ChinaPower

This ChinaPower Podcast is a recording of an event we held on December 18th, 2024 on the U.S. Department of Defense’s (DOD) 2024 report on the Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—commonly known as the China Military Power Report (CMPR).   Required every year by Congress for over 20 years, the CMPR offers an authoritative assessment of the PRC's national strategies and its regional and global ambitions. It also outlines key developments pertaining to People’s Liberation Army (PLA) modernization and the expansion of its nuclear, cyberspace, and space capabilities. What are the major takeaways from the 2024 report and what is the current assessment of China’s military power? How are China’s defense and security strategies evolving, and what does it mean for the United States? Joining us to highlight the report’s findings are Dr. Ely S. Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs and Dr. Michael S. Chase, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Feng Zhang joins us to discuss China-North Korea relations in light of the growing Russia-North Korea relationship and deployment of North Korean troops to support Russia. Dr. Zhang discusses how the China-North Korea relationship has suffered in recent years, in part due to China joining UN sanctions against North Korea in 2016, the COVID-19 pandemic, and North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Dr. Zhang explains that China has a waning influence over North Korea, evidenced most strongly through the recent further alignment between Pyongyang and Moscow. He notes that China still sees itself as a great power on the Korean Peninsula, striving for regional stability to ensure its own national security, but that China struggles to use its economic and diplomatic pressures on North Korea, fearing that it may antagonize Pyongyang against Beijing. Dr. Zhang notes that North Korea is widely viewed in China as an agent of chaos and Beijing does not want to be viewed as a member or leader in the “axis of upheaval” with North Korea, Russia, and Iran. Finally, given China’s rising concerns about North Korean foreign policy and growing North Korea-Russia ties, Dr. Zhang predicts Beijing will try to play a bigger role in working with the incoming Trump Administration and other regional actors to curb North Korea’s provocative behavior. Dr. Feng Zhang is a Visiting Scholar at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center. He previously held positions at Tsinghua University, Murdoch University, and the Australian National University. He specializes in Chinese foreign policy, international relations in East Asia, and international relations theory. He is the author of Chinese Hegemony: Grand Strategy and International Institutions in East Asian History (Stanford, 2015). He co-authored two books with Richard Ned Lebow: Taming Sino-American Rivalry (Oxford, 2020) and Justice and International Order: East and West (Oxford, 2022). His new book on China’s Policy toward Afghanistan since 1949 will be published shortly. His current project examines the causes and management of U.S.-China competition.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Ryan Berg joins us to discuss China’s relations with Latin America. Dr. Berg discusses both Chinese and U.S. interests in the region, emphasizing that while the U.S. has tended to approach the region with “strategic neglect,” China seems to view Latin America as highly important in terms of both its strategic and economic goals. Dr. Berg explains his view that President Xi is personally invested in the region and believes it holds high economic complementarity to the Chinese economy, specifically in relation to China’s Belt and Road Imitative (BRI). Dr. Berg notes that although the U.S. is still the preferred security partner among Latin American countries, China is becoming more competitive in this space and is viewed among many countries as providing more opportunities, specifically in the economic realm. Dr. Berg also discusses the public opinion of China in Latin America, noting that China’s image has not fully recovered since its decline during COVID-19, and describes the U.S. efforts to not only warn Latin American countries of the risks of investment and economic deals with China but also the US attempt to compete with China as the preferred economic partner. Dr. Berg provides insights on President Xi’s most recent trip to the region for the APEC Leader’s Summit, specifically discussing his inauguration of a new massive port in Peru, and other ways Xi seemed to overshadow President Biden. Finally, Dr. Berg discusses some of the concerns surrounding China’s growing presence in the region and suggestions for U.S. policymakers. Dr. Ryan C. Berg is director of the Americas Program and head of the Future of Venezuela Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also an adjunct professor at the Catholic University of America and a course coordinator at the United States Foreign Service Institute. His research focuses on U.S.-Latin America relations, strategic competition and defense policy, authoritarian regimes, armed conflict and transnational organized crime, and trade and development issues. Previously, Dr. Berg was a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he helped lead its Latin America Studies Program, as well as visiting research fellow at the University of Oxford’s Changing Character of War Programme. Dr. Berg was a Fulbright scholar in Brazil and is a Council on Foreign Relations Term Member.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Ivan Kanapathy joins us to discuss what Donald Trump’s second administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy may look like and the ways in which Trump redefined the U.S. relationship with China during his first term. Mr. Kanapathy shares that a second Trump administration will likely show high continuity from his first and speaks to how Trump will have to deal with a more aggressive China this time around but that many of the measures the Trump administration put in place during his first term have served to weaken China throughout the last few years. Mr. Kanapathy provides his assessment that the Trump administration will likely maintain many of the same objectives from the Biden administration, specifically in prioritizing U.S. security and prosperity as well as maintaining strong relationships with our allies and partners. However, he shares that Trump will likely place a larger emphasis on reducing freeriders and on leveling the planning field through increased burden sharing. Mr. Kanapathy shares his thoughts on Trump’s proposed economic policies towards the region and his view that Trump’s tariffs on China during his first administration were highly successful in diversifying U.S. imports and making goods from allies and partners, rather than China, more attractive. He explains his view that the U.S. needs clearer leadership and a more concrete strategy towards China that includes a model of deterrence without assurances. Finally, Mr. Kanapathy explains that the next administration should seek positive sum competition with China, rather than cooperation, and explains that rather than mil to mil cooperation, leader level meetings will be more effective.   Ivan Kanapathy is a senior vice president with Beacon Global Strategies. From March 2018 to July 2021, he served on the White House’s National Security Council staff as director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia and deputy senior director for Asian affairs. From 2014 to 2017, Ivan worked at the American Institute in Taiwan, representing U.S. interests and advising on military and security issues in Taipei. Earlier in his career, Ivan spent a year studying in Beijing and traveling throughout China, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia as a U.S. Marine Corps foreign area study fellow; he later led the development and implementation of the service’s global security cooperation strategy and policies at the Pentagon. As a naval flight officer, Ivan accumulated 2,500 flight hours, served three years as a F/A-18 weapons officer and tactics instructor at the U.S Navy Fighter Weapons School (better known as TOPGUN), and deployed to the Middle East and Western Pacific five times, earning several combat awards and decorations. He holds a MA (with distinction) in East Asia security studies from the Naval Postgraduate School, a BS in physics and economics from Carnegie Mellon University, and an AA and diploma (with highest honors) in Chinese – Mandarin from the Defense Language Institute.