Squawk Box Europe Express

Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, returning him to Parliament and setting up a leadership challenge against U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer. In geopolitics, U.S.-Iran talks today are called off after U.S. Vice President JD Vance cancels his trip to Switzerland, as the administration hits back at criticism of the deal from both sides of the aisle. Meanwhile, OPEC welcomes an interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran, pushing back on forecasts of a supply glut following the conflict. Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais tells CNBC exclusively that OPEC still has the power to manage the market.
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The U.S. and Iran both sign their MOU for their peace framework. Crude prices tumble with hopes growing that the Strait of Hormuz will now re-open. President Trump warns the U.S. will reserve the right to retaliate should Tehran violate the deal. The Federal Reserve holds rates steady during Kevin Warsh’s first decision as chairman of the central bank, but officials say hikes loom later in the year. Warsh said his key concern is to bring inflation back to its 2 per cent target. The CEOs of Anthropic, Google and DeepMind have led calls for a U.S.-led AI coalition for the sector. Tech executives and world leaders have convened at the G7 summit in Evian, France where French President Emmanuel Macron warned against nationalistic policies within the sector.
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More details of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement framework have been revealed with reports of a $300bn investment fund for Tehran along with renewed export capacities. We are live at the G7 summit in Evian, France where President Trump has said the deal also guaranteed Iran would no longer possess nuclear armament capabilities. A.I. and security are also in focus at the G7 with various top tech executives due to attend amid the fallout from the White House’s export control of Anthropic’s latest model. We are also live at the Vivatech conference in Paris where A.I. access and strategic autonomy will dominate the agenda. In the U.S., the Fed awaits its first decision under new chairman Kevin Warsh with the future of forward guidance crucial to the central bank.
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U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at the G7 summit in Evian, France, touting a win via the signing of a peace framework with Iran. The deal extends the ceasefire by 60 days and re-opens the Strait of Hormuz. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy is also at the summit and is due to meet leaders with EU membership discussions on the agenda. The BoJ lifts its benchmark interest rate to 1 per cent – its highest level in 30 years – seeking to normalise monetary policy and bring down inflation. Wall Street is in the green following news of the Middle East peace agreement. The Nasdaq surged 3 per cent on Monday while SpaceX shares clock a further 20 per cent in growth.
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The U.S. and Iran agree to a plan to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations about Iran’s nuclear capabilities will be discussed over the next 60 days. Crude prices fall back towards the $80-mark as President Trump declares ‘let the oil flow’. Asian equities move firmly into the green with European and U.S. futures also set to move higher. The U.S. moves to limit access to Anthropic’s most advanced models, prompting the company to restrict access altogether. President Trump heads to the G7 summit in Evian urging France to abandon its tech tax or face a 100 per cent tariff on wine exports.
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