Disorder

Armenia just re-elected populist PM Nikol Pashinyan, confirming voters are ready to move on from the lost Karabakh war and lean toward Europe over Russia. Jason talks with Thomas de Waal, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and author of a leading book on the Caucasus, to explain how Armenia got here and what it means for the wider region.

We dig into the deep split inside Armenia between Pashinyan's vision of a smaller, normalised state and the diaspora's lingering territorial claims, drawing a comparison to Israel's own internal divides. We also cover Georgia's slide back toward Moscow under billionaire ruler Bidzina Ivanishvili.

Finally, we look at the Trump-brokered Armenia-Azerbaijan transit deal, awkwardly named "TRIPP" after the president, and ask whether it's real American statecraft or just opportunism, what it costs Georgia and Iran, and what Israel might learn from Armenia's experience of losing a war when its only patron failed to show up.

This is the second episode of Disorder: Latest, where we interview a guest every other Thursday on a wide range of topics covering our global order.
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For a special live edition of Disorder, we come to you live from the United Nations Association – UK, where Jason, Jane and Mark were  joined by a special guest-- Alexis Akwagyiram, Managing Editor for Africa at Semafor.

Mark and Jason discussed the latest disorder in the UK and if Andy Burnham might be able to bring Order to Britain? But will he even be able to order its bond markets? Jane and Jason look at the reigniting of fighting between Israel and Iran, and what happens next, and Alexis and Jane discussed the fallout from the disorderly war on inflation and food prices in Africa and provide the latest on Nigeria and the role of African countries in restoring some global order.

For a full, unedited edition of the episode with full q and a, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

For full list of Makerfield Election candidates visit https://makerfieldcandidates.co.uk/ 

Watch Wes Streeting on News Agents https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VUDvtZWrtg 
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Over the weekend Iran launched waves of missiles at Israel, while Israel retaliated against military targets and a petrochemical complex in Iran, as an uneasy two-month truce appeared to break down.

Trump had earlier appeared keen to avoid an escalation, telling Bibi not to respond to the first barrage of Iranian missiles. Under the surface, Israel wants to complete the job in Lebanon, but Trump wants all the wars over so he can cover up his failure. We start the ep by Jason explaining these late-breaking developments and then introducing the electoral fight between neo-populism and progressivism in one of Latin America’s most geopolitically important countries.

As we pivot to the feature topic, we ask what is going on in Colombia's presidential election and will it jeopardise the country's peace agreement which former Disorder guest Jonathan Powell helped negotiate many moons ago? Might we see multiple Latin American countries moving to the neo-populism right helped by Trump - including the return of the Bolsonaro family in Brazil? What are the interests that the Trump administration is pursuing in Latin America? Is it mostly just about critical minerals or is it more of a shared worldview? And how can people in the continent pursue democracy and rights when the US and China are competing to get hold of their critical minerals? 

This week Jane meets distinguished human rights lawyer Viviana Krsticevic, executive director of the Center for Justice and International Law, founder of GQual and member of the UN’s independent fact-finding mission on human rights in Iran. They discuss how Vivi's childhood in Argentina under the military junta left her with a determination to fight for democracy, gender equality and human rights after seeing the costs of authoritarianism firsthand, and they discuss strategies for advancing freedom and justice despite the current age of political disorder and democratic backsliding. In the Ordering the Disorder segment they discuss, Latin America's role in global politics and how the key aspects of multilateralism are highlighted by the current search for the next UN Secretary General - likely to come from Latin America.

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

To tell us more about Disorder, visit disordershow.com/survey 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

For background on the electoral situation in Colombia pls consult:

https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/reaction-colombia-heads-toward-polarizing-runoff/

And https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/30/colombia-presidential-election-vote-resurgence-political-violence 

 

Check out Vivi's interview with IranWire on human rights abuses in Iran: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFM9Z5Zyhxc

For more on Colombia, read this Q&A from the International Crisis Group: https://www.crisisgroup.org/qna/latin-america-caribbean/colombia-united-states/right-and-left-vie-victory-colombia-under-us-shadow

And for more of Jane's recent takes, check out her recent interview with Lewis Goodall on LBC on how Trump is redefining "ceasefire" - and not in a good way - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrjB2q7qYQQ
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It is our favourite time of the month, listeners questions!

This week Jason and Jane take listener questions around topics including: Will Netanyahu be ousted in this year’s elections? Have the Israeli anti-Bibi bloc learned the lessons of Hungary before the next parliamentary elections? Can Reform UK be trusted to do what they say they will? Is a constantly changing leader now the norm in UK politics? Does Trump’s trip to China change anything? And what’s the Disordering role of the UAE in global politics? And should the West give the UAE a tough love approach to help them play the role of global citizen better?

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

To tell us more about Disorder, visit disordershow.com/survey 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Pls find out about the 8 June 530pm in Westminster live podcast event and join the Mega Orderers club or Pay for Substack here to attend here: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/p/disorder-live-podcast-at-un-association 

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events like the 8 June 530pm Westminster event, visit disordershow.com/club

Jane’s recommended The Economist Bagehot column on whether Britain is ungovernable https://www.economist.com/britain/2026/04/22/sir-keir-starmer-cannot-govern-he-has-only-himself-to-blame 

Read Will Self’s new column on Starmer as mentioned by Jane https://x.com/wself/status/2054946706723160363 
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The crises across our disordered world are more interconnected than ever. As states pursue their own self-interest, genuine collective action for mutual shared benefit seems further away than ever before. How can we ever hope to Order this Disorder?

To try, Jason is joined this week by his old friend David Tafuri. David previously served as the US Department of State’s Rule of Law Coordinator for Iraq, was an outside foreign policy advisor to President Obama’s campaign in 2008, has worked for the United Nations in Turkey, and is the founder and current President of the US-Kurdistan Business Council.

The pair start with the latest in Ukraine--following up on David’s recent visit there. Then they embark on a whistle stop tour of the Middle East, exploring the latest in Iraq, Syria, Israel, and Lebanon. And… as they Order the Disorder, the discuss the situation in the Gulf, how the Gulfis and European Allies could help open Hormuz, the need to tackle misinformation, and why the Trump admin needs to put aside its destructive unilateralism and work more closely with traditional American allies on Ukraine and the Iran war.

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

To tell us more about Disorder, visit disordershow.com/survey 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

Watch more on David’s attempts to address misinformation in Ukraine:  https://youtube.com/shorts/TWRqQNojKvg?si=dRu81hERC5-HYGNz

More on David’s career here: https://www.afslaw.com/attorneys/david-tafuri 

Plus his reporting from Ukraine’s frontline: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DYX_0c8kTjl/?igsh=eTY2dHh4Zm44eTJp 
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