Irregular Warfare Podcast

Episode #167 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast grapples with the role cyberspace should play in the broader coercion toolkit. The conversation considers why cyber has remained a go-to tool for shaping adversary behavior even as research has cast doubt on its coercive effectiveness. We explore the practical challenges of signaling credibly in a secretive domain, unpacking what cases like the 2014 Sony Pictures hack and the discovery of Volt Typhoon reveal about cyber coercion in practice. Our guests close by discussing a fundamental question: if cyber isn’t the coercive silver bullet it’s often made out to be, what is cyber actually good for?

This episode is anchored in the article Minding the gap? The strategic logic of cyber coercion in theory and practice by Dr. Erica Lonergan.

Dr. Erica Lonergan is an Assistant Professor in the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, where she focuses on research and teaching related to emerging technologies, strategy, and international security. She was previously on the faculty at West Point, and also served as a Senior Director on the Cyberspace Solarium Commission. Erica's second book, Open Secrets: Power and Influence in Proxy Alliances, is forthcoming next month with Oxford University Press.

 

Dr. Michael Sulmeyer is a Professor of the Practice at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. Previously, he was the first Senate-confirmed Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy and the Principal Cyber Advisor to the Secretary of Defense. 

 

Alisa Laufer hosts this episode. Please reach out to the Irregular Warfare Podcast team with any questions about the episode or the broader mission of the show.

 

The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners to support the community of irregular warfare professionals. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn.

 

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for (always free!) access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources.

 

Support for the Irregular Warfare Podcast comes from Hadean, an AI company focused on synthetic environments for training, planning, and decision support. Learn more at hadean.com.

 

Support is also provided by Leidos, a company focused on cyber and technology innovation, intelligence analysis, and mission support. You can find more information about both IWI partners in the episode description. Learn more at leidos.com/intel.

 

All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of any government agency or of the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project. 

 

Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa

Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa

Summary

Why does providing aircraft so often fall short of building an effective air force? Retired Lieutenant General Anthony Rock, Michael Horowitz, and Tobias Switzer join Kyle Atwell to examine the gap between acquiring technology and turning it into military power. Drawing on Switzer’s RAND report, Build Partner Airpower, Not Air Forces, the conversation explores what American air advisors learned in Iraq and Afghanistan and what future missions should do differently.

The guests discuss the appeal of prestige aircraft, the organizational demands of modern aviation, and the case for affordable equipment that partners can put to use quickly. They examine dependence on contractors, the risks facing advisors, and the tension between building partner forces and planning a complete U.S. withdrawal. Throughout, they ask how policymakers should define success when useful combat capability may still require years of outside support.

Takeaways

Providing aircraft does not automatically create airpower. Effective capability also requires trained people, maintenance, logistics, doctrine, intelligence, and functioning bases.

Building a Western-style air force and generating useful combat airpower are different objectives, particularly during an ongoing insurgency.

Iraq and Afghanistan presented unusually difficult starting conditions, including war-damaged institutions, limited technical skills, and urgent operational demands.

Technology transfers should reflect a partner’s ability to absorb and employ equipment, not just its ability to acquire it.

Political loyalties, patronage, and rival institutions can undermine personnel decisions and create organizational barriers that outside advisors cannot control.

Prestige aircraft can appeal to partner leaders even when simpler platforms better meet immediate operational needs.

Switzer argues that “cheap, fast, and good enough” should guide aviation acquisitions for partners fighting insurgencies, with attention to availability, spare parts, and the problem at hand.

Arms transfers also shape strategic relationships. Partners may turn to competing suppliers when American equipment is unavailable or restricted.

Contractor maintenance and logistics may be enduring requirements rather than temporary bridges to full self-sufficiency.

Policymakers should reconcile withdrawal plans with the continuing support that partner aviation capabilities may need to remain effective.

Advisor and contractor protection is a strategic concern as well as a tactical one; casualties can erode the political support needed to sustain a mission.

American use of simpler aircraft could improve advisor proficiency and demonstrate their value to partners, particularly in permissive operating environments.

Militaries that define their missions around outcomes, encourage experimentation, and reward merit are better positioned to adopt new technologies.

Success should be assessed against explicit political and military objectives, distinguishing immediate battlefield effects, lasting capability, and strategic influence.

Preserving air-advising experience matters even when current priorities shift. Future advisors need access to earlier lessons before another crisis begins.

Guests

Lieutenant General Anthony Rock is a retired U.S. Air Force officer who led the Iraqi Training and Advisory Mission–Air Force and commanded the 321st Air Expeditionary Wing in Baghdad in 2011. He later served as Chief of the Office of the Defense Representative in Pakistan and as Inspector General of the Air Force.

Professor Michael Horowitz is the Richard Perry Professor and Director of Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania. His research examines military innovation and the adoption of new technologies. He is the author of The Diffusion of Military Power and served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Force Development and Emerging Capabilities from 2022 to 2024.

Colonel Tobias Switzer is an adjunct senior policy researcher at RAND and a retired U.S. Air Force officer. A former special operations helicopter pilot and combat aviation advisor, he commanded a NATO special operations advisor team supporting Afghanistan’s Special Mission Wing. He is the author of Build Partner Airpower, Not Air Forces and previously served as IWI’s Editorial Director.

Kyle Atwell is the host for episode 166. Please reach out to him with any questions about the episode or IWI. 

About the podcast

The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners to support the community of irregular warfare professionals. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn.

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for (always free!) access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources.

Support for the Irregular Warfare Podcast comes from Hadean, an AI company focused on synthetic environments for training, planning, and decision support. Learn more at hadean.com.

Support is also provided by Leidos, a company focused on cyber and technology innovation, intelligence analysis, and mission support. Learn more at leidos.com/intel.

All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of any government agency or of the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project.

 

Credits

Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa
Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa

Photo: An Iraqi air force trainee inspects a Cessna 208 Caravan during U.S.-supported flight training at Kirkuk, Iraq, November 10, 2008. U.S. Army photo by Sgt. 1st Class Marvin Daniels, Joint Combat Camera Center Iraq. DVIDS photo 129393. Public domain. Cropped to match the episode cover format.

U.S. military assistance often has a bad reputation, but it isn’t doomed to failure. This episode examines why security assistance succeeds with some partners and falls short with others, and what it takes to turn weapons and training into lasting military capability. Lieutenant General (Ret.) Charles Hooper, Dr. Richard Bennet, and Dr. Alexander Noyes are the guests.

Today’s episode explores how the United States can build effective military partners, drawing on Richard Bennet and Alexander Noyes’s book, War at Arm’s Length: How America Can Build Effective Partners Through Military Assistance (Yale University Press, 2026).

Our guests begin by asking what effectiveness means, when security assistance advances U.S. interests, and how Washington should assess the results. Bennet and Noyes explain the book’s central argument that shared security interests and capable defense institutions make assistance more likely to succeed. The discussion then examines how far sustained assistance and personal relationships can bring partners’ interests closer together, and how much alignment is needed at the outset. Drawing on cases including Ukraine and Colombia, the guests explore the importance of partners’ willingness to reform and the limits of externally imposed change. The episode closes with recommendations for choosing partners, coordinating U.S. assistance, and sequencing support so that institutions can sustain the capabilities Washington helps provide.

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Charles W. Hooper is Senior Counselor at The Cohen Group and a former director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency.  In this role, he led the agency responsible for the sale of all US weapons, military equipment, support services, and training packages to foreign governments, which included oversight of 20,000 people globally and over $50 billion in annual sales. During his 41-year military career, he served as the Senior U.S. Defense Official in Egypt, U.S. Defense Attaché to China, and Director of Strategy, Plans, and Programs at US Africa Command and Deputy Director for Strategic Planning and Policy at US Indo-Pacific Command. He speaks fluent Mandarin and is a graduate of West Point and Harvard’s Kennedy School.

Dr. Richard Bennet is a senior research associate at the Center for International and Security Studies in the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. His work examines strategic competition and the effectiveness of defense activities, drawing on experience coordinating assessments and program evaluation at multiple U.S. combatant commands. He earned his doctorate in war studies at King’s College London and is coauthor of War at Arm’s Length.

Dr. Alexander Noyes is a fellow in the Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology at the Brookings Institution and coauthor of War at Arm’s Length. From 2021 to 2023, he served as a senior advisor and then deputy director in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy, leading efforts to evaluate security cooperation and providing policy oversight for institutional capacity building programs. He earned his doctorate at the University of Oxford.

Alexandra Chinchilla is the host for this episode. Please reach out to her with any questions about the episode or IWI.

The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners to support the community of irregular warfare professionals. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn.

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for (always free!) access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources.

All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of any government agency or of the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project.

Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa

Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa

Episode 164 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast grapples with the hidden costs of precision warfare, looking at how drone strikes affect civilian populations well beyond their immediate lethal footprint. Anchored in a study using twelve billion geocoded cell phone records from Yemen, the conversation explores how drone strikes trigger sharp spikes in civilian mobility and communication—disruptions on a scale comparable to major natural disasters—even when no civilians are physically harmed. Our guests unpack what these findings mean for the strategic logic of precision airpower and discuss the tension between tactical accuracy and perceived legitimacy on the ground. 

 

The article is here: Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records

 

Dr. Aidan Milliff is an assistant professor of political science at The Ohio State University. His research examines how people interpret and respond to political violence. Aidan earned his PhD from MIT, where he was a member of the Security Studies Program.

 

Lieutenant Colonel Paul Lushenko, PhD, is a globally recognized expert on artificial intelligence, autonomy, drones, and counter-drone warfare and currently serves as Chief Strategist for the U.S. military’s counter-drone efforts. He is retiring from the U.S. Army after more than two decades of leadership, including extensive service in Special Operations Forces, and is the author of four books and dozens of peer-reviewed articles. His work as both a scholar and practitioner has helped shape the international debate on emerging technologies, autonomy, drones, and the future of warfare.

 

Alisa Laufer hosts this episode with Alexandra Chinchilla. Please reach out to the Irregular Warfare Podcast team with any questions about the episode or the broader mission of the show.

 

The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners to support the community of irregular warfare professionals. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn.

 

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for (always free!) access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources.

 

All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of any government agency or of the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project. 

 

Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa

Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa

This episode of the Irregular Warfare Podcast concludes our four-part Future of War series, pairing author and futurist August Cole with senior special operations leaders to explore how tomorrow’s conflicts may unfold.

Today’s episode centers on Operation Lightning, a near-future story by P.W. Singer and August Cole that imagines Army Rangers operating across a truly global battlefield. Set during a large-scale conflict with China in 2039, the story follows a four-person Ranger reconnaissance element infiltrating a Chinese space facility in Antarctica. Rather than destroy the facility, the Rangers covertly corrupt its surveillance data, blinding Chinese sensors and creating an opening for a Ranger task force thousands of miles away to seize a critical airfield in the Indo-Pacific.

Joining the discussion are Lieutenant General Gil Ferguson, Commanding General of U.S. Army Special Operations Command (USASOC), and Command Sergeant Major David Waldo, USASOC’s senior enlisted leader. Together with Cole, they examine how Army Special Operations Forces can contribute to the joint force during large-scale combat—and how small, distributed teams can create strategic effects across theaters and domains.

At the conclusion of the episode, listeners will hear a professionally narrated reading of Operation Lightning, bringing to life one possible vision of Army Special Operations Forces in the conflicts of the late 2030s.

Ben Jebb is the host for this episode. Please reach out to Ben a with any questions about this episode or the Irregular Warfare Podcast.

The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners in the field of irregular warfare. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn.

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources.