UBS On-Air: Market Moves

We explore a topic that’s been gaining momentum, especially among working families: Financial Independence, Retire Early, or FIRE. Justin Waring from the UBS Chief Investment Office Global Investment Management team, joins to explain what the FIRE movement is, and why it’s resonating right now. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump posted on social media that the US will “guide” commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Media reports suggest this will not involve naval escorts. Iran’s parliamentary security committee head Aziz called the posts delusional. The oil market reaction gives weight to the Iranian view. US gasoline prices are approaching USD 4.5 per US gallon, which is an incentive for the administration to use calming rhetoric to guide markets. This has less impact as the point of physical shortages moves closer.

The end of Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair brings a shift in US monetary policy, with a divided committee and new leadership on the horizon. We break down what the Fed transition means for interest rates, the outlook for further cuts, and how incoming chair Warsh’s views on AI, the Fed’s balance sheet, and inflation targets could shape fixed income markets. Tune in at the start of the trading week for this regular market outlook from Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Chief Investment Officer Americas and Global Head of Equities.

Andrew Dubinsky, Senior US Economist, joins to reflect on this week’s FOMC meeting and the likely final press conference held by Chairman Jerome Powell. We also discuss what a Kevin Warsh-led Fed might look like, along with outline expectations for monetary policy through the balance of the year. Plus, a health check on US economic activity. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump vowed to keep the (US) Hormuz blockade, declaring the Iranian economy was “crashing,” which would force negotiations. Investors are more inclined to look at the state of the US economy as determining how the situation evolves. In the Wile E Coyote scenario, the US is off the edge of the cliff but happily running on thin air. Thursday’s data showed household savings rates have fallen from 5.1% to 3.6% of disposable income during this administration, which is how consumers afford the affordability crisis. This decline can sustain consumption for some time, but not indefinitely.