As we wait for the seabed search for MH370’s wreckage to restart, it’s worth taking the time to reflect about what we’ve learned from the search thus far, and what future scanning will tell us about the plane’s likely fate. Under the principles of Bayesian inference, the more of the seabed is searched without the plane’s wreckage being discovered, the greater the probability becomes that the plane simply isn’t there at all. But there’s an escape hatch to this logic: according to an idea called Cromwell’s Rule, the probability will not change so long as we are 100 percent confidant in the proposition that the plane is somewhere in the ocean. In today’s episode whether such confidence is merited, or whether the widespread refusal to consider an alternative is due to a mental blockage or blind spot. I also discuss my new feature article in Vanity Fair magazine about mounting concerns about cyber attacks against airliners around the world — and now, for the first time, in the United States. Get full access to Finding MH370 at www.deepdivemh370.com/subscribe
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26:24
Seabed Search Suspended
Trying to understand what’s going on with the latest seabed search for MH370 is like reading tea leaves. Neither the Malaysian government, which is responsible for solving the mystery, nor Ocean Infinity, the marine survey company looking for the plane, has been very forthcoming about what they’re doing. So it was a nice change of pace when the Minister of Transport, Anthony Loke stood up at a press conference on April 2, 2025, and dropped two important pieces of information in quick succession. The good news was that Malaysia and Ocean Infinity has finally signed a contract for the search, under which Malaysia will pay $70 million if the plane’s wreckage is found. The bad news was that the search, which had been moving along at a brisk pace in previous weeks, would be suspended until the end of the year. To make sense of what is really going on, I turned to the person who has proven to be the best-sourced observer of the seabed search, Kevin Rupp, who shares marine tracking data and other insights on his Facebook page, Ocean Infinity News and Updates. In today’s episode Kevin reveals what was behind the decision to pause the search and what likely lies ahead. Get full access to Finding MH370 at www.deepdivemh370.com/subscribe
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11:37
Goodbye, Armada [S2Ep34 audio]
On Friday March 28 the ship scanning the seabed for MH370, Armada 78 06, stowed its AUVs and set sail to the north, putting an end to the second phase of the third seabed search. It is currently underway for Singapore, about 2300 nautical miles to the north, and is scheduled to arrive on April 8.In today’s episode I discuss what Ocean Infinity accomplished during this last search phase and what might lie in store—and why those of us expecting hard answers from the seabed search are likely going to have to wait a little while.Last week I took a look at one of the leading lights of the MH370 community, Victor Iannello; today I explore the more complicated back story of Richard Godfrey. I revisit some of the extraordinary claims he has made and unveil the actual nature of his expertise. It turns out to be quite different from what institutions like the ATSB and the BBC have stated to the public. Get full access to Finding MH370 at www.deepdivemh370.com/subscribe
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27:28
Into the Blelly Zone [S2Ep33 audio]
The seabed search for MH370 remains in full swing. It is now 12 days into Phase 2 of the third seabed search, and we’re talking about whose much-discussed theory of the plane’s disappearance is now being put to the test. I also share some interesting and intriguing information about one of the most important and influential characters in the MH370 community. Get full access to Finding MH370 at www.deepdivemh370.com/subscribe
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19:27
Search Phase 2: Virgin Territory [S2Ep32 audio]
In the last episode we talked about how we couldn’t tell what Ocean Infinity was planning, because they weren’t saying anything publicly and the ship tasked with searching the seabed seemed to heading off to South Africa.Well, fortunately, that didn’t happen. Instead, Armada 78 06 sailed to a stretch of ocean near the 7th arc, arriving there on Tuesday March 11, and it deployed its three search AUVs, which it continues to do today, Saturday March 15.But what comes next?With still no information coming out of Ocean Infinity or the Malaysia government, all we can do is read the tea leaves, and infer what their strategy is from the surface movement of the ship. There’s no getting around it: what we’re talking about is informed gueswork, but at least the picture is a lot clearer than it was a week ago. And basically, the news is quite good. In today’s episode I explain why. Get full access to Finding MH370 at www.deepdivemh370.com/subscribe
South Africa