UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Markets continue to weigh the cost of and potential returns of AI-buildout, the path forward for interest rates, Q3 corporate earnings, and the quickly approaching US midterm elections. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to assess this range of factors, along with shares the latest positioning recommendations and messaging per the latest UBS House View update. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets’ optimism bias has been given some life by news that Iran and Saudi Arabia are to hold talks, with Pakistan and Turkey mediating. Oil prices have dropped a little on the news. US President Trump also made comments on Iran but investors give less weight to these. US retail diesel prices keep rising and gasoline prices have stopped falling, which is assumed to constrain Trump’s ability to act.

The AI boom is being financed very differently on each side of the market. This episode examines the contrasting funding models behind AI supply and demand, the role of private capital in sustaining compute consumption, and the implications for investors as spending continues to expand.

Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David reflects on the factors that are driving equity markets, including oil prices, AI, Fed monetary policy, Q3 corporate earnings, and the upcoming US midterm election. Plus, an outlook for equities into year-end, and the latest positioning views. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Technology sector equity movements are attracting attention, but economists retain an appropriate degree of aloofness. The pattern of consumers reducing savings to finance consumption has been fairly universal across advanced economies. Wealth effects from the technology sector have not been as universal. As wealth effects are meaningless without changes of behavior to translate them into real economic action, the global similarities of behavior hint at consumers having a muted dependence on rising equity markets.