UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Following this week’s highly anticipated FOMC meeting, Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by the studio to share takeaways and reflections on the meeting outcome, along with the implications of the rate hike to US economy activity. We also discuss the current inflationary environment, labor market and how the markets have digested the rate hike. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s unanimous vote in favor of a US interest rate increase could be interpreted as defiance against political interference. Having raised once, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise again—to prove this rate increase was intentional and not a mistake (even if it was a mistake). The rate increase has no near-term impact on inflation or economic growth.

A look into the interplay and market dynamics of large government debt issuance and AI-related debt fundraising, factors that have been contributing to rising long-end yields, along with positioning preferences within the asset class. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and John Murtagh, Fixed Income Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

After the pandemic, the world’s central banks were subject to a series of unfortunate events: supply chain disruption, a war in Ukraine, profit-led inflation, tariffs, and a war in the Gulf. These one-off events raised inflation, but (bar profit-led inflation) were beyond central bank control. But, when such events become a series, should central banks create deflation elsewhere to offset “one-off” events elsewhere?

As financial markets are back in full swing post the summer holidays, investors are weighing fresh inflation data, health of the labor market, rising oil prices, and a notable upcoming Fed policy meeting. Plus, recent concern over AI safety and implications to the AI trade. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investments Office, discusses these factors, what it all means for the investment outlook, and how to think about positioning. Host: Daniel Cassidy