Squawk Box Europe Express

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve decision today, as America’s central bank is all-but certain to have its first hike in over 3 years with the expected move will likely strain ties with U.S. President Donald Trump. Meta’s Mark Zuckaberg is weighing in on the AI safety debate, favoring independent evaluation rather than a slowdown in development, but Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar come down on opposite sides of the conversation.
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Chip names sell off on both sides of the pond amid investor pullback after warnings from AI giants. Software stocks, however, catch a bid, putting the two baskets at a huge divergence. Trump intervenes, calling warnings over the technology a “sick” “hoax,” and telling AI leaders not to kill the “golden goose”, going as far as calling up Jensen Huang during a podcast recording. The 10-year Treasury yield hits its highest ever level in almost 20 years, with traders eyeing a near 95% chance of a Fed hike as the FOMC starts its two-day meeting today.
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AI safety fears have dominated the sphere as Anthropic chief Dario Amodei's proposals to rein in development manage to unite bitter rivals Elon Musk and Sam Altman in support. However, U.S. president Donald Trump disagrees. Trump’s relationship with Fed Chair Warsh is set for a new test as investors eye a more-than 85% chance the central bank raises rates at its meeting this week while the President says the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates in the world. Oil prices notch fresh gains amid new strikes on Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz, which force Saudi to temporarily shut its East-West oil pipeline.
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The latest U.S. Treasury buyback disappoints which piles on the pressure to sell global bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield is inching towards 5 per cent. In oil news, WTI tops $100 for the first time since May as continued Iranian attacks on Gulf refineries and vessels attempting to pass out of the Strait of Hormuz drive raise concerns over an extended disruption to supply. The ECB bumps rates by a quarter point as energy price concerns steer the inflation outlook upwards.
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President Trump talks up America's "tremendous" success as he promises a 'dividend' to US adult citizens if the Republicans retain control of Congress - in a pledge totalling more than a trillion dollars. The 10-year US bond yield jumps to its highest level in three years as the Treasury Department announces plans to buy back up to 6 billion dollars in longer-term debt - triple the normal level. UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti telling CNBC he sees investor complacency as geopolitical and economic risks mount. Apple unveils its long-awaited foldable phone, with the 'iPhone Duo' coming in just shy of $2,000 in a major shakeup of its lineup under new CEO John Ternus. The ECB looks poised to raise rates at today's meeting, with traders pricing in a near 100 percent chance of a 25 basis point hike.
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