Lloyd's List: The Shipping Podcast

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The half-year outlook 2025: Containers
EVERY year, Lloyd’s List publishes two sets of markets outlooks. One at the end of the year and one mid-way through. Disruption and uncertainty have been synonymous with container shipping in recent years. So far, 2025 has seen more of the same — and, well, the only certainty at this stage is that this is unlikely to change through to December. US trade policies under Trump 2.0 have dominated proceedings in the opening months of the year, with the industry, like everyone else, second-guessing the president and his administration’s next move in an unpredictable game of yo-yo tariffs being played out on the global stage. This week’s episode of the Lloyd’s List Podcast takes a look at the container sector’s year so far in 2025, and offers some insight into what the next six months might hold for the market amid tariff uncertainty and increasing geopolitical tensions. Joining Joshua Minchin on this week ‘s episode are: Linton Nightingale, Lloyd’s List deputy editor Neil Dekker, Infospectrum senior analyst
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19:41
Buying ships in 2025: what the average owner needs to think about
This episode of the Lloyd's List Podcast was brought to you by Wirana - visit www.wirana.com/ for more information THERE are tens of thousands of shipowners in the world, but only a handful of them can be properly be classified as major players. Much of the content of Lloyd’s List naturally focuses on the MSCs, Frontlines and Maersk’s of this world, whose fleet lists run to the hundreds. When they want to pick up some newbuildings or even to buy one of their rivals, they have few problems finding the finance. Banks refer to them as tier one clients and actively court their business, on preferential terms. But the mean average owner is probably a family-owned businesses with maybe half a dozen ships and the median average operator will have perhaps a few dozen. These kinds of guys are the backbone of our industry. Historically, they didn’t have too hard a time of time it either. Until the early years of this century, many European banks were up to their neck in ship finance and indeed, some were devoted to it entirely. This was the era of what was known as relationship banking. Shipping bankers actually understood shipping, including its cyclical nature. Owners with a sensible business plan, maybe backed by long-term charter employment, and a decent equity stake could usually negotiate a sustainable mortgage. This lost age disappeared with the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008, when European banks largely quit the scene. In the following decade, private equity moved in and made a small fortune, but only by starting with a large one. Chinese leasing deals became the preferred option – and sometimes the only option - for many. But their S&P choices face increasing constraints. New environmental regulations are coming in thick and fast, and there is still no agreement on what alternative fuels will be standard, or even available at all, a few years from now. Politics is always the wild card, and Trump’s decision to introduce hefty port fees on tonnage build in China or legally owned by Chinese lessors will have blindsided many. So if your surname is not Aponte or Fredriksen, how the heck do you make rational S&P decisions? Joining law and insurance editor David Osler this week are: Dagfinn Lunde, co-founder eshipfinance.com Kavita Shah, partner, Watson, Farley and Williams Costas Delaportas, chief executive, DryDel Shipping
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27:11
Who are the winners and losers of shipping’s decarbonised regulatory future?
Who are the winners and losers of shipping’s decarbonised regulatory future? by Lloyd's List
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41:16
Why shipping is sounding more bullish on short- and long-term risk factors
What does China’s unassailable lead in terms of naval power, the wording of recent US statutes and the adaptability of shipping, all have to do with how a chief financial officer eats their breakfast? It’s all about how shipping perceives risk and uncertainty right now. Uncertainty has dominated the shipping industry in the past months. But this narrative that shipowners are paralysed by the geopolitical volatility is only part of the story. The global economy is at a crossroads. We are entering an era of superpower rivalry between the US and China that will fundamentally upend established trading assumptions and fragment shipping down geopolitical lines. Now, depending on who you are talking to, the response to that uncertainty results in either a barely concealed fist-bump of joy as they mentally run through the profitable opportunities ahead, or near term paralysis as they conclude that there is no value in strategic investment in the face of such unknowable odds. And that’s because this isn’t just the long -term disintegration of a rules-based order that we are talking about, although that is part of it. Near term that uncertainty is created by the fact that it is now security not economics that is driving the bus when it comes to US decision making, and that’s confusing everyone. Agility is the new currency for shipping. We have to adapt to all these challenges – shipping’s bullish elite told us. Volatility is the lifeblood of profitable shipping and certainty has never been a prerequisite for making decisions. So, why complain about exogenous shocks now? On stage, the message was defiant: shipowners paralysed by the geopolitical swings risk losing out. Off stage, their commitment to specific questions of progress and investment was generally more hesitant. But they still need to make decisions – and that’s the focus of this week’s podcast. Joining Richard this week on the podcast are: Øystein Tunsjø, Professor of International Relations, Head of Security in Asia Program, Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, Norwegian Defence University College Brian Maloney, Partner, Seward & Kissel Annicken Kildahl, CFO, Grieg Maritime Group Hing Chao, Executive Chairman, Wah Kwong Maritime Transport
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21:32
How to find a commercial carbon advantage in shipping
Efficiency is good business. Forget any lofty notions of environmental altruism for the moment. Burning less fuel, emitting less CO2 that just makes sense financially speaking. Except, that in shipping, inefficiency can often bring opportunity. Arbitrage and trading optionality is often a bigger, more profitable pull away from strict notions of carbon reduction. Emissions regulation is about compliance not profit. And that has generally speaking been the attitude in shipping while we have been talking conceptually. But carbon pricing is no longer a distant regulatory threat — it’s already impacting shipping and trading, even if the majority of shipping is either not ready or in the case of 60% of you missed the first regulatory hurdle of submitting verified emissions reports. The European Union is leading the charge, with the EU Emission Trading System and FuelEU Maritime adding an estimated $6.1bn to industry costs in 2025 alone. The IMO’s Greenhouse Gas Fuel Intensity (GFI) measure is set to join the mix from 2028, driving up costs even further. Shipowners and charterers could be staring down a combined carbon bill approaching $50bn by 2030 in a business-as-usual scenario. These surging costs will ripple through supply chains, driving up freight rates, influencing fuel choices, and potentially reshaping global trade patterns. Carbon pricing has moved from a regulatory abstraction to an immediate financial reality and that’s what we are talking about in this edition of the Lloyd’s List podcast. We have two speakers who offer an instructive view on what is, and isn’t, happening right now. Sigmund Kyvik is the CEO of Siglar Carbon – a data-led business that offers emissions insights that cut carbon and costs. Robert Hvide Macleod is a former chief executive of tanker giant Frontline, but he’s also an active investor in Siglar and is someone who has spotted the financial opportunity in managing carbon efficiency.
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17:34