Squawk Box Europe Express

Crude prices slip as President Trump claims an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine days after announcing a controversial diesel deal with Moscow. The U.S. President has also said he's considering joining Saudi Arabia in its fight against the Iran-backed Houthis following strikes on Riyadh's main airport which killed 13 people. Elsewhere in markets, US and European futures point to gains at the open, in a week set to be dominated by bank earnings. And, China and the EU hold "intensive" talks on the auto trade amid concerns over market dumping.
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CNBC confirms that OpenAI told investors its annualised revenue came in roughly $20 billion below that expected at the end of September, with the news pushing AI names including Nvidia, Oracle and Coreweave deep into the red. Meanwhile, Ray Dalio tells us the stock market's cushion against rising yields is shrinking - even amid expected strength in corporate earnings - warning there are not enough investors to meet funding requirements. And President Trump promises not to attack Iran until after November's mid-term elections, saying productive discussions are ongoing - despite Houthi rebels targeting Saudi airports, killing three and forcing hundreds of flights to be cancelled.
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The global bond rout eases as the latest Fed minutes dial back the odds of a rate hike this month - shifting expectations to December instead - while Wednesday's successful 10-year Treasury auction draws solid demand, bringing the yield down from a 24-year high. Meanwhile, France braces for further student protests today as Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu admits anger over school conditions is not unprovoked, while he also moves to cap next year's public deficit at 5% to ease debt spiral fears. And, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič touches down in China for two days of trade talks, with Brussels eyeing a cap on hybrid car imports as the bloc’s trade deficit with Beijing balloons to more than €1 billion a day.
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The S&P 500 shatters records to close above 7,800 points for the first time, propelled by a massive tech rally is masking a broader market sell-off. Beneath the surface, trouble is brewing. We dive into the bond market volatility pushing the 10-year Treasury yield back past 5.3% and unpack UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti’s urgent warning about France's debt crisis. Plus, we look at Mistral AI’s bold new model, "Le Chonk," and the Houthi attacks that have Brent crude surging back over $100 a barrel.
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As stock markets advance, so do bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury topping 5.3%, while investors continue to dump French paper, taking the spread with German bunds to its widest since the Eurozone debt crisis and the euro to a 17-month low. In the face of a looming debt spiral, former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane tells CNBC that governments must outline plans to curb spending. And, AI executives testify in New York and Sydney over safety fears and rogue agents, with OpenAI admitting that its actions and response to the Australian government hack were "not good enough".
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