Pat Mayo Experience

Pat Mayo, Geoff Feinberg, and Tim Anderson make their game picks against the spread for every matchup on the NFL Week 1 slate. The guys run through their early line leans, debate Super Locks and Survivor Pool strategy, and hand the floor over to Judge Cust to rule on lightly worn denim, Buc-ee's bag policies, and Rob Thomas refusing to play the hits.

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#NFL #NFLPicks #Week1Picks #SportsBetting #PatMayoExperience #UDPartner

CHAPTERS
0:00 Cold Open: Cust's Giants Hot Take
2:05 Week 1 Picks & Survivor Setup
3:45 Cust's Perfect Survivor Season Recap/Last Year's ATS Standings & Results
6:55 Show Schedule & YouTube Memberships
10:45 Patriots at Seahawks
17:15 Cust’s Hateful Eight Teams
20:20 Rams vs. 49ers (Melbourne, Australia)
28:00 The Glory of Week 1 Sunday
32:05 Buccaneers at Bengals
37:30 Saints at Lions
40:45 Jets at Titans
52:35 Ravens at Colts
1:00:25 Cust Corner: The All-Season Theme Park
1:13:20 Cust Corner: Crosswalk Bridges Invention
1:24:00 Falcons at Steelers
1:29:35 Bears at Panthers
1:35:05 Browns at Jaguars
1:40:50 Bills at Texans
1:44:25 Judge Cust: Washing Lightly Used Denim
1:47:10 Judge Cust: Buc-ee's Bag Policy Grievance
1:51:15 Judge Cust: Matchbox 20 & Rob Thomas Concert
1:58:50 Dolphins at Raiders
2:05:05 Packers at Vikings
2:12:25 Commanders at Eagles
2:17:15 Cardinals at Chargers
2:22:55 Cowboys at Giants
2:29:05 Broncos at Chiefs
2:35:45 Week 1 Survivor Picks
2:38:15 Week 1 Super Locks
2:40:05 Cust’s Free Money Teaser
2:43:30 Famous Jewish Running Backs
2:45:30 Studio Intruder


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Pat Mayo welcomes Mike Leone from Establish The Run to break down how to win at NFL Daily Fantasy Football. They discuss the evolution of modern DFS, what contest sims have taught high-stakes players, contest selection, how to build proper game stacks (small field vs. large field), running back vs. wide receiver variance, flipping the build, and managing variance and expectations over a full NFL season.



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2026 DraftKings Strategy with Tambo: https://youtu.be/SPjmh9bxUF4



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#NFLDFS #DraftKings #FantasyFootball #NFL2026 #PatMayoExperience #UDPartner



TIMESTAMPS



0:00 Early Season Uncertainty & Double Leverage

1:10 Welcome to PME: Mike Leone & Modern DFS Evolution

2:15 How DFS Changed Over the Last Decade

3:15 Is "Play the Best Plays" Dead in Cash Games?

4:00 What Contest Sims Teach Us About Game Theory

5:05 Balancing Chalk vs. High Ceiling Contrarian Plays

7:00 Small-Field High Stakes (The Thunderdome) vs. Large-Field GPPs

8:05 Contest Selection: Setting Realistic Sweat & Win Expectations

10:10 Managing Emotions & Avoiding Negative EV "Safe" Builds

13:10 Stacking Strategy: Large Field vs. Small Field Lineup Construction

14:25 Massive Game Stacks & Slates with Low Totals

16:10 Overlooked High Team Totals in Low Game Total Matchups

17:45 Concentrated Offenses vs. Spread-Out Passing Attacks

18:25 4for4 Tools & Momentous

20:20 Identifying Highly Concentrated NFL Offenses for DFS

22:30 Building from Scratch: $100 Single Entry Blueprint

24:50 When to Eat Chalk: RB vs. WR Variance

26:25 Stacking Teammates Without the Quarterback

27:20 Davis Mattek Hype Trains & Terrence Ferguson Jokes

29:35 Correlating Running Backs with Defenses

30:20 Same-Team RB + WR Stacking

32:45 Tight End Strategy: Cheap Punts vs. Double Tight End Builds

33:30 Flipping the Build & Finding Compounding Leverage

37:35 Base Projections vs. 85th-100th Percentile Ceiling Outcomes

41:00 How to Pick DFS Defenses (Sim Rules & Pressure Spots)

44:05 Buying Early on Coaching Changes, New Roles & Unknowns

47:55 CarGurus & Shopify

50:05 Exploiting O-Line Injuries & Turnover-Prone Matchups

51:35 Week 1 DFS Traps & Early Pricing Dynamic

53:05 Season-Long & DFS Debate: Kenneth Walker, Derrick Henry & RBs

56:45 Chase Brown & DJ Moore Outlook

1:01:05 Week 1 Spot: DJ Moore vs. Houston Texans

1:02:25 Bankroll Variance, 2v2 Decisions & Long-Term EV

1:05:05 Selecting Between Multiple Builds for Single Entry

1:06:50 Mike Leone's Content Schedule at Establish The Run

1:07:45 Wrap-Up: Final Takeaways & Managing Expectations



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Message and data rates apply. Must be 18+ (21+MA & AZ, 19+ AL, NE) and present in a state where Underdog Fantasy operates. Terms apply. Concerned with your play? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit www.ncpgambling.org; AZ: 1-800-NEXT-STEP (1-800-639-8783) or text NEXT-STEP to 53342; NY: Call the 24/7 HOPEline at 1-877-8-HOPENY or Text HOPENY (467369)

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Pat Mayo and professional bettor Rob Pizzola dive deep into the booming world of prediction markets ahead of the NFL season. Learn the core differences between traditional sportsbooks and exchanges, maker vs. taker fee structures, how to leverage the wisdom of crowds, and why price sensitivity gives casual bettors a massive edge.



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Use code “MAYO” at underdog and make a $5 Pick’em entry and instantly get $50 in your account



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#NFLBetting #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #PatMayo #PatMayoExperience #UDPartner



CHAPTERS



0:00 - INTRO

0:50 - Welcome to PME: How to Bet Series

2:05 - Prediction Markets vs. Sportsbooks: Vig & Fees

3:00 - Market Maker vs. Market Taker Explained

5:15 - Always Getting a Two-Way Market (Yes/No)

7:05 - The Sharp vs. Casual Edge & Overround

8:45 - Volume Comparison & Source of Truth

11:15 - Why Prediction Markets Are Exploding Nationally

13:45 - Prediction Markets vs. European Betting Exchanges

15:35 - CFTC Regulation & Legal Landscape

18:10 - Utility of "Wisdom of Crowds"

22:15 - Insider Information & Trading in Non-Sports Markets

24:35 - Sports Integrity vs. Information Markets

27:10 - Sportsbook vs. Exchange Marketing Battles

28:20 - NFL Strategy: Early Week Betting & Finding Value

29:35 - Counterparty Risk & Trading Against Sharps

32:00 - Debunking the Market Maker Myth

34:25 - How Casuals Should Prepare for NFL Season

36:15 - Reading Lines, Spreads & Order Books

37:25 - NFL Sunday Night Liquidity Expectations

40:05 - Shared Liquidity Across State Lines

43:15 - Pricing Errors, Bots & Misbonds Explained

46:00 - The MLB Extra-Innings Settlement Glitch

48:20 - Peer-to-Peer Reality vs. Advanced Syndicates

50:45 - Traditional Sportsbooks vs. Prediction Market Intimidation

52:15 - In-Game Price Swings & Real-Time Probability Graphs

55:20 - Pop Culture & Specialty Markets

57:15 - Tax Realities & Legal Advice Considerations

58:35 - Golden Rules: Bankroll Management & Market Caution

1:00:05 - Hedging Bets & In-Tournament Golf Trading

1:02:25 - Combining Sportsbooks & Prediction Markets for Max Edge



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Pat Mayo, Geoff Feinberg, and Keith Stewart (ReadTheLine.com) break down the 2026 Presidents Cup Captain's Picks, recap the Golf Channel selection show disaster, debate Team USA and International team roster fits, discuss how to fix the event, and preview the Omega European Masters with outrights and FRL bets.



Get 25% off the Rabbit Hole at https://betspertsgolf.com/mayo with code “MAYO”



Use code “MAYO” at underdog and make a $5 Pick’em entry and instantly get $50 in your account



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⛳ PME Omega European Masters Bets



WINNER



Marco Penge — 22/1

David Puig — 45/1

Fabrizio Zanotti — 110/1 (Each-Way: 8 Places)

Joel Girrbach — 110/1 (Each-Way: 8 Places)



First Round Leader (FRL) Bets



Guido Migliozzi — 60/1

Thriston Lawrence — 66/1

Joel Girrbach — 80/1

Danny Willett — 100/1





CHAPTERS



0:00 INTRO

0:35 Presidents Cup Selection Show: An Absolute Disaster

1:40 Why Did the Captain's Picks Show Need 90 Minutes?

3:05 Pat’s Radical Fix for the Selection Broadcast

4:25 Reality TV Tropes & Presidents Cup Identity Crisis

5:50 Was Brandt Snedeker Bullied into the Jackson Koivun Pick?

7:05 The Ryder Cup vs. Presidents Cup Connection & Jim Furyk

8:20 Does Jacob Bridgeman Actually Fit Medinah No. 3?

9:15 Finding Team USA Pairings: Who Plays with Scottie Scheffler?

14:05 Analyzing Team USA’s 6 Captain’s Picks

15:20 The Jacob Bridgeman Controversy: Over/Under 1.5 Future Cups?

16:45 Team USA Roles: Alternate Shot, Fourball & Pod Structure

18:50 Why Bridgeman Over Ryan Gerard? Floor vs. Ceiling Debate

21:10 Betting the Presidents Cup: USA Odds & Montreal 2024 Flashbacks

22:15 Ryan Gerard's Case, Ball-Striking & Medinah Setups

24:10 Medinah Official Scorecard: Par 70, 7,548 Yards & Bomb-and-Gouge

25:35 Why Didn't They Pick Driving Distance (Thorbjornsen/Brennan)?

28:10 Koivun's Ceiling & Snedeker's Analytical Strategy

29:00 Why Was Jake Knapp Completely Overlooked?

30:05 Team Europe's Ryder Cup Adare Manor Gathering

31:10 International Team Rosters & Color Scheme Slander

32:05 The Challenge of Multilingual Team Dynamics

32:35 Christian Bezuidenhout's Pick & The Singles Matchups Loophole

34:05 Why Didn't Mike Weir Target Younger International Talent?

36:30 Medinah Redesign: The 16th Hole & Raw Distance Requirements

37:45 Nick Taylor's Inclusion & Playing the Youth Movement

40:35 Keith on the PGA Tour's Future Schedule Changes (LACC & Sleepy Hollow)

44:50 The Ultimate Fix: Should the Presidents Cup Become Co-Ed?

47:45 Solheim Cup 2026 Preview: Team Europe vs. Team USA Picks

49:35 Megan Kang, Rose Zhang & Team Dynamics in the Netherlands

50:50 Omega European Masters Preview: Crans-sur-Sierre Breakdown

52:00 Pat Mayo's Outright Bets: Penge, Puig, Zanotti, Girrbach

52:45 Field Breakdown: Patrick Reed’s Money Title Hunt & Harry Hall

54:35 First Round Leader Bets (Guido, Lawrence, Girrbach, Willett)

54:55 Tour Championship TV Ratings & Year-End Thoughts

56:20 Wrap-Up & Member Feed Announcement



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SHOPIFY — With Shopify, nothing stands between your idea and a real business. So go make it one. Start your free trial at SHOPIFY.COM/patmayo



Message and data rates apply. Must be 18+ (21+MA & AZ, 19+ AL, NE) and present in a state where Underdog Fantasy operates. Terms apply. Concerned with your play? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit www.ncpgambling.org; AZ: 1-800-NEXT-STEP (1-800-639-8783) or text NEXT-STEP to 53342; NY: Call the 24/7 HOPEline at 1-877-8-HOPENY or Text HOPENY (467369)

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Pat Mayo, Geoff Feinberg, and Keith Stewart (ReadTheLine.com) break down the 2026 Presidents Cup Captain's Picks, recap the Golf Channel selection show disaster, debate Team USA and International team roster fits, discuss how to fix the event, and preview the Omega European Masters with outrights and FRL bets.



Get 25% off the Rabbit Hole at https://betspertsgolf.com/mayo with code “MAYO”



Use code “MAYO” at underdog and make a $5 Pick’em entry and instantly get $50 in your account



Get a Deposit BONUS Coolbet: https://shorturl.at/CHfyW



Join Keith’s Newsletter: https://www.readtheline.com/subscribe/



Subscribe, Rate and Review

Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes

Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH



FOLLOW MAYO MEDIA NETWORK

Newsletter: https://mayomedia.substack.com/

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mayomedianetwork/

TIK TOK: https://www.tiktok.com/discover/mayo-media-network

YOUTUBE: https://bit.ly/YTMMN



⛳ PME Omega European Masters Bets



WINNER



Marco Penge — 22/1

David Puig — 45/1

Fabrizio Zanotti — 110/1 (Each-Way: 8 Places)

Joel Girrbach — 110/1 (Each-Way: 8 Places)



First Round Leader (FRL) Bets



Guido Migliozzi — 60/1

Thriston Lawrence — 66/1

Joel Girrbach — 80/1

Danny Willett — 100/1





CHAPTERS



0:00 INTRO

0:35 Presidents Cup Selection Show: An Absolute Disaster

1:40 Why Did the Captain's Picks Show Need 90 Minutes?

3:05 Pat’s Radical Fix for the Selection Broadcast

4:25 Reality TV Tropes & Presidents Cup Identity Crisis

5:50 Was Brandt Snedeker Bullied into the Jackson Koivun Pick?

7:05 The Ryder Cup vs. Presidents Cup Connection & Jim Furyk

8:20 Does Jacob Bridgeman Actually Fit Medinah No. 3?

9:15 Finding Team USA Pairings: Who Plays with Scottie Scheffler?

14:05 Analyzing Team USA’s 6 Captain’s Picks

15:20 The Jacob Bridgeman Controversy: Over/Under 1.5 Future Cups?

16:45 Team USA Roles: Alternate Shot, Fourball & Pod Structure

18:50 Why Bridgeman Over Ryan Gerard? Floor vs. Ceiling Debate

21:10 Betting the Presidents Cup: USA Odds & Montreal 2024 Flashbacks

22:15 Ryan Gerard's Case, Ball-Striking & Medinah Setups

24:10 Medinah Official Scorecard: Par 70, 7,548 Yards & Bomb-and-Gouge

25:35 Why Didn't They Pick Driving Distance (Thorbjornsen/Brennan)?

28:10 Koivun's Ceiling & Snedeker's Analytical Strategy

29:00 Why Was Jake Knapp Completely Overlooked?

30:05 Team Europe's Ryder Cup Adare Manor Gathering

31:10 International Team Rosters & Color Scheme Slander

32:05 The Challenge of Multilingual Team Dynamics

32:35 Christian Bezuidenhout's Pick & The Singles Matchups Loophole

34:05 Why Didn't Mike Weir Target Younger International Talent?

36:30 Medinah Redesign: The 16th Hole & Raw Distance Requirements

37:45 Nick Taylor's Inclusion & Playing the Youth Movement

40:35 Keith on the PGA Tour's Future Schedule Changes (LACC & Sleepy Hollow)

44:50 The Ultimate Fix: Should the Presidents Cup Become Co-Ed?

47:45 Solheim Cup 2026 Preview: Team Europe vs. Team USA Picks

49:35 Megan Kang, Rose Zhang & Team Dynamics in the Netherlands

50:50 Omega European Masters Preview: Crans-sur-Sierre Breakdown

52:00 Pat Mayo's Outright Bets: Penge, Puig, Zanotti, Girrbach

52:45 Field Breakdown: Patrick Reed’s Money Title Hunt & Harry Hall

54:35 First Round Leader Bets (Guido, Lawrence, Girrbach, Willett)

54:55 Tour Championship TV Ratings & Year-End Thoughts

56:20 Wrap-Up & Member Feed Announcement



HELIX SLEEP — Go to helixsleep.com/mayo for 27% Off Sitewide Exclusive for listeners of Pat Mayo Experience.



MOMENTOUS -- Try Momentous Signature Spec Creatine at livemomentous.com and use code PATMAYO for up to 35% off your entire first order.



CARGURUS — Buy or sell your next car today with CarGurus at cargurus.com



SHOPIFY — With Shopify, nothing stands between your idea and a real business. So go make it one. Start your free trial at SHOPIFY.COM/patmayo



Message and data rates apply. Must be 18+ (21+MA & AZ, 19+ AL, NE) and present in a state where Underdog Fantasy operates. Terms apply. Concerned with your play? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit www.ncpgambling.org; AZ: 1-800-NEXT-STEP (1-800-639-8783) or text NEXT-STEP to 53342; NY: Call the 24/7 HOPEline at 1-877-8-HOPENY or Text HOPENY (467369)

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.