydrogen fuel cell electric car
    This audio is brought to you by Astec Industries, a Global Leader in manufacturing equipment for infrastructure, including asphalt production, construction, and material processing, driving innovation and sustainability. Mining Weekly as well several B20 visitors were this week chauffeured around Johannesburg in a platinum-catalysed hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) that journalists attending South Africa's B20 Summit witnessed being refuelled by Air Products with hydrogen from Sasol relatively quickly, with a full tank providing sufficient energy for a 500 km to 600 km journey. (Also watch attached Creamer Media video.) Six companies were responsible for the impressive display of mine-to-market activation, which elevated the status of South Africa's platinum group metals sky-high at a time of visiting B20 delegates. The companies work collaboratively in a green mobility partnership that emphasises the local availability within South Africa of key ingredients needed to put FCEVs on the road at a time when South Africa's promising hydrogen corridor Project Rhynbow scheme is also progressing. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange-listed Valterra Platinum, as an official sponsor of the B20 Summit, led the mine-to-market display at the Maslow Hotel in Sandton, amid an advertising hoarding that drew prominent attention to the vital contributions of Sasol, which has been producing hydrogen in major volumes in South Africa since 1950; Toyota, which provided the top-notch FCEV Mirai car that was used to chauffeur Mining Weekly on the low-noise drive around town; Air Products, which showed how refuelling speed is basically what we're used to with petrol and diesel; Bambili Energy, the women-led local manufacturer of membrane electrode assemblies needed in fuel cells; Bosch, the German giant that makes use of the products made by Bambili; and BMW, which in February last year was the car company that laid on 'sheer driving pleasure' to the Mining Weekly team with its BMW iX5 FCEV taking journalists around Midrand. While President Cyril Ramaphosa was outlining the extent to which the hydrogen economy unpacks major potential value for the South African economy, Valterra Platinum principal: market development Fahmida Smith was reporting on FCEVs already giving taxi drivers a much longer range in Europe. This followed Toyota new energy business development senior manager Anton Smalberger pointing out that "the best model we have is what we've seen in Europe", a reference to the fleet of 200 FCEV taxis in Berlin. "As Anton says, it does make economic sense, because it's giving the taxi drivers much longer range, and longer use of the vehicle," Smith pointed out. Instead of having a vehicle offline for a few hours while it recharges, the taxis come into a refuelling station and take a few minutes to refuel their FCEVs, giving them a lot more drive time. "With that increase in drive time, they're able to then get to economies of scale. Within the South African context, we need to be cognisant that we don't have the large purse strings of Europe or the US or China, so we need to be very creative and innovative in how we do projects here, using the ecosystem approach," a reference by Smith to the combination of Valterra with PGMs, Sasol with hydrogen, Air Products with hydrogen transport and refuelling, Toyota and BMW with FCEVs, Bosch with accomplished global implementation, and Bambili and potentially more local companies with contributing manufacture. "For us, the ecosystem is important. With this type of mobile refueller, you can have a mobile system very quickly on the ground," Smith remarked while standing alongside the mobile hydrogen dispenser provided by Air Products. "As utilisation of the system increases, the price point decreases, and you can get to economies of scale a lot faster, eventually reaching the point of needing bulk infrastructure. You move away from the chicken-and-egg discussion and actively and innovatively drive ...
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