UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Arif Joshi is a Senior Managing Director and Head of the Emerging Markets platform at Bramshill Investments. Arif shares boots-on-the-ground insights following a recent trip to Venezuela, as we discuss the country’s geopolitical relations with the US, along with the landscape for energy production and exploration. We also discuss the US-Iran war and its’ implications to economic activity in the region, upcoming talks between President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, along with where to locate opportunity across the emerging markets. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UAE’s imminent departure from the OPEC oil cartel is the most significant to date. Near term, there is little impact—oil prices are primarily influenced by Iran. Longer term, it may mean more supply, although OPEC’s influence in broadly defined energy supply is likely to decline at an accelerated pace with electrification. The move may signal a more urgent need for revenue by the UAE—reflecting reconstruction, rearmament, and the loss of revenues from oil, tourism, and nomadic wealth.

The seventh edition of CIO’s 250 years of US innovation series, A great future in plastics, examines how credit cards evolved from a simple piece of plastic into a global payments infrastructure. Our conversation explores how networks, technology, and trust transformed everyday transactions, reshaping commerce and the modern economy. Featured is Jeff Harwood, Financials Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the less market impact US President Trump’s early morning social media posts are likely to have. While physical reserves exist, prices can move on expectations. As physical shortages become a threat, expectations will have less of an impact—bad news for speculators placing conveniently timed trades. However, consumers can absorb higher prices for a time.

Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, drops by to review the latest allocation recommendations and key messages from the UBS Chief Investment Office, per the May edition of the UBS House View. We also assess how the markets are now viewing the US-Iran War, performance of Q1 corporate earnings, and what to expect from this week’s FOMC meeting. Host: Daniel Cassidy