UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Media reports suggest Iran’s government has proposed terms to the US to allow a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets’ bias to optimism produced a positive reaction. The terms apparently defer nuclear discussions, which may be a problem for the US administration. Recent polls gave US President Trump very weak approval ratings over the US affordability crisis, suggesting there could be political pressures to return to the pre-war position in the Gulf.

An influx of large-scale US IPOs is set to reshape market dynamics, creating new competition for capital, index presence, and profit pools. Fast-tracked index additions could drive rotation out of the largest index names. At the same time new AI-focused companies target digital profit pools. We see this as a signal to diversify beyond the biggest index weights and consider physical assets less exposed to AI disruption. Tune in at the start of the trading week for this regular market outlook from Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Chief Investment Officer Americas and Global Head of Equities.

Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David explains CIO’s positive outlook for US equities, reflects on why equity markets have shown resiliency despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, outlines the risk factors that could trigger volatility, and reviews Q1 earnings results at the mid-point. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A look at the landscape for Agency RMBS and the Housing Market, including an outlook for rates, and thoughts around broader fixed income positioning. Featured are Clayton Triick, Head of Portfolio Management of Public Strategies with Angel Oak Capital Advisors, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Bryan Contreras

The Wile E Coyote effect—running off the edge of a cliff, and continuing to run before eventually gravity takes over—remains evident for developed economy consumers. UK March retail sales (which adjust for price effects) showed rising volumes of oil and non-oil sales. The surge in oil volumes means part of the UK’s oil reserves are stored in consumers' cars. The stronger non-oil sales signal consumers will cut savings rates to maintain (or increase) living standards. This cannot carry on forever, but economic gravity has yet to exert itself.